Fatal Flaws: Purdue Defense

When the season started, I told Brian Purdue looked like a Final 4 teams. Wins over UNC and Villanova and routes in buy games clouded my vision. Now as we begin February, Purdue is still a capable Final 4 team but it’s probably not a serious title contender because of its defense.

They have the best KenPom offense. They have the 82nd best KenPom defense. When we dive into the Four Factors, only one number is super bad and that’s turnover %. Their effective fg% defense isn’t great but being 120th still makes them above average. They’re 339th in turnover %, 314th in steal % and 334th in non-steal to%. Teams simply don’t give Purdue extra possessions by turning it over.

Remarkably, they’re 26th in defensive rebounding % and 17th in FTA/FGA. If they just turned teams over, they’d be a national title contender. It’s an incredible weakness. Give their size, the rebounding being good isn’t a surprise. 43% of opponents shots are 3’s with that size pushing teams to the perimeter. Opponents get 37.5% of their points from 3 against Purdue. That puts them 311th I the nation in defensive 3PA/FGA. A team hitting 3’s against them will pose problems.

Using Bart Torvik’s resume match at barttorvik.com, the 10 most similar teams all made the Sweet 16 or better with 3 making the Final 4. His similar team profiles page isn’t as kind, though it shows 4 similar teams making an Elite 8, 2 of them being recent Purdue teams. I think the best comp is 2015 Notre Dame who was 2nd in KenPom offense and 99th in KenPom defense.

What does this mean? Well, Purdue can win some games in March and should be a second weekend team. The defense precludes them from serious title consideration but if that number gets into the 30’s by March, they’re a team that might look like Duke of 2015 instead of 2015 Notre Dame.