Conference Preview #3 - Big Ten Conference (B10)

 

3. Big Ten Conference

2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview

The Big Ten enters the 2026–27 season ranked third nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +18.68, the conference once again boasts tremendous depth and figures to be a major factor in the NCAA Tournament. The initial OCMM bracket projection has 12 Big Ten teams in the field, demonstrating just how competitive the league should be from top to bottom.

Illinois leads the way as a No. 1 seed in the initial OCMM projection, followed by Michigan State as a No. 2 seed and Nebraska as a No. 4 seed. The Fighting Illini enter the season with legitimate national championship aspirations, while Nebraska looks to build on its recent success and establish itself as a consistent presence near the top of the Big Ten standings.

One team I believe is overrated entering the season is Michigan State. There's no questioning Tom Izzo's Hall of Fame credentials, but the Spartans haven't reached the Final Four since 2019. While Michigan State has enjoyed recent tournament success, including an Elite Eight appearance in 2025, I'm not convinced the Spartans deserve the lofty expectations that come with a No. 2 seed. They'll need to prove they're capable of taking that next step before I'm completely sold.

The conference's depth becomes apparent throughout the middle seed lines. Ohio State and Purdue earn No. 6 seeds, while UCLA and Michigan both check in as No. 7 seeds. The combination of established programs and emerging contenders should make the conference race particularly interesting.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, I believe Wisconsin is once again being underrated. The Badgers enter the initial OCMM projection as a No. 11 seed, but Greg Gard has developed a reputation for getting more out of his teams than preseason expectations suggest. Wisconsin has consistently found ways to compete near the top of the Big Ten, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Badgers comfortably improve their tournament position as the season progresses.

The Big Ten's projected tournament field also includes USC as a No. 9 seed, along with Minnesota, Iowa, and Indiana as No. 11 seeds. Several of these teams enter the season near the tournament bubble, but the expanded 76-team field creates additional opportunities for the conference to earn bids. The challenge will be separating themselves in a league where quality wins should be available almost every night.

One of the more interesting storylines will be whether the Big Ten can translate its impressive regular-season depth into postseason success. With Illinois leading the way and several other programs capable of making deep runs, the conference should have plenty of opportunities to compete for a national championship.

OCMM Outlook: The Big Ten opens the season as the nation's third-ranked conference, with 12 teams projected into the NCAA Tournament. Illinois leads the way as a No. 1 seed, while Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, Ohio State, UCLA, and Michigan provide considerable depth. However, I'm skeptical that Michigan State will live up to its preseason expectations, and I believe Wisconsin will finish considerably stronger than its initial No. 11 seed suggests. The Big Ten should once again be one of the most competitive conferences in college basketball.

Conference Preview #4 - Big East Conference (Beast)

 

4. Big East Conference

2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview

The Big East enters the 2026–27 season ranked fourth nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +17.66, the conference remains one of college basketball's strongest leagues, featuring a combination of established national contenders and programs looking to return to prominence.

Connecticut leads the way in the initial OCMM bracket projection, earning a No. 3 seed. The Huskies have established themselves as one of the nation's premier programs under Dan Hurley and once again appear positioned to compete for a conference championship and make a deep NCAA Tournament run. St. John's follows as a No. 6 seed, while Creighton and Villanova both earn No. 8 seeds. The conference's depth should make for another competitive regular-season race.

Marquette and Providence round out the Big East's six projected NCAA Tournament teams. Marquette checks in as a No. 9 seed, while Providence earns a No. 11 seed. I have a feeling Marquette is going to be better than the preseason projections suggest. The Golden Eagles have established a strong identity under Shaka Smart, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them outperform their initial ranking and work their way into the upper tier of the conference. Marquette is one of the teams I'll be watching closely as the season develops.

The Big East also has opportunities to exceed its initial six-bid projection. DePaul opens the season among the OCMM First Four Out, while Xavier is listed in the Next Four Out. Both programs are close enough to the projected field to make the conference's NCAA Tournament picture even more interesting. With the tournament expanding to 76 teams, the Big East has a realistic opportunity to send seven or even eight teams to March Madness.

