My Title Game Pick

My dream matchup is tonight.  Either way I’m going to be happy…however, how happy is the question.  Let’s break this one down.

First let’s start with the game back in December.  Remember that?  Ok, now forget everything about it.  Means absolutely nothing.  These team are completely different.  Dekker is healthy, Duke is playing defense, and both teams are just going 7-8 deep to maximize the talent on the court.  So, if that game doesn’t matter, what’s the key to tonight’s game?

1.       Wisconsin’s mindset.  I heard it this morning if Wisconsin’s players will be up for tonight after such a challenging and emotional game just 48 hours ago.  The announcers said absolutely.  I say they can’t possibly be.  This is new to Wisconsin and they are riding so high there’s no place to go but down.  It won’t be a big letdown but Duke is more apt to handle the big stage.

2.       Sam Dekker’s run from late first round pick to possible lottery pick.  The Dude has been on fire taking it strong and right at people.  I’m sure he will draw Justice Winslow who “has an NBA body” wink.  I don’t think he can shut him down but I do think Winslow can hold him to 15-17 points and that’s win.

3.       The big men.  Quite “Frankly” this matchup isn’t what I’m looking forward to the most.  Frank will take Okafor out of the post and abuse him and Okafor will do the exact opposite on their offensive end and abuse him.  I can see either both scoring 20-23 or both ending up in fall trouble.  They cancel each other out.

4.       Nigel Hayes vs Jefferson/Jones.  This is the mismatch.  Jefferson can defend Hayes but then there is no offense from the 4 for Duke.  Jones is undersized and will draw Hayes out a little but Hayes should have his way with him in the interior.  If Hayes gets hot Wisconsin has a huge advantage.  If Jones can nail 2-3 three’s he can cancel that out

5.       Most importantly to me is the guard play.  Jones and Cook have been relatively quiet lately but they have the speed and quickness to get by and create against Koenig and Gasser.  The Badgers guards are good defenders but if Duke can get a slip and cause help side defense to flash to the paint they should be able to kick to the open man.  The Badgers best bet is to get their guards into the post and make Cook and Jones guard down there.  Oh, and limit Jackson’s minutes, yikes!

Ultimately I think this has the makings of a great game but what I expect Coach K to do is rotate Jefferson, Plumlee, Jones, and Okafor in a lot and maximize their fouls.  I also expect him to play just enough zone to throw off Wisconsin and protect their bigs.  I don’t think they play long stretches of zone but just enough to keep Okafor out of foul trouble.  Wisconsin doesn’t defend the three’s real well and I think that’s going to be the deal breaker.  No need for 12 or 13 but just 7 or 8 will be enough to secure the win for the Devils.

Prediction:  Duke 72, Wisconsin 65