December 2 Bracketology

1. Arizona  vs  16. Southern/Norfolk St.
1. Purdue  vs  16. UMBC/LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Siena
1. Michigan  vs  16. Northern Kentucky
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Colgate
2. Louisville  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. St. Thomas
2. BYU  vs  15. South Alabama
3. Alabama  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
3. North Carolina  vs  14. Austin Peay
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Northern Colorado
3. Kansas  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Gonzaga  vs  13. New Mexico St.
4. Houston  vs  13. Buffalo
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Kansas  vs  13. High Point
5. St. John's  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Kentucky  vs  12. Belmont
5. Tennessee  vs  12. UC San Diego
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Yale
6. Nebraska  vs  11. George Mason
6. Iowa  vs  11. Tulsa/Seton Hall
6. Vanderbilt  vs  11. Texas/Baylor
6. Indiana  vs  11. Ohio St.
7. USC  vs  10. Wake Forest
7. Missouri  vs  10. TCU
7. Auburn  vs  10. SMU
7. NC State  vs  10. Saint Mary's
8. Butler  vs  9. Georgia
8. Florida  vs  9. Oklahoma St.
8. LSU  vs  9. Virginia
8. Utah St.  vs  9. Clemson
 
First Four Out Dayton
First Four Out Wisconsin
First Four Out Washington
First Four Out Villanova
Next Four Out Boise St.
Next Four Out Texas A&M
Next Four Out Saint Louis
Next Four Out VCU
Also Considered          Colorado St.
Also Considered          UCLA
Also Considered          Colorado St.
Also Considered          Mississippi

ACC-SEC "Challenge"

 Tonight is the start of the ACC-SEC Challenge.  Last year the ACC went 2-14, getting molly-whopped.  This year should be more competitive but I still expect the SEC to pull away easily.  The highlight games of the night are Duke vs Florida and North Carolina vs Kentucky.

The great game don't end there as there are great games elsewhere.  Iowa travels to Michigan State and although Iowa isn't ranked, they are undefeated.  Michigan State is the darling of the media at the moment with a lot of them lumping them in with Michigan and Purdue.  Don't be fooled, they are a tier below.

At Allen Fieldhouse, Kansas hosts Connecticut with Darryn Peterson potentially making his return.  This is the game of the night after Duke-Florida.

Have fun watching the games tonight and get ready as conference play kicks off.  A new Bracket will be out later today.

One Month Re-valuation

The Good:

Gonzaga and probably Michigan.  St. John’s is 0-2 against good teams.  Tennessee looks the part.

The Bad:

Kentucky has issues.  Kansas will not outperform pre-season expectations.

Worst call is Marquette.  No jump from any player on the roster and arguably the worst defensive team of the century for Marquette.  Rotations on defense?  Eraser in the middle?  None of that.  This is a poorly developed and poorly coached team one month into the season.

New Final Four:

3 stay but take Kentucky out and replace with Arizona.  Gonzaga over Michigan

The Only 2025-26 College Basketball Preview of Substance

All I ask of this season is utter chaos in the coaching ranks like we have seen on the football side. Let’s extend the fiscal irresponsibility and emotional bad vibes to hoops as well.

Three that are overrated:

UCLA: Firing coaches, you say? What school fits the criteria I outlined above?  UCLA does and Mick Cronin is a miserable man with bad vibes. After his first 0-2 trip east in Big 18 play this year, the wheels will start in motion as Mick looks for an escape path.

Iowa State: Ok, this hurts. Local guy makes good. Great friend’s kid is a sophomore at Ames so I’m cheering for them for multiple reasons but 44 pre-season in KenPom offense and 48 in T-Rank? Get an offensive coordinator, T.J. Yes, pre-season analytics don’t mean a ton until we have real data but historical precedence of T.J. at Iowa State says that’s a problem for them.

St. John’s: 7 in T-Rank, 16 in KenPom to open the season. 5th in the AP. Lots of expectations for this team but UConn reclaims the Big East throne and we get a lot of interesting Rick Pitino pressers.

Three that are underrated:

Kansas: They go as far as Darryn Peterson takes them and he can take them to a Final Four. Love Tre White here. Love Melvin Council here. A KU team whose sum of parts will equal a return to a Big XII title.

Gonzaga: It’s possible we’re at the Mark Few decline stage but the last year in the WCC feels like they should go out with a bang. Graham Ike is worth a flyer for NPOY. Zags move to the whatever the hell league they’re joining next year deserves a big send off. Vibes, folks.

Marquette: Homer pick, so to speak but they are flying under the radar nationally. If this were a team of transfers, we’d probably rate them higher (H/T Cracked Sidewalks). But because they’re returning everyone and there isn’t a bona fide star that we see, I think they’re being overlooked. Shaka has basically taken the Bo Ryan path where many seasons, we looked at the Badgers roster and said, ah-ha!, this is the season they unravel. Won’t be surprised if this is a top-3 Big East team.

Final 4:

Kentucky

Gonzaga

Tennessee

Michigan

National Champ: Kentucky over Michigan

Final Four Picks

Final Four:
Duke
Houston
Michigan
Texas Tech

Championship Game:
Duke over Michigan

2025-2026 First Bracketology

1. Houston  vs  16. Long Island/Norfolk St.
1. Florida  vs  16. Vermont/Colgate
1. Purdue  vs  16. Siena
1. Duke  vs  16. Oakland
2. Texas Tech  vs  15. Florida Gulf Coast
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Montana
2. Kentucky  vs  15. South Dakota St.
2. Tennessee  vs  15. Southern
3. Louisville  vs  14. Little Rock
3. St. John's  vs  14. James Madison
3. BYU  vs  14. Furman
3. Kansas  vs  14. Charleston
4. Gonzaga  vs  13. Northern Iowa
4. Michigan  vs  13. UC Irvine
4. Iowa St.  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Kansas  vs  13. High Point
5. Alabama  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Baylor  vs  12. Liberty
5. UCLA  vs  12. Akron
5. Arizona  vs  12. Yale
6. San Diego St.  vs  11. Saint Mary's
6. North Carolina  vs  11. Dayton/Memphis
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. Marquette/Iowa
6. NC State  vs  11. Washington
7. Mississippi  vs  10. Indiana
7. Vanderbilt  vs  10. Clemson
7. Auburn  vs  10. Oregon
7. Missouri  vs  10. Texas
8. USC  vs  9. Creighton
8. Michigan St.  vs  9. Utah St.
8. Mississippi St.  vs  9. Arkansas
8. Texas A&M  vs  9. Ohio St.

Less Than a Week Away

 We are less than 1 week away from the beginning of the NCAA Men's Basketball Season and our first bracket is coming out later today.  Picks and predictions will be on the docket for later this week and on Monday it all gets going.  Should be a great, wide open season.

4 Sat

 Auburn vs. Florida- These football games used to be wild and stupid at times. A battle of two great dudes that coach each team.  Florida 88 Auburn 87

Duke vs. Houston- Duke can match Houston’s defense. They can play at their tempo. Houston will be the toughest team Duke has faced in some time. Houston has to make baskets and that’s always the rub. Will they against a tough Duke defense? I have my doubts they can do so consistently enough. Duke 70 Houston 62

Ate 2

 Houston vs. Tennessee: The Vols are back where they were a year ago. Houston is here after some slightly sluggish games. Betting this is a big Vols crowd. Vines love Tennessee 68 Houston 64

Michigan State vs. Auburn: Click.  Auburn 84 Michigan State 73

Ate 1

 Texas Tech vs. Florida: I jumped on the Tech wagon in November. I’ve doubted Florida all year. Only an a-hole would change up now. Vibin’ vibes loves Florida 81 Texas Tech 74

Alabama vs. Duke: Entered the week saying Bama looked pretty blah opening weekend. Yesterday, talked to people fully convinced they were the Death Star. That thing blew up twice, you know? BYU is a bad defensive team whose offense went cold. Hard to see that happening to Duke. Vibes say rammer jammer Duke 94 Alabama 91

50/50 Sounds Right 16 Part 2

Ole Miss vs. Michigan State: I hate giving Izzo credit, however, he finally is letting his team be what they are. He’s the second best coach in this game but vibes say: Michigan State 68 Ole Miss 65

Michigan vs. Auburn: This game goes one way or the other tonight. Michigan wins in some ugly slobberknocker Auburn coasts. Vibes say: Auburn 87 Michigan 69

Kentucky vs. Tennessee: Kentucky swept them. It’s why YOU THROW THE RECORDS OUT.  Vibes say: Tennessee 77 Kentucky 69

