November OVERREACTIONS

 ACC:

Well, it’s Duke and a lot of okayish teams. The second best team has yet to emerge and at the bottom, Pitt is currently 199th in KenPom. Jeff Capel’s seat is hot enough to eject itself. The ACC is all about Duke this year. A gutsy win over Gonzaga on Friday night has Blue Devil fans with visions of glory and probably should have those. Paolo Banchero and Wendell Moore are a dynamic duo. The lack of 3-point shooting again is a potential problem and mystery in roster construction but they really protect the ball and are still 54th in effective fg%. Their the only contender from the ACC

Big East:

The Big East still looks like Villanova’s league but they have some depth issues that reared its head in losses to UCLA and Purdue. UConn could win the league. It’s between these two at the moment. The league needs to recruit better as there are a lot of one-and-done March teams. 

Big XII:

The Big XII is still setting the pace as the nation’s best league. Baylor doesn’t appear to have lost a step, though, their best win to date is over a flawed Michigan State team. Kansas will need to tighten up defensively.  The loss to Dayton is a head scratcher. This isn’t a very good Dayton team. Despite this, both KU and Baylor are legit contenders. Texas and Texas Tech profile early as second weekend teams. The rest of the league is good enough that there won’t be any easy outs.

SEC

My guess is Alabama’s loss to Iona won’t look terrible at the end of the year but it’s enough to give pause to overrating the Tide. At 23 in KenPom, that would make the Crimson Tide 7th best in the league! The top of the league is going to be a bloodbath. Whoever wins the regular season title will have earned it. Georgia and Missouri bring up the rear and are not good at all. Missouri has a home-loss to UMKC, 202nd in KenPom. Right now, the league doesn’t seem to have a legit threat to win it all but it’s going to be a damn fun regular season

Big 14

I might be wrong about how good Michigan is. Even in their wins, they’ve been unimpressive largely as they try and figure out what combos work. The good news for them is, Juwan Howard has proven adept at piecing the puzzle together. The best team in the league is Purdue and they are a legit title contender. There are 10 teams in the KenPom top 50, including Wisconsin at 31 who have their best player non-Caucasian since Alando Tucker in Jonathan Davis. Sadly, they will be a factor. I’m not sold on Maryland but Northwestern looks like a potential tourney team. 10 teams from this league in March is a legit thing. Minnesota and Nebraska are 100 and 103 in KenPom, the two worst teams. It won’t surprise me if they each stea a game or two that surprises people. Purdue and Michigan are title contenders but I’m going to be surprised if that is the case for Michigan on January 1.

Pac-12:

UCLA had a nice win over Villanova and then got destroyed by Gonzaga. They still project as a title contender but that Zags game was a beat down. Arizona of all teams, is the 2nd best in the league right now. Tommy Lloyd has come in blazing. They blew out Michigan after surviving Wichita State in overtime. The other 4 wins are over cupcakes but this is the kind of start to the season the Wildcats needed. USC looks like a second weekend team, as well. The league drops off precipitously after that with Oregon checking in at 52 and they look a lot worse than that. That may have been a short lived Pac-12 renaissance.

The Rest:

- Good luck figuring out Houston. They let Wisconsin jump out to a 40-20 lead on them in Vegas and then almost won the game, and probably should have. KenPom really likes them and they’d be on my short list of title contenders based solely on numbers. The defense is legit. I wouldn’t trust the offense, however. A lot of Virginia vines.

- As stated before the season, the WCC is good outside Gonzaga. St. Mary’s gagged against Wisconsin in Vegas but that’ll happen in slow tempo games. They have 4 legit March teams and as always, the Zags can cut down the nets.

- Memphis is the 3 fastest team in the nation and has KenPom’s 3rd best defense. If the offense catches up to the defense, they’ll be a problem. There are a lot of minutes being used by inefficient freshman. Can Penny clean that up? Keep an eye on that