OCMM Outlook: The Big East opens the season as the nation's fourth-ranked conference, with six teams projected into the NCAA Tournament. Connecticut leads the way, followed by St. John's, Creighton, Villanova, Marquette, and Providence. DePaul and Xavier are positioned just outside the field, while Marquette is my pick to outperform preseason expectations. The Big East should once again be one of the most competitive conferences in the country.

Conference Preview #5 - Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

 

5. Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview

The Atlantic Coast Conference enters the 2026–27 season ranked fifth nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +15.46, the ACC has plenty of talent at the top, but its overall depth trails the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, and Big East.

I'll admit that seeing the ACC ranked fifth is disappointing. I've always viewed the ACC as one of college basketball's premier conferences, and while the league has certainly experienced some ups and downs in recent years, it's still frustrating to see it sitting behind four other conferences. The talent is there, particularly at the top, but the ACC needs more consistent performances from its middle and lower-tier programs to regain its place among the nation's elite.

Duke leads the way as the nation's No. 1 team in the preseason KenPom rankings and earns a No. 1 seed in the initial OCMM bracket projection. The Blue Devils are the clear conference favorite and enter the season with national championship expectations. Virginia and Louisville provide the strongest competition, earning No. 4 and No. 5 seeds, respectively, while Miami (FL) checks in as a No. 6 seed. All three programs have the talent to challenge Duke and potentially make deep NCAA Tournament runs.

I continue to believe Duke is the best team in the country, and I'm sticking with the Blue Devils as my pick to win the 2027 National Championship. It's a position I've held throughout the preseason, and nothing I've seen has changed my mind. Duke has the talent, coaching, and overall roster construction to make another serious run at a national title. While there will undoubtedly be challenges along the way, I expect the Blue Devils to be playing for a championship in April.

North Carolina and Clemson round out the ACC's projected tournament field, both earning No. 10 seeds. The Tar Heels enter the season looking to establish themselves under new head coach Michael Malone, while Clemson hopes to continue its recent run of NCAA Tournament appearances. Both teams have opportunities to improve their seeding, but neither enters the season with much room for error.

The conference's biggest opportunity may come from its bubble teams. NC State opens the season among the OCMM First Four Out, while SMU appears in the Next Four Out. Both programs are within striking distance of the tournament field and could help the ACC exceed its initial six-bid projection. With the NCAA Tournament expanding to 76 teams, the league should have additional opportunities to strengthen its representation in March.

OCMM Outlook: The ACC opens the season as the nation's fifth-ranked conference, with six teams projected into the NCAA Tournament. Duke leads the way as a No. 1 seed and remains my pick to win the national championship. Virginia, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, and Clemson round out the projected field, while NC State and SMU give the conference two additional teams capable of pushing the ACC toward eight bids. Despite my disappointment in the ACC's overall ranking, I still believe the conference has the nation's best team in Duke.

Conference Preview #6 - Pac-12 Conference (PAC12)

 

6. Pac-12 Conference

2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview

The Pac-12 returns to the college basketball landscape in 2026–27 with a dramatically different look, ranking sixth nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +10.92, the rebuilt conference immediately establishes itself as the strongest league outside the traditional power conferences.

The addition of Gonzaga gives the Pac-12 an established national powerhouse and a legitimate contender for a deep NCAA Tournament run. The Bulldogs enter the season ranked No. 14 nationally in KenPom and earn a No. 4 seed in the initial OCMM bracket projection. Gonzaga will be the clear favorite, but the conference should provide considerably more competition than the Bulldogs regularly faced in the West Coast Conference.

San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, and Colorado State bring recent NCAA Tournament experience to the conference, giving the Pac-12 a solid foundation of established programs. Oregon State and Washington State also provide continuity from the previous version of the league. The challenge will be determining which programs can separate themselves from the pack and build strong enough résumés to earn at-large consideration.

Perhaps the biggest surprise in the initial projection is that Gonzaga is the conference's only tournament team. Utah State is among the First Four Out, suggesting the Pac-12 is close to earning a second bid. With the expanded 76-team tournament, the conference has an opportunity to establish itself as a consistent multi-bid league, particularly if its top teams perform well during nonconference play.

