Sorry about that font yesterday. Tried something new.
1. Texas continues to look good after the Beard issue beating Baylor
2. Texas Tech upsets Iowa Stat who have lost 2 in a row
3. On a light Monday night Oral Roberts wins by 50. 20-4 and a NET around 50. Not quite an at-large resume but somebody you don't want to see across from you in round 1.
Would someone step up and be good?
10. Kansas - I feel obligated to put a Big XII team in the top-10 and Kansas still has a top-20 defense and offense, so yay? Wayne Simien
9. Arizona - Swept a weekend trip to Washington. Blew out Washington yesterday. Hassan Adams
8. St. Mary’s - I texted Brian that the Gaels were suffocating last night as they had BYU sitting on 8 points or so late into the first half and then the Gaels stopped making shots and let BYU get back in the game and lead for a large chunk of it. St. Mary’s will be undone by the offense in March. Omar Samhan
7. Virginia - The ACC is pretty blah, huh? Sean Singletary
6. Marquette - Might win the Big East. Trips to UConn and Omaha remain but are projected to finish 16-4 in league which seems remarkable. Just a beautiful team to watch at the moment. Chris Crawford
5. Alabama - Terrible week, really. Survived Mississippi State and then destroyed by Oklahoma. Sooners shot 57% yesterday but the Tide looked bad this week. Ronald Steele
4. UCLA - On a 2-game skid. Huh. Jason Kapono
3. Houston - Have my doubts about the Cougars but they battled back against Cincinnati yesterday. Jarace Walker really took over late and was quite impressive. Starting to remind me of ‘19 UVA. Slow tempo scares me but think they have enough players to takeover games. Gee Gervin
2. Purdue - Man, the Big Ten is pretty blah. Chris Kramer
1. Tennessee - So, they beat Georgia by 29 and handled Texas with ease. Have won 4 straight by double digits since their loss at home to Kentucky. Favored in all games the rest of the year. Wayne Chism
I’ll readily admit, I wasn’t a huge fan but he was one of the true voices of the sport in my formative years and when you heard him calling a game, you knew it was an important game.
I was too young to hear his work with Al McGuire and Dick Enberg but know how much people enjoyed that team. Really, they’ve never truly replaced him. Clark Kellog and Grant Hill are fine. Raftery is fine but not as sharp as he was in Billy’s prime.
This game is over
1. Uconn loses again, this time to Xavier. The wheels have come off...
2. Wisconsin is crushed by Maryland. The wheels are coming off...
3. Texas A&M beats Auburn. Nothing about wheels yet.
1. Georgetown beats DePaul to end it's 29 game Big East losing streak
2. Iowa State takes their turn in the loaded Big 12 by taking down Kansas State
3. Kentucky looks to of turned it around after 4 straight wins.
1. Kansas loses at Baylor making it 3in a row for the Jayhawks
2. Duke gets "punched out" at Virginia Tech.
3. Nevada outlasts New Mexico in double overtime.
Bonus - Wisconsin lost to Northwestern.
1. Connecticut falls again; this time to Seton Hall.
2. DePaul gets a huge win over Xavier in a classic letdown spot after beating Marquette
3. Speaking of Marquette, they get another big win over Providence.
The Big East is fun this year.
1. Kansas State beats Kansas by 1 in a great game.
2. Iowa State beats Texas by 11.
3. Wake Forest hands Clemson their first ACC lost.
1. Purdue beats Michigan State to go to 17-1
2. Florida Atlantic beats Western Kentucky to go to 17-1
3. Charleston beats William and Mary to go to 19-1
Anybody see today's theme?
1. Gonzaga squeaks out a 1 point win over BYU
2. Iowa rallies in the last minute and overtime to beat Michigan. Neither are tournament worthy at this point.
3. St.Mary's scores 70 over LMU and retains a top 12 profile.
After pulling the plug on Wojo in Spring of ‘21, the question of who the next coach would be seemed to focus on mid-major rising stars (looking at you Dennis Gates) and a Majerus disciple (looking at you Porter Moser). Coming off a Big XII tourney title and 3-seed in the tournament, whatever hot seat Shaka Smart was on, seemed cooler despite flaming out in round one of the dance.