Purdue vs. Houston: Houston, the 1-seed, is the road team in this game. Know what? Doesn’t matter because Houston is simply better. Purdue can win if Houston can’t shoot, entirely possible. But if Houston shoots even decent, they’re just simply better than Purdue. Purdue is 55 in KenPom defense. Vibes vibin: Houston 75 Purdue 67

Sweet 16 Super Picks

BYU vs. Bama- It’s kind of eerie how similar Bama and Wisconsin are in hoops. Things that make you go hmmmmm. If Bama turns it over like they did against St. Mary’s, they’ll lose this one. BYU will get buckets. Purely vibes say: BYU 100 Alabama 92

Arizona vs. Duke- Yes, Arizona beat Duke that one time in a Sweet 16 like 14 years ago. Ain’t happening again. Purely vibes say: Duke 85 Arizona 70

Maryland vs. Florida- Both kind of feel like they had their bullet dodging game in round 2. So, that said, what do the numbers tell us? There isn’t a lot that separates them. Both are in the margin of error for national title contenders based on KenPom numbers. Florida is definitely better but this is a toss up, imo. I’ve been wrong about Florida all year. Purely vibes say: Maryland 79 Florida 78

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas- I was Tech before the season, so forget anything else. Purely vibes say: Texas Tech 72 Arkansas 64

Reseed that Sweet 16

Felt like a chalky year. Turned chalky in March. Is it a new era of chalk? Maybe? Before we jump to a conclusion, let’s give it time. 

1. Duke (1 KP)- Best team in the nation doesn’t break a sweat through 2 rounds. 

2. Houston (2)- Zags made them sweat but Houston held on. Not sold they aren’t the first 1 seed to lose.

3. Florida (3)- UConn wasn’t going to go quiet. A better defensive team might have beaten them yesterday but Florida didn’t waver. They keep proving me wrong.

4. Auburn (4)- Did what they had to. Creighton couldn’t match the size or athleticism. Michigan uglies them up, it’ll be interesting to see how they respond.

5. Tennessee (5)- Too much of everything for a game UCLA squad. Kentucky next who went 2-0 against the Vols during the season.

6. Alabama (6)- Anyone other than St. Mary’s and Bama might lose that game. Gaels simply aren’t a team that could take advantage of the turnovers because of how they play and can’t match Bama athletically when they don’t turn it over. BYU can beat them.

7. Michigan State (7)- Blah. Get Ole Miss instead of Iowa  State. About right.

8. Texas Tech (8)- Grant McCasland can coach. Red Raiders do so much well.

9. Maryland (10)- First blip on the KP versus team left scale. Just a really good team and very tough test for a 1-seed in the Sweet 16. Florida will have earned a regional final if they win this game.

10. Arizona (13)- Thanks for playing. 

11. Kentucky (15)- Feels like this is the point where they get off the train. Love the future but think the Vols bring a lot of revenge pain in this one.

12. Purdue (16)- How the hell are they in Indy against Houston? Pretty rude for the Cougs.

13. Michigan (20)- Just happy to be here and dumb enough to stay.  Could lose by 25 or win because Auburn gets stuck in the mud with them. 

14. Ole Miss (21)- Would love to see them, of all teams, beat Michigan State. Not likely, but know Chris Beard won’t be out coached in this one.

15. BYU (24)- BYU polo arrives soon. Dick punchers in football and hoops, the offense is so good, it’s covered up the defense. Think that can work against Bama. 

16. Arkansas (36)- Like so many Calipari teams, you see such great potential, but you just wait for the inevitable disappointment. Exposed St. John’s mediocre offense. Doubt Texas Tech lets that happen.

Bracket Breakdown Boffo Bonanza

Well, we know UNC is going to a Sweet 16 at least. Up for a prop bet? 12’s and 13’s go 8-0 in the opening round. If there were ever a year for that to happen, this would be it. Now, is it likely? Absolutely not. I don’t have a fancy algorithm but I’d give it a .001% chance. But, if it does, I’ll edit this here post. 

After that, this year feels chalky with regards to the likely Final 4. My other sorta bold prediction is we don’t have anything other than 1’s and 2’s in the Final 4. Chaos may reign opening weekend but by the end, it’s chalky.

14 SEC teams calls for a predicted record and I’ll say 21-14, 2 Final 4 teams with 1 in the final game and 7 sweet 16 teams.

East Region-

Under seeded: VCU at 11.  31 in KenPom, they should probably be on the 8-9 seed line, so it’s not terrible but they avoid Duke this way and can beat anyone else between 3 and 10.

Over seeded: Oregon at 5. 33 in KenPom, they are asking to get knocked out early.

Brian’s beloved Gaels are here and draw a favorable matchup with Vandy. They also avoid Grant Nelson. If this Gaels team can’t make a Sweet 16, they may never do it again.

Soft region and no excuse for Duke not to roll through this. 

West Region-

Under seeded: Missouri is a 6 and 15 in KenPom. A possible round 2 matchup with Texas Tech would involve 2 KenPom top-15 teams. 

Over seeded: Memphis at 5. They’re 50 in KenPom. They open against Colorado State who is 44 but seeded correctly. If Memphis makes the Sweet 16, Jesus take the wheel.

I really like St. John’s here. Arguably the most improved team in the nation from November. I’ve slept on Florida all year, though, and they’re just really freaking good. A potential matchup against Maryland in the Sweet 16 would be a super fun game.

Couple of blue bloods are hanging out here in Kansas and UConn and I like both to win their opener. Will make for fascinating narratives in round two. Just don’t think either have ever figured out what and who they are this year.

South Region- 

Under seeded: The answer is no one really. You can argue Louisville should be a 6 and I think the committee got their line wrong. They do suffer for it, though. A win and Auburn awaits but still, I think Louisville fan is thrilled with where they are at and going.

Over seeded: Michigan, kind of. Michigan fan would tell you they should be a 4, computers say 6 or 7. But a lot of close wins will fluff the record but not the computer numbers. I don’t expect a long stay in the tournament.

Talk about a blah region. Your 2-5 seeds play underwhelming offense. Iowa State is 21 in AdjO but haven’t been good for 6+ weeks on that side of the ball. Is this a take a flier region?  Yeah, I think so. However…

I’ll be shocked if it isn’t Auburn or Sparty coming out of here. But as I said, I think this region would be the most likely to send someone to an unlikely Final 4.

Midwest-

Under seeded: It’s Gonzaga. The computers have loved them all year and they’re 9th in KenPom. I’ve developed a thesis that they’ll breakthrough and win a title (that is, if they ever do) when we least expect it. If they somehow beat Houston, I’m just saying.

Over seeded: Kentucky is 16 in KenPom and a 3-seed. It’s not egregious and has as much to do with 14 SEC teams making it as much as anything. Outside Gonzaga, this looks like a balanced region as far as correct seed lines.

This is actually Houston’s best offense under Kelvin Sampson. They’re 4th in 3PT %. They just don’t shoot a lot of them and they still play glacially slow. If they lose to Gonzaga, should they face them in round 2, it’ll be because they miss a lot of 3’s and can’t pull away. Makes note to check this later.

Think Tennessee comes out of here and finally makes its first Final 4 ever. Just don’t see much standing in their way until the regional final.

FWIW, Final 4 is Duke, St. John’s, Auburn and Tennessee. Duke cuts down the nets.

Backup Final 4 is Arizona, Florida, Michigan State and Gonzaga

Backup backup Final 4 is BYU, Texas Tech, UNC and Houston

Final Bracket

1. Duke  vs  16. Alabama St./American
1. Auburn  vs  16. SIUE/Mount St. Mary's
1. Houston  vs  16. Saint Francis
1. Florida  vs  16. Bryant
2. Alabama  vs  15. Montana
2. Tennessee  vs  15. Nebraska Omaha
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Wofford
2. St. John's  vs  15. Norfolk St.
3. Texas Tech  vs  14. Robert Morris
3. Kentucky  vs  14. Lipscomb
3. Wisconsin  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
3. Oregon  vs  14. Troy
4. Maryland  vs  13. Akron
4. Iowa St.  vs  13. Yale
4. Texas A&M  vs  13. Grand Canyon
4. Oregon  vs  13. High Point
5. Purdue  vs  12. Liberty
5. Louisville  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Mississippi  vs  12. UC San Diego
5. Arizona  vs  12. Drake
6. Clemson  vs  11. Colorado St.
6. BYU  vs  11. Indiana/Texas
6. Memphis  vs  11. Vanderbilt/San Diego St.
6. Saint Mary's  vs  11. VCU
7. Marquette  vs  10. Oklahoma
7. Missouri  vs  10. Baylor
7. Kansas  vs  10. Utah St.
7. Gonzaga  vs  10. West Virginia
8. Creighton  vs  9. Arkansas
8. Mississippi St.  vs  9. Illinois
8. UCLA  vs  9. Georgia
8. New Mexico  vs  9. Connecticut
First Four Out - Boise St.
First Four Out - Xavier
First Four Out - North Carolina
First Four Out - Ohio St.
Next Four Out - Dayton
Next Four Out - North Texas
Next Four Out - Wake Forest
Next Four Out - UAB

VCU is...

