Michigan State – The biggest fallacy in College Basketball is “Izzo is March”. He’s been dominate for 30 years, they say. I say, factually, it’s been 25 years since a Championship and it’s his only one. All those great players and nothing. Two generations of Richardson’s and a couple Final Fours. Lastly, and most importantly with this team, is the media keeps talking about how they hold teams to “8 points in the last 6 minutes” or “scoreless for the last 4 minutes”. What they don’t mention is they need to do that because they are losing before that. That will catch up with them in March. No stud and know one to carry the team on their back in the tough games.
Prediction: 2nd Round knockout
Michigan – Easiest to predict of them all. No point guard and tons of turnovers. The media hype the “double bigs” and they are
impressive, but Danny Wolf is running point and he’s not a super star. You need guards in March and they don’t got em'.
Prediction: 2nd Round Knockout but don’t rule out
a 1st round exist if they get a tough draw
Maryland – The Crab
Five. Love the nickname but that’s the
problem. All they have is 5
players. They are going to have to play maximum
minutes and in the condensed schedule that is hard. I think they are underrated but don’t have
the depth to go far.
Prediction: Sweet 16
Purdue – Up and Down, up and down. Looks dominant one game and lackluster the
next. They have 2 players and the third
is Fletcher Loyer. If Smith or Kaufmann
aren’t both humming along or Loyer doesn’t hammer out 6 triples they can’t
win. They are awful in the post and give
up a huge percentage of 2 pointers.
Prediction: 2nd round knockout
UCLA – They move from the Pac-12 and start to play like a 2016 Big
Ten team. Lack of talent and a horse to
carry them through a tough game. Will
muck it up to try to win and ride any one of 8 players. Can’t see them winning a couple. Have a hard time seeing them win 1.
Prediction: 1st Round loss
Oregon – I’ve watched this team and am impressed by
them. Nate Bittle is underrated but the
problem is his playing time. Either he
can’t play max minutes, or Dana Altman won’t let him. Guards are talented but it’s few and far
between when all 3 are above average.
Most of the time 1 is great, 1 is average, and 1 is god-awful. Currently I have this team projected as a 5
seed and they might get caught by a 12.
I think they squeak by and then beat a 4 seed.
Projection: Sweet Sixteen
Illinois – Ton’s of individual talent but no
cohesiveness. Can’t play as a team and
their stars try to “get theirs”. A good
defensive team, see Blue Devils, Duke, will shut them down. Meh.
Prediction: 1st round upset by a mid-major
Indiana – Hey, let rally around our fired coach and make a
run. Sounds nice. Dies in the first round when it’s real. Their Bigs are lazy and will be ready to
leave school on March 22.
Prediction: 1st Round loss
Ohio State: I hope they don’t make it. If they do it’s a First Four game and that
doesn’t count as a first-round game.
Prediction: Team watches 1st round at Buffalo
Wild Wings or a strip club
Nebraska: See Ohio State but worse. How are you 2-2 in Quad 3 games?
Prediction: NIT
And that leaves us with the 1 team that I think can make a
run.
Wisconsin – They didn’t look into it against Michigan State
and the Oregon game was a disaster, but this team has what it takes to make a
run. Good guards, including some who can
play defense or hit threes. Bigs who can
step out, hit the 3 and play in the post.
Some depth, at least enough to pick up the slack. Solid efficiency numbers, top 30 in both. And most importantly, a stud who can score 30
a game if you need it in John Tonje.
Even Blackwell can go for 22 to 24 if needed. The most complete Big Ten team. Good enough to make the Final Four, not to
win a championship.
Prediction: I want to
say Final Four, but I will settle for an Elite Eight.
Hope I can find time to write an SEC one. The ACC writes itself.
On Saturday, the America East and Big Sky begin their tournaments. Let’s do it.
America East- The America East holds all their conference tournament games at campus sites. Spoiler alert, Vermont is NOT the clear cut favorite this year. They finished second in conference behind Bryant. On top of that, the Catamounts finished with the 3rd best KenPom number at 226. Now, Maine was 225 but still.
Saying this, Vermont has won 9 in a row, including a win over Bryant. Bryant did win by 20 over Vermont early in conference play. Bryant’s resume is pretty trash. Whoever wins this league, seeding won’t be as good as Vermont has had at times.
Phil Martelli, Jr. coaches Bryant. This team pushes the tempo. Their two conference losses, they were held under 70. They won their other 14 games and scored over 70. Vermont plays slow. Like slow slow. I think they’re the pick because they can win either way, scoring and not scoring. Like the duality of man, the America East may come down to good and evil.
Big Sky- They’re playing this in Boise, home of the Gene Harris Jazz Festival. This is the best college football league typically and the hoops wasn’t bad this year either.
Montana and Northern Colorado both finished 15–3 in league and split their regular season matchups. NoCo is 132 in KenPom and Montana is 177. 3 other teams are top 200 but these two are the clear favorites.