As it turns out, that wasn’t necessarily true and Shaka Smart took the Marquette job. A few narratives emerged, including the thought he was running away instead of to in taking it. I was skeptical of the hire. His track record since 2011 isn’t terrible, but the shine had worn off.
Fast forward to today and we seem to have found a coach and program that found each other at the right time. Both are reinvigorated and an apathetic fan/alumni base has also become reinvigorated.
Entering the season, MU was picked to finish 9th in the Big East which got this response from junior guard Tyler Kolek, “fuck ‘em”. And that’s exactly what he’s been doing running point for the 3rd best offense in the nation.
Running and offense that averages 70 possessions per game, the Golden Eagles have the nations second best effective fg%. In last nights win, MU averaged 1.45 ppp in the second half against a KenPom top-10 defense. That’s almost certainly more impressive than the 1.65 ppp in the second half Saturday against Georgetown.
Some other fun offensive numbers include the nation’s best 2pt. fg % of 60.2 and the 24th best turnover %. The guards have been fantastic at creating and protecting the ball. This is a far cry from other really good offenses seen when Wojo was coaching.
Is there cause for concern? Yes. The defense isn’t good enough to be more than a second weekend team and I’m not sure it can be better than it is given the lack of heft inside. Having the a defensive effective fg% of 51%, 206th in the nation limits the ceiling of the team at the moment. The staff recognizes this and has focused their efforts on deflections and turnovers. MU has a defensive turnover % that’s 38th best. Rebounding on both sides is poor. These issues limit how good they can be but the offense is strong enough for them to be a legit regional finalist which is incredible given the expectations by many before the season.
While I list the numbers, I’d be remiss not to talk about the eye test as well. What’s probably most remarkable has been the improvement from last year to this by the guys that returned and how the freshman continue to improve through the course of this season. There will likely be attrition but if not, the whole roster is eligible to return in 2023-24. And if we want to look at the numbers, we’ll the individual parts are pretty impressive.
Kolek 9th in assist rate, 3.2% steal rate
Kam 119.2 ORTG, up from 105.5 last year
OMP 46th in effective fg%, 35tg in TS%
Oso 29th in effective fg%
Mitchell, a sophomore guard with a TO% of only 9.9% which was 22% last year
If your a Golden Eagles fan, you might be done crawling out of the desert and the future looks brighter than the desert left behind.
1. Maybe I'm a little biases but Marquette over Uconn was huge. The Huskies have now lost 3 of their last 4 after starting 14-0
2. Penn State crushes Indiana by 19. There's Purdue and everybody else.
3. Texas continues to win by squeaking out one against TCU
Bonus - Xavier over Creighton was a fun one!
As the season goes along I'm going to try and fit a daily note with the 3 biggest topics of the day. These will be my Big 3 of the Day and will just be quick hitters in addition to the Backetology, Bubble Watch, and Articles that Kurly writes.
With that, here's Wednesday's Big 3:
1. Kentucky loses again, this time to South Carolina. It's Panic Time in Lexington
2. San Diego State beats Nevada to take sole possession of the Mountain West
3. Iowa State blasts Texas Tech out of consideration
10. Xavier - Winners of 9 straight, their 3 losses are by a total of 13 points. UConn is the favorite in the Big East but X isn’t far behind. They need to tighten up the defense but the offense is second weekend good.
9. Virginia - This UVA team isn’t going to win a national championship but it’s setup to bore us into the second weekend. They don’t do anything great but in 2023, that’s ok.
8. Purdue - The best of the Big Ten started hot but has a home loss to a very good Rutgers team and a squeaker win at Ohio State. Elite offense, pretty good defense. Another team that screams losing to a 7 or 8 seed in March.
7. Texas - Have overcome the coaching shock and outside a blitzing at Kansas State, look like the team we all expected.
6. Tennessee - Not sold on the offensive side of the ball. Elite defenders, I mean clear cut best defensive team in the nation, but my Rick Barnes bias leaves me leery.
5. Alabama - Any big time program that makes a coaching change should target Nate Oats. Plays a fun style of basketball and wildly efficient. Final Four squad.
4. UCLA - If a tree falls in the forest and all that jazz, there best win is over a weird Kentucky squad. They check all the boxes. Clearly the best team in their league, feels like cruise control until March.
