UCF

Earlier today, UCF hosted and beat Texas Tech, 88-82 to move to 17-4 overall, and 6-3 in the Big XIIIIII. Let’s learn about Johnny Dawkins hoopers.

Only 45 in KenPom, UCF is probably not a threat to make much noise in March but given Dawkins was on the hot seat entering the year, a tourney bid would be a great result. They’re 31st in AdjustedO but 79th in AdjustedD. The D is 228th in effective fg%. Woof. Other than defensive rebounding, this is a mediocre defense.

Offensively, they’re 20th in the nation shooting from 3 and a very good offensive rebounding team. Jordan Burks shoots 39% from 3 and Riley Kugel shoots 40% from 3. Carmelo Pachero is a low usage player who shoots 40% from 3. Winning more will revolve around them making 3’s. Bad shooting nights will doom them but they haven’t had many yet.

The schedule is manageable the remainder of the year. Trips to Houston and BYU remain. A win in one of these would go a long way to shoring up a bid. They do have games across the board against some bubbly teams, so a bid isn’t locked in.

Looking at their wins out of league, a win over Texas A&M is their best win. The schedule wasn’t daunting but the wins they have were against better than average mid-majors. Only 2-wins out of league were against sub-200 KenPom teams. It shouldn’t wow you but these were games you might have seen UCF lose in other seasons.

Brian has them as a 7-seed and that’s about right. They can get into that 4-6 range with a strong finish but feels more likely they stay in the 7-10 range.  I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if they end up on the bubble either but that doesn’t feel likely as the moment.  They’d prefer a 7 or 10 and I could see them shooting a 2-seed out of the gym in an upset. That’s the best case scenario but a scenario they’d have taken as the season begun.