 In.  And that saves 1 big decision.  2 spots:

Boise State

Pro - 7-7 Q1-Q2 record, 79 NCSOS.  Con - Q3 loss, Q4 loss

Indiana

Pro - 8-13 Q1-Q2 record 56 NCSOS.  Con 4-13 Q1 record.

Xavier 

Pro - been hot lately, 9-11 Q1-Q2 record.  Con 2-9 in Q1

Texas

Pro - 7-10 in Q1, not bad losses.  Con - NCSOS 215

2 spots.....looking at it now it might end up being Texas and Indiana

Sunday

5 games left until the Selection show.  We have one bid stealer alive in UAB.  I believe VCU needs to win to be in.

I think there are two open spots right now, which will go down to 1 if UAB wins.

That spot(s) are going to be fought over between Indiana, Boise St. and Xavier.  Boise St has a Q4 loss and looked bad yesterday.  All of Indiana's losses have come in Q1 but 4-13 isn't pretty.  Xavier is 2-9 in Q1.

  Right now I have them ranked Indiana, Xavier, Boise State, with the intention of relooking at Texas as well.

Currently....

The last spot is going to Indiana over Xavier.  Need to keep an eye on Boise St. vs Colorado St. as the loser might be out.  

Memphis needs to win otherwise that's a bid stolen.  VCU probably needs to win to get in.  They have a Q4 loss and that's ugly

Saturday Bracket

 1. Duke  vs  16. Jackson St./American

1. Auburn  vs  16. SIUE/Iona

1. Houston  vs  16. Saint Francis

1. Florida  vs  16. Nebraska Omaha

2. Alabama  vs  15. Montana

2. Tennessee  vs  15. Bryant

2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Wofford

2. St. John's  vs  15. Norfolk St.

3. Texas Tech  vs  14. Robert Morris

3. Kentucky  vs  14. Utah Valley

3. Wisconsin  vs  14. UNC Wilmington

3. Oregon  vs  14. Troy

4. Arizona  vs  13. Akron

4. Iowa St.  vs  13. Yale

4. Texas A&M  vs  13. Lipscomb

4. Oregon  vs  13. High Point

5. Purdue  vs  12. Liberty

5. Louisville  vs  12. McNeese St.

5. Mississippi  vs  12. UC San Diego

5. Michigan  vs  12. Drake

6. Clemson  vs  11. Colorado St.

6. BYU  vs  11. Indiana/Boise St.

6. Memphis  vs  11. Vanderbilt/San Diego St.

6. Saint Mary's  vs  11. VCU

7. Marquette  vs  10. Oklahoma

7. Missouri  vs  10. Baylor

7. Kansas  vs  10. Georgia

7. Gonzaga  vs  10. West Virginia

8. Mississippi St.  vs  9. Arkansas

8. Creighton  vs  9. Illinois

8. UCLA  vs  9. Utah St.

8. New Mexico  vs  9. Connecticut

First Four Out - North Carolina

First Four Out - Xavier

First Four Out - Texas

First Four Out - UC Irvine

Next Four Out - Ohio St.

Next Four Out - Dayton

Next Four Out - North Texas

Next Four Out - Wake Forest

Saturday Morning

Lots of great action last night and today.  Bid Thieves are out there and the Mountain West is in the center of it.  Boise St or Colorado St is going dancing and it might cost San Diego St a bid.  Indiana, Xavier, and Texas are all on high alert as its getting tight on the bubble.  North Carolina is out and I actually feel bad for Jaylin Withers on his lane violation.

Pouring through the numbers and will updates later.  Right now I have Indian as the last team in and Texas as my first team out.  Need to double check the numbers cause that's just the eye test.

Thursday Action

Lots of good games and bubble action.  Big news on the day is the Cooper Flag injury and the Blue Devils struggles.  Going to have to wait and see on that one.

As for Bubble teams we had some separation on both sides.  Weirdly enough my last 5 in all lost while my first 3 out all won. Now, it's not as simple as flipping those teams around because some teams didn't really improve their profile yesterday.  Two examples are North Carolina (out) and Xavier (in).  North Carolina still has only 1 Q1 win, while Xavier gained a Q1 win even though they lost.  How is that you ask?  Their win over Connecticut went from a Q2 to a Q1 based on the Huskies late hot streak.

Wake Forest is out and that spot will go to either Boise State or Texas.  Whether Xavier drops out or not is the key here.  Suddenly San Diego State doesn't look as safe either.  Needs to reprocess the metrics and see what comes out.  Either way it would do wonders for Boise, UNC, and Texas to pull another win today.

Thursday Bracket

 1. Duke  vs  16. Jackson St./American

1. Auburn  vs  16. SIUE/Quinnipiac

1. Houston  vs  16. Saint Francis

1. Florida  vs  16. Nebraska Omaha

2. Alabama  vs  15. Robert Morris

2. Tennessee  vs  15. Bryant

2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Wofford

2. St. John's  vs  15. Norfolk St.

3. Iowa St.  vs  14. Utah Valley

3. Texas Tech  vs  14. Montana

3. Kentucky  vs  14. UNC Wilmington

3. Texas A&M  vs  14. Troy

4. Purdue  vs  13. Akron

4. Wisconsin  vs  13. Yale

4. Oregon  vs  13. Lipscomb

4. Clemson  vs  13. High Point

5. Arizona  vs  12. Liberty

5. Maryland  vs  12. McNeese St.

5. Missouri  vs  12. UC San Diego

5. Michigan  vs  12. Drake

6. Louisville  vs  11. Xavier

6. Mississippi St.  vs  11. Wake Forest/Indiana

6. Marquette  vs  11. Baylor/San Diego St.

6. Saint Mary's  vs  11. VCU

7. Memphis  vs  10. Arkansas

7. BYU  vs  10. Georgia

7. Mississippi  vs  10. Oklahoma

7. Kansas  vs  10. West Virginia

8. Illinois  vs  9. Vanderbilt

8. Connecticut  vs  9. Creighton

8. UCLA  vs  9. Utah St.

8. New Mexico  vs  9. Gonzaga

First Four Out - North Carolina

First Four Out - Boise St.

First Four Out - Texas

First Four Out - Villanova

Next Four Out - Dayton

Next Four Out - Nebraska

Next Four Out - SMU

Next Four Out - Colorado St.

Also Considered - Ohio St.

Also Considered - Cincinnati

Also Considered - UC Irvine

Wednesday Results

Three more bids went out last night as Montana, American, and McNeese St bunch their tickets.

On the bubble side Ohio State and Cincinnati lost and are O-U-T.  North Carolina, Texas, and SMU hang on for one more day.

For teams that won, I think Arkansas is now in as is Baylor.  Oklahoma might have enough as well.

On the flip side, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, and Georgia all lost.  These teams were all 10 seeds and appear safe but I'm going to take a longer look at the Mountaineers.  The 9-13 Q1-Q2 record isn't great.

Later post on today's games but it appears like the winner of Wake vs UNC will be in and loser out.

Tonight's Bubble

Iowa vs Ohio State - Ohio State is among my First Four Out so a win is required.  Maybe more than 1...

Kansas State vs Baylor - I have Baylor as an 11 seed.  Kansas State can get hot and if Baylor loses they might be on the hot seat.

Syracuse vs SMU - SMU has 0 Q1 wins.  They need to win today, tomorrow, and Friday.

Oklahoma vs Georgia - Georgia can afford a loss more than Oklahoma can.  The Sooners might hang on with a loss but I would think they would be my last team in.

Bubble Afternoon

A couple bubble games of note this afternoon. We are not tracking Cincinnati unless they beat Iowa State.

Arkansas vs South Carolina - Arkansas needs to not lose more than they need to win...if that makes sense.  I think a win puts them in for sure

Notre Dame vs North Carolina - Carolina needs this one and tomorrow against Wake Forest otherwise they are out

Colorado vs West Virginia - The Mountaineers appear safe but a bad loss here hurts

Texas vs Vanderbilt - Texas needs at least this win and probably another one tomorrow.