3. Kansas - Unlike UCLA, the Jayhawks will be tested in nearly every game on the schedule. The Big XII is an absolute joy to watch and a meat grinder for all the teams. Every team is in the KenPom top-40.
2. UConn - Two double digit losses are a concern but double digit wins over Alabama and Iowa State on a neutral Court are as impressive as any this year. The coach needs a longer fuse, though.
1. Houston - Good backcourt and an elite defense. Another team on cruise control until March. We may look back and say, yeah, we should have seen they’d win it all. I’m less certain at the moment, however.
I’ve had this idea for awhile and that was to rank the national champs of the KenPom era. I didn’t include 2020 because of covid. The criteria was this. I ranked national champs based on best Adjusted Efficiency Margin and then added each teams final spot in Adjusted Offense and Defense. I used that total to rank overall and have the difference from where they were in the initial Adjusted Efficiency Margin. Let’s dive in working from worst to best.
20. 2014 UConn - The ‘14 Huskies had a final AdjEM of 22.13 and finished KenPom 15th overall. They were 39th and 10th in AdjustedO and AdjustedD. They were the worst in this group and it’s not really close.
19. 2011 UConn - They finished 10th in KenPom overall and survived the grueling Big East tournament. Prior to March, though, this wasn’t the team anyone expected to win another title for the Big East.
18. 2003 Syracuse - This one surprised me a bit but if we remember, that Orange team was a 3-seed. They actually had the 2nd worse overall AdjEM of all the teams here. They didn’t have a top 10 offense or defense but did have Carmelo Anthony.
17. 2021 Baylor - This one is another surprise. If we remember correctly, Baylor had one of the best overall AdjustedEM of the KenPom era, 3rd best of all national champs but a 22nd overall defense is the worst defense of any of the campions listed.
16. 2022 Kansas - 17th best AdjEM and an offensive final at 6th and 17th on defense. Not close to one of Bull Self’s best teams but the one that got him a second title.
15. 2017 North Carolina - Do you remember much about this UNC team? They were 16 in AdjEM.
14. 2009 North Carolina - I admit, based on the eye test, I’d have this team higher. Based strictly on AdjEM, they’d still only be 11th. Best offensive team in the country but 18th on defense in 2009.
13. 2004 UConn - Not much to say here. They finished 2nd in KenPom in 2004 with top 10’s on offense and defense. Duke was one in KenPom this season but UConn knocked them out in the semi-finals.
T-11. 2015 Duke & 2007 Florida - Neither team finished the season 1st in KenPom but got what mattered, national championships. Kentucky and UNC were KenPom number 1’s that year.
10. 2018 Villanova - The Wildcats second title team actually had a better AdjEM than the ‘16 team based largely on one of the best offenses of the KenPom era.
9. 2002 Maryland The Terps were 3rd in KenPom this season, Duke was the best. The Terps did have the 4th best offense and defense.
8. 2006 Florida- This Gators team was 15th best overall in AdjustedEM but had top 10 offenses and defenses. ‘07 team had a better overall AdjustedEM but the defense was just outside the top-10
7. 2012 Kentucky - Speaking out eye test, I’d have a hard time finding a better team than this Kentucky team. They actually would be 8th if just based on AdjustedEM. Top-10 on offense and defense, this remains Cal’s best team.
T-5. 2013 Louisville & 2016 Villanova - Two of the more fun teams of the KenPom era. Louisville had one of the best defenses of the KenPom era and a top-10 offense. Nova was top-5 on both sides of the court.
T-3. 2005 North Carolina & 2019 Virginia - Remarkably, both had the 2nd best offenses and 5th best defenses each year. UVA’s 2019 team also had the 2nd best AdjEM overall of all national champs in this era.
2. 2010 Duke - I’ll admit, I wouldn’t have thought this. Duke finished the year atop KenPom with the best offense and 6th best defense. They had the 5th best overall AdjEM of this era but this was K’s 2nd best team of this era. His 2002 team was actually better.
1. 2008 Kansas - The 2008 season was probably one of the best of the century for high quality college basketball and the champs earned this. They the 2nd best offense and best overall defense. Their AdjustedEM of +35.21 was better than 2019 Virginia who finished at +34.22. They’re the best and it’s not remotely close
