Saturday, April 1, 2017

Final 4: The Picks

South Carolina vs. Gonzaga

Entering the tournament, South Carolina was one of the weaker offensive teams. Inefficient mixed with poor shooting. During the tournament, they've had 4 of their most efficient games of the year. They were helped by playing two weak defensive teams early but in regional weekend, they played two very good defensive teams.

On the flip side, they haven't played a team as good on defense as the Zags. Why? Well, the Zags have the most efficient defense in the nation. The Zags have also faced two teams in West Virginia and Northwestern that make you uncomfortable on offense like Carolina will try and do.

I've continually picked against South Carolina, fully expecting their offense to do them in. It hasn't but I'm stubborn. 

Gonzaga 67 South Carolina 59

North Carolina vs. Oregon

Is Joel Berry fully healthy? That's the key question. If he can't go, Oregon has a much better chance of winning. 

KenPom has Carolina as a 2-pt favorite. Oregon has the horses to match the athleticism of Carolina. Oregon has enough size. Oregon also has better effective defensive and offensive fg%. Carolina will have opportunities for second chance points. That could be the difference in a close game.

Everyone assumes Carolina is the team to beat this weekend. They called their game against Kentucky a de facto title game. It wasn't. 

The Pick: Oregon 76 North Carolina 73

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