Creighton vs. Gonzaga - Fun fact, in my mock tourney last year, I had the Zags knocking out Creighton in the Elite 8. What does that mean? Absolutely nothing. The Zags are 12 point favorites, with an 86% win chance per KenPom. Vegas is +13.
How does Creighton win? I don’t know. The Zags do everything really well. If Creighton can have one of those Creighton nights of can’t miss, then I suppose they have a chance but I don’t see it. Creighton plays much slower but they don’t play slow enough or have enough size to cause mismatches.
The Pick: Gonzaga 81 Creighton 66
Oregon vs. USC - Pac-12 on Pac-12 crime. Both looked very impressive in the second round. USC is favored by a bucket and a half and KenPom likes them by 4. They’ve also entered the stratosphere of teams that profile as national title winners. They’re up to 15th in AdjustedO and 5th in AdjustedD.
The Ducks defense is the weak link, 52nd in KenPom of this matchup. They’re just about average on defensive effective fg%. That hurts them because they don’t foul and force a decent amount of turnovers. On offense, they’re 25th in effective fg% and shoot 38% from 3, 12th best.
The Trojans counter defensively with the nations 7th best defensive effective fg% with their strength being in paint protection. They’re an average team guarding the 3-point line, so the Ducks have to hit 3’s to win. The Trojans are an efficient offense that crashes the offensive glass. They’re 12th in offensive rebounding. Oregon needs to be vigilant on defensive rebounding.
I think too much has to go right for Oregon in this game to win it but there’s definitely a path.
The Pick: USC 70 Oregon 63
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