Villanova vs. Oklahoma
A lot of college basketball writers/reporters ate crow last weekend. Villanova? Can't get past the opening weekend! Shoot too many 3's! Oklahoma? Too many jump shooters! Buddy Hield can't do it alone! That was fun.
Villanova is a 3-pt favorite with a 62% win probability at KenPom. That's pretty substantial for a Final 4 game. Especially in a game where at first blush, these teams look evenly matched. Nova is 4th in AdjustedO and 7th in AdjustedD. The Sooners are 13th in both.
Nova's biggest weakness is offensive rebounding and getting to the foul line. Well, Oklahoma's weakness is defensive rebounding. They don't foul, so Nova probably wasn't getting to the line anyway. Oklahoma doesn't force turnovers, Nova doesn't commit them.
Villanova was more impressive last weekend in that they won with an incredible offensive performance on Thursday and then a brilliant defensive performance on Saturday. That's not to take away from Oklahoma who whipped both Texas A&M and Oregon. Villanova's wins over Miami and Kansas were just better.
I won't dismiss what may ultimately matter most tomorrow, and that's Buddy Hield. He's been so damn fun this tournament. Villanova stopped Perry Ellis cold in the Elite 8. They'll need another effort like that. Hield is so quick and good at getting open. And his release is so quick. How does Nova neutralize him? Or do they? Ultimately, it might just be Nova saying get yours, no one else is getting any.
Reid Forgrave commented how loose and how much fun it looks like Oklahkma is having. I've been saying that about Villanova since January. I don't think the moment will be too big for either squad. This could be a game for the ages.
Pick: Villanova 78 Oklahoma 75
North Carolina vs. Syracuse
Carolina is a healthy 7-point favorite with a 74% win probability. They have more depth and a much efficient offense than Syracuse. UNC is first. Syracuse is 50th.
Carolina shot the 3 brilliantly against Indiana and then only went 4-13 against Notre Dame. Can they get it inside against the zone? Will it matter? Carolina is 3rd in offensive rebounding. Syracuse is 337th in defensive rebounding. Carolina's length should give Syracuse issues. Carolina really isn't reliant on the 3. Cuse will have to deny the post where Carolina eats.
Carolina swept Syracuse this year, winning by 9 at the Carrier Dome and then by 5 at the Dean Dome, scoring 83 and 75 in each game. If they get to 80 again, they won't lose.
Before the prediction, I have to comment on two things. First, the performance by Syracuse in the 2nd half against Virginia last Sunday may have been the best 15 minutes of college basketball this year. The Orange were patient and fast and didn't turn it over once in that stretch. They pressed as well as any team you've seen press this year, not only forcing turnovers but forcing tempo on a team that despite what Seth Davis says, can't play at tempo. When Virginia cleared the press, they took quick shots they weren't use to. On offense, the Orange were patient and waited to clear space and let their athletic ability defeat less athletic players. It was a clinic on how to beat slow teams and a joy to watch. Virginia unraveled in the face of adversity because Syracuse had better basketball players and talent won.
Second point is, the noise around this game about the NCAA and it's governance is deserved. I don't have an answer how to "fix" the NCAA other than destroy it and eliminate the American obsession with the idea of amateurism. I'll have a post-season write up about the future of college athletics and conferences and it won't be much fun going forward, at least in my opinion, so enjoy the tournament and even this matchup. I think the future is worse than the present and the reasoning the road were on is really dumb. Anyway, the pick is
North Carolina 80 Syracuse 66
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