Neither has a great non-con win. But both did beat South Dakota State. John Muir said:
“It’s always sunshine somewhere, the dew is never all dried at once; a shower is forever falling; vapor is ever rising. Eternal sunshine, eternal sunset, eternal dawn and gloaming, on sea and continents and islands, each its turn, as the round earth rolls.”
That’s why the pick is Northern Colorado.
The big news from yesterday is the jockeying for the last #1 seed. First it's Alabama, then it's Tennessee, now it's Florida. Resumes are very similar although I would put Florida behind the other 2 based on just that. Recency Bias squarely puts Florida as the last 1 seed. The last weekend and maybe the conference tournament decides it. Marquette lost to Connecticut and they are going to be a 5/6 seed ripe for an upset.
Michigan lost to Maryland and look for my next article about why no team except for 1 from the Big Ten can make the Final Four. Spoiler...it isn't "March is Tom Izzo"
On the bubble side, Xavier got another win and look good right now. Underneath the hood their 1-9 Q1 record isn't much better than North Carolina. Xavier will have a big game vs Connecticut in the Big East Tournament. On the outside, both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh lost and will be dropped from Consideration.
Tonight we have little real action as Conference Tournaments kick off. Only games of note are FAU at UAB and Charlotte at North Texas. UAB and North Texas don't really have an at-large resume but I'm going to monitor them to see if there's a chance. One of them will win the auto-bid as you can't trust Memphis.
Thursday Tips
Friday night conference shenanigans begin for the CAA and SoCon on Friday. I understand the Colonial is now the Coastal but names are meaningless in modern college athletics. Look it up. If it has a Big in front of it, it’s completely nonsensical.
CAA-
Fine. The Coastal, sigh, is having its tournament in DC. Better than the Wiz, I bet. Towson, 149 in KenPom, won the league, going 16-2. However, UNC-Wilmington, is 108 in KenPom. Either way, Takayo Siddle and Pat Skerry might be headed to bigger things, though, Skerry has been at Towson a long time.
Charleston and Elon are the only other plus 200 KenPom teams in the league. Look what they’ve done to our beautiful boy. Chris Mack is the coach at Charleston. Huh. I knew that but forgot. Get in the tournament, Chris, and I can think of a few Big East schools that might interested in you.
Anyway, the pick is UNCW and they’d be a team that probably scares someone for 30 minutes or so in round one
SoCon-
SoCon is in Nashville, a city known for drunken bachelorettes. I had a guy in town from Nashville last year for a day that I toured around Milwaukee with. He loved the bike lanes which I told him were really just for a-hole drivers to pass on and sure enough, like a second later, a dude blew by us doing like 60 in a 35 in a bike lane.
Chattanooga won the league and is 110 in KenPom. They have the nations 11th best real scoring %., shoot 36.6% from 3 and 58.1% from 2. They’re awful on defense but I’m just saying, this is a bracket buster if they find a bad defensive team like Kentucky early on.
Samford is actually 106 in KenPom and is the last team to beat the Mocs who have won 11 straight. They’re 3-4 in their last 7, however, pand have Furman in round 1 who isn’t a slouch, themselves.
UNC-Greensboro, Furman, Wofford and East Tennessee State are all in the 130-150 range in KenPom. Think this is pretty wide open. Might be worth a peek for hoops junkies.
I don’t have a feel here, but even if I did, I have no inclination to believe I’d make the right pick. So, let’s take UNC-Greensboro who have scored 49 in a loss two weeks ago and 108 in a win this past Saturday. That’s the kind of consistency I like.
Tomorrow, two of the more interesting conference tourneys tip off. Let’s go.
Arch Madness
Bid Thief Warning. Bubble teams will be paying attention to St. Louis this weekend which sounds like some really nasty stuff. Drake won the regular season title and feel sorta safe to get at an-large. Only 60 in KenPom, they’re not a classic Valley threat. They do own wins over Vandy and K-State.
Bradley seems like the most likely bid thief. Rumors abound Brian Wardle is the next in-line at Dayton as rumors say Anthony Grant is ready to retire. Drake and Bradley split in the regular season with the Braves beating the Bulldogs in an ugly one last month.
Northern Iowa is 102 in KenPom and finished 3rd. Definitely capable of winning this weekend. Belmont is 132 in KenPom and Illinois State is 141. Belmont has been better since the year changed. Trending.
Bid thievery? Think so. I’ll take Northern Iowa to shock the world in St. Louis. Is it really shocking? I guess not but language is a beautiful thing.
WCC
From Las Vegas, the WCC tips off tomorrow. Wild. League is 73 years old. Crazy.
Brian is in love with St. Mary’s like a cocker spaniel looking at a plate of cookies. He’s insane. They might win this tournament but he’s still insane.
The Zags are weird. 8th in KenPom but bubbling. They could be one-and-done or make the Final 4. I have more faith in them than St. Mary’s.
You have 3 top 100 KenPom teams, in San Francisco, Santa Clara and Oregon State, sigh. USF is 63, Santa Clara is 54 and OSU is 79. Good lord, Herb Sendek is the Santa Clara coach. Let’s keep him out of the tournament, ok.