OCMM Outlook: The Pac-12 enters its inaugural season in this new configuration ranked sixth nationally, with Gonzaga projected as a No. 4 seed and the conference's automatic qualifier. Utah State is the strongest early candidate for an additional bid, while San Diego State, Boise State, and Colorado State could also work their way into the NCAA Tournament conversation. The league has the potential to exceed its initial one-bid projection and become a significant factor in March.

Conference Preview #7 - Atlantic 10 Conference (A-10)

 

7. Atlantic 10 Conference (A-10)

2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview

The Atlantic 10 enters the 2026–27 season ranked seventh nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +5.45, the A-10 continues to establish itself as one of the strongest conferences outside the traditional power leagues and enters the season with legitimate hopes of earning multiple NCAA Tournament bids.

VCU and Saint Louis lead the way in the initial OCMM bracket projection, giving the conference two projected NCAA Tournament teams. VCU earns a No. 10 seed, while Saint Louis checks in as a No. 12 seed. Both programs have the opportunity to build strong postseason résumés, although the competition throughout the conference should make the regular-season race interesting.

Dayton is another team to keep a close eye on, as the Flyers enter the season just outside the initial OCMM tournament field. With a strong tradition of competing near the top of the Atlantic 10, Dayton could challenge VCU and Saint Louis for conference supremacy and emerge as another legitimate at-large contender.

The biggest question for the Atlantic 10 is whether it can consistently produce multiple at-large contenders. The expanded 76-team NCAA Tournament creates additional opportunities for leagues like the A-10, but nonconference success will be critical. With several competitive programs capable of challenging the favorites, the conference has an opportunity to improve its national standing and potentially exceed its initial two-bid projection.

OCMM Outlook: The Atlantic 10 opens the season as the nation's seventh-ranked conference, with VCU and Saint Louis projected into the NCAA Tournament. Dayton is not far behind and could push the conference's total to three bids if the Flyers build a strong enough résumé throughout the season.

Conference Preview #8 - Mountain West Conference (MWC)

 

8. Mountain West Conference (MWC)

2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview

The Mountain West enters the 2026–27 season ranked eighth nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +4.58, the conference remains one of the stronger leagues outside the traditional power conferences, despite significant changes to its membership.

The departures of Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and Utah State to the Pac-12 have reshaped the Mountain West. New Mexico now finds itself in a position to lead the conference, with the Lobos earning a No. 12 seed and the automatic bid in the initial OCMM bracket projection.

The biggest question for the Mountain West is whether it can maintain its recent reputation as a multi-bid conference. Grand Canyon and UNLV are among the programs looking to challenge New Mexico, while Nevada provides additional competition. With the NCAA Tournament expanding to 76 teams, the opportunity exists for a second Mountain West team to earn an at-large bid, but the conference will need strong nonconference performances to establish its postseason credentials.

OCMM Outlook: The Mountain West opens the season as the nation's eighth-ranked conference, with New Mexico projected to capture the automatic NCAA Tournament bid. Grand Canyon, UNLV, and Nevada will be worth watching as potential challengers, but the league currently projects as a one-bid conference until another team establishes a stronger at-large résumé.

Conference Preview #9 - American Athletic Conference (AAC)

 

9. American Athletic Conference (AAC)

2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview

The American Athletic Conference enters the 2026–27 season ranked ninth nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +2.75, the AAC remains one of the stronger leagues outside the traditional power conferences, although the conference faces questions about its ability to produce multiple NCAA Tournament bids.

Memphis has traditionally been one of the league's most recognizable programs, but the Tigers enter the season with something to prove. Wichita State leads the AAC in the initial OCMM bracket projection, earning a No. 13 seed and the conference's automatic bid. The Shockers will look to establish themselves at the top of a competitive conference race.

The biggest challenge for the American is developing a legitimate at-large contender. South Florida and Memphis appear to be the league's strongest candidates to challenge for an at-large bid, and both will need strong nonconference performances to build tournament-worthy résumés. With the NCAA Tournament expanding to 76 teams, the additional at-large opportunities could give the AAC a better chance of sending multiple teams to March Madness.

OCMM Outlook: The American opens the season as the nation's ninth-ranked conference, with Wichita State representing the league in the initial NCAA Tournament projection. While the AAC currently projects as a one-bid conference, South Florida and Memphis are the most likely candidates to push that total higher.