Bracketology 12/30/2024

 

Not much change from last week with most teams playing a soft schedule during winter break.

1 seed vs 16 seed
Tennessee(SEC) vs Aerican(Pat)/ALR(OVC)
Auburn vs CCSU(Neast)/Merrimack(MAAC)
Kentucky vs Southern(SWAC)
Duke(ACC) vs Hamption(CAA)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Marquette(Beast) vs UM-Lowell(Aeast)
Iowa St vs Norfolk(MEAC)
Alabama vs Lamar(Sland)
Gonzaga(WCC) vs Montana St(Bsky)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Kansas(B12) vs High Point(Bsouth)
Florida vs S.D. St(Summit)
Houston vs Milwaukeee(Hor)
Purdue vs Arkansas St(Sbelt)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Texas A&M vs Kent St(MAC)
Oregon vs Lipscomb(Asun)
Pittsburgh vs Grand Canyon(WAC)
UCLA(B1G) vs Furman(SoCon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Illinois vs Princeton(Ivy)
Baylor vs Liberty(Cusa)
Miss St vs Drake(Mvalley)
Michigan St vs Penn St/Vanderbilt
6 seed vs 11 seed
Clemson vs Ohio State/Missouri
Wisconsin vs Arizona St
Texas vs UC-San Diego(Bwest)
Michigan vs Indiana
7 seed vs 10 seed
Oklahoma vs West Virginia
Uconn vs UNC
Memphis(AAC) vs Texas Tech
Mississippi vs Arkansas
8 seed vs 9 seed
Maryland vs St.Marys
Dayton(A10) vs Cincinnati
St. John's vs San Diego St
Georgia vs Utah St(Mwest)
First Four Out
Providence
Nebraska
Boise State
Rhode Island
Next Four Out
Iowa
Xavier
New Mexico
LSU
Also Considered
Indiana
UC-Irvine
Butler
Arizona
BYU
SMU
Creighton
Nevada
Washington St

Checking In: Post Non-Con Conference Thoughts

Let’s take a look at how the conferences are shaping up as we head into the new year.  

ACC: The non-con wasn’t particularly kind to the ACC. It’s basically Duke and everyone else. Did you know, Duke has the nation’s number one KenPom defense?  They’re the lone national title contender in the league.  As of now, no other team projects as a second weekend team. Pitt is the 2nd best team by KenPom. UNC, Clemson and SMU are your only other top-40 KenPom teams. UNC needs to be very good in conference to get a bid. The win over UCLA helps but a mediocre ACC record won’t be enough. League is mediocre at best.

Big East: Speaking of mediocre, the Big East waves hello. They have 3 top-15 KenPom teams and then there is Creighton at 51. Right now, this a 3-bid league. The good news? Marquette is a legit title contender (top-20 offenses and defenses). St. John’s is a legit final 4 contender. UConn got embarrassed in Hawaii but has bounced back. Can they fix their leaky defense? Still a very good offense, if they can figure that side of the ball out, they can still be dangerous in March. As for the rest of the league, a lot of programs are going to have to ask themselves what they want to be at the end of the season.

Big Ten: The Terrapins are 11 in KenPom with UCLA 17 and Michigan State 16.  Oregon is 14. 9 more schools are in the top-50. There doesn’t appear to be a national title contender in the group but Michigan State, Oregon and Maryland can all be claimed as legit Final 4 teams. I have serious doubts about UCLA’s offense. The league title winner could be anyone. The schedule is a mess because there are 18 teams. Will the best team win it? I have my doubts. Can they get 12 bids? Possibly.

Big XII: In a bid to chase football dollars, the league may have turned over its yearly claim as best league but it’s still pretty damn good. Houston and Iowa State have top-20 offenses and defenses.  Kansas has a top-20 offense and are 26th in defense. Texas Tech is 14 overall in KenPom and Baylor 18. The top-5 are really good and Cincinnati entered league play 10-1. 8-9 teams will make the tournament. Unlike the Big Ten, I don’t think the winner of this league will possibly be a meh team. Arizona will need to play well in the league portion of their schedule. One of college basketball’s biggest disappointments this year.

SEC: The best league in the nation this year and it ain’t close. They have a prohibitive national title favorite in Auburn. Duke is second in KenPom and closer to number 6 Gonzaga than Auburn. Tennessee and Florida are top-20 offenses and defenses. Alabama, Mississippi State and Texas A&M are top-20 overall KenPom teams. The bottom team is South Carolina at 64. If Auburn comes out of this league with only 1-2 losses, I have a hard time believing they don’t cut the nets down in April.

The Rest: Gonzaga continues to pace “the rest”. They’re a legit Final 4 contender once again. Memphis and Dayton have the best wins outside Gonzaga and should win their leagues but I’m not sure those teams are second weekend teams. Others to watch are St. Mary’s, VCU, Utah St., Nevada, Boise State and maybe Liberty. 

