1 seed vs 16 seed |
Tennessee(SEC) vs
Aerican(Pat)/ALR(OVC) |
Auburn vs
CCSU(Neast)/Merrimack(MAAC) |
Kentucky vs Southern(SWAC) |
Duke(ACC) vs Hamption(CAA) |
2 seed vs 15 seed |
Gonzaga(WCC) vs UM-Lowell(Aeast) |
Marquette(Beast) vs Norfolk(MEAC) |
Iowa St vs Lamar(Sland) |
Alabama vs Montana St(Bsky) |
3 seed vs 14 seed |
Kansas(B12) vs High Point(Bsouth) |
Florida vs S.D. St(Summit) |
Houston vs Milwaukeee(Hor) |
Purdue vs Arkansas St(Sbelt) |
4 seed vs 13 seed |
Texas A&M vs Kent St(MAC) |
Oregon vs Lipscomb(Asun) |
Pittsburgh vs Grand Canyon(WAC) |
UCLA(B1G) vs Furman(SoCon) |
5 seed vs 12 seed |
Illinois vs Princeton(Ivy) |
Baylor vs Liberty(Cusa) |
Miss St vs Drake(Mvalley) |
Michigan St vs Penn St/Vanderbilt |
6 seed vs 11 seed |
Clemson vs Ohio State/Missouri |
Mississippi vs Arizona St |
Wisconsin vs UC-San Diego(Bwest) |
San Diego St vs Indiana |
7 seed vs 10 seed |
Oklahoma vs West Virginia |
Uconn vs UNC |
Michigan vs Texas Tech |
Memphis(AAC) vs Arkansas |
8 seed vs 9 seed |
Maryland vs St.Marys |
Dayton(A10) vs Cincinnati |
St. John's vs Texas |
Georgia vs Utah St(Mwest) |
First Four Out |
Providence |
Nebraska |
Nevada |
Rhode Island |
Next Four Out |
Iowa |
Xavier |
New Mexico |
LSU |
Also Considered |
Indiana |
UC-Irvine |
Butler |
Arizona |
BYU |
SMU |
Creighton |
Monday, December 23, 2024
Bracketology - 12/23/24
Monday, December 16, 2024
Bracketology - 12/16/2024
1 seed vs 16 seed |
Tennessee(SEC) vs
Aerican(Pat)/ALR(OVC) |
Auburn vs
CCSU(Neast)/Merrimack(MAAC) |
Kentucky vs
Southern(SWAC) |
Duke(ACC) vs
UM-Lowell(Aeast) |
2 seed vs 15 seed |
Gonzaga(WCC) vs
Grand Canyon(WAC) |
Marquette(Beast)
vs Norfolk(MEAC) |
Iowa St vs
Arkansas St(Sbelt) |
Alabama vs
Lipscomb(Asun) |
3 seed vs 14 seed |
Kansas(B12) vs
High Point(Bsouth) |
Florida vs
Lamar(Sland) |
Houston vs S.D.
