Bubble Carnage

 I've already made it clear the bubble this year is extremely gross and yesterday proved my point even further.  3 of my 4 10  seeds loss with only Missouri surviving out of that group.  Auburn is probaly going to drop all the way out, especially if Ohio State wins today.  UCLA and Texas A&M should only drop to an 11 seed with UCLA more safe than A&M.  On the 11 seed line both California and San Diego State lost. San Diego St. will just flip with the team they lost to, New Mexico, who was my first team out.  California lost at home to a bad Pittsburgh team so that is not only a drop out but possibly down to the next four out.

As for the First Four Out, both Virginia Tech and USC lost while Seton Hall and Oklahoma State both lost from the Next Four Out.  Indiana and Ohio State have big opportunities today while VCU stays alive.

Teams are playing themselves into the NIT at this point.

Patriot Fun Belt

Patriot-

The Patriot League begins their March to a conference champ beginning Tuesday. All games are played at the higher seed.

Make no bones about it, Navy is the prohibitive favorite, the only team with a positive AdjEM and nearly + 9 on American and +10 on Lehigh and Boston. Navy might win a tourney game, anyone else is likely a 16.

Navy is 135 in KenPom, American is next closest at 240. American did beat Navy by 14 in the regular season. Navy swept all other Patriot League teams, though they needed 2 overtimes at Lehigh and overtime at Colgate.

Wild and concerning stat: opponents only make 29.3% of 3’s against Navy but 45% of all opponent shots come from 3. So…if Boston were to beat them because they’re a really good 3-point shooting team, you shouldn’t be surprised.

The pick is Navy still but that wild and concerning stat is something. 

Sun Belt-

This wasn’t a banner year in the Sun Belt. There isn’t a definitive favorite as they tip off in Pensacola beginning Tuesday.

Only 2 teams have positive AdjEM, Troy at +0.90 and Arkansas State at +1.71. Only 5 teams are top-200 in KenPom. Arkansas State is 143 which is worse than Navy. And 3 of the 5 are 185, 195 and 198. There isn’t a team that screams bracket buster.

I think any of the top 9 can win this. Troy won the league at 12-6 and then there are 6 teams at 11-7. Want to live stupidly, gamble on this bracket.

The league wants Troy or Arkansas State to win. One of them might accidentally win a game in the big dance. I’ll take Arkansas State because they play ridiculously fast and love turning it over but rebound like mad men on the offensive side. 345th on offensive turnover % and 11th in offensive rebounding %. That’s the kind of team you want to see in March, fun and dumb which might be what this conference tournament is.