Bracketology 12/30/2024

 

Not much change from last week with most teams playing a soft schedule during winter break.

1 seed vs 16 seed
Tennessee(SEC) vs Aerican(Pat)/ALR(OVC)
Auburn vs CCSU(Neast)/Merrimack(MAAC)
Kentucky vs Southern(SWAC)
Duke(ACC) vs Hamption(CAA)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Marquette(Beast) vs UM-Lowell(Aeast)
Iowa St vs Norfolk(MEAC)
Alabama vs Lamar(Sland)
Gonzaga(WCC) vs Montana St(Bsky)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Kansas(B12) vs High Point(Bsouth)
Florida vs S.D. St(Summit)
Houston vs Milwaukeee(Hor)
Purdue vs Arkansas St(Sbelt)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Texas A&M vs Kent St(MAC)
Oregon vs Lipscomb(Asun)
Pittsburgh vs Grand Canyon(WAC)
UCLA(B1G) vs Furman(SoCon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Illinois vs Princeton(Ivy)
Baylor vs Liberty(Cusa)
Miss St vs Drake(Mvalley)
Michigan St vs Penn St/Vanderbilt
6 seed vs 11 seed
Clemson vs Ohio State/Missouri
Wisconsin vs Arizona St
Texas vs UC-San Diego(Bwest)
Michigan vs Indiana
7 seed vs 10 seed
Oklahoma vs West Virginia
Uconn vs UNC
Memphis(AAC) vs Texas Tech
Mississippi vs Arkansas
8 seed vs 9 seed
Maryland vs St.Marys
Dayton(A10) vs Cincinnati
St. John's vs San Diego St
Georgia vs Utah St(Mwest)
First Four Out
Providence
Nebraska
Boise State
Rhode Island
Next Four Out
Iowa
Xavier
New Mexico
LSU
Also Considered
Indiana
UC-Irvine
Butler
Arizona
BYU
SMU
Creighton
Nevada
Washington St

Checking In: Post Non-Con Conference Thoughts

Let’s take a look at how the conferences are shaping up as we head into the new year.  

ACC: The non-con wasn’t particularly kind to the ACC. It’s basically Duke and everyone else. Did you know, Duke has the nation’s number one KenPom defense?  They’re the lone national title contender in the league.  As of now, no other team projects as a second weekend team. Pitt is the 2nd best team by KenPom. UNC, Clemson and SMU are your only other top-40 KenPom teams. UNC needs to be very good in conference to get a bid. The win over UCLA helps but a mediocre ACC record won’t be enough. League is mediocre at best.

Big East: Speaking of mediocre, the Big East waves hello. They have 3 top-15 KenPom teams and then there is Creighton at 51. Right now, this a 3-bid league. The good news? Marquette is a legit title contender (top-20 offenses and defenses). St. John’s is a legit final 4 contender. UConn got embarrassed in Hawaii but has bounced back. Can they fix their leaky defense? Still a very good offense, if they can figure that side of the ball out, they can still be dangerous in March. As for the rest of the league, a lot of programs are going to have to ask themselves what they want to be at the end of the season.

Big Ten: The Terrapins are 11 in KenPom with UCLA 17 and Michigan State 16.  Oregon is 14. 9 more schools are in the top-50. There doesn’t appear to be a national title contender in the group but Michigan State, Oregon and Maryland can all be claimed as legit Final 4 teams. I have serious doubts about UCLA’s offense. The league title winner could be anyone. The schedule is a mess because there are 18 teams. Will the best team win it? I have my doubts. Can they get 12 bids? Possibly.

Big XII: In a bid to chase football dollars, the league may have turned over its yearly claim as best league but it’s still pretty damn good. Houston and Iowa State have top-20 offenses and defenses.  Kansas has a top-20 offense and are 26th in defense. Texas Tech is 14 overall in KenPom and Baylor 18. The top-5 are really good and Cincinnati entered league play 10-1. 8-9 teams will make the tournament. Unlike the Big Ten, I don’t think the winner of this league will possibly be a meh team. Arizona will need to play well in the league portion of their schedule. One of college basketball’s biggest disappointments this year.

SEC: The best league in the nation this year and it ain’t close. They have a prohibitive national title favorite in Auburn. Duke is second in KenPom and closer to number 6 Gonzaga than Auburn. Tennessee and Florida are top-20 offenses and defenses. Alabama, Mississippi State and Texas A&M are top-20 overall KenPom teams. The bottom team is South Carolina at 64. If Auburn comes out of this league with only 1-2 losses, I have a hard time believing they don’t cut the nets down in April.

