Villanova

The Big East isn’t very good this year. UConn and St. John’s sit atop the league. UConn is Final 4 good, St. John’s is rolling but has warts too ugly to overlook. Third in the league is a familiar face that has bounced back from the Kyle Neptune experience. The Villanova Wildcats and Kevin Willard are looking to get back to the tournament and are in good shape to do so.

The Wildcats are currently 26th in KenPom. 31st in offense and 32nd in defense, this team screams being somewhere in the 7-10 area of seeding. Their best win is a “neutral court” win in Milwaukee over UW-Madison. After that, sweeping the season series against Seton Hall are their next two best wins. A home date this weekend with UConn awaits and a trip to MSG against the Johnnies next weekend gives them two more chances at good wins.

The roster is a nice blend of transfers and freshmen. Redshirt frosh Matthew Hodge and silky smooth PG frosh Acaden Lewis look like classic Nova players. Big man Duke Brennan from Grand Canyon provides the muscle and Devin Askew from Long Beach State has added a threat from 3.

In the Four Factors, Nova doesn’t do anything exceptionally. They’re a weak defensive rebounding team and do not get to the foul line. This isn’t a sleeper to make a deep run. What it is, is a building block. Assuming they keep Lewis and Hodge along with junior guard, Tyler Perkins, they’ll have pieces to build around.

I wouldn’t expect them to make the second weekend. I do expect them to be much better in 2027 and a threat in the league. Whether Willard has Jay Wright’s ceiling as a coach, I doubt, but he is at a place that can and wants to compete for national titles. He no longer has any excuses. It will be fascinating to watch play out.

One Month to Go!

 We are one month to Selection Sunday so now is a good time to predict the Final Four again.  Going back my preseason Final Four were Michigan, Houston, Duke, and Texas Tech.  That’s not bad and I would have stuck with the first three for sure but after Texas Tech knocked off Arizona last night it might make sense to keep them in as well.  However, I’m not going to let one game sway me back to my original Four yet. 

Thinking through the season so far, I think there is a large range of teams that can make the Final Four and after last season, where all #1’s made it, I think there will be a surprise or two.  As I mentioned I have Duke, Michigan, and Houston as 3 of my 4 and those are 2 1seeds and 1 2 seed.  I currently have Texas Tech as a 4 seed, but I can see them replacing Michigan State at the 3 line in the next bracket.  That would be a minor upset as a 3 seed but, I’m not going there now.  St. John’s has been hot lately and Florida is everybody’s darling at the moment.  I can make a case for the Gators but once again that’s an easy way out.  Instead, I’m going to go out on a limb and lean on my ACC bias and select Virginia as my 4^th Final Four team.  I like what I see out of them and it’s great to see actual basketball being played at Virigina instead of the garbage that the previous coach tried to shove down our throats.  This might be a reach, but I don’t want to be like everybody else and take the same 4 out of 5 teams as my prediction (most people sprinkle in Florida or Connecticut.

Final Four 1 Month Out:

Duke
Michigan
Houston
Virginia

Sparty

Izzo is March is one of our favorite phrases, isn’t it? Brian pointed out Matt Norlander called Michigan State the 2nd most likely team to win a national title out of the Big 18. They proceeded to blown off the court by UW-Madison. Are they the 2nd most likely team to win a national title do the Big 18? No, no they’re not.

They’ve now lost 3 of 4, which includes a double digit loss at home to Michigan and a loss at Minnesota to go with the blowout loss in Madison. Izzo better be March because he isn’t February at the moment.

They got as high as number 4 in KenPom following a blowout win over a terrible Maryland team on January 24th. They also briefly had the best defense in the land. Since then, they’ve given up 79 to Rutgers in a 73-possession game, 76 to the Gophers in 53-possession game, 83 to Michigan in a 73-possession game, 82 to Illinois in a 71 possession game and them 92 in a 68 possession game. The defense has flatlined since that blowout win over Maryland.

The offense has never been good enough to win a title, hovering in the 40’s most of Big 18 play. The offense isn’t terrible other than turning it over way too much. A great rebounding team, the offense thrives off 2nd chance possessions.

Jeremy Fears is this year’s dirtbag Big 18 player. Fears is a good PG, they type of a player the media likes because of gaudy assist stats. A terrible shooter who hunts fouls which works for him because he 90% from the line but only 25% from 3. Expect to hear a lot of announcers to push the redemption narrative like Jason Benetti did last Saturday night.

The schedule includes road trips to Indiana, Michigan and Purdue. A 3-3 finish is possible which would mean a 4-6 finish in regular season play. Don’t know that’ll happen but this isn’t a team that is the second most likely to end the Big 18 title drought.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Morgan St./Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Merrimack
1. Duke  vs  16. LIU
1. Houston  vs  16. Navy
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Kansas  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Nebraska  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Florida  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Purdue  vs  13. Hawaii
4. St. John's  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. BYU  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. South Florida
6. Arkansas  vs  11. Missouri
6. Tennessee  vs  11. San Diego St./Saint Mary's
6. Alabama  vs  11. USC/Miami Fl
6. Saint Louis  vs  11. Santa Clara
7. Villanova  vs  10. Texas
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Clemson  vs  10. Georgia
7. N.C. State  vs  10. Texas A&M
8. Utah St.  vs  9. UCLA
8. Iowa  vs  9. UCF
8. Wisconsin  vs  9. SMU
8. Auburn  vs  9. Indiana

First Four Out - Ohio St.

First Four Out - New Mexico

First Four Out - TCU

First Four Out - California

Next Four Out - Boise St.

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Nevada

Also Considered - Tulsa

Utah State

It’s Aggie time. Utah State currently has a 1/2 game lead in the last year of the Mountain West as we know it. They’re up to 25th in KenPom, 27th on offense and 39th on defense. Jerrod Calhoun is the coach and given his background, a guy who Cincinnati and Ohio State might give a looksy should they make a move this off-season.