Bids Today

Southland:

#1 McNeese St vs #2 Lamar - McNeese has ruled this conference all year.  Time to punch the ticket.

Patriot:

#2 American vs 5 Navy - The battle for a 16 seed play-in game.  Navy for the upset.

Big Sky:

#1 Northern Colorado vs 2 Montana - both can give a 3 seed some fits.  Um ah, Montana.

The Rest...

MEAC:
#1 Seed: Norfolk State
My Pick: Delaware State
 
Mountain West:
#1 Seed: New Mexico
My Pick: Boise State
 
Big East:
#1 Seed: St. John’s
My Pick: Connecticut
 
Big West:
#1 Seed: UC-San Diego
My Pick: UC Irvine, but only if UCSD gets an at-large, which they are capable of
 
SEC:
#1 Seed: Auburn
My Pick: Tennessee
 
Big Ten:
#1 Seed: Michigan State
My Pick: Wisconsin
 
Atlantic 10:
#1 Seed: VCU
My Pick: Dayton is coming on strong.  Let’s hope for a 2 bid A-10
 
American:
#1 Seed: Memphis
My Pick: North Texas.  Let’s hope for a 2 bud American so I don’t have to see the Big ten’s 8^th best team.
 
MAC:
#1 Seed: Akron
My Pick: Kent State
 
Ivy:
#1 Seed: Yale
My Pick: Yale

This is the End

Our last two conference tourneys get under way on  Thursday and then Saturday. Some MAC-tion and Ivy to finish this year off.

It hurts to set you free

But you’ll never follow me

The end of laughter and soft lies

The end of nights we tried to die

This is the end.

MAC- From Cleveland, comes MAC-tion. The sadness of this league is enough to make a clown cry. Akron won the league at 17-1 and is 100 in KenPom. Miami, OH finished 2nd but is 160 in KenPom. College roommates kid goes there, so that’s something.

Kent State is the 2nd best team in the league according to KenPom, 129th overall with Ohio at 196 rounding out the teams in the KenPom top 200. The pick is Akron, hoping the best team comes out of here but that doesn’t happen here often. In fact, since 2019, no regular season champ has won the league tourney.

IVY- The smart kids have their 4-team playoff beginning this Saturday in Providence. Can’t be that smart if you’re playing this thing in Providence, eh?

Anyway, Yale coasted to the title, going 13-1. They did lose last week to Harvard who sucks this year but you throw the records out and all that jazz in rivalry games. They’re 72 in KenPom. 

Nicely, the other 3 teams in this are all top-200 in KenPom but Cornell is 2nd at 132 and Princeton and freaking Dartmouth are 182 and 193. Not quite at Yale’s status. Dartmouth hasn’t been to the tournament since 1959.

The pick is Yale who feels like a team Maryland doesn’t want anything to do with next week 

Tuesday Bids

Coastal:

Delaware vs UNC-Wilmington - Delaware is a 12 seed that got hot at the right time.  Hoping for a good game but UNCW is probably too much to handle.

Horizon:

Youngstown State vs Robert Morris - Bob almost lost yesterday.  They turn it on today.

NorthEast:

St. Francis-PA vs Central Connecticut State - Baby Blue Devils all the way.

West Coast:

Gonzaga vs St. Mary's -  I can't pick against St. Mary's

Not much bubble action today.  Everything gets real for Bubble teams tomorrow!

Conference Tournaments Starting Today

 

Big 12:
#1 Seed: Houston
My Pick: Iowa State
 
ACC
#1 Seed: Duke
My Pick: Duke
 
CUSA:
#1 Seed: Liberty
My Pick: Middle Tennessee State
 
SWAC:
#1 Seed: Southern
My Pick:
 
WAC:
#1 Seed: Utah Valley
My Pick: Utah Valley
 
MAAC:
#1 Seed: Quinnipiac
My Pick: Quinnipiac

The Last of 3-12

Proverbs 3 12 says:

Because the Lord disciplines those he loves, as a father the son he delights in.

That still doesn’t explain the Lord letting the Big Ten wield such influence but yet, here we are. Love those he disciplines? I don’t think so, God.

Big Ten- No league has done more damage to college athletics than this unholy monstrosity. Whatever wrath awaits it for the damage it has done will never match what it deserves. The pick is Michigan State

A10- The A10 is in D.C. No word about cherry trees or the like. VCU and George Mason shared the title by going 15-3. Think VCU is safely in but GMU needs to win this sucker.

Dayton was the Belle of the Ball early in the year but faded badly in league play. Brian still has them hanging around but they probably need to get to least Sunday.

Bid thief? Feels like we may get one here. VCU is the clear favorite but the middle of the league is muddled and capable. Even the 13-18 Dukes of Duquesne are 131 in KenPom. Let’s take a flier here and pick not Dayton but Loyola Chicago, 113 in KenPom and 9-2 in their last 11 to thieve a bid

Big East- League was blah this year. Marquette faded, UConn never figured out its defense, Creighton is fine but boring, Xavier is bubbling. That leaves St. John’s who were cute for awhile but have become sort of annoying as we get reminded of front running NYC sports fans.

The Johnnies could make a Final 4. They’re a match for Pitino’s 2012 Louisville team who made a Final 4. Almost identical. They could also get dumped very early.

The pick is St. John’s because you really can’t trust anyone else in this league at the moment. Xavier needs a win over Marquette on Thursday or better plan on a long weekend of what-ifs. 

The league needs to have a strong off-season. But that’s another topic for another day.

Monday Bracketology

1. Duke  vs  16. American/SIUE

1. Auburn  vs  16. Nebraska Omaha/Southern

1. Houston  vs  16. Bryant

1. Florida  vs  16. Quinnipiac

2. Alabama  vs  15. Robert Morris

2. Tennessee  vs  15. Central Connecticut

2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Furman

2. St. John's  vs  15. Norfolk St.

3. Iowa St.  vs  14. Utah Valley

3. Texas Tech  vs  14. Northern Colorado

3. Kentucky  vs  14. Towson

3. Texas A&M  vs  14. Troy

4. Purdue  vs  13. Akron

4. Wisconsin  vs  13. Yale

4. Oregon  vs  13. Lipscomb

4. Clemson  vs  13. High Point

5. Arizona  vs  12. Liberty

5. Maryland  vs  12. McNeese St.

5. Missouri  vs  12. UC San Diego

5. Michigan  vs  12. Drake

6. Louisville  vs  11. Xavier

6. Mississippi St.  vs  11. Wake Forest/Oklahoma

6. Marquette  vs  11. Baylor/San Diego St.

6. Saint Mary's  vs  11. VCU

7. Memphis  vs  10. Arkansas

7. BYU  vs  10. Georgia

7. Mississippi  vs  10. Indiana

7. Kansas  vs  10. West Virginia

8. Illinois  vs  9. Vanderbilt

8. Connecticut  vs  9. Creighton

8. UCLA  vs  9. Utah St.

8. New Mexico  vs  9. Gonzaga

First Four Out - North Carolina

First Four Out - Boise St.

First Four Out - Nebraska

First Four Out - Ohio St.

Next Four Out - Dayton

Next Four Out - Cincinnati

Next Four Out - Texas

Next Four Out - SMU

Also Considered - San Francisco

Also Considered - North Texas

Also Considered - Colorado St.

An End, Near it is

Wednesday tips, ahoy.

AAC- From Ft. Worth, comes the AAC Tourney. Memphis actually won the league this year and should be pretty darn safe. They’re only 48 in KenPom, so, cool your jets.

North Texas finished 2nd and is 68. The next best is FAU at 109. This is a 1-bid league if Memphis wins. Memphis two losses were to Temple and Wichita State and those teams won’t be confused with past versions.

Memphis is a big favorite but they always screw things up, so I’ll say they lose stupidly and UAB (117 KenPom) steals a bid 

Big West- The Big West travels to Henderson, NV, presumably cuz all the hotels in Vegas were already booked by other leagues. A former college roommate might live there. Anyway,  this league was fun as usual. UCSD won the thing and is 39 in KenPom! Smells like a possible West Bracket Sweet 16 team.

Not to be outdone, UC-Irvine is 65 in KenPom and was only a game back of UCSD. The Anteaters won at San Diego but got poleaxed at home by them. There’s no at-large chances here which is kind of a shame but if either wins this things, I wouldn’t want to be on the 4 or 5 line. If someone else wins, league be mad.

I’ll take UCSD and pencil them into the Sweet 16.