The Rest: Gonzaga continues to pace “the rest”. They’re a legit Final 4 contender once again. Memphis and Dayton have the best wins outside Gonzaga and should win their leagues but I’m not sure those teams are second weekend teams. Others to watch are St. Mary’s, VCU, Utah St., Nevada, Boise State and maybe Liberty. 

Adjusted Final 4 are Auburn, Duke, Houston and Gonzaga 

Bracketology - 12/23/24

1 seed vs 16 seed

Tennessee(SEC) vs Aerican(Pat)/ALR(OVC)

Auburn vs CCSU(Neast)/Merrimack(MAAC)

Kentucky vs Southern(SWAC)

Duke(ACC) vs Hamption(CAA)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Gonzaga(WCC) vs UM-Lowell(Aeast)

Marquette(Beast) vs Norfolk(MEAC)

Iowa St vs Lamar(Sland)

Alabama vs Montana St(Bsky)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Kansas(B12) vs High Point(Bsouth)

Florida vs S.D. St(Summit)

Houston vs Milwaukeee(Hor)

Purdue vs Arkansas St(Sbelt)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Texas A&M vs Kent St(MAC)

Oregon vs Lipscomb(Asun)

Pittsburgh vs Grand Canyon(WAC)

UCLA(B1G) vs Furman(SoCon)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Illinois vs Princeton(Ivy)

Baylor vs Liberty(Cusa)

Miss St vs Drake(Mvalley)

Michigan St vs Penn St/Vanderbilt

6 seed vs 11 seed

Clemson vs Ohio State/Missouri

Mississippi vs Arizona St

Wisconsin vs UC-San Diego(Bwest)

San Diego St vs Indiana

7 seed vs 10 seed

Oklahoma vs West Virginia

Uconn vs UNC

Michigan vs Texas Tech

Memphis(AAC) vs Arkansas

8 seed vs 9 seed

Maryland vs St.Marys

Dayton(A10) vs Cincinnati

St. John's vs Texas

Georgia vs Utah St(Mwest)

First Four Out

Providence

Nebraska

Nevada

Rhode Island

Next Four Out

Iowa

Xavier

New Mexico

LSU

Also Considered

Indiana

UC-Irvine

Butler

Arizona

BYU

SMU

Creighton

Bracketology - 12/16/2024

1 seed vs 16 seed

Tennessee(SEC) vs Aerican(Pat)/ALR(OVC)

Auburn vs CCSU(Neast)/Merrimack(MAAC)

Kentucky vs Southern(SWAC)

Duke(ACC) vs UM-Lowell(Aeast)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Gonzaga(WCC) vs Grand Canyon(WAC)

Marquette(Beast) vs Norfolk(MEAC)

Iowa St vs Arkansas St(Sbelt)

Alabama vs Lipscomb(Asun)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Kansas(B12) vs High Point(Bsouth)

Florida vs Lamar(Sland)

Houston vs S.D. St(Summit)

Purdue vs Montana St(Bsky)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Texas A&M vs Kent St(MAC)

Oregon vs Milwaukeee(Hor)

Pittsburgh vs Charleston(CAA)

Clemson vs Furman(SoCon)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Illinois vs Columbia(Ivy)

Baylor vs Liberty(Cusa)

UCLA(B1G) vs Drake(Mvalley)

Michigan St vs Wahe Forest/Penn State

6 seed vs 11 seed

Miss St vs Ohio State/Missouri

Mississippi vs Arizona St

Wisconsin vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)

San Diego St vs Creighton

7 seed vs 10 seed

Oklahoma vs West Virginia

Uconn vs Boise State

Michigan vs Texas Tech

Memphis(AAC) vs Arkansas

8 seed vs 9 seed

Maryland vs Dayton(A10)

St.Marys vs Utah St(Mwest)

