Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Conference Realignment and the Valley

The Missouri Valley swapped Creighton for Loyola (IL) following the 2013 season. The Blue Jays were regular contenders for the Valley title and league bid to the Big Dance. While Loyola is in a big market, they don't bring the on court prowess or fanfare Creighton did.

Creighton won the Valley tournament 12 times to go with 6 regular season titles. They were at their best over their last 15 years or so in the league. 

While Omaha pales market wise with Chicago, Creighton is typically amongst leaders in attendance, drawing around 17,000 fans a game. 

Loyola hasn't been to the NCAA tournament since 1987 and haven't won a league title since 1985, having spent 34 years in the Horizon league prior to replacing Creighton. Their arena holds less than 5,000 fans.

The league still has doggedly loyal fanbases. Though overall attendance  took a hit, each member school has robust attendance numbers. Arch Madness drew over 50,000 people in Creighton's last trip (the Creighton faithful flooded St. Louis) and still continues to draw over 50,000 people despite the loss of the Creighton legions.

On the court, Loyola has not replaced Creighton. Creighton enters this season expected to make the NCAA tournament, even as they're projected anywhere form 3rd to 5th in the Big East. The Valley looks like a one-bid league if Wichita State wins both the regular season title and conference tournament. I think if they have enough chances out of league to earn a bid should they stumble in St. Louis.

The Valley isn't as strong without Creighton and adding Loyola hurt the league. As we begin the season, 3 Valley teams are in the KenPom top 100 and then the drop off is quite large. The larger problem for the league is, outside Northwen Iowa, no one has stepped up to be a regular challenger to Wichita State.

Southern Illinois is nowhere near as good as they were a decade ago. Bradley and Drake have been quite poor after one season hits in the late 2000's. 

The Valley can be a top mid-major again. Wichita State gives them a "signature" school and national attention. UNI has had very good success. The loss of Creighton stung but can be made up by improving teams at Bradley and SIU. Both appear to be moving in that direction.

Realignment Reality: League lost some firepower and a powerful fanbase. The fanbase loss has been minimal. The on the court loss has been much greater. It took a hit and needs programs with past success to reach those heights again. It's very doable.

1 comment:

Unforgivable Wetness said...

I will tell you my dream scenario, something I have spent too much time thinking about.

The Big East decides, somehow, that they want their schools to be Catholic-only, and so they drum out the secular Butler and add Dayton, Saint Louis and (after making a run at Notre Dame) St. Joseph's. And because the Bulldogs are now too good for the Horizon League, their old home before jumping for the Big East, they become the easternmost member of ... the Missouri Valley Conference.

Think about it -- Butler facing Northern Iowa and Wichita State three, four times each season? Oh, man!