MEAC- They are playing once again, in beautiful Norfolk. That’s where you can visit the USS Wisconsin, the slowest ship in the fleet. Norfolk State and South Carolina State both went 11-3 in league and are 176 and 191 in KenPom respectively. The rest of the league is BAD. 

The pick is Norfolk State. They’re not as weak as previous MEAC teams, so, I’m just saying, they could be a pest as a 16-seed for someone longer than that team might like.  Could be.

Mountain West- Speaking of Vegas, the Mountain West is playing here as well.  Brother, this league is rootin’ tootin’ kind of a mess but in a good way. They have 7 top-100 KenPom teams. New Mexico won the regular season title and is 41 in KenPom, the best of the lot.

Bubble teams? All of them, really. Brian has 3 in. New Mexico, Boise State and Utah State. SDSU and Colorado State are outside looking in. I think SDSU should be in but it’s a quibble. Boise and Utah need to win a game or two to feel safe, SDSU and CSU need to win a few to make a case.

This is a fascinating tournament because I don’t think much separates these teams. I’m going to pick San Diego State just to see how things unravel (probably knock out a league foe).

Tonight's Bids

Southern:

Furman vs Wofford - This is the 5 seed playing the 6 seed for a chance to be what will probably be a 15 seed.  Furman beat Virginia a couple years ago so let's go with them again

Sun Belt:

Troy vs Arkansas St.  This is a 3 vs 4 seed game.  Arkansas State has been good but a tiebreaker put them as a 4 seed.  They are good enough to be a 13 seed if....when they win

Like bustin’ in a session but you got to call it quits

The over-sized leagues that start Tuesday, 3-11, are the Big XII and friends, SEC and ACC. That is a gal that’ll kill dem stunning.

Big XII and Friends - Houston won this league. Kansas didn’t. Kansas started the year ranked first in the nation. They finished 6th in the league.

Houston is the only likely title contender. Iowa State looked the part early but the offense has struggled mightily late. TJO’s Achilles heel as a coach at the moment.

West Virginia and Baylor are in as of now. The ‘neers are staring down a possible TCU matchup and Baylor will possibly get K-State. If we start seeing some bid thieves, next Sunday will be sweaty for those 2 if they lose their openers.

This Houston team is maybe Sampson’s best. They’re the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the nation. The tempo should worry you. They’ve susceptible to a hot shooting team but they’re the pick here and a long stay in the dance won’t surprise me.

SEC- Considering the disappointment of the football season, the league has rebounded nicely in the hoops portion of it, satisfying all its hundred of hoops fans.

Auburn, Tennessee and Florida can all win the big one. Alabama can make a Final 4. If Kentucky finds some defense and A&M some offense, deep runs can happen for those 2. Don’t sleep on Ole Miss, either. This league has earned its stripes.

On the bubble side of things, Texas and Oklahoma are squarely in it. A loss to Georgia would be a bad idea. I think Texas is toast and not the good kind you have with a nice steak.

The pick is Tennessee but flip a coin here.

ACC- What Duke did to this league was criminal this year. A KenPom era record conference offensive rating. A record that shattered the previous record.

We should note Clemson and Louisville went 18-2 in the league. The league isn’t classic ACC good, but that’s still impressive. Louisville quietly went 25-6 overall and is 23 in KenPom. I’m a Kelsey-ite, so I think this is just the beginning for them.

UNC, Wake and SMU need a big week. UNC blew a great opportunity last night but it was really a microcosm of their season. I’m probably more bullish on UNC getting in than Brian but they can’t lose Wednesday. Wake would get them Thursday in what a feels like a possible play-in. In theory, SMU has the easiest path to find some wins and a bid, getting FSU/Cuse and Clemson potentially. They have a chance.

The pick is Duke to cap off a remarkable ACC season.

Light On My Side as my Ego Becomes

This Tuesday, 3-11, conference tournament really kicks into gear. Let’s take a look at the mid-major portion. 

Guaranteed to turn it out as bad as Dolemite.

WAC- From Vegas, the WAC rolls the dice or something. Utah Valley went 15-1 in league play to win by 2 games over Grand Canyon. The Wolverines only loss was by 18 at Gramd Canyon last month. Utah Valley has to win to get in. No at-large here.

Grand Canyon is 24 spots better in KenPom than Utah Valley but also needs to win to get in. They lost their last regular season game at Abilene Christian. I’m taking them to win this but neither team strikes me as a threat to win a game in the dance.

SWAC - The SWAC is playing in Atlanta. The winner will be in the play-in game. Southern won the regular season title and is 229 in KenPom. Jackson State finished 2nd and is 256 in KenPom. Only 3 other teams are above 300 in KenPom.

Southern beat Jackson State in their only meeting by 2 in overtime at Southern. I’ll take Jackson State but my picks are flaming out HARD.

Conference USA- This is still a league, huh? Anyway, they’re playing this thing in Huntsville. Midnight Express legend, Bobby Eaton was from Huntsville. Who will survive this scaffold match-like tourney?

The league is actually 9th overall in KenPom. Liberty won the regular season title, doing some pool cleaning by finishing 13-5 and 62nd in KenPom.

Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State finished a game back and are 115th and 118th in KenPom. JSU does have a win at home over Liberty.

Though I’m a dedicated LaTech fan and they can win this, Liberty is pretty good. They’re 6th and 11th in effective fg% on offense and defense, respectively. As a respected member of the college basketball community, it’s my duty to be fair and unbiased and pick Liberty, but won’t be mad to see them choke on some chlorine tablets.

MAAC - Playing in Atlantic City, the MAAC, who is considering a name change tips on Tuesday as well. Quinnipiac won the regular season title. They play fast and loose and wildly inefficiently. 

Merrimack finished 2nd as is the only league team inside the KenPom top-200 at 186. They split with Q this season. Manhattan is 228 in KenPom and finished T4. They’re also the pick because I like their name better for spelling purposes. That’s the hard hitting analysis devoted readers demand.

Conference Tournaments/Bids

American East

#1 Seed: Bryant

My Pick: Bryant

Big Sky

#1 Seed: No. Colorado

My Pick: Montana

And the first bid goes out today as the Ohio Valley Championship is today.

#1 SEMS vs #2 SIUE

Let's go with the SIUE Cougars in what will be a 16 seed.

And Purdue lost yesterday.

Friday Bracketology

1. Auburn  vs  16. Bucknell/Southeast Missouri St.
1. Duke  vs  16. Nebraska Omaha/Southern
1. Houston  vs  16. Bryant
1. Florida  vs  16. Quinnipiac
2. Alabama  vs  15. Robert Morris
2. Tennessee  vs  15. Central Connecticut
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Northern Colorado
2. St. John's  vs  15. Norfolk St.
3. Wisconsin  vs  14. Utah Valley
3. Texas Tech  vs  14. Chattanooga
3. Purdue  vs  14. Towson
3. Iowa St.  vs  14. Akron
4. Texas A&M  vs  13. South Alabama
4. Kentucky  vs  13. Liberty
4. Michigan  vs  13. Lipscomb
4. Oregon  vs  13. High Point
5. Clemson  vs  12. Yale
5. Maryland  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Marquette  vs  12. UC San Diego
5. Arizona  vs  12. Drake
6. Missouri  vs  11. Xavier
6. Mississippi St.  vs  11. Boise St./Oklahoma
6. Louisville  vs  11. Arkansas/West Virginia
6. Saint Mary's  vs  11. VCU
7. Memphis  vs  10. Georgia
7. Mississippi  vs  10. Indiana
7. BYU  vs  10. Baylor
7. UCLA  vs  10. West Virginia
8. Kansas  vs  9. Utah St.
8. Illinois  vs  9. Creighton
8. Connecticut  vs  9. Gonzaga
8. New Mexico  vs  9. Vanderbilt

First Four Out - North Carolina

First Four Out - Ohio St.

First Four Out - Nebraska

First Four Out - Cincinnati

Next Four Out - SMU

Next Four Out - Wake Forest

Next Four Out - Texas

Next Four Out - Villanova

Also Considered - San Francisco

Also Considered - North Texas

Also Considered - Colorado St.

Why The Big Ten Can't Win the Championship (Or make the Final Four)

This is a quick Summary why the Big Ten can’t win a Championship this year and probably not even send a team to the Final Four.  First off everybody is going to be on them because they have been marketed as the second-best conference in the country, but bigger and more is not better.  Second, every team has not only a flaw but a major flaw that is being glossed over by the media.  Everybody has been quick to suck off Pitino, Pearl, and Izzo but 2 are dirty and the third is overrated.  Let’s start with that overrated coach.