Cincinnati vs UNC

Texas vs Georgia

First Four Out

Boise State

Nebraska

Nevada

Rhode Island

Next Four Out

Iowa

Xavier

New Mexico

LSU

Also Considered

Indiana

Wake Forest

Butler

Arizona

BYU

 
1 seed vs 16 seed
Tennessee(SEC) vs Army(Pat)/SIUE(OVC)
Auburn vs CCSU(Neast)/St.Peter's(MAAC)
Kentucky vs Southern(SWAC)
Duke(ACC) vs Bryant(Aeast)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Gonzaga(WCC) vs Grand Canyon(WAC)
Kansas(B12) vs Norfolk(MEAC)
Iowa St vs Texas St(Sbelt)
Alabama vs N.Florida(Asun)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Marquette(Beast) vs Radford(Bsouth)
Florida vs McNeese(Sland)
Baylor vs S.D. St(Summit)
Purdue vs N.Colorado(Bsky)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Houston vs Kent St(MAC)
Cincinnati vs PFW(Hor)
Texas A&M vs Elon(CAA)
Memphis(AAC) vs Furman(SoCon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Pittsburgh vs Columbia(Ivy)
St. Johns vs Liberty(Cusa)
UCLA(B1G) vs Nevada/Maryland
Oregon vs Rhode Island/Penn State
6 seed vs 11 seed
Illinois vs Drake(Mvalley)
Ohio St vs Arizona St
Wisconsin vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
Texas Tech vs San Diego St
7 seed vs 10 seed
Michigan St vs West Virginia
Miss St vs Utah St(Mwest)
Mississippi vs Texas
UNC vs Arkansas
8 seed vs 9 seed
BYU vs Dayton(A10)
Oklahoma vs St.Marys
Uconn vs Michigan
Clemson vs Georgia
First Four Out
Boise State
Nebraska
Arizona
Creighton
Next Four Out
Iowa
Xavier
New México
LSU
Also Considered
Indiana
Wake Forest
Butler

Bracketology

Now that the SEC-ACC "Challenge" is done and we start to move into conference play Bracketology will start up next week.  Lots of great action so far and the race for the championship seems wide open.

TWO-WEEK OVERREACTION TIME

1. The Big XII is going to be a bloodbath.  7 teams in the top 20 of KenPom currently.  The league will get weighed down by the bottom third as the season continues, but the top third is going to be capable of making a Final 4.

2. However, Arizona has a Caleb Love problem.  Trendy pick for All-American, he’ll get his shots and I think that’ll be a problem for them.  Big test for Tommy Lloyd to figure it out.

3. Kentucky will be less sexy without Cal but probably a better at playing basketball team. Will be curious to watch them at Clemson next month and against Gonzaga. Sweet 16 seems like a ceiling but I think I’m buying Mark Pope stock?

4. Matt Norlander had the best reaction to Arizona-UW-Madison game. He doesn’t know what to take from it. Arizona dominated the boards but didn’t make 3’s. Wisconsin did. Ref show of epic proportion. Might be a game we look back at and ask how’d that happen?

5. Take a look at the daily schedule. Too many garbage games on the schedule. It’ll only get worse as power conferences continue to move away from NCAA governance. Not sure what the answer is, but way too many D-III teams getting games.

Kurly’s Incredible and Bold ‘24-‘25 Predictions

National Champ:  Gonzaga over Duke 

Final Four Others:  Texas Tech, Arizona

3 Who Will Overachieve:  Providence, Louisville & Notre Dame 

3 Who Will Underachieve:  Kansas, Texas A&M & Alabama

POY: Cooper Flagg, Duke

COY: Grant McCasland, Texas Tech

All-Americans (Position-less):

Cooper Flagg, Duke

Kam Jones, Marquette

Ryan Nembhard, Gonzaga 

Alex Karaban, UConn

RJ Davis, UNC

Preseason Top 25

 

1. Alabama

2. Houston

3. Connecticut

4. Duke

5. Kansas

6. Gonzaga

7. Iowa State

8. Tennessee

9. Auburn

10. Arkansas

11. North Carolina

12. Baylor

13. Texas A&M

14. Creighton

15. Arizona

16. BYU

17. Marquette

18. Purdue

19. Rutgers

20. Florida

21. Texas Tech

22. Texas

23. Xavier

24. Boise State

25. Cincinnati

2024-2025 Season

We are less than a week away from College Basketball.  Mini Preview coming.... 

Elite 8 Sunday

Midwest Region: 1. Purdue vs. 2. Tennessee

Brian and I were exchanging texts on Friday night where I said I think we’re simply steamrolling to a Purdue-UConn final. Tennessee’s 18-0 run against Creighton gave me pause and then they almost blew it.

The Pick: Purdue 74 Tennessee 69

South Region: 4. Duke vs. 11. NC State

We’ve now arrived at the stage where NC State is no longer cute but annoying. I get it, the world hates Duke, but do we want Purdue-NC State? I think not.

The Pick: Duke 78 NC State 73

Elite 8 Saturday

East: 1. UConn vs. 3. Illinois

UConn played their C game for a half against SDSU and then won by 30. Illinois jumped Iowa State and held on, but never really felt threatened, answering each Iowa State bucket that made it a one possession game. Impressive stuff in its own right.

Ultimately, I simply think UConn is better. Illinois can certainly shoot themselves to an upset but I have my doubts they get enough stops to fend off UConn like they did the Clones.

The Pick: UConn 82 Illinois 77

West: 4. Alabama vs. 6. Clemson

Of all the permeations you could get from the top-8 teams of this region, this one somehow feels the least likely. Neither marched in triumphantly to March.

