Friday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs R.Morris(NEC)/Monmouth(MAAC)

Baylor (B12) vs NorfolkSt(MEAC)/SD St (Summt)

SanDiegoSt (Mwest) vs PV A&M (SWAC)

Kansas vs Winthrop (Bsouth)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Louisville (ACC) vs Austin Peay (OVC)

Dayton (A10) vs UALR (Sbelt)

Duke vs Montana (Bsky)

Florida State vs Bowling Green (MAC)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Villanova vs Wright St (Horizon)

Oregon vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)

Seton Hall (Beast) vs William and Mary (Col)

Michigan St (B1G) vs Colgate (Patriot)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Maryland vs New Mexico St (WAC)

Kentucky vs North Texas (Cusa)

West Virginia vs Vermont (Aeast)

Auburn vs Liberty (Asun)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Butler vs SFA (Sland)

Penn St vs Yale (Ivy)

Colorado vs ETSU (SoCon)

Iowa vs N. Iowa (Mvalley)

6 seed vs 11 seed

Marquette vs Virginia/Cincinnati

LSU (SEC) vs St.Louis/Utah State

Wichita St vs Oklahoma

Illinois vs BYU

7 seed vs 10 seed

Rutgers vs NC State

USC (P12) vs St. Mary's

Wisconsin vs VCU

Indiana vs Texas Tech

8 seed vs 9 seed

Stanford vs Michigan

Arkansas vs Ohio State

Houston (AAC) vs Creighton

Arizona vs Memphis

First Four Out

Rhode Island

Florida

Mississippi State

Richmond

Next Four Out

Texas

Xavier

DePaul

Georgetown

Also Considered

Utah

TCU

Syracuse

Pittsburgh

St. John's

Virginia Tech

Tennessee

SMU

Georgia

Washington

Purdue

Alabama

Minnesota

Big East?

Using KenPom, the Big East is the third best conference. The Big 14 stands head and shoulders at number one with the Big XII at 2. For awhile, the Big East was threatening to send 7-9 schools to the dance. This is no longer the case but the league will get between 5 and 7 teams into the dance. Are they contenders?

Two teams look like they’re separating themselves. Seton Hall sits at 7-0 and Villanova is at 7-1. Not surprisingly, they both are top 20 KenPom teams. Villanova’s only blemish is at Marquette. The Pirates challenged themselves in non-conference and went an uninspiring 8-4 but have now won 9 straight including 4 road league games. They’ve yet to travel to Villanova, Marquette or Creighton, though. Nova beat Kansas out of league but got clobbered by Ohio State. As of now, their two matchups in February seem likely to decide the league regular season champ.

The next tier is Butler, Creighton and Marquette. Butler worked its way into the top 5 at one point before a 3 game skid sent them back to reality. Quite honestly, they should probably have lost 4 in a row but they stole a win from Marquette last Friday at Hinkle. Creighton is 29th in KenPom but their best wins at the moment are over Texas Tech and Marquette. As for Marquette, they’ve been giving games away in league play. Losses in overtime to Providence and Butler are the difference between 6-2 and looking like a 5 seed versus 4-4 and hugging the 7/8 line.

The rest of the league isn’t chopped liver and any night can be a loss. Georgetown is 54th in KenPom but roster attrition has probably left them a spoiler. Xavier is 59 and injuries have left them on the bubble. They are a major disappointment this year. DePaul is bringing up the rear but are not the worst team in the league, even at 1-6. The conference season has been a disappointment but if you want to take a flyer on a February bounce back team, you could do worse. Providence started league play hot but have lost 3 in a row. Unless they get hot, it’s autobid or bust after a bad non-conference slate. They’re another disappointment. To their credit, St. John’s has been better than expected but lack the horses. Nonetheless, I think Mike Anderson has done a good job and might be the guy that finally finds them some consistency.

I’d say we don’t have a national title contender here but who knows in 2020. Seton Hall has a great defense and a good enough offense. They are certainly a seasoned team, though I wonder about the coach. They seem the most legit squad as Villanova’s 60th rated defense is a major concern regarding a deep run.

Let’s see how things look at the end of February but I’d guess this is a 5-bid league with 1 Final 4 contender in the group.