Michigan State – The biggest fallacy in College Basketball is “Izzo is March”.  He’s been dominate for 30 years, they say.  I say, factually, it’s been 25 years since a Championship and it’s his only one.  All those great players and nothing.  Two generations of Richardson’s and a couple Final Fours.  Lastly, and most importantly with this team, is the media keeps talking about how they hold teams to “8 points in the last 6 minutes” or “scoreless for the last 4 minutes”.  What they don’t mention is they need to do that because they are losing before that.  That will catch up with them in March. No stud and know one to carry the team on their back in the tough games.

Prediction: 2^nd Round knockout

Michigan – Easiest to predict of them all.  No point guard and tons of turnovers.  The media hype the “double bigs” and they are impressive, but Danny Wolf is running point and he’s not a super star.  You need guards in March and they don’t got em'. 

Prediction: 2^nd Round Knockout but don’t rule out a 1^st round exist if they get a tough draw

Maryland – The Crab Five.  Love the nickname but that’s the problem.  All they have is 5 players.  They are going to have to play maximum minutes and in the condensed schedule that is hard.  I think they are underrated but don’t have the depth to go far.

Prediction: Sweet 16

Purdue – Up and Down, up and down.  Looks dominant one game and lackluster the next.  They have 2 players and the third is Fletcher Loyer.  If Smith or Kaufmann aren’t both humming along or Loyer doesn’t hammer out 6 triples they can’t win.  They are awful in the post and give up a huge percentage of 2 pointers.

Prediction: 2^nd round knockout

UCLA – They move from the Pac-12 and start to play like a 2016 Big Ten team.  Lack of talent and a horse to carry them through a tough game.  Will muck it up to try to win and ride any one of 8 players.  Can’t see them winning a couple.  Have a hard time seeing them win 1.

Prediction: 1^st Round loss

Oregon – I’ve watched this team and am impressed by them.  Nate Bittle is underrated but the problem is his playing time.  Either he can’t play max minutes, or Dana Altman won’t let him.  Guards are talented but it’s few and far between when all 3 are above average.  Most of the time 1 is great, 1 is average, and 1 is god-awful.  Currently I have this team projected as a 5 seed and they might get caught by a 12.  I think they squeak by and then beat a 4 seed.

Projection: Sweet Sixteen

Illinois – Ton’s of individual talent but no cohesiveness.  Can’t play as a team and their stars try to “get theirs”.  A good defensive team, see Blue Devils, Duke, will shut them down.  Meh.

Prediction: 1^st round upset by a mid-major

Indiana – Hey, let rally around our fired coach and make a run.  Sounds nice.  Dies in the first round when it’s real.  Their Bigs are lazy and will be ready to leave school on March 22.

Prediction: 1^st Round loss

Ohio State: I hope they don’t make it.  If they do it’s a First Four game and that doesn’t count as a first-round game.

Prediction: Team watches 1^st round at Buffalo Wild Wings or a strip club

Nebraska: See Ohio State but worse.  How are you 2-2 in Quad 3 games?

Prediction: NIT

And that leaves us with the 1 team that I think can make a run.

Wisconsin – They didn’t look into it against Michigan State and the Oregon game was a disaster, but this team has what it takes to make a run.  Good guards, including some who can play defense or hit threes.  Bigs who can step out, hit the 3 and play in the post.  Some depth, at least enough to pick up the slack.  Solid efficiency numbers, top 30 in both.  And most importantly, a stud who can score 30 a game if you need it in John Tonje.  Even Blackwell can go for 22 to 24 if needed.  The most complete Big Ten team.  Good enough to make the Final Four, not to win a championship.

Prediction:  I want to say Final Four, but I will settle for an Elite Eight.

 

Hope I can find time to write an SEC one.  The ACC writes itself.

The Polar Opposites Day of Days

On Saturday, the America East and Big Sky begin their tournaments. Let’s do it.

America East- The America East holds all their conference tournament games at campus sites. Spoiler alert, Vermont is NOT the clear cut favorite this year. They finished second in conference behind Bryant. On top of that, the Catamounts finished with the 3rd best KenPom number at 226. Now, Maine was 225 but still. 

Saying this, Vermont has won 9 in a row, including a win over Bryant. Bryant did win by 20 over Vermont early in conference play. Bryant’s resume is pretty trash. Whoever wins this league, seeding won’t be as good as Vermont has had at times.

Phil Martelli, Jr. coaches Bryant. This team pushes the tempo. Their two conference losses, they were held under 70. They won their other 14 games and scored over 70. Vermont plays slow. Like slow slow. I think they’re the pick because they can win either way, scoring and not scoring. Like the duality of man, the America East may come down to good and evil.

Big Sky- They’re playing this in Boise, home of the Gene Harris Jazz Festival. This is the best college football league typically and the hoops wasn’t bad this year either.

Montana and Northern Colorado both finished 15–3 in league and split their regular season matchups. NoCo is 132 in KenPom and Montana is 177. 3 other teams are top 200 but these two are the clear favorites.

Neither has a great non-con win. But both did beat South Dakota State. John Muir said:

“It’s always sunshine somewhere, the dew is never all dried at once; a shower is forever falling; vapor is ever rising. Eternal sunshine, eternal sunset, eternal dawn and gloaming, on sea and continents and islands, each its turn, as the round earth rolls.”

That’s why the pick is Northern Colorado.

Friday Conference Tournaments

Southern

#1 Seed: Chattanooga

My Pick: Samford Bulldogs

"Coastal"

#1 Seed: Towson

My Pick: UNC-Wilmington Seahawks

Wednesday, Thursday, Stuff

The big news from yesterday is the jockeying for the last #1 seed.  First it's Alabama, then it's Tennessee, now it's Florida.  Resumes are very similar although I would put Florida behind the other 2 based on just that.  Recency Bias squarely puts Florida as the last 1 seed.  The last weekend and maybe the conference tournament decides it.  Marquette lost to Connecticut and they are going to be a 5/6 seed ripe for an upset. 

Michigan lost to Maryland and look for my next article about why no team except for 1 from the Big Ten can make the Final Four.  Spoiler...it isn't "March is Tom Izzo"

On the bubble side, Xavier got another win and look good right now.  Underneath the hood their 1-9 Q1 record isn't much better than North Carolina.  Xavier will have a big game vs Connecticut in the Big East Tournament.  On the outside, both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh lost and will be dropped from Consideration. 

Tonight we have little real action as Conference Tournaments kick off.  Only games of note are FAU at UAB and Charlotte at North Texas.  UAB and North Texas don't really have an at-large resume but I'm going to monitor them to see if there's a chance.  One of them will win the auto-bid as you can't trust Memphis.

I Do Love St. Mary's

Thursday Tips

West Coast:

#1 Seed: St. Mary's

My Pick:  St. Mary's Gaels.  I do have an abnormal love of St. Mary's. Every year I have them going to the Elite Eight and they fail.  Kurlinski is bitter because I gave him my current Final Four which included not Only St. Mary's but also Wisconsin.  Duke and Houston were my others.  He thinks my judgement is compromised, but I got married to my high school sweetheart so my judgment was compromised a long time ago.

Missouri Valley

#1 Seed: Drake

My Pick: Drake Bulldogs

Tea Parties and Plantations

Friday night conference shenanigans begin for the CAA and SoCon on Friday. I understand the Colonial is now the Coastal but names are meaningless in modern college athletics. Look it up. If it has a Big in front of it, it’s completely nonsensical.

CAA-

Fine. The Coastal, sigh, is having its tournament in DC. Better than the Wiz, I bet. Towson, 149 in KenPom, won the league, going 16-2. However, UNC-Wilmington, is 108 in KenPom. Either way, Takayo Siddle and Pat Skerry might be headed to bigger things, though, Skerry has been at Towson a long time.

Charleston and Elon are the only other plus 200 KenPom teams in the league. Look what they’ve done to our beautiful boy. Chris Mack is the coach at Charleston. Huh. I knew that but forgot. Get in the tournament, Chris, and I can think of a few Big East schools that might interested in you.

Anyway, the pick is UNCW and they’d be a team that probably scares someone for 30 minutes or so in round one 

SoCon-

SoCon is in Nashville, a city known for drunken bachelorettes. I had a guy in town from Nashville last year for a day that I toured around Milwaukee with. He loved the bike lanes which I told him were really just for a-hole drivers to pass on and sure enough, like a second later, a dude blew by us doing like 60 in a 35 in a bike lane.

