Tier 1 - Definitely Can Win It All
Arizona - Yes. Wildly good. 4th best offense, 6th best defense. Will get tested weekly in the Big XIIIIII. Would be my pick today.
Iowa State - I was wrong about the offense. 4th best 3-point shooting team in the nation lead by Milan Momcilovic. 71.6 effective fg%, 54% from 3. Bad FT shooting team but the rest of the offense is best it’s been in TJO era. Not good today, though. Sloppy game at Cincinnati.
Michigan - Defense has come back to earth last two weeks. UW-Madison dragged the bigs out and outshot them. We’ll see how they adjust as I’m sure others will copy that game plan. Not sure this is the best team in the Big 18. Still very good.
Houston - Don’t trust the offense. Mediocre shooting team. Final 4 good, don’t believe they can win it all.
UConn - Offense isn’t good enough and the league won’t test them enough.
Tier 2 - Need to see more, flawed
Duke - Final 4 good. Probably doesn’t shoot the 3 well enough.
Gonzaga - Solid in all phases except FT shooting. Will go through the motions until the tourney. I know FT shooting in the advanced stat era is a shoulder shrug of concerns but they’ll play in a lot of blowouts until the tourney. That FT concern will be an issue in a close tourney game.
Tier 3 - Underrated? Maybe?
Purdue - Absolutely good enough offensively, defense is good but not great. Can Daniel Jacobsen stay on the court and be a menace inside? Still developing. If he takes a step, could help make defense better.
Illinois - See Purdue. Great offense. Good but not great defense. Game at Purdue next week should be fun.
Vanderbilt - Top 15 efficient offense and defense. 15th and 21st entering at effective fg% on offense and defense. Is it sustainable? Texas beat them 80-64 and Florida has 86 through 35 minutes. Whatever the case, Mark Byington is establishing himself as hot commodity.
Tier 4 - Confused
Nebraska - 15th in KenPom and undefeated on 1-17 from a major conference should confuse you. 3 one possession wins in league play. Some luck. League schedule is pretty manageable.
BYU - Final 4 good, not good enough as of today to win it all.
Florida - Look good at Vandy. Not good enough shooting team. 152nd offensive effective fg%, 353rd in 3-point shooting. 37.5% from 3 today is 10% higher than year average.
Texas Tech - Not good enough defensively.
Tier 5 - Frauds
Michigan State - 58th offensively in KenPom. Not good enough at all. Best rebounding team in America, though.
North Carolina - Projected to go 10-8 in league play. Not a chance they’re a contender for anything other than a bid.
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