Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss: Villanova

Earlier this season, I saw Villanova mightily fight Purdue to the wire in a loss. My inclination at the time was they were an ok team but no threat come March. Add a loss to Baylor on December 12th where they only scored 36 points in a 21-point drubbing that was followed up by a 20-point loss at Creighton and part of me wondered if they were even a tournament team.

Well, fast forward a month later and this is a Final 4 capable team. They’re 7th in AdjustedO and 13th in AdjustedD. They’re riding a 6-game winning streak as they enter tonight’s game against Marquette and currently favored in every game left on their schedule. As they say, ‘Nova comin’.

When we think of Nova, we remember the national title teams with crazy good offenses. The offense remains quite efficient. They don’t turn it over and they rebound their misses. They’re 16th in turnover % and 56th in offensive rebounding %. They don’t get to the line often but are 4th in the nation in FT%. They still love the 3-ball. 39% of all points come from beyond the arc and they shoot 36% Fromm their, 58th in the nation.

The effective fg% is 51.8%, which is ok. That’s 100th in the land. What’s interesting is, they’re one of the slowest teams around, 355th in pace. They are glacially slow. What does this mean? A good defensive team like Baylor can hold them to 36 on a bad shooting night. What helps offset this some, is the rebounding on the offensive glass. Still, there’s a lot of Virginia in them.

The defense is good enough. They don’t do anything extraordinarily well but don’t have any deficiencies. This isn’t a defense that will wow you but it won’t cost them many, if any, games.

This is also a veteran-laden squad. The majority of the minutes are going to juniors and seniors outside sophomore Eric Dixon. Dixon is starting to assert himself as a force and is the next great Nova player. They also have welcomed back former Burger Boy, Bryan Antoine. He’s only played 6 games but as he gets into game shape, he could be a difference maker as the season moves along. Up and down the lineup, you find incredibly solid basketball players. This is the team coaches want to emulate.

Nova is probably the most improved team since November. They’re capable of making the Final 4. Tempo and that 36 point game give me pause, but as built and as improving, it seems that game is the outlier. They’re the leaders of the Big East and have the opportunity to get a top seed come March.