Chattanooga won the league and is 110 in KenPom. They have the nations 11th best real scoring %., shoot 36.6% from 3 and 58.1% from 2. They’re awful on defense but I’m just saying, this is a bracket buster if they find a bad defensive team like Kentucky early on.

Samford is actually 106 in KenPom and is the last team to beat the Mocs who have won 11 straight.  They’re 3-4 in their last 7, however, pand have Furman in round 1 who isn’t a slouch, themselves.

UNC-Greensboro, Furman, Wofford and East Tennessee State are all in the 130-150 range in KenPom. Think this is pretty wide open. Might be worth a peek for hoops junkies.

I don’t have a feel here, but even if I did, I have no inclination to believe I’d make the right pick. So, let’s take UNC-Greensboro who have scored 49 in a loss two weeks ago and 108 in a win this past Saturday. That’s the kind of consistency I like.

Jughead and A Bunch of Old Pacs

Tomorrow, two of the more interesting conference tourneys tip off. Let’s go.

Arch Madness

Bid Thief Warning. Bubble teams will be paying attention to St. Louis this weekend which sounds like some really nasty stuff. Drake won the regular season title and feel sorta safe to get at an-large. Only 60 in KenPom, they’re not a classic Valley threat. They do own wins over Vandy and K-State.

Bradley seems like the most likely bid thief. Rumors abound Brian Wardle is the next in-line at Dayton as rumors say Anthony Grant is ready to retire. Drake and Bradley split in the regular season with the Braves beating  the Bulldogs in an ugly one last month.

Northern Iowa is 102 in KenPom and finished 3rd. Definitely capable of winning this weekend. Belmont is 132 in KenPom and Illinois State is 141. Belmont has been better since the year changed. Trending.

Bid thievery? Think so. I’ll take Northern Iowa to shock the world in St. Louis. Is it really shocking? I guess not but language is a beautiful thing.

WCC

From Las Vegas, the WCC tips off tomorrow. Wild. League is 73 years old. Crazy.

Brian is in love with St. Mary’s like a cocker spaniel looking at a plate of cookies. He’s insane. They might win this tournament but he’s still insane.

The Zags are weird. 8th in KenPom but bubbling. They could be one-and-done or make the Final 4. I have more faith in them than St. Mary’s.

You have 3 top 100 KenPom teams, in San Francisco, Santa Clara and Oregon State, sigh. USF is 63, Santa Clara is 54 and OSU is 79. Good lord, Herb Sendek is the Santa Clara coach. Let’s keep him out of the tournament, ok.

The pick is St. Mary’s just to trick Brian even more. St. Mary’s is a Dominican based school.  Members of the Dominican order were appointed by Pope Gregory IX to carry out the inquisition. Has the inquisition reached Brian?  That’s why history is important to know.

Conference Tourneys

Summit

#1 Seed: Nebraska-Omaha

My Pick:  South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Big South

#1 Seed: High Point

My Pick: High Point Panthers

#1 Seed: Central Connecticut State

My Pick: CCSU Blue Devils

Ohio Valley

#1 Seed: SE Missouri State

My Pick: Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans

Tuesday Results, Wednesday Games

The biggest news of the night was Auburn getting beat by Texas A&M.  Auburn stays the 1.1 seed, well ahead of Duke and Houston.  BYU continues their hot streak by beating Iowa State on the road.

In Bubble-Land all of the 11 seeds won while the 10 seeds split.  Indiana was the big loser on the positive side of the bracket but probably only shift down into an 11 seed with West Virginia moving up.

On the outside of the bracket North Carolina looked dominate against VaTech, Texas got a much needed win, and SMU hung on.  In the battle of the First Four out, Ohio State took one off Nebraska and those teams flip places.  Villanova lost and are going to need an Auto-Bid while Colorado State looks to be considered.

Tonight we have more good games then bubble games.  Maryland plays Michigan, Marquette plays UConn, Tennessee plays Mississippi, and the best is Florida at Alabama.  Those are all top 7 seeded teams playing each other with the last one being a banger.

Bubble Games of note include 2 from inside the bracket and 2 from outside.

10-Oklahoma hosts Missouri 

11-Xavier travels to Butler

FF-Cincinnati hosts Kansas State

NF-Pittsburgh goes to North Carolina State

Oklahoma can probably afford a loss here but Xavier falls out with a loss.  Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are on thin ice already and need the win. 

Bubble Games

Lots of great action tonight as we are entering the end game.

10 seeds:

Baylor vs TCU

Indiana vs Oregon

I think Indiana is more safe than Baylor due to the metrics but it's close.  A Hoosier win at Oregon moves them up to a 9 seed

11 seeds:

VCU vs Duquesne

Georgia vs South Carolina

West Virginia vs Utah

Arkansas vs Vanderbilt

Boise St vs Air Force

5 of the 6 11 seeds are in action tonight.  VCU is the safest because they have the Auto-Bid right now but there resume is at-large worthy.  Georgia has been hot as of late with big wins.   The other 3...kind of meh. West Virginia is average but has 5 Q1 wins.  Arkansas just got throttled by South Carolina.  Boise State has 2 Q3 losses.  Arkansas and Boise drop out with a loss

First Four:

Texas at Mississippi

North Carolina vs Virginia Tech

Nebraska vs Ohio State

This seems generous for all 3 teams (4th if you count OSU.  I have them in the next group).  Texas is 16-13, Carolina is 1-10 in Q1 games, and Nebraska has 2 Q3 losses.  Those are bad numbers and each have other flaws.  Hard to pick which one jumps somebody with a win and a loss from an 11 seed team.  Guessing Nebraska

Next Four:

Villanova vs Georgetown

SMU vs Syracuse

You think the First Four were bad?  SMU is 0-5 in Q1...that's anon-no right away.  The 145 NCSOS isn't good either.  Villanova at least has 2 Q1 wins.  Those 2 Q3 losses...and that Q4 loss really holds them down.  Yuck

Conference Tournaments Today!

Sun Belt

#1 Seed - South Alabama

My Pick - Arkansas State Red Wolves

Sun Belt

#1 Seed - Robert Morris

My Pick - Milwaukee Panthers

Sun Belt

#1 Seed - Bucknell

My Pick - Colgate Toothpaste

Duke Wins Again, and other Monday Things

Duke looked dominate again and Wake is on their last legs.  Wake tried to be physical with Duke and it worked for about 5 minutes and then things got out of control.

In the other game of note, Houston gave Kansas another loss and now the Jayhawks are looking at a 6-8 seed.  I don't feel too bad for them.  Hunter Dickenson is unlikeable.

UCLA won, North Texas did too.

Climbing, BS, Blizzards and Graft

Wednesday brings us the beginning of 4 conference tournaments. Let’s dive in.

Summit- From Sioux Falls, home of Mary Hart, the Summit League takes the court to entertain us Wednesday night. 

As a hardcore Summit League fan, I am sad to report Nebraska-Omaha won the league this year. 180th in KenPom is 4th best in the league behind South Dakota State (120), St. Thomas (124) and NDSU (125). UNO went 6-9 out of conference but rode a hot offense to the league title. Whatever they figured out at the start of league play has worked.

The other 3 are pretty close as you can tell. St. Thomas long term desire is to join the Big East. Goals, have them, kids. Anyway, the pick is South Dakota State because the Dakotas should always rep this league.

Big South-  The Big South is taking its show to Johnson City, TN, home of Del Harris, who is still alive. High Point cruised to the regular season title and is 88 in KenPom. Radford and Winthrop are the only other top-200 KenPom teams and they’re 156 and 174, so, eh.

High Point has 2 wins over AAC squads and should seriously claim that league title as well. On an 11-game winning streak, they have the 25th best offense in the nation but a god awful defense. They’re the pick and I’d love to see them scare the daylights out of a 3 or 4 seed SEC team but my confidence isn’t high on this one based on a leaky d.

NEC- The NEC wisely plays all games on campus sites. KenPom’s worst conference, the prayer here is, Central Connecticut wins this thing. They actually have the nations longest winning streak at 12 games. At 173 in KenPom, that’s 100 spots clear of the second best team.

Watch this team, Duke fans. Feels like a potential round 1 opponent.

Ohio Valley- These teams are invading Evansville starting Wednesday night. Evansville is known as “Crescent City” or “River City” and was originally named McGary’s Landing.

SE Missouri won the league and is 203 in KenPom. Only 4 other schools are top 300. SIUE, UT-Martin, Little Rock and Tennessee State. None have a positive NetRtg. 16-seed city is what Evansville is.