The pick is St. Mary’s just to trick Brian even more. St. Mary’s is a Dominican based school. Members of the Dominican order were appointed by Pope Gregory IX to carry out the inquisition. Has the inquisition reached Brian? That’s why history is important to know.
Wednesday brings us the beginning of 4 conference tournaments. Let’s dive in.
Summit- From Sioux Falls, home of Mary Hart, the Summit League takes the court to entertain us Wednesday night.
As a hardcore Summit League fan, I am sad to report Nebraska-Omaha won the league this year. 180th in KenPom is 4th best in the league behind South Dakota State (120), St. Thomas (124) and NDSU (125). UNO went 6-9 out of conference but rode a hot offense to the league title. Whatever they figured out at the start of league play has worked.
The other 3 are pretty close as you can tell. St. Thomas long term desire is to join the Big East. Goals, have them, kids. Anyway, the pick is South Dakota State because the Dakotas should always rep this league.
Big South- The Big South is taking its show to Johnson City, TN, home of Del Harris, who is still alive. High Point cruised to the regular season title and is 88 in KenPom. Radford and Winthrop are the only other top-200 KenPom teams and they’re 156 and 174, so, eh.
High Point has 2 wins over AAC squads and should seriously claim that league title as well. On an 11-game winning streak, they have the 25th best offense in the nation but a god awful defense. They’re the pick and I’d love to see them scare the daylights out of a 3 or 4 seed SEC team but my confidence isn’t high on this one based on a leaky d.
NEC- The NEC wisely plays all games on campus sites. KenPom’s worst conference, the prayer here is, Central Connecticut wins this thing. They actually have the nations longest winning streak at 12 games. At 173 in KenPom, that’s 100 spots clear of the second best team.
Watch this team, Duke fans. Feels like a potential round 1 opponent.
Ohio Valley- These teams are invading Evansville starting Wednesday night. Evansville is known as “Crescent City” or “River City” and was originally named McGary’s Landing.
SE Missouri won the league and is 203 in KenPom. Only 4 other schools are top 300. SIUE, UT-Martin, Little Rock and Tennessee State. None have a positive NetRtg. 16-seed city is what Evansville is.
The pick is SE Missouri because they really are the best team. The best team doesn’t always win. It’s one of the many paradoxes of life, like, you can’t always get what you want but you might get what you need. Paint it black, SE Missouri.
Starting Tuesday, our delightful friends in the Sun Belt, Horizon & Patriot League begin their conference championship.
Sun Belt - The Fun Belt is coming to you, live from Pensacola, where rolling a barrel down the street can cost you a fine. Look it up.
The league title was shared by Arkansas State (87th in KenPom), Troy (109th), South Alabama (115th) and James Madison (154th). Love them Dukes. Marshall finished a game back and does own a win over Arkansas State. If the top-seeds hold serve (tennis or volleyball term), this could be a lowkey fun tournament.
I think any of the top 3 can be a handful in an opening round game for someone, so it behooves the league one of those teams wins. I drove through Arkansas in October and it was quite pleasant, so I’ll say Arky State comes out of this league.
Horizon- The Whore Zone opens on campus and finishes in beautiful Indianapolis and will certainly have the most compelling basketball tournament of any of the conferences having their tourneys here.
Robert Morris, named after the financier of the Revolutionary War. He ended up in a debtors prison, so that explains a lot about American financial history. Anyway, the Governors are 152 in KenPom. Milwaukee is actually better at 136 but Bob swept the Panthers this season. And let’s face it, nobody roots for the artist formerly known as UWM.
Cleveland State and PFW are 165 and 164 in KenPom respectively. Bob has won 7 in a row and 13 of 14. They are on fire. That said, they have some weird in-league losses and that makes me hesitant to pick them. I’ll pick Cleveland State to steal a bid even though Cleveland isn’t a state unless you consider it a state of mind.
Patriot- The Patriot plays all its games at campus sites. This is a pretty terrible league. Bucknell and American split the league title, but the Bisons own a 22-point win over the Eagles after losing to them by 10 earlier in the season. This isn’t your mom’s Bucknell team of yore, though. They’re not very good.
Bucknell is 217 in KenPom, American 251. The only other schools with winning records overall are Boston and Army. Colgate could probably win this league but they’d still have a losing record.
Basically, this league is trash. Eagles eat a lot of trash, so American is the pick.
Rumor has it, March has begun. Whee. That means conference tournaments are starting. First up, our friends in the Atlantic Sun. They begin tomorrow, with all games on campus.
Lipscomb and North Alabama shared the regular season title, splitting their two matchups. Lipscomb is 84 in KenPom, North Alabama is 113.
Florida Gulf Coast is 163, Eastern Kentucky is 176 and Jacksonville is 183. Basically, league really wants the top 2 to be the winner. Eastern Kentucky swept Lipscomb. Rude. I prefer Lipscomb wins but what I prefer matters not. The randomness of the cosmos cares not for the whimsical desires of the individual but instead often crushes one’s whimsy like a boot to an ant.
The pick: North Alabama