Monday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs R.Morris(NEC)/Monmouth(MAAC)

Baylor (B12) vs NorfolkSt(MEAC)/SD St (Summt)

SanDiegoSt (Mwest) vs PV A&M (SWAC)

Kansas vs Winthrop (Bsouth)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Florida State (ACC) vs Austin Peay (OVC)

Dayton (A10) vs UALR (Sbelt)

Duke vs Montana (Bsky)

Louisville vs Colgate (Patriot)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Villanova vs Wright St (Horizon)

Oregon vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)

Seton Hall (Beast) vs William and Mary (Col)

West Virginia vs North Texas (Cusa)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Michigan St (B1G) vs New Mexico St (WAC)

Maryland vs SFA (Sland)

Auburn vs Vermont (Aeast)

Kentucky vs Liberty (Asun)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Butler vs Akron (MAC)

Penn St vs Yale (Ivy)

Colorado vs ETSU (SoCon)

Iowa vs N. Iowa (Mvalley)

6 seed vs 11 seed

Marquette vs St.Louis/SMU

LSU (SEC) vs Richmond/Florida

Wichita St vs BYU

Indiana vs Oklahoma

7 seed vs 10 seed

Illinois vs NC State

Rutgers vs St. Mary's

Wisconsin vs VCU

Arkansas vs Texas Tech

8 seed vs 9 seed

Stanford vs Michigan

USC (P12) vs Ohio State

Houston (AAC) vs Creighton

Arizona vs Memphis

First Four Out

Xavier

Cincinnati

Utah State

Rhode Island

Next Four Out

Virginia

DePaul

Texas

Georgetown

Also Considered

Utah

TCU

Syracuse

Pittsburgh

St. John's

Virginia Tech

Tennessee

Mississippi State

Georgia

Washington

Purdue

Alabama

Minnesota

It’s all Quite Confusing

We’ve been beating this horse all season but as we begin the last week of January, a truth remains, this season is weird. The Big Ten can’t define itself. The ACC is the worst it has been in a long time and it’s still the 4th best league overall for KenPom. The Big East has a lot of solid teams but not a single great team. KenPom top 10 includes a Mountain West, A10 and WCC team.

As of this morning, Duke and Kansas have top-10 offensive and defensive efficiency teams. Kansas lost Silvio De Sousa for most of the rest of the regular season. Baylor, Michigan State and Louisville have top-20 offenses and defenses. Michigan State got a nice win at Minnesota yesterday after losing at Indiana. I keep waiting for the Spartans to take firm control of the Big Ten and they are favored for almost all of their games in February. Baylor’s win at Florida was an impressive victory. Louisville is on a 6-game winning streak and will be favored in all but one game the remainder of the year. Normally, you’d look at their remaining schedule and see 4-5 losses but I’m not sure this year.

I think those are the 5 best squads in the nation. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they lost on the opening weekend of the tournament.

Fun with numbers:

Virginia has a bad offense. They average less than a point per possession and are 258th in the nation in offense. Not having NBA players exposes the problem with Bennett Ball, cc: Wisconsin sports writers.

Texas Tech has the 108th offense which isn’t that far off what they were last season at this point. Will the offense catch up with the defense this year like last?


Gonzaga and Dayton own the two most efficient offenses and are 40th and 39th in defense. If those defensive numbers don’t improve dramatically, top 20ish by March, be weary of them as well. In the Zags defense, they will have 3 games against BYU and St. Mary’s, both are top 12 offenses.

Iowa, LSU and Oregon are top 6 offenses with Oregon’s 79th ranked defense being the best of the bunch. Creighton and BYU have top 10 offenses, too, but the defenses are bad. It’s a beautiful mess.

Conference Troubles

Now, I know conference win and loss records are not taken into consideration when the bracket is built...however, there are some pretty awful records out there right now.  I'm not saying these teams are done for but all the pundits who keep talking about it not mattering are making some large assumptions on how February is going to go for these teams.  Yes, 9-11 in the Big Ten will get you in, probably without issue but that a huge leap from where these teams are as of 1/26.  Let's take a look at a couple of them.

Ohio State 2-6 in conference, 1-6 in their last 7.  A top 5 team in most polls at one time in the season the Buckeyes have fallen hard.  They have 12 games remaining which is basically 1 game against each Big 14 team.  They will need to go 7-5 at a minimum and it starts at Northwestern today

Michigan 2-6 in conference, 1-5 in their last 7.  They were in the top 10 for awhile but the wheels have come off.  Their schedule looks similar to Ohio State but they still have Nebraska twice.  I'm going out on a limb and saying only 1 of these teams makes it come March

Washington 2-6 in conference, 2-7 in their last 9.  They were reeling when they lost Quade Green.  Now I think its over.  An NIT bid is probably in their future.

Memphis 3-3 in conference, 2-4 in the last 6.  3-3 isnt' terrible but this is the AAC and not the B1G.  Memphis had high hopes but mashing up a bunch of freshman and hoping for a team does not always work.  Wiseman left and two players haven't livid up to the hype.  There are plenty of opportunities for wins but outside of Houston Quad 1 types aren't out there.  This is a double digit seed team at best.

