I spent some time today going back to look at last years updates and two things struck me. First, Kurlinski and I had some excellent predictions through the year. In early February I pegged Villanova as a top 5 team who wouldn't make it out of the first weekend (they didn't) while Kurly flagged Syracuse (lost to Butler in the Sweet 16). Also our watch list had Murray State (upset Vandy as a 13 seed) and Northern Iowa (beat Kansas in round 2), not to mention my season long Butler prediction. Second, by this time last year I was giving daily updates on teams coming in and out of the bracket. Due to the "softness" of the bubble this year it would almost be impossible at this point to do the same. A couple examples of how unpredictable it is this year one could look at Kansas State who went from being out of the bracket to a 10 seed by winning 1 game. Even at 5-6 in conference they are 1 loss away from falling out should it be a bad loss. In addition to K-State let's take a look at my 8 seeds; Washington, Minnesota, Illinois, and Temple. They are 8 seeds...the top half of the bracket and are any of them more than 2 losses in a row from being out? Can you say any of those teams are "locks" yet? Even my 7 seeds don't fill me with a ton of confidence. Tennessee? Great computer numbers but only 5-5 in the SEC. St. Mary's? I'd make sure I beat Gonzaga and at least make the conference tournament final. Xavier? 2 games away from 4th in the A-10. Florida State? Just lost their best player.
It's going to be a crazy last 3 weeks of the regular season and the conference tournaments are going to mean a ton! Buckle up and enjoy the ride.
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