With 57.8% real shooting, 13th in the nation, the offense is quite good. They’re 8th in 2-pt shooting % and 80th in 3-pt shooting. The highest volume 3-point shooters are all 37% or better, so while 80th overall isn’t great, the core shooters are good. You’d like to see better turnover numbers but they do assist on 59% of makes. Their big folly on offense is weak FT shooting. They get to the line at an ok number but they’re 239th in FT % shooting.

Defensively, they’re 18th in turnover % and 59th in real shooting % defense. That mix is pretty good. Their weakness is they foul too much. They’re 269th in FTA/FGA. They’re also mediocre on the glass. Would be nice to see those 2 areas cleaned up.

MJ Collins paces them with 18ppg. Mason Falslev averages 16ppg and 5.7 boards per game while shooting 39.5% from 3 and getting 2.2 steals per game. Drake Allen and Elijah Perryman run the point and are quite adept at it. Allen averages 5 assists per game along with 2 steals per game. If you like guard play, this team has it.

The non-con wasn’t great with their best win over VCU and a loss to USF. It’s not a bad non-con schedule, they’re just not going to get anyone from the Big 5 to play them, so they scheduled a good amount of solid mid-majors. They play Memphis this Saturday. That’s a good scheduled game you’d think but the Tigers aren’t holding up their end of the donkey.

Brian has them on the 8-9 line and it doesn’t seem likely they get much higher without running the table. There’s enough parity in the league that’s unlikely but they’re worth monitoring should they get up to the 6 or 7 line.

Final Four Contender OR Pretender Part 3

 

Connecticut – Uconn just took a loss to St. John’s last Friday night so now seems like a good time to talk about them.  Their offense efficiency according to KenPom is below what you would like from a title contender, sitting at 27 but overall they are 8^th.  Torvik and the NET also have them slotted at 8 and both losses are against Quad 1 opponents.  The early season loss to Arizona was without 2 starters and again, it was against Arizona.  I’m still high on the Huskies even in a barren Big East.

Verdict: Contender...for now

Kansas – How can you actually make a prediction about Kansas with Darryn Peterson in and out of the lineup?  Hard to make a guess when you don’t know who is going to be on the court and who’s not.  What I do know is Peterson, while the best player in college, is 100% managing his playing time in an effort to get to the NBA healthy and get that rookie contract.  Do you know what players who do that in college do when they get a rookie contract?  They manage their playing time until they get an extension.  And when they get an extension it’s the same behavior until they get a max-contract.  And by then they have a label of a player not interested in winning.  I also question whether he loves the game.  Super talent and the NBA will love him but he will frustrate every franchise he plays for.

Verdict: They should allow players to go directly to the NBA.  And Kansas is a pretender but I’m impressed with how they’ve played with this circus.

Michigan State – Tom Izzo this, Tom Izzo that.  I keep hearing the podcasts talk about how he does so much with less talent than every other team year in and year out.  If he’s so good how come he constantly has “less talent” than other blue bloods?  He’s got 1 Final Four in 10 years and Jeremy Fears is AS dirty as Grayson Allen

Verdict:  Pretender and not making the 2^nd weekend

Tuesday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Morgan St./Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Merrimack
1. Duke  vs  16. LIU
1. Houston  vs  16. Navy
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
3. Florida  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hawaii
4. Purdue  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. North Carolina  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. High Point
5. St. John's  vs  12. Belmont
5. BYU  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. Tulsa
6. Arkansas  vs  11. Missouri
6. Tennessee  vs  11. California/Saint Mary's
6. Alabama  vs  11. USC/Miami Fl
6. Clemson  vs  11. Santa Clara
7. Villanova  vs  10. Texas
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Wisconsin
7. Iowa  vs  10. Indiana
8. N.C. State  vs  9. UCLA
8. Utah St.  vs  9. Georgia
8. Texas A&M  vs  9. UCF
8. SMU  vs  9. Auburn

First Four Out - Ohio St.

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Oklahoma St.

First Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Boise St.

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Nevada

Also Considered - George Mason

The Contenders

Asked last night who my Final 4 was and I was slow to respond. Probably because I always want to think of some unlikely Final 4 team. Yes, that could happen but let’s take a look at the real title contenders. One of these teams is likely to win it all. All are Top-20 offense and defenses.

Arizona - At a loss of superlatives at the moment. Largely steamrolling opponents. Just don’t do anything poorly. Barring injury, anything short of a regional final will be a massive disappointment.

Michigan - Currently up double-digits with 7 minutes left in Columbus. Well-balanced team that has responded to its hiccups after the calendar turned to 2026. Will be battle tested.

Duke - Heartbreaker last night. Lack of another offensive option was exposed last night late. Bit discouraging to see that UNC defense do that to them. Final 4 good but don’t see a title.

Houston - Offense, shooting in particular worries me but it has been gradually improving through Big XIIIII play. Still plays good defense. If the shooting continues to improve, they’ll be a legit title threat. If it stalls or regresses, that’ll be their doom.

Iowa State - Great response after some rough play. They can win it all. FT shooting is bad. Don’t get to the line and when they do, they’re not good but with the 7th best real shooting %, will it matter?

Florida - Don’t look now, but the defending champs are squarely in the mix. Can’t shoot the 3, though. Probably limits them from defending. Let’s see how that looks as we get into March.

Vandy - Fading? The defense is up and down. Not a threat but like I said a few weeks back, they’re building something in Nashville.

Iowa - Huh. Top 20 d and o. The defense is built upon turning teams over. 116th real shooting % defense isn’t good enough. It’s built upon teams missing 3’s, so not probably even that good. Still, seeing them here is something. Sweet 16 feels like the ceiling but given the Fran years, what an accomplishment that would be.