St(Summit) |
Purdue vs Montana
St(Bsky) |
4 seed vs 13 seed |
Texas A&M vs
Kent St(MAC) |
Oregon vs
Milwaukeee(Hor) |
Pittsburgh vs
Charleston(CAA) |
Clemson vs
Furman(SoCon) |
5 seed vs 12 seed |
Illinois vs
Columbia(Ivy) |
Baylor vs
Liberty(Cusa) |
UCLA(B1G) vs
Drake(Mvalley) |
Michigan St vs
Wahe Forest/Penn State |
6 seed vs 11 seed |
Miss St vs Ohio
State/Missouri |
Mississippi vs
Arizona St |
Wisconsin vs
UC-Irvine(Bwest) |
San Diego St vs
Creighton |
7 seed vs 10 seed |
Oklahoma vs West
Virginia |
Uconn vs Boise
State |
Michigan vs Texas
Tech |
Memphis(AAC) vs
Arkansas |
8 seed vs 9 seed |
Maryland vs
Dayton(A10) |
St.Marys vs Utah
St(Mwest) |
Cincinnati vs UNC |
Texas vs Georgia |
First Four Out |
Boise State |
Nebraska |
Nevada |
Rhode Island |
Next Four Out |
Iowa |
Xavier |
New Mexico |
LSU |
Also Considered |
Indiana |
Wake Forest |
Butler |
Arizona |
BYU |
Monday, December 9, 2024
1 seed vs 16 seed
Tennessee(SEC) vs Army(Pat)/SIUE(OVC)
Auburn vs CCSU(Neast)/St.Peter's(MAAC)
Kentucky vs Southern(SWAC)
Duke(ACC) vs Bryant(Aeast)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Gonzaga(WCC) vs Grand Canyon(WAC)
Kansas(B12) vs Norfolk(MEAC)
Iowa St vs Texas St(Sbelt)
Alabama vs N.Florida(Asun)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Marquette(Beast) vs Radford(Bsouth)
Florida vs McNeese(Sland)
Baylor vs S.D. St(Summit)
Purdue vs N.Colorado(Bsky)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Houston vs Kent St(MAC)
Cincinnati vs PFW(Hor)
Texas A&M vs Elon(CAA)
Memphis(AAC) vs Furman(SoCon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Pittsburgh vs Columbia(Ivy)
St. Johns vs Liberty(Cusa)
UCLA(B1G) vs Nevada/Maryland
Oregon vs Rhode Island/Penn State
6 seed vs 11 seed
Illinois vs Drake(Mvalley)
Ohio St vs Arizona St
Wisconsin vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
Texas Tech vs San Diego St
7 seed vs 10 seed
Michigan St vs West Virginia
Miss St vs Utah St(Mwest)
Mississippi vs Texas
UNC vs Arkansas
8 seed vs 9 seed
BYU vs Dayton(A10)
Oklahoma vs St.Marys
Uconn vs Michigan
Clemson vs Georgia
First Four Out
Boise State
Nebraska
Arizona
Creighton
Next Four Out
Iowa
Xavier
New México
LSU
Also Considered
Indiana
Wake Forest
Butler
Friday, December 6, 2024
Bracketology
Now that the SEC-ACC "Challenge" is done and we start to move into conference play Bracketology will start up next week. Lots of great action so far and the race for the championship seems wide open.
Monday, November 18, 2024
TWO-WEEK OVERREACTION TIME
1. The Big XII is going to be a bloodbath. 7 teams in the top 20 of KenPom currently. The league will get weighed down by the bottom third as the season continues, but the top third is going to be capable of making a Final 4.
2. However, Arizona has a Caleb Love problem. Trendy pick for All-American, he’ll get his shots and I think that’ll be a problem for them. Big test for Tommy Lloyd to figure it out.
3. Kentucky will be less sexy without Cal but probably a better at playing basketball team. Will be curious to watch them at Clemson next month and against Gonzaga. Sweet 16 seems like a ceiling but I think I’m buying Mark Pope stock?
4. Matt Norlander had the best reaction to Arizona-UW-Madison game. He doesn’t know what to take from it. Arizona dominated the boards but didn’t make 3’s. Wisconsin did. Ref show of epic proportion. Might be a game we look back at and ask how’d that happen?
5. Take a look at the daily schedule. Too many garbage games on the schedule. It’ll only get worse as power conferences continue to move away from NCAA governance. Not sure what the answer is, but way too many D-III teams getting games.
Sunday, November 3, 2024
Kurly’s Incredible and Bold ‘24-‘25 Predictions
National Champ: Gonzaga over Duke
Final Four Others: Texas Tech, Arizona
3 Who Will Overachieve: Providence, Louisville & Notre Dame
3 Who Will Underachieve: Kansas, Texas A&M & Alabama
POY: Cooper Flagg, Duke
COY: Grant McCasland, Texas Tech
All-Americans (Position-less):
Cooper Flagg, Duke
Kam Jones, Marquette
Ryan Nembhard, Gonzaga
Alex Karaban, UConn
RJ Davis, UNC
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Preseason Top 25
1. Alabama |
2. Houston |
3. Connecticut |
4. Duke |
5. Kansas |
6. Gonzaga |
7. Iowa State |
8. Tennessee |
9. Auburn |
10. Arkansas |
11. North Carolina |
12. Baylor |
13. Texas A&M |
14. Creighton |
15. Arizona |
16. BYU |
17. Marquette |
18. Purdue |
19. Rutgers |
20. Florida |
21. Texas Tech |
22. Texas |
23. Xavier |
24. Boise State |
25. Cincinnati |
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
Sunday, March 31, 2024
Elite 8 Sunday
Midwest Region: 1. Purdue vs. 2. Tennessee
Brian and I were exchanging texts on Friday night where I said I think we’re simply steamrolling to a Purdue-UConn final. Tennessee’s 18-0 run against Creighton gave me pause and then they almost blew it.
