5. Archie Miller and Indiana
Indiana is a blue-blood college basketball program. Since 1987, they’ve made two Final Fours. There’s a lot of reasons for this we won’t detail but a big part of the problem has been the coach. Enter Archie Miller. Of the coaches who have come after Zombie Bob Knight, Miller has a chance to return Indiana to its rightful place of prominence. His recruiting should match Tom Crean and surpass it at some point. Most agree he’s probably a better coach and will be able to handle the pressures of coaching at Indiana. Indiana probably projects on the outside of the bracket entering the season but if they sneak in, it’ll be a harbinger of things to come.
4. Duke and Defensive Aversion
There is not a more talented team in the nation, including Kentucky. Besides youth, Duke’s biggest question mark will once again be defensive efficiency. If they can be a top 30ish defensive team, they’re legit national title contenders. Top 20? They win it all. Ignore any early conference losses anencephaly pay attention to the defensive numbers. Duke’s season revolves around that.
3. Mid-Major Demise and that Boring 1st Weekend
Last year’s opening weekend of the tournament was largely a snooze fest. Why? Mid-major basketball is at its lowest in years. There’s a variety of reasons. We’ve discussed conference realignment poaching teams up but another factor has been the amount of graduate transfers from lower to higher programs. One of the great equalizers in March for mid-majors has been roster continuity and development. Now we’re seeing graduates move on to a higher level program to chase March glory. Coaches at mid-majors are developing players like the minor leagues to see them graduate to the big leagues. It’s unfair to keep kids that graduate at a school, it’s also a tough spot for coaches.
2. Kansas and Villanova
The Big XII and Big East and have been ruled by Kansas and Villanova. Will it continue this season? Kansas looks like a prohibitive favorite again and Villanova is the pre-season favorite. Of the two, Villanova is probably the most vulnerable. Seton Hall is a legit contender along with Xavier. Both programs will still be judged on what they do in March. Still, another banner for both seems likely.
1. The Elephant in the Room
As discussed here, college basketball will have the looming shadow of a federal investigation into the influence of shoe companies on steering recruits to schools. The general assumption is there are a lot more dominoes to fall. The longer it takes to happen, the more rumor and innuendo will spread. Louisville has almost certainly saw this become a lost season. It will be the story of the season.
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