Adjusted Final 4 are Auburn, Duke, Houston and Gonzaga 

Bracketology - 12/23/24

1 seed vs 16 seed

Tennessee(SEC) vs Aerican(Pat)/ALR(OVC)

Auburn vs CCSU(Neast)/Merrimack(MAAC)

Kentucky vs Southern(SWAC)

Duke(ACC) vs Hamption(CAA)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Gonzaga(WCC) vs UM-Lowell(Aeast)

Marquette(Beast) vs Norfolk(MEAC)

Iowa St vs Lamar(Sland)

Alabama vs Montana St(Bsky)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Kansas(B12) vs High Point(Bsouth)

Florida vs S.D. St(Summit)

Houston vs Milwaukeee(Hor)

Purdue vs Arkansas St(Sbelt)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Texas A&M vs Kent St(MAC)

Oregon vs Lipscomb(Asun)

Pittsburgh vs Grand Canyon(WAC)

UCLA(B1G) vs Furman(SoCon)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Illinois vs Princeton(Ivy)

Baylor vs Liberty(Cusa)

Miss St vs Drake(Mvalley)

Michigan St vs Penn St/Vanderbilt

6 seed vs 11 seed

Clemson vs Ohio State/Missouri

Mississippi vs Arizona St

Wisconsin vs UC-San Diego(Bwest)

San Diego St vs Indiana

7 seed vs 10 seed

Oklahoma vs West Virginia

Uconn vs UNC

Michigan vs Texas Tech

Memphis(AAC) vs Arkansas

8 seed vs 9 seed

Maryland vs St.Marys

Dayton(A10) vs Cincinnati

St. John's vs Texas

Georgia vs Utah St(Mwest)

First Four Out

Providence

Nebraska

Nevada

Rhode Island

Next Four Out

Iowa

Xavier

New Mexico

LSU

Also Considered

Indiana

UC-Irvine

Butler

Arizona

BYU

SMU

Creighton

Bracketology - 12/16/2024

1 seed vs 16 seed

Tennessee(SEC) vs Aerican(Pat)/ALR(OVC)

Auburn vs CCSU(Neast)/Merrimack(MAAC)

Kentucky vs Southern(SWAC)

Duke(ACC) vs UM-Lowell(Aeast)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Gonzaga(WCC) vs Grand Canyon(WAC)

Marquette(Beast) vs Norfolk(MEAC)

Iowa St vs Arkansas St(Sbelt)

Alabama vs Lipscomb(Asun)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Kansas(B12) vs High Point(Bsouth)

Florida vs Lamar(Sland)

Houston vs S.D. St(Summit)

Purdue vs Montana St(Bsky)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Texas A&M vs Kent St(MAC)

Oregon vs Milwaukeee(Hor)

Pittsburgh vs Charleston(CAA)

Clemson vs Furman(SoCon)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Illinois vs Columbia(Ivy)

Baylor vs Liberty(Cusa)

UCLA(B1G) vs Drake(Mvalley)

Michigan St vs Wahe Forest/Penn State

6 seed vs 11 seed

Miss St vs Ohio State/Missouri

Mississippi vs Arizona St

Wisconsin vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)

San Diego St vs Creighton

7 seed vs 10 seed

Oklahoma vs West Virginia

Uconn vs Boise State

Michigan vs Texas Tech

Memphis(AAC) vs Arkansas

8 seed vs 9 seed

Maryland vs Dayton(A10)

St.Marys vs Utah St(Mwest)

Cincinnati vs UNC

Texas vs Georgia

First Four Out

Boise State

Nebraska

Nevada

Rhode Island

Next Four Out

Iowa

Xavier

New Mexico

LSU

Also Considered

Indiana

Wake Forest

Butler

Arizona

BYU

 
1 seed vs 16 seed
Tennessee(SEC) vs Army(Pat)/SIUE(OVC)
Auburn vs CCSU(Neast)/St.Peter's(MAAC)
Kentucky vs Southern(SWAC)
Duke(ACC) vs Bryant(Aeast)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Gonzaga(WCC) vs Grand Canyon(WAC)
Kansas(B12) vs Norfolk(MEAC)
Iowa St vs Texas St(Sbelt)
Alabama vs N.Florida(Asun)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Marquette(Beast) vs Radford(Bsouth)
Florida vs McNeese(Sland)
Baylor vs S.D. St(Summit)
Purdue vs N.Colorado(Bsky)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Houston vs Kent St(MAC)
Cincinnati vs PFW(Hor)
Texas A&M vs Elon(CAA)
Memphis(AAC) vs Furman(SoCon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Pittsburgh vs Columbia(Ivy)
St. Johns vs Liberty(Cusa)
UCLA(B1G) vs Nevada/Maryland
Oregon vs Rhode Island/Penn State
6 seed vs 11 seed
Illinois vs Drake(Mvalley)
Ohio St vs Arizona St
Wisconsin vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
Texas Tech vs San Diego St
7 seed vs 10 seed
Michigan St vs West Virginia
Miss St vs Utah St(Mwest)
Mississippi vs Texas
UNC vs Arkansas
8 seed vs 9 seed
BYU vs Dayton(A10)
Oklahoma vs St.Marys
Uconn vs Michigan
Clemson vs Georgia
First Four Out
Boise State
Nebraska
Arizona
Creighton
Next Four Out
Iowa
Xavier
New México
LSU
Also Considered
Indiana
Wake Forest
Butler

Bracketology

Now that the SEC-ACC "Challenge" is done and we start to move into conference play Bracketology will start up next week.  Lots of great action so far and the race for the championship seems wide open.