Currently 26th overall in KenPom, if we did a blind resume, they’re not a second weekend team. A soft non-conference schedule where their best win is currently an overtime victory over Nevada, KenPom 56, hurts them. They have one other KenPom top-100 win and that’s against Nebraska. Their two-losses were by double digits. One was a double-digit loss this past Saturday at TCU which isn’t a bad loss. However, a 12-point loss at Butler in November was.
When we look at the numbers, nothing jumps out at you. They have the 40th best defensive turnover %. That’s their top number in four factors. Teams shoot less than 30% from 3 against them. If we believe the adage defensive 3-pt % often revolves around luck, a correction would be in order.
One thing they do well is pass. They have the nations 8th best assists/fgm rate. PG Marqkuis Nowell has the 2nd best assist rate in the nation at 43.3. The majority of their minutes are also played by upperclassmen outside Sophomore Cam Carter, a transfer from Mississippi State.
One other thing that stands out is, based on KenPom luck factor, the Wildcats are the 16th luckiest team in the nation. Interestingly, FAU and Charleston are top-30 in luck as well (So is UWM for the matter).
If we meander on over to Bart Torvik’s T-Rank and check similar resumes, none of the teams they most resemble from the past made it out of the first weekend. Things are a little brighter when we compare similar statistical profiles. They look like the 2018 FSU, an elite 8 team. However, that team was a 9-seed who beat a vastly overseeded 1-seed of Xavier that year.
Kansas State is a fun team. Kansas State is also a team that profiles as one that may regress and one that will get overseeded in March. They’ll get tested regularly in league. Let’s see how long the fun lasts.
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