Others: 

Illinois - Last night’s loss exposed the question about them, the defense. It’s 22nd in KenPom, so that’s good but given up 85 points, even in overtime, to Michigan State isn’t a good look. A Final 4 run won’t surprise me but someone will out score them.

UConn - 306th in tempo, 27th in offense. Great defense can carry them. Problem on offense is free throw numbers across the board. Bit sloppy with the ball, too. Fascinating team to watch in March. Could do just about anything. Get upset early, make a run to the Final 4.

Purdue - Elite offense, good defense. Not a title contender but a Final 4 is doable. Head to Nebraska and Iowa and host Michigan in the next 3 games. Let’s see how the defense performs in those games

St. John’s - On a 9-game winning streak. Hovering around the top-20 in both offense and defense. So-so shooting team. Get a lot of second chance opportunities and to the line. Bullies on the offensive glass, terrible on the defensive glass. Sweet 16 ceiling, imo.

Virginia - Probably not. Sweet 16 is the ceiling. Again, that would be a great season given expectations.

Monitoring: Kentucky and UNC

College Basketball Rivalries

Thinking about the Carolina-Duke game today, it dawned on me, the college basketball rivalries feel dead to me outside this game. Am I right? I’m not sure but I’ll write my way through my thinking.

I think Duke and UNC are the starting point. For 30+ years, this has been the ultimate rivalry. Great teams, big games, true hate. Duke and UNC also engendered in ACC opponents a sense of rivalry, even if it was one-sided in nature. As the goliaths of the ACC, beating either was a big deal. Maryland games against these teams was must-see-TV. 

Mentioning Maryland brings me to what has probably caused the biggest decline in the rivalry games, conference realignment. Maryland’s hatred of Tobacco Road can’t be recaptured in the Big 18. Think UCLA-Arizona. Maybe not the most notorious rivalry, those were still big games out west.

The Big East has this problem as well. The entirety of the league had a common enemy in Syracuse. As the league broke up, one common theme emerged, everyone was sad to see the Orange leave because the members all liked beating them. Georgetown’s trip to the abyss hasn’t helped but a decade into the new league, it lacks the juice of the Orange.

That’s the ACC’s issue, too. As a smaller league, Tobacco Road was the enemy. Now? It’s a mishmash of schools dotted across the landscape. Beating Duke and UNC still means something but what about the other dozen + teams extending from the Bay Area to Dallas to Miami to Upper NY? 

The Big XIIIII still has Kansas. Beating the Jayhawks is still a badge of honor in the league but they don’t have a Missouri to get their blood boiling. Maybe Arizona-Kansas can become a thing but I doubt it. 

I thing the Big 18 might still have some bad blood rivalries. Michigan-Michigan State hate each other. Indiana-Purdue-Illinois show signs of redeveloping a true hatred of each other. Unfortunately, the league is so bloated, there is way too many “shoulder shrug” matchups. 

I have a lot of old man complaints about college sports and understand the leagues do not care about the fans. This is the one that bugs me the most. Maybe after decades of matchups, things can develop but I doubt the radical reconstruction of college sports allow it to naturally happen. That’s too bad. Good sports hate make it better for the fans, respectfully, of course. While alive in football, it feels much different in college hoops.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. North Carolina Central/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Illinois  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Houston  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Kansas  vs  14. Austin Peay
3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Florida  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Purdue  vs  13. Liberty
4. Purdue  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Virginia  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. St. John's  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. Tulsa
6. Arkansas  vs  11. Santa Clara
6. Clemson  vs  11. New Mexico/Miami Fl
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Indiana/Ohio St.
6. Alabama  vs  11. Saint Mary's
7. Villanova  vs  10. Texas
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Kentucky  vs  10. USC
7. N.C. State  vs  10. UCLA
8. UCF  vs  9. Georgia
8. Iowa  vs  9. Wisconsin
8. Texas A&M  vs  9. Utah St.
8. SMU  vs  9. Auburn

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - Oklahoma St.

First Four Out - Missouri

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - California

Next Four Out - TCU

Next Four Out - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Baylor

Also Considered - Akron

Also Considered - George Mason

Final Four Contender OR Pretender Part 2

 

Iowa State – Outside of a two-game slide where the Cyclones lost at Kansas and at Cincinnati Iowa State has been riding high.  Major metrics say this team is a threat to win the title and I agree.  Top 5 in the NET, Torvik, and KenPom say all that needs to be said from the computers.  As for the eye test; they pass that too.

Verdict: Contender

Houston – Year after year Houston remains in the title contender conversation.  Last year they made it to the championship game, perhaps this year is the year they win it all.  The Cougars only have 2 loses, at Texas Tech and on a neutral court versus Tennessee.  They are top 10 in all performance metrics although KenPom has them predicted to take 4 more losses this season.  I don’t see that happening and with their schedule, going 2-2 in that time frame is a win.  Kingston Fleming is the real deal.

Verdict:  Contender

BYU – BYU has lost 3 of their last 4 but still remain 15^th at KenPom and the NET.  Torvik has them at 27 and I have to lean with Torvik on this one.  Their defense doesn’t seem to track high enough to make a Final Four run and I actually don’t see them making the second weekend.  AJ Dybansta is going to be a stud in the NBA but a good 13 seed or 5 seed in the second round is going to drive them into fast stupid shots and the upset will hit.

Verdict:  Pretender

Tuesday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Maryland Eastern Shore/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. Vermont/Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Navy
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Austin Peay
2. Illinois  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Houston  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Kansas  vs  14. Troy
3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Florida  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Purdue  vs  13. Liberty
4. Purdue  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. BYU  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. St. John's  vs  12. Tulsa
5. Louisville  vs  12. Yale
6. Arkansas  vs  11. San Diego St.
6. Clemson  vs  11. Seton Hall/UCLA
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Indiana/Texas
6. Alabama  vs  11. Miami Fl
7. SMU  vs  10. Georgia
7. Villanova  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. USC
7. UCF  vs  10. New Mexico
8. Kentucky  vs  9. Wisconsin
8. Iowa  vs  9. Saint Mary's
8. Texas A&M  vs  9. Utah St.
8. N.C. State  vs  9. Auburn

First Four Out - Santa Clara

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - Ohio St.

First Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - Missouri

Next Four Out - George Mason

Next Four Out - California

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Butler

Final Four Contender or Pretender Part 1

 

Arizona – Being the number one seed without question at this point in the season is dead give away that Arizona is going to be a Contender but let’s look at the numbers and be quick about this team.  Number 2 at KenPom with top 5 offense and defense is a great start.  Bart Torvik has them 2 as well.  They are undefeated with a NCAA leading 9 Quad 1 wins.

Verdict: Contender

Michigan – Two easy ones to start.  Arizona sits #2 at KenPom and Torvik while Michigan sits at #1.  They do have a loss to Wisconsin which counts as a Quad 2 at the moment but that’s the only blemish.  And, let’s be honest here, Wisconsin shot the lights out and probably Michigan probably wins that game 9 out of 10 times.  I still don’t trust Elliot Cadeau but that could be my Carolina bias shining through.  I had them in the Final with my pre-season picks and I see no reason to change that.

Verdict: Contender

Nebraska – Two losses in a row never looks good but they did play 2 top 10 teams in Michigan and Illinois.  The metrics for the Cornhuskers are solid with most numbers falling in the top 20.  The lone exception is KP Offense which ranks 26^th.  On top of that they don’t get to the free throw line very often, which was evident in the last two losses where they shot a total of 9 free throws.  This is a good story for the mayor but a Final Four run may be asking a bit too much.

Verdict: Pretender

UCF

Earlier today, UCF hosted and beat Texas Tech, 88-82 to move to 17-4 overall, and 6-3 in the Big XIIIIII. Let’s learn about Johnny Dawkins hoopers.

Only 45 in KenPom, UCF is probably not a threat to make much noise in March but given Dawkins was on the hot seat entering the year, a tourney bid would be a great result. They’re 31st in AdjustedO but 79th in AdjustedD. The D is 228th in effective fg%. Woof. Other than defensive rebounding, this is a mediocre defense.

Offensively, they’re 20th in the nation shooting from 3 and a very good offensive rebounding team. Jordan Burks shoots 39% from 3 and Riley Kugel shoots 40% from 3. Carmelo Pachero is a low usage player who shoots 40% from 3. Winning more will revolve around them making 3’s. Bad shooting nights will doom them but they haven’t had many yet.

The schedule is manageable the remainder of the year. Trips to Houston and BYU remain. A win in one of these would go a long way to shoring up a bid. They do have games across the board against some bubbly teams, so a bid isn’t locked in.

Looking at their wins out of league, a win over Texas A&M is their best win. The schedule wasn’t daunting but the wins they have were against better than average mid-majors. Only 2-wins out of league were against sub-200 KenPom teams. It shouldn’t wow you but these were games you might have seen UCF lose in other seasons.

Brian has them as a 7-seed and that’s about right. They can get into that 4-6 range with a strong finish but feels more likely they stay in the 7-10 range.  I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if they end up on the bubble either but that doesn’t feel likely as the moment.  They’d prefer a 7 or 10 and I could see them shooting a 2-seed out of the gym in an upset. That’s the best case scenario but a scenario they’d have taken as the season begun.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Maryland Eastern Shore/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. Vermont/Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Tennessee Martin
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Austin Peay
2. Illinois  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Houston  vs  14. UT Arlington
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. BYU  vs  13. Troy
4. Purdue  vs  13. Liberty
4. Purdue  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Arkansas  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. St. John's  vs  12. Tulsa
5. Louisville  vs  12. Yale
6. Virginia  vs  11. San Diego St.
6. Clemson  vs  11. Seton Hall/New Mexico
6. Alabama  vs  11. Virginia Tech/Ohio St.
6. Tennessee  vs  11. UCLA
7. SMU  vs  10. Georgia
7. Villanova  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. USC
7. UCF  vs  10. Miami Fl
8. Kentucky  vs  9. Wisconsin
8. Iowa  vs  9. N.C. State
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Auburn  vs  9. Utah St.

First Four Out - Indiana

First Four Out - Santa Clara

First Four Out - Texas

First Four Out - Creighton

Next Four Out - TCU

Next Four Out - Missouri

Next Four Out - George Mason

Next Four Out - California

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Butler

Bubble Out = Continue to be Bubble Out

 

It wasn’t the best week for bubble teams outside the bracket.  In fact, I didn’t move one team in that was out from Tuesday’s bracket due to the carnage.  Let’s take a look at the 12 teams that are out and being tracked:

First Four Out:

Texas – lost

Indiana – Big win vs Purdue; the only team with a resume building win out here

Santa Clara – Won

TCU – loss

Creighton – destroyed at Marquette

Next Four Out

Missouri – Bad loss

George Mason – won, but they really aren’t close to getting in

California – loss

Also Considered

LSU – loss

Baylor – loss and replaced by VCU

Stanford – loss

Butler – loss

In summary, that’s 3-9 with only 1 good win across the past 3 days.  New Bracket will be out soon

Miami, NTM

Did you know Miami (not that Miami) is 24 in the AP. Wild. The undefeated RedHawks are off to the best start in school history and MAC history. How good are they?

Well, probably not that good. They’re 90th in KenPom which isn’t the best in their league. That belongs to Akron who is 53. But Miami owns a win over them, the RedHawks only win over a top-100 KenPom team. While think Akron is better, Miami is still a fun story.