The pick is SE Missouri because they really are the best team. The best team doesn’t always win. It’s one of the many paradoxes of life, like, you can’t always get what you want but you might get what you need. Paint it black, SE Missouri.

Monday Bracketology

1. Auburn  vs  16. Bucknell/Southeast Missouri St.

1. Duke  vs  16. Nebraska Omaha/Southern

1. Houston  vs  16. Bryant

1. Tennessee  vs  16. Quinnipiac

2. Alabama  vs  15. Robert Morris

2. Florida  vs  15. Central Connecticut

2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Northern Colorado

2. St. John's  vs  15. Norfolk St.

3. Iowa St.  vs  14. Utah Valley

3. Texas Tech  vs  14. Chattanooga

3. Purdue  vs  14. Towson

3. Wisconsin  vs  14. Akron

4. Texas A&M  vs  13. Arkansas St.

4. Marquette  vs  13. Liberty

4. Michigan  vs  13. Lipscomb

4. Kentucky  vs  13. High Point

5. Clemson  vs  12. Yale

5. Maryland  vs  12. McNeese St.

5. Oregon  vs  12. UC San Diego

5. Arizona  vs  12. Drake

6. Missouri  vs  11. Arkansas

6. Mississippi St.  vs  11. Boise St./Georgia

6. Louisville  vs  11. Xavier/West Virginia

6. Kansas  vs  11. VCU

7. Memphis  vs  10. Oklahoma

7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. Indiana

7. Mississippi  vs  10. Baylor

7. UCLA  vs  10. Utah St.

8. BYU  vs  9. Creighton

8. Illinois  vs  9. San Diego St.

8. Connecticut  vs  9. Gonzaga

8. New Mexico  vs  9. Vanderbilt

First Four Out - North Carolina

First Four Out - Nebraska

First Four Out - Texas

First Four Out - Cincinnati

Next Four Out - SMU

Next Four Out - Ohio St.

Next Four Out - Pittsburgh

Next Four Out - Villanova

Also Considered - San Francisco

Also Considered - Wake Forest

Conference Tournaments

Well, I missed the start of the Atlantic Sun by 1 day so I already know who won the 7 vs 10 matchup...

#1 Seed - Lipscomb

My Pick - North Alabama Lions

Belts, Linear Space & Ethan Allen

Starting Tuesday, our delightful friends in the Sun Belt, Horizon & Patriot League begin their conference championship.

Sun Belt - The Fun Belt is coming to you, live from Pensacola, where rolling a barrel down the street can cost you a fine. Look it up.

The league title was shared by Arkansas State (87th in KenPom), Troy (109th), South Alabama (115th) and James Madison (154th). Love them Dukes. Marshall finished a game back and does own a win over Arkansas State. If the top-seeds hold serve (tennis or volleyball term), this could be a lowkey fun tournament.

I think any of the top 3 can be a handful in an opening round game for someone, so it behooves the league one of those teams wins. I drove through Arkansas in October and it was quite pleasant, so I’ll say Arky State comes out of this league.

Horizon- The Whore Zone opens on campus and finishes in beautiful Indianapolis and will certainly have the most compelling basketball tournament of any of the conferences having their tourneys here.

Robert Morris, named after the financier of the Revolutionary War.  He ended up in a debtors prison, so that explains a lot about American financial history. Anyway, the Governors are 152 in KenPom. Milwaukee is actually better at 136 but Bob swept the Panthers this season. And let’s face it, nobody roots for the artist formerly known as UWM.

Cleveland State and PFW are 165 and 164 in KenPom respectively. Bob has won 7 in a row and 13 of 14. They are on fire. That said, they have some weird in-league losses and that makes me hesitant to pick them. I’ll pick Cleveland State to steal a bid even though Cleveland isn’t a state unless you consider it a state of mind.

Patriot- The Patriot plays all its games at campus sites. This is a pretty terrible league. Bucknell and American split the league title, but the Bisons own a 22-point win over the Eagles after losing to them by 10 earlier in the season. This isn’t your mom’s Bucknell team of yore, though. They’re not very good.

Bucknell is 217 in KenPom, American 251. The only other schools with winning records overall are Boston and Army. Colgate could probably win this league but they’d still have a losing record.

Basically, this league is trash. Eagles eat a lot of trash, so American is the pick.

Fun In The Atlantic Sun

Rumor has it, March has begun. Whee. That means conference tournaments are starting. First up, our friends in the Atlantic Sun. They begin tomorrow, with all games on campus.

Lipscomb and North Alabama shared the regular season title, splitting their two matchups. Lipscomb is 84 in KenPom, North Alabama is 113.

Florida Gulf Coast is 163, Eastern Kentucky is 176 and Jacksonville is 183. Basically, league really wants the top 2 to be the winner. Eastern Kentucky swept Lipscomb. Rude. I prefer Lipscomb wins but what I prefer matters not. The randomness of the cosmos cares not for the whimsical desires of the individual but instead often crushes one’s whimsy like a boot to an ant.

The pick: North Alabama

Friday Bracketology

1. Auburn  vs  16. Bucknell/Southeast Missouri St.

1. Duke  vs  16. Nebraska Omaha/Southern

1. Alabama  vs  16. Bryant

1. Houston  vs  16. Quinnipiac

2. Tennessee  vs  15. Robert Morris

2. Florida  vs  15. Central Connecticut

2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Montana

2. Wisconsin  vs  15. Norfolk St.

3. Texas A&M  vs  14. Utah Valley

3. St. John's  vs  14. Chattanooga

3. Texas Tech  vs  14. Towson

3. Iowa St.  vs  14. Akron

4. Purdue  vs  13. James Madison

4. Arizona  vs  13. Liberty

4. Kentucky  vs  13. Lipscomb

4. Michigan  vs  13. High Point

5. Missouri  vs  12. Yale

5. Marquette  vs  12. McNeese St.

5. Clemson  vs  12. UC San Diego

5. Oregon  vs  12. Drake

6. Kansas  vs  11. Georgia

6. Mississippi St.  vs  11. Indiana/Baylor

6. Louisville  vs  11. Xavier/VCU

6. Maryland  vs  11. Arkansas

7. Memphis  vs  10. Oklahoma

7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. West Virginia

7. Mississippi  vs  10. Nebraska

7. UCLA  vs  10. Vanderbilt

8. BYU  vs  9. Utah St.

8. Illinois  vs  9. New Mexico

8. Creighton  vs  9. Gonzaga

8. Connecticut  vs  9. San Diego St.

First Four Out - North Carolina

First Four Out - Boise St.

First Four Out - Texas

First Four Out - Cincinnati

Next Four Out - SMU

Next Four Out - Ohio St.

Next Four Out - Pittsburgh

Next Four Out - Villanova

Also Considered - San Francisco

Also Considered - Wake Forest

Also Considered - George Mason

Also Considered - North Texas

Bubble - Good and Bad

Lots of good action from the bubble last night.  Let's see who helped and who didn't help themselves:

Bubble Positive:

Indiana and Boise State - both listed as First Four Out got wins and look to move in

SMU and Ohio State - both listed as Next Four In, got wins and look to hang out about where they are

San Francisco and Villanova - both Also Considered got wins to stay relevant

Bubble Negative:

Wake Forest - last team in and now will be out.

Texas - lost to Arkansas and will probably fall out as well.

Oklahoma - lost again and seem on the verge of falling out.  They are 5-9 in Quad 1 games which is terrific compared to the team that may take their spot, North Carolina.  They are 1-10 in Q1 games.

Hey, lets expand the tournament.....

Wednesday Notes

News from Tuesday Night include some huge Bubble wins from Georgia who beat Florida and Cincinnati who beat Baylor.  The bad news for these teams is nobody really lost that would open up a spot for them.  Baylor is going to go from a 10 seed to an 11 seed and Nebraska is now one of the last teams in but for now Georgia and Cincinnati stay out.

Other news from last night is Iowa State losing to Oklahoma State and can know say goodbye to a 2 seed.  Alabama absolutely rolled Mississippi State and now they look locked as a 1 seed.  Who's the 4th number 1 seed?  Wide open.....

Wednesday Night brings a lot of good games, highlighted by Michigan State at Maryland and plenty of bubble action.  Bubble games are highlighted by 11 seed Texas at 11 seed Arkansas.  Loser probably flips with Georgia.

Also in action include 10 seeded Vanderbilt at Texas A&M, 10 seeded Oklahoma hosting Kentucky, and 11 seeded Wake Forest vs Virginia,

On the outside looking in Indiana, Boise State, Villanova, Ohio State, and SMU are all looking to build their resume up.

Great night of basketball!