Bracketology - 1st of the Year

 And Bracketology is back!

1 seed vs 16 seed

Baylor (Big12) vs Campbell (BigSouth)/Nicholls St (Sland)

Duke (ACC) vs T.Southern (SWAC)/Howard (MEAC)

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Liberty (Asun)

Purdue vs Princeton (Ivy)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Arizona vs Weber St (BigSky)

Michigan St (Big10) vs Texas St (Sbelt)

UCLA vs Navy (Pat)

Kansas vs UC-Irvine (BigWest)

3 seed vs 14 seed

USC (Pac12) vs New Mexico St (WAC)

Houston (AAC) vs Toledo (MAC)

LSU (SEC) vs Vermont (Aeast)

Villanova vs Wagner (NEC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Ohio St vs Towson (Col)

Iowa State vs Chatanooga (SoCon)

Tennessee vs Oakland (Hor)

Auburn vs S.Dakota St (Summit)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Kentucky vs UAB (C-USA)

Alabama vs Iona (MAAC)

Seton Hall vs Davidson (A10)

Xavier vs Belmont (OVC)

6 seed vs 11 seed

Texas vs S.Diego St/N'Western

Illinois vs Creighton/Miss St

Texas Tech vs St. Mary's

Uconn vs Arkansas

7 seed vs 10 seed

Loyola (Mvalley) vs Wake Forest

Providence (Beast) vs Virginia Tech

Colorado St(Mwest) vs San Francisco

Iowa vs Indiana

8 seed vs 9 seed

West Virginia vs Florida

Wisconsin vs UNC

BYU vs Oklahoma

Michigan vs Minnesota

First Four Out

Murray St

Fresno St

UCF

Utah State

Next Four Out

TCU

Cincinnati

DePaul

Clemson

Also Considered

Marquette

Monmouth

Memphis

St. Bonaventure

Louisville

Wyoming

So, the ACC

The ACC is bad this year. It’s Duke and who knows. James Madison beat Virginia. DePaul went to Louisville and won last night. So, is the ACC historically bad or is this what the league is now? The results surprised me.

I looked at KenPom conference rankings for the last decade or so and this is what we found. I broke it down into 3 distinct periods.

Covid Years

2021-22 +12.17 5th in the nation 

2020-21 +13.22 5th in the nation

2019-20 +11.45 4th in the nation

Post-Expansion

2018-19 +15.33 3rd in the nation; National Champion Virginia

2017-18 +15.71 2nd in the nation

2016-17 +16.02 2nd in the nation; National Champion UNC

2015-16 +16.70 2nd in the nation; Runner-Up UNC, Syracuse Final 4

2014-15 +13.61 3rd in the nation; National Champion Duke

2013-14 +13.04 3rd in the nation 

Pre-Expansion (Limited to 3 years, post-Duke title)

2012-13 +11.09 6th in the nation 

2011-12 +10.02 5th in the nation

2010-11 +13.16 3rd in the nation

My thesis as I thought about this was expansion was a losing bet by the league. I think I’m wrong and it’s as simple as a covid-issue or the cyclical nature of sports. It’s simply possible the league is down. UNC is in a mini-reboot and Louisville is finally paying the price for its many transgressions. Syracuse is worth a closer case study and I doubt their long term prognosis post-Boeheim is good in the ACC.

Virginia is having its Maryland post-title hangover right now as well. It’s  possible and maybe likely they’ve peaked as a program under Tony Bennett. That’s not a shot at Bennett but it wouldn’t be the first time the mountain was climbed and there was no return.

The league has a lot of mediocrity right now and there’s an opportunity for someone to rise up and challenge Tobacco Road. Georgia Tech, Maryland and Wake Forest have done it in the past. I just don’t know who it is right now.

The 3 years prior to expansion weren’t great. The league was better post-expansion and for whatever reason has stagnated the last 3 years. It’s possible revenue is or becomes an issue that continues this stagnation. The ACC TV deal is dwarfed by what the Big 14 and SEC get. While that is seen as primarily a football dividing force, those leagues can afford better facilities and coaches. The league probably should be weary of being raided, despite contracts.

The ACC is in a weird spot. The basketball league, it’s bread and butter is having a bad year. Whatever the cause, it’s something that needs fixing sooner than later.

The Maryland Problem

Mark Turgeon stepped down as coach at Maryland today after a decade on the sideline. Turgeon replaced Gary Williams who had been at Maryland for 20 years.

The Terps were co-champs of the Big 14 in 2020, the highlight of the Turgeon era. Did you remember that? Don’t worry, most people didn’t. He also had one Sweet 16, back in 2016. That was the Terps only trip to the 2nd weekend since 2003.

Turgeon isn’t a bad coach. He was just a weird fit in Maryland. He took the the job before the move to the Big 14 and that had to change his approach to the job and it never seemed to have any momentum. He had success at Wichita State and Texas A&M and it seems plausible something along those lines will make sense in the future. It was reported he actually wanted the Marquette job this past summer.

The bigger issue in this story is what is Maryland basketball in 2021? Before the move to the Big 14, Maryland was what Virginia is now, the foil to the blue bloods of Tobacco Road. Though Virginia doesn’t play the “world (ACC offices) is against us” game, they’ve seemlessly replaced Maryland in the role of foil. 

In the Big 14, they’re just another faceless team. They have no natural rival. The pocketbooks are fatter but the program the school prided itself on is a nondescript entity playing against Penn State and Nebraska on a random weeknight. Maryland-Duke, Maryland-UNC was must see TV. Can you name one time Maryland was a must see game in the Big 14? The answer is no.

Maryland isn’t a blue blood but they broke through and won a title this century. Florida, UVA and Baylor have done the same. It’s a small fraternity to be part of. They seem further away from getting back there than ever. Maybe they shouldn’t compete for a title every year but they should matter. They haven’t in a long time and I’m not sure they will as long as they’re just another uniform in a league they don’t belong.