Both got some help in the Sweet 16. UNC went ice cold in the second half from deep and they had looks. Arizona had plenty of good looks, too. Clemson didn’t do anything special to them. If I’m a UNC or Arizona fan today, I’m still confused how we lost.

Between the 2, Clemson’s win felt flukier. Banked 3’s, bail out hook shots and other makes at the shot clock. They also gave up a lot of early offensive rebounds against Zona. Zona missed a lot of second and third chances. Not sure Clemson can do that against Bama who also cleans the offensive glass. Also, I’m still bitter about the Tigers not beating the Gooophers in ‘97.

The Pick: Alabama 91 Clemson 78

Sweet 16 Midwest Preview

1. Purdue vs. 5. Gonzaga 

Another Sweet 16 for the Zags. Say what you will about them, but that is impressive in this day and age to continually be in the Sweet 16. Great teams get upset on opening weekend all the time. Great programs have down years all the time. Should probably appreciate the Zags.

As for the game, I want to find a reason to pick the Zags. Purdue can be dicey with the ball but Gonzaga typically doesn’t turn opponents over. The Zags don’t put teams on the line but Purdue is a different creature from anything any team has seen in that regard.

To win this game, the Zags need to be bucket getters. I’d also let Edey get his and pressure the Purdue guards. You’re probably not stopping Edey but if you can make the guys around him minuses, you have a chance. I don’t think the Zags are that team.

The Pick: Purdue 81 Gonzaga 79

2. Tennessee vs. 3. Creighton

The BlueJays return to the Sweet 16 and bring with them another top-25 defense predicated on not fouling and forcing bad shots. Worst team when it comes to forcing turnovers in the nation. Why do I think this matters? Tennessee’s offense is good, but not great, capable of clunkers.

Tennessee’s defense is 3rd in KenPom based largely on the nations 3rd best defensive effective fg%. They will foul a bit and good, not great at the other 2 4 Factors. Creighton rarely gets to the line, though, and is a weak offensive rebounding team, so that’s a wash.

Creighton’s offense is 11th in KenPom with the 3rd best offensive effective fg%. Another clash in numbers in the night games. This could be a classic.

The Pick: Creighton 66 Tennessee 65

Sweet 16 South Preview

2. Marquette vs. 11. NC State

Supposedly, they played for a title in 1974. Al McGuire got ejected before half. Imagine that today. 

NC State rides a 7-game winning streak into this matchup and are an interesting team. Not great in anything other than not turning it over and not bad in anything. They’re an average team who has gotten hot or lucky, depending on how you look at it, at the right time.

Marquette is a poor rebounding team but NC State is average on the glass. Marquette thrives on turnovers but NC State doesn’t turn it over. Can Marquette increase NC State turnovers? 

The difference for me is Marquette’s 55.5% effective offensive FG%. That’s an elite number and even if not turning NC State over, the offense should generate plenty of good looks. Plus, they’ll have the best player on the floor.

The Pick: Marquette 75 NC State 69

1. Houston vs. 4. Duke

Easily the best matchup of the 8 games, we have the KenPom number 2, Houston, against the KenPom number 6, Duke.

Houston likes to grind you down and play slow, but Duke isn’t exactly the showtime Lakers. They’re 245th in pace. Houston is an elite offensive rebounding team. Duke is a solid defensive rebounding team. If they can limit Houston’s second chance opportunities, that’ll be a great sign for Duke.

Duke shoots 38% from 3, 13th best in the nation. Opponents shoot 30% from 3 against Houston, 10th best in the nation. Duke has the 18th best effective offensive fg%, Houston is 2nd on the defensive side. Duke is 23rd in offensive turnover %, Houston is 3rd in defensive turnover %. 

The game will come down to whether Duke is making shots and/or limiting second chance opportunities for Houston. If they turn it over and lose on the glass, winning will be hard. Tough game to predict.

The Pick: Duke 60 Houston 59

Sweet 16 East Preview

1. UConn vs. 5. San Diego State

UConn has won 8 straight tournament games by double digits. San Diego State doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to beat them. UConn’s spurtability will let them pull away and win comfortably.

The Pick: UConn 70 San Diego State 60

2. Iowa State vs. 3. Illinois

Contrasting teams meetup in this fascinating game. Iowa State is 49th and 1st in effective offensive and defensive efficiency. The Illini are 1st and 92nd in those categories.

Looking at the 4 Factors, Illinois is actually solid across the board defensively except turning teams over. They’re 360th of 362 teams in turning the opponent over (Interestingly, Creighton is the worst). Iowa State typically doesn’t turn it over. There isn’t anything they do bad on offense, they’re just not excellent in any category. I think these two seemingly weaknesses of both teams might not matter.

The Pick: Illinois 71 Iowa State 69