They’re 63rd in adjustedO and 169th in adjustedD. What they excel at is shooting. They just passed St. Louis to take the top spot in real shooting. They’re 18th in 3-point shooting % and 4th in 2-point shooting %. They’re also 23rd in FT shooting and 64th in FTA/FGA.  They’ll go as far as their shooting takes them.

The results are padded by a bit of luck. They have 3 overtime wins and 4 single possession game wins. Still, Travis Steele’s team shouldn’t apologize for winning. They’ve been building to this since he got to Oxford at the start of the ‘23 season. With 4 players shooting 40% from 3, if they do make the dance, they can outshoot someone(s) and get their first tourney win since Wally Szczerbiak took them to the Sweet 16 in 1999.

Wednesday Thoughts on our Top Seed Lines

 

1 Seeds

Arizona – took care of business against BYU, top 4 in both Offense and Defense efficiency

Michigan – Also top ten in both Offense and Defense efficiency.  Only blemish is a loss to Wisconsin who shot the light out.  Teamed up with 3 referees to beat Nebraska last night in a game where they committed 8 fouls in the first 39 minutes and shot 20 more free throws.

Connecticut – Offense isn’t as good as other top tier teams but they played a third of the season below full strength

Duke – continues to cruise with top 5 numbers.  Scheyer is mixing and matching each game differently to win. Is that sustainable?

2 Seeds

Nebraska – Without two of their top four players they out played Michigan, causing 19 turnovers to 11 but somehow shot 20 less free throws and committed more than twice as many fouls as the Wolverines.

Gonzaga – Same story every year; how battle tested are they?  Playing without 2 starters at the moment

Iowa State – The two losses are a nothing burger, Efficiency is top 20 in both which is a requirement for title contenders

Illinois – beat Purdue behind 46 from Keaton Wagler.  He won’t replicate that and the Defense might not be good enough for March.

3 Seeds

Purdue – Three losses in a row including at UCLA and Indiana doesn’t look great in the resume.

Michigan State – Barely in the top 50 in offensive efficiency, however they are #1 since January 1 at BartTorvik.com.  Looked terrible at Rutgers last night and needed overtime to get the W.

Houston – No shame in losing at Texas Tech.  Losses are both Quad 1.  Great resume as a 3 seed

Kansas – better than last year’s version of Kansas but not a Final Four team; even with Peterson.

Bonus Team Number 10

Vanderbilt – hanging in there in both Torvik and KenPom.  After a 3 game losing streak they’ve now won 2 in a row including a drubbing of Kentucky last night.

Tuesday Bracketology

1. Arizona  vs  16. Maryland Eastern Shore/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. Vermont/Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Tennessee Martin
2. Nebraska  vs  15. Navy
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Lipscomb
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. UT Arlington
3. Houston  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Troy
4. BYU  vs  13. Hawaii
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. Liberty
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Arkansas  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. St. John's  vs  12. Tulsa
5. Louisville  vs  12. Yale
6. Virginia  vs  11. San Diego St.
6. Clemson  vs  11. Seton Hall/New Mexico
6. Alabama  vs  11. Virginia Tech/Ohio St.
6. Kentucky  vs  11. UCLA
7. SMU  vs  10. Miami Fl
7. Tennessee  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. USC
7. Villanova  vs  10. Wisconsin
8. UCF  vs  9. N.C. State
8. Iowa  vs  9. Georgia
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Auburn  vs  9. Utah St.

First Four Out - Texas

First Four Out - Indiana

First Four Out - Santa Clara

First Four Out - Creighton

Next Four Out - TCU

Next Four Out - Missouri

Next Four Out - George Mason

Next Four Out - California

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - Baylor

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Butler

Sunday Morning Winners and Losers

Winners:

TCU over Baylor — In a true bubble clash, TCU grabbed a crucial résumé win that nudges the Horned Frogs toward the right side of the cut line while Baylor slips further into “must-win” territory.

Auburn over Florida — Auburn’s win adds another quality result that steadies its tournament position, while Florida takes a hit that tightens its margin for staying in the protected-seed range.

North Carolina over Virginia — North Carolina’s comeback strengthens its seed-line case and keeps upward pressure on the top half of the bracket, as Virginia absorbs a damaging loss in the crowded middle of the field.

Losers:

George Mason at Rhode Island — As the last team in the field, George Mason’s road loss is a résumé killer that likely drops the Patriots out of the bracket and onto the wrong side of the bubble.

Virginia Tech vs Louisville — Virginia Tech’s loss further thins an already-fragile résumé, cementing the Hokies’ position in the First Four Out range with dwindling chances to recover.

Georgia at Texas — With a non-conference strength of schedule north of 250, Georgia couldn’t afford this loss, which sharply damages its at-large profile and pushes the Bulldogs toward the edge of the bubble.

Billikens

Brian’s latest mock has the 19-1 St. Louis Billikens as a 7-seed. The presumptive A-10 champ has a 13-game winning streak and look to end a tourney drought that dates back to 2019. Legit mid-major monster or a likely opening weekend loser?

The Billikens have the nations best effective fg% on both defense and offense. That’s remarkable. They’re 4th in 2-point shooting and 6th in 3-point shooting on offense and 3rd in both on the defensive side. Overall, they’re 39th and 25th in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency because that’s all they do well in the four factors except defensive rebounding.

What does it mean? If you’re going to lead in something in the Four Factors, it’s the two they lead in. It’s easily the most important but it does mean there are concerns. They don’t turn teams over and they foul a lot. They’re a bit loose with the ball and don’t get to the line. However, given what they do well, as a potential 7-seed, I wouldn’t want to see them on opening weekend.

The schedule hasn’t been very tough. Their best non-con wins are Santa Clara and Grand Canyon. The lone loss was to Stanford. They won’t get a marquee matchup in the league as VCU is the only top-50 KenPom team in the A-10 (they did win at VCU). Hard to see them earning anything higher than a 5-seed or so.