The Pick: Purdue 74 Tennessee 69
South Region: 4. Duke vs. 11. NC State
We’ve now arrived at the stage where NC State is no longer cute but annoying. I get it, the world hates Duke, but do we want Purdue-NC State? I think not.
The Pick: Duke 78 NC State 73
Friday, March 29, 2024
Elite 8 Saturday
East: 1. UConn vs. 3. Illinois
UConn played their C game for a half against SDSU and then won by 30. Illinois jumped Iowa State and held on, but never really felt threatened, answering each Iowa State bucket that made it a one possession game. Impressive stuff in its own right.
Ultimately, I simply think UConn is better. Illinois can certainly shoot themselves to an upset but I have my doubts they get enough stops to fend off UConn like they did the Clones.
The Pick: UConn 82 Illinois 77
West: 4. Alabama vs. 6. Clemson
Of all the permeations you could get from the top-8 teams of this region, this one somehow feels the least likely. Neither marched in triumphantly to March.
Both got some help in the Sweet 16. UNC went ice cold in the second half from deep and they had looks. Arizona had plenty of good looks, too. Clemson didn’t do anything special to them. If I’m a UNC or Arizona fan today, I’m still confused how we lost.
Between the 2, Clemson’s win felt flukier. Banked 3’s, bail out hook shots and other makes at the shot clock. They also gave up a lot of early offensive rebounds against Zona. Zona missed a lot of second and third chances. Not sure Clemson can do that against Bama who also cleans the offensive glass. Also, I’m still bitter about the Tigers not beating the Gooophers in ‘97.
The Pick: Alabama 91 Clemson 78
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Sweet 16 Midwest Preview
1. Purdue vs. 5. Gonzaga
Another Sweet 16 for the Zags. Say what you will about them, but that is impressive in this day and age to continually be in the Sweet 16. Great teams get upset on opening weekend all the time. Great programs have down years all the time. Should probably appreciate the Zags.
As for the game, I want to find a reason to pick the Zags. Purdue can be dicey with the ball but Gonzaga typically doesn’t turn opponents over. The Zags don’t put teams on the line but Purdue is a different creature from anything any team has seen in that regard.
To win this game, the Zags need to be bucket getters. I’d also let Edey get his and pressure the Purdue guards. You’re probably not stopping Edey but if you can make the guys around him minuses, you have a chance. I don’t think the Zags are that team.
The Pick: Purdue 81 Gonzaga 79
2. Tennessee vs. 3. Creighton
The BlueJays return to the Sweet 16 and bring with them another top-25 defense predicated on not fouling and forcing bad shots. Worst team when it comes to forcing turnovers in the nation. Why do I think this matters? Tennessee’s offense is good, but not great, capable of clunkers.
Tennessee’s defense is 3rd in KenPom based largely on the nations 3rd best defensive effective fg%. They will foul a bit and good, not great at the other 2 4 Factors. Creighton rarely gets to the line, though, and is a weak offensive rebounding team, so that’s a wash.
Creighton’s offense is 11th in KenPom with the 3rd best offensive effective fg%. Another clash in numbers in the night games. This could be a classic.
The Pick: Creighton 66 Tennessee 65
Sweet 16 South Preview
2. Marquette vs. 11. NC State
Supposedly, they played for a title in 1974. Al McGuire got ejected before half. Imagine that today.
