Wednesday, April 9, 2014

2013-14 and What We Learned or Not

It's pretty remarkable UConn now has 4 titles in the last 15 years. That's as many titles as Duke, more than Kansas, Louisville & Michigan State. Only UCLA, Kentucky, Indiana and North Carolina have more. When Kevin Ollie took the job, my first reaction was UConn had seen its best days. I suppose its possible this is still the case since key players were Calhoun recruits but with a National Championship in his back pocket and his NBA pedigree, I think Ollie and UConn will continue to be a force. Whatever the case, by Monday night, UConn was playing as good as anyone had all season. I can't think of another backcourt in the nation that could have handled Napier and Boatright.

As for Kentucky, it took them a while to figure things out but they played very well in March. They definitely had their share of luck but the level at which they played was quite high from Wichita State on. John Calipari's March record is pretty good at Kentucky. The 2011 team made the Final 4 as a 4-seed knocking off Ohio State, KenPom #1 along the way. I'm not sure having Willie Cauley-Stein would have mattered but not having him didn't help. Sounds like a good chunk of his players are NBA bound. Don't cry. They have a great class in 2014, too.

This season was a return to parity. Not to take anything away from the teams in the Final 4, but none would have matched some previous champs. Florida was the best team entering the tournament but lacked NBA talent. Arizona would have been interesting had Brandon Ashley stayed healthy but they, like Florida, lacked a dynamic offense. Both were efficient but hardly explosive. Louisville was a very good team by the end of the year but couldn't match Kentucky's overall talent, blowing a late lead in the Sweet 16. Other conference champs all had major flaws. Michigan was a dynamic offense with a questionable defense. Virginia was the polar opposite. Kansas was uber-talented similar to Kentucky. The Joel Embiid injury dampened their chances but even with him, they were prone to inconsistency. By the end of the year, the Kentucky youngsters looked like a better "team". Villanova, like Florida lacked NBA talent and couldn't matchup against the UConn guards.

The ACC was a mess this season. Duke couldn't guard and UNC was inconsistent, plagued early by personnel issues. Virginia rose to the top and was impressive in doing so. Syracuse won a lot of close games early to jump out to an early #1 ranking. By time Dayton knocked them out, Syracuse was a team reeling. Pitt did Pitt things. Computer loved bit never as good as what the numbers said. The rest of the conference was mediocre or awful. Adding Louisville helps for next season. Duke and Carolina should be much better in 2015.

The A-10 rode Dayton to the Elite 8 and have some young coaching stars in Shaka Smart and Archie Miller. St. Louis will take a step back. The conference will be fun again in 2015. Keep an eye on Rhode Island next season.

The first year of the new Big East was uneven as pre-season favorites Georgetown and Marquette struggled. Creighton will definitely fall back in 2015. Seton Hall should take a leap and Providence loses Bryce Cotton but gets Kris Dunn back. Villanova looks to be the only top-25 team for next year. As of today, the conference has a lot of talent scheduled to come in next year.

The Big 12 had a great season but a bad March, not sending any teams to the Elite 8 and only 2 to the Sweet 16. Kansas will remain the alpha dog. Can anyone knock them off next season? Iowa State loses Melvin Ejim and DeAndre Kane but still have a lot of talent in Ames. Don't count them out. I like Texas a lot in 2015, too. West Virginia will be a team to watch early along with Oklahoma.

The Big 10 was statistically the best conference but I thought they were a bit overrated. They got their top 3 teams to the Elite 8 so they certainly showed their strength. Barring some unforeseen decisions, Wisconsin will be atop 5 team. Michigan shapes up as the second best team, assuming GR3 comes back. The conference will take a step back as Ohio State and Michigan State figure to be lesser teams. In fact Nebraska may open in the top 3. Northwestern may be the surprise team. Maryland joins and could be a tourney team but lost 3 players to transfers yesterday. Odd happenings there.

Even with their losses, Florida will be among the favorites in the SEC along with Kentucky. I like Georgia next year as a team to watch. Auburn will be interesting, too with Bruce Pearl there. He should get some players late to make them competetive. Tennessee saved their season late but will be hard pressed to repeat that in 2015. It'll also probably be a make or break season in Missouri and Arkansas.

Arizona won the Pac-12 and will be favored again in 2015. UCLA won't be far behind and I really like Utah next year. Utah was pretty unlucky in 2014 and were a victim of a terrible non-con schedule. Stanford should build on their Sweet 16. Johnny Dawkins has a real nice class coming in. Oregon a times, was as good as anyone in the west but also played as bad as anyone in the west. They should be in the mix as well.

Finally, the American Athletic claims this seasons National Champ in UConn. They lose Louisville and Cincinnati loses 3 key contributors. The favorite in 2014 will be SMU. Larry Brown came up short in 2014 but won't next season. Memphis will be gooad as well but the natives are getting restless with Josh Pastner. He'll have to get to the 2nd weekend sooner than later. Kelvin Sampson returns to college hoops with Houston. They'll be interesting next year. South Florida hired Orlando Antigua after the Steve Masiello fiasco. Not sure that's a big difference. They won't be a contender next year but don't be surprised if they are in a year or two.

Way too early Final 4 for 2015 in Indianapolis:

1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Arizona
4. SMU

Congrats to UConn! Time for 2014-15 yet?

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