Robbie Avila followed Josh Schertz to St. Louis and continues to be a productive player. Trey Green is shooting 48% from 3. They have a lot of good college basketball players that each do something well. Love the mix on this team.

Hard to gauge just how good they are but are certainly capable of a Sweet 16. Josh Schertz will be a popular name in the next coaching carousel. 

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/Maryland Eastern Shore

1. Michigan  vs  16. Vermont/Saint Peter's

1. Connecticut  vs  16. Queens

1. Duke  vs  16. Navy

2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Tennessee Martin

2. Nebraska  vs  15. LIU

2. Iowa St.  vs  15. North Dakota St.

2. Houston  vs  15. Portland St.

3. Purdue  vs  14. East Tennessee St.

3. Michigan St.  vs  14. UNC Wilmington

3. Illinois  vs  14. Hawaii

3. BYU  vs  14. Wright St.

4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Troy

4. Florida  vs  13. Liberty

4. BYU  vs  13. Utah Valley

4. BYU  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin

5. Virginia  vs  12. Florida Atlantic

5. Alabama  vs  12. High Point

5. St. John's  vs  12. Yale

5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. Murray St.

6. North Carolina  vs  11. George Mason

6. Louisville  vs  11. New Mexico/Virginia Tech

6. Clemson  vs  11. Ohio St./San Diego St.

6. Villanova  vs  11. Seton Hall

7. SMU  vs  10. Auburn

7. Kentucky  vs  10. Miami Fl

7. Saint Louis  vs  10. Miami OH

7. Wisconsin  vs  10. N.C. State

8. Tennessee  vs  9. Texas A&M

8. Iowa  vs  9. USC

8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. UCF

8. Georgia  vs  9. Utah St.

First Four Out - UCLA

First Four Out - Baylor

First Four Out - LSU

First Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Tulsa

Next Four Out - Santa Clara

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - Creighton

Also Considered - Texas

Also Considered - Missouri

Also Considered - Butler

Virginia but Fun

Would you look at that? After Tony Bennett tried picking his successor and him failing miserably, Virginia went out and hired someone who likes basketball in Ryan Odom. The Cavs are 16-2, 14th in KenPom with a top 20 offense and defense. They project as a Final 4 team in Odom’s first year.

While not as slow as Bennett’s teams, Odom’s team is still 287th in tempo. But it isn’t a methodical offense. The offense is 142nd in possession length. The defense just makes you work on your possessions. They have the 3rd best effective fg% defensively. They have 2 7-footers who are amongst the best shot blockers in the nation. Frosh Johann Grunloh and Senior Ugonna Onyenso, late of K-State and Kentucky.

Offensively, they’re 35th in effective fg% and 3rd in offensive rebounding %. That helps explain the longer offensive possessions. Only being a bad FT shooting team hampers this offense.

The non-con schedule was pretty bad. The best win is at Texas and they have a neutral court loss to Butler. However, they have won at Louisville, NC State and SMU, all top-35 KenPom wins. KenPom projects them to go 15-3 in league and 26-5 overall. They get UNC at home this Saturday and only play Duke once, later in the year in Durham. Yeah, they can win the league.

This is a balanced roster and solid club. I doubt it’s a Final 4 team, despite the current numbers but a Sweet 16 run in Odom’s first season won’t be a surprise. 

Tonight's Games of Note

 Indiana at Michigan — Indiana looks to move onto the right side of the bubble after uneven recent results, while Michigan, coming off a strong stretch of wins, aims to solidify its hold on a No. 1 seed.

Seton Hall at St. John’s — Seton Hall looks to strengthen its at-large position as St. John’s, heating up lately, tries to turn momentum into a move up the seed line.

UCF at Iowa State — UCF tries to climb off the 8/9 line while Iowa State looks to stop a two-game skid and protect its spot on the top-two seed line.

Texas Tech at Baylor — Texas Tech looks to solidify a protected seed, while Baylor, desperate for a résumé boost after uneven results, fights to re-enter the at-large picture.

Vanderbilt at Arkansas — Vanderbilt aims to halt a two-game slide and stay in the 4–5 range as Arkansas looks to steady its footing in the middle of the bracket.

Tuesday Bracketology

1. Arizona  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/Maryland Eastern Shore
1. Michigan  vs  16. Vermont/Queens
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Saint Peter's
1. Duke  vs  16. Colgate
2. Purdue  vs  15. LIU
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Nebraska  vs  15. North Dakota St.
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Portland St.
3. Houston  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Illinois  vs  14. Wright St.
3. BYU  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hawaii
4. Florida  vs  13. Liberty
4. BYU  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. BYU  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. Florida Atlantic
5. Virginia  vs  12. High Point
5. Alabama  vs  12. Yale
5. St. John's  vs  12. Murray St.
6. Arkansas  vs  11. George Mason
6. North Carolina  vs  11. New Mexico/Texas
6. Louisville  vs  11. Ohio St./San Diego St.
6. Saint Louis  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. SMU  vs  10. Auburn
7. Kentucky  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Iowa  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Wisconsin  vs  10. Georgia
8. Tennessee  vs  9. Seton Hall
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. USC
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. Villanova
8. Utah St.  vs  9. UCF

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - Baylor

First Four Out - LSU

First Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - Santa Clara

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - UCLA

Also Considered - Missouri

Also Considered - Butler

January Contenders

I’ll cheat and copy Brian’s tiers.

Tier 1 - Definitely Can Win It All

Arizona - Yes. Wildly good. 4th best offense, 6th best defense. Will get tested weekly in the Big XIIIIII. Would be my pick today.

Iowa State - I was wrong about the offense. 4th best 3-point shooting team in the nation lead by Milan Momcilovic. 71.6 effective fg%, 54% from 3. Bad FT shooting team but the rest of the offense is best it’s been in TJO era. Not good today, though.  Sloppy game at Cincinnati.

