Early Season Surprise: Illinois

After letting go of Bruce Weber, Illini fans had visions of Brad Stevens or Shaka Smart dancing through their heads. After flirtations with both of those coaches, Illinois eventually hired Ohio Bobcat coach, John Groce. Groce had taken Ohio to the Sweet 16 last year.

At the time, sports radio in Chicago was lukewarm on the hire largely bemoaning not getting Shaka Smart. My reaction at the time was more positive. Groce had been a successful assistant at Ohio State, being the lead recruiter on most of the Buckeyes recent stars. The concern was whether or not Groce could recruit in Chicago and repair a fractured relationship between Chicago HS and the Illini program. That's still up for debate but a 10-0 start for a team picked to finish in the bottom half of the B1G shows the man can coach.

Here's a quick look at what Illinois is doing better this season (I know it's a small sample but the trend is encouraging).

Illinois is 17th in ADJ O this season. They finished last season 126th. They're down on the defensive side from 39th to 67th but the increased efficiency on offense is a more telling stat.

2011-12 FOUR FACTORS Offense Defense
Effective FG %: 49.4 -156th 49.2 -181st
Turnover %: 20.6 -191st 20.4 -160th
Offensive Rebounding %: 31.3 -206th 29.0 -55th
FTA/FGA: 30.4 -309th 36.2 -174th



2012-13 FOUR FACTORS Offense Defense
Effective FG %: 54.6 -23rd 47.9 -163rd
Turnover %: 18.1 -55th 23.5 -71st
Offensive Rebounding %: 35.4 -86th 33.2 -203rd
FTA/FGA: 29.7 -284th 34.9 -147th

A lot of this offensive improvement is due to the better play of Brandon Paul. Not many players have vexed Illini fans more than him. After shooting 39% last year, he's now shooting 48.1%. His 3-pt shooting is better as well up from 33.3% vs. 41.2% this year. His effective FG% is up from 46% to 58%.

It's early and the B1G will be a SEC -like meat grinder but Illinois has been much better and a win at Gonzaga is not a fluke.