Brian and I not agree neither of these teams are really 7 and 8 seeds. Both teams have NBA players and are supremely talented. Both also had some bad, blowout losses during the course of the season. UConn has been damn impressive in the run to the title game. Arguably, their toughest game was the opener against St. Joe's. Kentucky has played 4 thrillers, a run that has undoubtedly left its faithful emotionally spent.
Whoever wins this game will join 2011 UConn as the least likely champion of the KenPom era. Kentucky enters 9th (6th AdjO, 44th AdjD). UConm enters 10th (37th AdjO, 10th Adj D). Here is what past champs have looked like.
2013: Louisville, 1st (4th AdjO, 3rd AdjD)
2012: Kentucky, 1st (2,8)
2011: UConn, 9th (18,13) - OSU, 1st
2010: Duke, 1st (1,8)
2009: UNC, 1st (1,21)
2008: Kansas, 1st (2,1)
2007: Florida, 1st (1,17)
2006: Florida, 1st (3,6)
2005: UNC, 2nd (2,12) - Illinois, 1st
2004: UConn, 2nd (9,5) - Duke, 1st
2003: Syracuse, 5th (14,13) - Pitt, 1st
Really, it could be argued by the numbers this would be the weakest champ of them all but there is so much talent on these teams, that argument seems ridiculous. Both teams simply found their way late in the season where we didn't have a dominant team.
Arizona and Florida took turns at 1 & 2 on KP for most of the season. Arizona had bad luck losing Brandon Ashley and Florida was very good but short on NBA talent. Both would have been deserving champions but wouldn't have been among the best of recent memory. Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised teams as talented as UConn and Kentucky made their way through the field.
UConn beat a good Villanova team and an undermanned Iowa State team. Their last two wins have been impressive, beating two teams who many saw as potential champs.
Kentucky's gamut has been impressive as well. Kentucky's last 4 wins were all over teams capable of winning it all, Wichita State, Louisville, Michigan & Wisconsin. All were classic games that will live on in Kentucky lore for generations. You may not like them, but if you weren't entertained, find a new game.
As for this game, it's a toss up on KenPom. Kentucky is a 1-pt favorite after being dogs in its last 4 games. That's how crazy this season has been.
My pick? No idea. I'll just say:
Kentucky 70 UConn 69
Note? I've picked against UConn the last two rounds. Congrats, UConn
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