Thursday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs R.Morris(NEC)/Monmouth(MAAC)

Baylor (B12) vs NorfolkSt(MEAC)/ND St (Summt)

SanDiegoSt (Mwest) vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)

Kansas vs Winthrop (Bsouth)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Florida State (ACC) vs Wright St (Horizon)

Dayton (A10) vs Austin Peay (OVC)

Duke vs UALR (Sbelt)

Louisville vs Tex Southern(SWAC)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Michigan St (B1G) vs SFA (Sland)

Villanova vs Montana (Bsky)

Oregon vs Colgate (Patriot)

Seton Hall (Beast) vs Loyola-Chi (Mvalley)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Maryland vs William and Mary (Col)

West Virginia vs W.Kentucky (Cusa)

Auburn vs New Mexico St (WAC)

Kentucky vs Stony Brook (Aeast)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Butler vs Akron (MAC)

Wichita St vs Yale (Ivy)

Colorado vs ETSU (SoCon)

Marquette vs Richmond/Cincinnati

6 seed vs 11 seed

Iowa vs Xavier/Oklahoma

Arizona vs BYU

Memphis vs St. Mary's

LSU (SEC) vs Liberty (Asun)

7 seed vs 10 seed

Penn St vs VCU

Wisconsin vs USC (P12)

Stanford vs NC State

Indiana vs Northern Iowa

8 seed vs 9 seed

Michigan vs Arkansas

Ohio State vs Texas Tech

Creighton vs Rutgers

Illinois vs Houston (AAC)

First Four Out

Florida

Minnesota

Mississippi State

Georgetwon

Next Four Out

SMU

DePaul

Texas

TCU

Also Considered

Utah

Virginia

George Mason

St. Louis

Pittsburgh

St. John's

Virginia Tech

Tennessee

Utah State

Georgia

Washington

Purdue

So, San Diego State

San Diego State is the last undefeated team in the nation and currently projecting as a 1-seed. Welcome to college hoops in 2020. Are they actually good?

The schedule isn’t very helpful in deducing how good they are. The best win is a neutral court win over Iowa. Iowa is up to 14 in KenPom but don’t play defense. The Aztecs stomped Creighton on a neutral court as well, winning by 31. Their best win might be a win at BYU early in the year.
I’m not sure we’ll learn much the rest of the season. The Mountain West isn’t terrible but it’s not as strong as it has been in the past. The only other Top 100 KenPom team is Utah State who is 65 and they already won at Utah State. It’s fair to say, anyone running through any league undefeated accomplished something incredible and that’s correct. The WCC is rated higher but not by much and we don’t blink an eye when the Zags get a 1-seed.

A lot of that is goodwill. By that, Gonzaga has proved they belong. The Aztecs, while very good under Steve Fisher and a perennially tourney team, they weren’t a regular final four contender. It isn’t fair to hold that against San Diego State. If they go undefeated, they’re a 1-seed.

The team itself is 29th in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency.  They’re 9th overall in KenPom. They do everything well on defense except foul too much. They’re 8th in effective defensive fg%, 40th in turnover % and 36th in rebounding %.

Offensively, they’re 26th in 3-point shooting, so they can outshoot you and defend you. The only thing they do poorly is get to the line. They protect the ball and get enough offensive rebounds. It’s a very solid team if we look at just the numbers.

Junior guard Malachi Flynn is the best player on the Aztecs. He’s a 6’ 1” guard with nearly a 54% real shooting %. He has a nifty 30.6% assist rate and protects the ball. Kid is a great college basketball player. They get contributions from quite a few other guys and the other names to know are big man Yanni Wetzell, an efficient offensive player and good rebounder on both ends. Junior Jordan Schakel is a good shooter and junior Matt Mitchell is another very efficient player. This a team full of good basketball players.

I wanted to dismiss them based on the schedule but this is a pretty good team. As the season progresses, they will be solid favorites in the rest of their games.  Chances are, they’ll slip up somewhere. Either way, with no clear cut favorites this year, dismiss them at your peril.