NC State rides a 7-game winning streak into this matchup and are an interesting team. Not great in anything other than not turning it over and not bad in anything. They’re an average team who has gotten hot or lucky, depending on how you look at it, at the right time.
Marquette is a poor rebounding team but NC State is average on the glass. Marquette thrives on turnovers but NC State doesn’t turn it over. Can Marquette increase NC State turnovers?
The difference for me is Marquette’s 55.5% effective offensive FG%. That’s an elite number and even if not turning NC State over, the offense should generate plenty of good looks. Plus, they’ll have the best player on the floor.
The Pick: Marquette 75 NC State 69
1. Houston vs. 4. Duke
Easily the best matchup of the 8 games, we have the KenPom number 2, Houston, against the KenPom number 6, Duke.
Houston likes to grind you down and play slow, but Duke isn’t exactly the showtime Lakers. They’re 245th in pace. Houston is an elite offensive rebounding team. Duke is a solid defensive rebounding team. If they can limit Houston’s second chance opportunities, that’ll be a great sign for Duke.
Duke shoots 38% from 3, 13th best in the nation. Opponents shoot 30% from 3 against Houston, 10th best in the nation. Duke has the 18th best effective offensive fg%, Houston is 2nd on the defensive side. Duke is 23rd in offensive turnover %, Houston is 3rd in defensive turnover %.
The game will come down to whether Duke is making shots and/or limiting second chance opportunities for Houston. If they turn it over and lose on the glass, winning will be hard. Tough game to predict.
The Pick: Duke 60 Houston 59
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Sweet 16 East Preview
1. UConn vs. 5. San Diego State
UConn has won 8 straight tournament games by double digits. San Diego State doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to beat them. UConn’s spurtability will let them pull away and win comfortably.
The Pick: UConn 70 San Diego State 60
2. Iowa State vs. 3. Illinois
Contrasting teams meetup in this fascinating game. Iowa State is 49th and 1st in effective offensive and defensive efficiency. The Illini are 1st and 92nd in those categories.
Looking at the 4 Factors, Illinois is actually solid across the board defensively except turning teams over. They’re 360th of 362 teams in turning the opponent over (Interestingly, Creighton is the worst). Iowa State typically doesn’t turn it over. There isn’t anything they do bad on offense, they’re just not excellent in any category. I think these two seemingly weaknesses of both teams might not matter.
The Pick: Illinois 71 Iowa State 69
Sweet 16 West Preview
2. Arizona vs. 6. Clemson:
In what is a bit of a surprise matchup, Clemson meets Arizona in the early tip Thursday. The Wildcats like to play fast, Clemson likes to slow it down. A matchup of clashing styles.
If we look at Arizona’s 4 Factors, we don’t find anything they do bad. Clemson on the other hand is a bad offensive rebounding team and one of the worst at turning teams over. Zona is 7th in the nation in defensive rebounding %.
I’d like to find a reason to pick Clemson in an upset but I think this is a game Zona handles with relative ease.
The Pick: Arizona 82 Clemson 69
4. Alabama vs. 1. UNC
This being a Sweet 16 game at the start of the year wouldn’t have been a huge surprise. What the teams play like might be.
As we know, Bama is a bad defensive team. They are the best offense in the nation, however. That is mitigated by the Heels 6th rated defense. The one thing that Carolina doesn’t do is, turn teams over and that’s a minor blemish on Bama’s offensive scorecard.
Bama is 26th in offensive rebounding %. Carolina is 6th in defensive rebounding %. The chaos of Bama’s offense can be negated a bit by good defensive rebounding by the Heels.
Pace will electric in this game. Carolina won’t be fazed by Bama’s up-and-down style. If it’s a game that becomes a matchup of making shots, Bama is 10th in offensive effective fg% and UNC is 119th. They counter with the nation’s 15th best effective defenisve fg%. As they say, something has to give.
The Pick: UNC 101 Alabama 96
Monday, March 25, 2024
Sweet 16 Breakdown
Monday, March 18, 2024
Re-Seed Midwest
Re-Seed South
Re-Seed West
Re-Seed East
Sunday, March 17, 2024
Final Bracket for 2024
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