The Final

Villanova's win over Oklahoma on Saturday was about as impressive a performance I've ever seen during a Final 4 sober. Carolina put in a workman-like effort and held off Syracuse. A late first half surge put the game in Carolina's control.

Villanova enters the game 1st in KenPom and Carolina enters 2nd. That rarely happens. The last I can find is the 2008 title game between Kansas and Memphis. Nova has a 56% win probability. UNC opened as a 1.5 favorite.

Carolina has the size advantage but interestingly enough, if we use KenPom's effective height metric, Iowa was bigger and Miami is just below UNC. Villanova annihilated those teams. Carolina is a different animal because they're more athletic. Carolina is going to get their share of second chance baskets and limit Villanova. But don't assume Villanova is going to fold at the Tar Heel length.

Villanova has been shooting lights out. North Carolina isn't a very good shooting team but hasn't needed to be. Villanova can't afford a 30% night from 3. With so many options playing with confidence, I think they'll shoot well enough. Don't underestimate their defense either. It's been stifling during this run.

Heart says Villanova. Brain says UNC length wins out.

The Pick: North Carolina 81 Villanova 79