Friday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Grambling(SWAC)/Quinnipac(MAAC)

Duke (ACC) vs NCA&T(MEAC)Albany (Aeast)

Baylor (B12) vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)

SanDiegoSt (Mwest) vs Robert Morris (NEC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Butler vs Neb-Omaha(Summit)

Kansas vs Wright St (Horizon)

Dayton (A10) vs Charlotte (Cusa)

Florida State vs Austin Peay (OVC)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Michigan St (B1G) vs Radford(Bsouth)

Louisville vs Montana (Bsky)

West Virginia vs Colgate (Patriot)

Auburn vs William and Mary (Col)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Oregon vs New Mexico St (WAC)

Villanova vs SFA (Sland)

Seton Hall (Beast) vs Georgia State (Sbelt)

Maryland vs ETSU (SoCon)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Michigan vs Akron (MAC)

Wichita St (AAC) vs Yale (Ivy)

Colorado vs Xavier/VCU

Kentucky vs Texas/Georgetown

6 seed vs 11 seed

Ohio State vs USC

Arkansas vs Florida

Stanford (P12) vs NC State

Wisconsin vs Oklahoma

7 seed vs 10 seed

Arizona vs Purdue

Memphis vs N.Iowa (Mvalley)

Marquette vs Liberty (Asun)

Iowa vs BYU

8 seed vs 9 seed

Penn St vs Creighton

Indiana vs Houston

Rutgers vs Texas Tech

LSU (SEC) vs Illinois

First Four Out

St. Mary's

Georgia

Virginia

Washington

Next Four Out

Richmond

Minnesota

Oklahoma State

Cincinnati

Also Considered

Utah

TCU

George Mason

St. Louis

Pittsburgh

Nevada

New Mexico

St. John's

SMU

Virginia Tech

Tennessee

Utah State

Best Teams of the Decade Who Fell Short

For every champion, there is a team or two good enough to be champions but fell short. Let’s find out the ten best teams of the past decade that fell just short. For this, I used best KenPom Adjusted Efficiency Margin by teams that didn’t win a title.

10. 2015 Villanova, +30.65 AdjEm, 4th AdjO, 12th AdjD, 5th KenPom
2015 will be a recurring theme. This Villanova team garnered a 1-seed but got upset by NC State in the second round. It did launch a viral moment with crying flute girl. Villanova would get their revenge.

9. 2019 Michigan State, +30.81 AdjEm, 5th Adj O, 9th AdjO, 3rd KenPom 
If anything, I found it surprising this was Michigan State’s best team of the decade. They earned a 1-seed and would make the Final 4.

8. 2013 Florida, +31.18 AdjEm, 9th AdjO, 3rd AdjD, 2nd KenPom
The Gators were very good between 2011-14, but usually underperforming their computer numbers. The exception was their Final 4 year in 2014. In 2013, Florida finished the year 2nd in KenPom but earned just a 3-seed. They eventually made the Elite 8 but were blown off the court by Michigan.

7. 2010 Kansas, + 31.85 AdjEm, 2nd AdjO, 8th AdjD, 2nd KenPom
Kansas entered the tournament 32-2 and a favorite to cut down the nets. They were a 1-seed and got beat in the 2nd Round by Northern Iowa and spawned a March memory for the ages, “You can’t be serious with that shot!”

6. 2017 Gonzaga, + 32.05 AdjEm, 16th AdjO, 1st AdjD, 1st KenPom
This was Mark Few’s best squad up to this time, better than the 2006 or 2013 team. Not surprisingly, this was his squad that broke through to the Final Four and ultimately, the final where they lost to North Carolina.

5. 2015 Arizona, +32.36 AdjEm, 7th AdjO, 3rd AdjD, 4th KenPom
The Wildcats happened to have their best season under Sean Miller when a lot of teams had great seasons. It wasn’t the worst thing to happen to Arizona over his tenure but this was a deep and talented squad who earned a 2-seed but lost to Wisconsin in the regional final.

4. 2019 Gonzaga, +32.85 AdjEm, 1st AdjO, 12th AdjD, 2nd KenPom
The Zags were even better a year ago than 2017, though I’d argue the numbers are so close, the 2017 team was better. The Zags were a 1-seed that lost in the regional final to Texas Tech.

3. 2011 Ohio State, +33.47 AdjEm, 1st AdjO, 12th AdjD, 1st KenPom
2011 was a wreck of a tournament. All the 1-seeds lost before the Final 4, including Ohio State who lost in the Sweet 16 to Kentucky, a 4-seed. In their defense, Kentucky finished the year 7th in KenPom and were much better than a typical 4-seed.

2. 2015 Wisconsin, +33.72 AdjEm, 1st AdjO, 35th AdjD, 2nd KenPom
I wrote after they lost that it was likely UW would never have a team this good again. With the most efficient offense of any team this decade, the Badgers were undone by an okay but not great defense. They earned a 1-seed but lost in the title game.

1. 2015 Kentucky, + 36.91 AdjEm, 6th AdjO, 1st AdjD, 1st KenPom
Despite coming up short of their perfect season, this Kentucky team was the best team of the decade. They had the 2nd best defense of the decade, trailing only last years Texas Tech team. Had they cut the nets down, they’d have an argument as the greatest team of all time.