Michigan - Defense has come back to earth last two weeks. UW-Madison dragged the bigs out and outshot them. We’ll see how they adjust as I’m sure others will copy that game plan. Not sure this is the best team in the Big 18. Still very good.

Houston - Don’t trust the offense. Mediocre shooting team. Final 4 good, don’t believe they can win it all.

UConn - Offense isn’t good enough and the league won’t test them enough.

Tier 2 - Need to see more, flawed

Duke - Final 4 good. Probably doesn’t shoot the 3 well enough.

Gonzaga - Solid in all phases except FT shooting. Will go through the motions until the tourney. I know FT shooting in the advanced stat era is a shoulder shrug of concerns but they’ll play in a lot of blowouts until the tourney. That FT concern will be an issue in a close tourney game.

Tier 3 - Underrated?  Maybe?

Purdue - Absolutely good enough offensively, defense is good but not great. Can Daniel Jacobsen stay on the court and be a menace inside? Still developing. If he takes a step, could help make defense better.

Illinois - See Purdue. Great offense. Good but not great defense. Game at Purdue next week should be fun.

Vanderbilt - Top 15 efficient offense and defense. 15th and 21st entering at effective fg% on offense and defense. Is it sustainable? Texas beat them 80-64 and Florida has 86 through 35 minutes. Whatever the case, Mark Byington is establishing himself as hot commodity.

Tier 4 - Confused

Nebraska - 15th in KenPom and undefeated on 1-17 from a major conference should confuse you. 3 one possession wins in league play. Some luck. League schedule is pretty manageable.

BYU - Final 4 good, not good enough as of today to win it all.

Florida - Look good at Vandy. Not good enough shooting team. 152nd offensive effective fg%, 353rd in 3-point shooting. 37.5% from 3 today is 10% higher than year average.

Texas Tech - Not good enough defensively. 

Tier 5 - Frauds

Michigan State - 58th offensively in KenPom. Not good enough at all. Best rebounding team in America, though. 

North Carolina - Projected to go 10-8 in league play. Not a chance they’re a contender for anything other than a bid.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/North Carolina Central

1. Iowa St.  vs  16. Vermont/Dartmouth

1. Connecticut  vs  16. Saint Peter's

1. Michigan  vs  16. Colgate

2. Duke  vs  15. LIU

2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Tennessee Martin

2. Purdue  vs  15. Austin Peay

2. Nebraska  vs  15. Wright St.

3. BYU  vs  14. Portland St.

3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy

3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. St. Thomas

3. Florida  vs  14. East Tennessee St.

4. Illinois  vs  13. Hawaii

4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Liberty

4. Florida  vs  13. Utah Valley

4. Florida  vs  13. UNC Wilmington

5. Kansas  vs  12. McNeese St.

5. Virginia  vs  12. High Point

5. Arkansas  vs  12. Tulsa

5. North Carolina  vs  12. Murray St.

6. Utah St.  vs  11. Texas

6. Louisville  vs  11. Texas A&M/Indiana

6. Clemson  vs  11. Auburn/Ohio St.

6. SMU  vs  11. Miami OH

7. St. John's  vs  10. Georgia

7. Tennessee  vs  10. N.C. State

7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCLA

7. USC  vs  10. New Mexico

8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Kentucky

8. Saint Louis  vs  9. Seton Hall

8. Iowa  vs  9. Wisconsin

8. UCF  vs  9. Villanova

First Four Out - George Mason

First Four Out - Baylor

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - LSU

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Missouri

Also Considered - Dayton

Also Considered - Creighton

January Contenders

 

With about 2 months left before Selection Sunday now is a good time to Tier out the top 16 teams in my bracket and put them in buckets.  In my estimation this is the strongest top 10-15 teams we’ve seen in awhile and I can’t argue with prognosticators who think there are at least 10 teams that can win it all.  I don’t believe the group is that large but I’m going to see where I end up as I type this out.
 
Tier 1 – Definitely can win it all this year
Arizona – still undefeated
Iowa State – loss to Kansas last night changes nothing
Michigan – losing to Wisconsin might give them motivation
Houston – I might have them as my favorite right now
Connecticut – I debated putting them in Tier 2 but now that they are at full strength they look dominant
 
Tier 2 – Need to see more; they have a flaw
Duke – contender but they need a consistent third scorer and to stop digging an early hole
Gonzaga – can probably never be a Tier 1 team until they actually win it all
 
Tier 3 – I *think* they are underrated; I need to dig deeper
Purdue – have the talent and guard play.  Only loss is to Iowa State
Illinois – I said they were overrated early in the season.  All losses are to top 20 teams
Vanderbilt – Look solid but they are Vanderbilt
 
Tier 4 – I’m confused; are these teams really contenders?
Nebraska – undefeated and the best story in college but they are Nebraska
BYU – great metrics but only played 1 team in the top 25…and lost
Florida – Jekyll and Hyde all year.  On the upswing but can you trust the guards?
Texas Tech – I want them to be in a higher Tier but outside of Toppin and Anderson…
 
Tier 5 – Frauds
Michigan State – Every year I hear how great they are, but they have 1 Final Four in the last 10 years
North Carolina – I can’t believe I’m typing this, but they are going to really miss Elliot Cadeau.
 
Kurly – What do you got for contenders?

