So, the ACC

The ACC is bad this year. It’s Duke and who knows. James Madison beat Virginia. DePaul went to Louisville and won last night. So, is the ACC historically bad or is this what the league is now? The results surprised me.

I looked at KenPom conference rankings for the last decade or so and this is what we found. I broke it down into 3 distinct periods.

Covid Years

2021-22 +12.17 5th in the nation 

2020-21 +13.22 5th in the nation

2019-20 +11.45 4th in the nation

Post-Expansion

2018-19 +15.33 3rd in the nation; National Champion Virginia

2017-18 +15.71 2nd in the nation

2016-17 +16.02 2nd in the nation; National Champion UNC

2015-16 +16.70 2nd in the nation; Runner-Up UNC, Syracuse Final 4

2014-15 +13.61 3rd in the nation; National Champion Duke

2013-14 +13.04 3rd in the nation 

Pre-Expansion (Limited to 3 years, post-Duke title)

2012-13 +11.09 6th in the nation 

2011-12 +10.02 5th in the nation

2010-11 +13.16 3rd in the nation

My thesis as I thought about this was expansion was a losing bet by the league. I think I’m wrong and it’s as simple as a covid-issue or the cyclical nature of sports. It’s simply possible the league is down. UNC is in a mini-reboot and Louisville is finally paying the price for its many transgressions. Syracuse is worth a closer case study and I doubt their long term prognosis post-Boeheim is good in the ACC.

Virginia is having its Maryland post-title hangover right now as well. It’s  possible and maybe likely they’ve peaked as a program under Tony Bennett. That’s not a shot at Bennett but it wouldn’t be the first time the mountain was climbed and there was no return.

The league has a lot of mediocrity right now and there’s an opportunity for someone to rise up and challenge Tobacco Road. Georgia Tech, Maryland and Wake Forest have done it in the past. I just don’t know who it is right now.

The 3 years prior to expansion weren’t great. The league was better post-expansion and for whatever reason has stagnated the last 3 years. It’s possible revenue is or becomes an issue that continues this stagnation. The ACC TV deal is dwarfed by what the Big 14 and SEC get. While that is seen as primarily a football dividing force, those leagues can afford better facilities and coaches. The league probably should be weary of being raided, despite contracts.

The ACC is in a weird spot. The basketball league, it’s bread and butter is having a bad year. Whatever the cause, it’s something that needs fixing sooner than later.