Tuesday Bracketology

1. Arizona  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/North Carolina Central
1. Iowa St.  vs  16. Vermont/Dartmouth
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Michigan  vs  16. Navy
2. Duke  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Quinnipiac
2. Purdue  vs  15. Austin Peay
2. Vanderbilt  vs  15. Wright St.
3. BYU  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Nebraska  vs  14. St. Thomas
3. Texas Tech  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
4. Illinois  vs  13. Hawaii
4. Louisville  vs  13. Liberty
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hofstra
5. North Carolina  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Alabama  vs  12. High Point
5. Virginia  vs  12. Tulsa
5. Kansas  vs  12. Murray St.
6. Utah St.  vs  11. New Mexico
6. Arkansas  vs  11. UCLA/LSU
6. Clemson  vs  11. Texas A&M/Miami OH
6. SMU  vs  11. Ohio St.
7. St. John's  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Tennessee  vs  10. Indiana
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. Kentucky
7. USC  vs  10. Georgia
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Wisconsin
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. Seton Hall
8. Iowa  vs  9. UCF
8. Auburn  vs  9. Villanova

First Four Out - Texas

First Four Out - Baylor

First Four Out - George Mason

First Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Butler

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - San Diego St.

Also Considered - Oklahoma

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Creighton

Nebraska?

Fred Hoiberg is coaching his 7th season at Nebraska. That’s 2 more seasons than he was at Iowa State. Doesn’t seem possible. Neither does an undefeated Nebraska who is 15-0 and 4-0 in the Big 18. Counting the CBC title of a year ago, Nebraska is on a 19-game winning streak. This isn’t just a woman’s volleyball school anymore.

Nebraska has never made the 2nd weekend in the tournament. Never. Before we get too excited, they are 19th in KenPom which is quite good but doesn’t translate to a 2nd weekend team but that feels irrelevant. What might be relevant is, they’re 27th in KenPom luck metric which means this probably isn’t sustainable.

The good news is, they’ve built some equity and even if they finished 8-8 in their last 16, they’re in the dance. They’re projected to finish 14-6 in the league and that’s a mortal lock.

They have some warts on offense. They fire a ton of 3’s and are average at making them. They’re better at 2’s, 60%, 20th in the nation. When they lose in March, it’ll be a cold shooting night. Since they do not rebound their misses, 2nd chances will be limited. 

What they do at an elite level is, not turn it over, 13th in Turnover %. 47th in AdjO isn’t good enough to be threat to win it all and I have my doubts they get much better offensively but it’s good enough to make that 1st 2nd weekend.

Defensively, they’re quite good. 28th best effective defensive fg% and they do not foul. While they don’t crash the offensive glass, they’re 27th in defensive rebounding %. Basically, this is a team that does not beat itself.

I think it’s likely they tail off and are a bit of an afterthought when we get to March but it’s been impressive what they’ve done so far. The majority of the minutes are upperclassmen, so it’s a veteran squad, even if they haven’t all played together their entire college career. Fun season in Lincoln and after the football team sucked again and the lady volleyballers choked like dogs, a welcome respite.

First Bracketology of 2026

 1. Michigan  vs  16. Grambling St./North Carolina Central
1. Arizona  vs  16. Merrimack/Lindenwood
1. Iowa St.  vs  16. Vermont
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Utah Tech
2. Duke  vs  15. Colgate
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. LIU
2. Purdue  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Vanderbilt  vs  15. Lipscomb
3. BYU  vs  14. UC Irvine
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Alabama  vs  14. St. Thomas
3. Kansas  vs  14. Oakland
4. Nebraska  vs  13. East Tennessee St.
4. Louisville  vs  13. Liberty
4. Kansas  vs  13. High Point
4. Kansas  vs  13. William & Mary
5. Illinois  vs  12. Stephen F. Austin
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Memphis
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Murray St.
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. Yale
6. Georgia  vs  11. Saint Louis
6. Virginia  vs  11. Ohio St./Oklahoma
6. Florida  vs  11. Virginia Tech/Miami OH
6. Iowa  vs  11. N.C. State
7. Utah St.  vs  10. Baylor
7. Tennessee  vs  10. Indiana
7. SMU  vs  10. UCLA
7. Auburn  vs  10. Miami Fl
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. LSU
8. USC  vs  9. Seton Hall
8. Clemson  vs  9. UCF
8. Kentucky  vs  9. St. John's

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - Butler

First Four Out - Boise St.

First Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Tulsa

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - Texas

Also Considered - George Mason

Also Considered - Colorado

Also Considered - Creighton

Michigan

Welcome to 2026. As we enter the new year, we have a monster atop the college basketball world, the Michigan Wolverines. They sit atop KenPom with a NetRtg of 39.17, with Arizona second at 34.34. That is a big gap between 1 and 2, even for January 3rd.

It’s largely built on a defense that is 1st in the nation, with a DRtg of 86.7. Again, Arizona is 2nd at 90.5. That is a big gap, too. The offense isn’t too shabby, either, sitting 5th. They’re a very good team.

The results back the numbers. After early season struggles against Wake Forest and TCU, middling teams, let’s take a look at the results.

- 40 point win over SDSU

- 30 point win over Auburn

- 25 point win over Villanova

- 41 point win over McNeese State (I include this because McNeese is 67th in KenPom and will be 12-5 nightmare in March)

- 30 point win over USC

They’re not just winning, they’re eviscerating the competition. Great teams blowout the competition.

Now, there is a lot of basketball left and since Covid, teams have become much more efficient than ever. Duke was actually better at the end of 2025 by a few decimal points and lost in the national semis. Gonzaga and Baylor were at this level in ‘21 at about the same time. Zags maintained but would lose to Baylor in the title game after Baylor saw their numbers dip as they went through the Big XII meat grinder. I think keeping the Baylor comp in mind will be important as Big 18 play ramps up.

UConn of ‘24 is another comp and they largely breezed through the season, with one hiccup in league play. Michigan will find the road much more difficult than the Huskies did, so it is likely they don’t maintain this pace.

Being where they’re at on January 3rd doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme but as of today, Michigan has been the best team in the nation and it isn’t close. How they handle adversity and a grind of a league schedule will determine where they finish but through 2 months, what they’ve done has been quite impressive.