Two more conferences kick off today with the Big South and American East going.
In the Big South Winthrop is the 1 seed and is currently a 12/13 seed in the tournament. They have the potential to beat a 5 or 4 seed in the NCAA tournament so we will be cheering them on.
The America East's 1 seed is UMBC but the favorite is probably 2 seeded Vermont. These teams top out at a 14 line but I wouldn't be surprised to see them lower. TJ Sorrentine and Taylor Coppenrath ain't walking through that door.
|
1
seed vs 16 seed |
|
Gonzaga
(WCC) vs Texas St(Sbelt)/ PVA&M (SWAC) |
|
Baylor
(B12) vs NC A&T(MEAC)/S.Dakota(Smmt) |
|
Michigan
(B1G) vs Cleveland St (Hor) |
|
Illinois
vs Wagner (NEC) |
|
2
seed vs 15 seed |
|
Ohio
State vs Grand Canyon (WAC) |
|
Villanova
(Beast) vs Siena (MAAC) |
|
Alabama
(SEC) vs James Madison (Col) |
|
Houston
vs E.Washington (Bsky) |
|
3
seed vs 14 seed |
|
West
Virginia vs Furman (SoCon) |
|
Iowa
vs UMBC (Aeast) |
|
Florida
St (ACC) vs North Texas (Cusa) |
|
Oklahoma
vs Abilene Christian (Sland) |
|
4
seed vs 13 seed |
|
Texas
vs Liberty (Asun) |
|
Kansas
vs Colgate (Pat) |
|
Virginia
vs UCSB (Bwest) |
|
Arkansas
vs Belmont (OVC) |
|
5
seed vs 12 seed |
|
Creighton
vs Winthrop (Bsouth) |
|
Tennessee
vs Toledo (MAC) |
|
Purdue
vs Indiana/North Carolina |
|
Wisconsin
vs W.Kentucky/Connecticut |
|
6
seed vs 11 seed |
|
Virginia
Tech vs Colorado St |
|
Missouri
vs Wichita St (AAC) |
|
Texas
Tech vs St. Bonaventure |
|
Oklahoma
St vs Xavier |
|
7
seed vs 10 seed |
|
Florida
vs Drake |
|
Clemson
vs Oregon |
|
UCLA
(P10) vs VCU (A10) |
|
USC
vs Boise State |
|
8
seed vs 9 seed |
|
Colorado
vs Loyola (Mvalley) |
|
San
Diego St (Mwest) vs Maryland |
|
Louisville
vs LSU |
|
BYU
vs Rutgers |
|
First
Four Out |
|
Duke |
|
Michigan
State |
|
Seton Hall |
|
Stanford |
|
Next
Four Out |
|
Minnesota |
|
Georgia Tech |
|
St.
Louis |
|
SMU |
|
Also
Considered |
|
St.
John's |
|
Memphis |
|
Louisiana
Tech |
|
UAB |
|
Richmond |
|
Syracuse |
|
Utah State |
Michigan State got another huge win and is now one of the
First Four out. Belmont took the one
loss they could not take and probably need the auto bid now.
With Ohio State losing to Michigan State I am moving
Illinois to the top line. I might be the
only person who thinks this but I like the Illini better.
The game of the night on the bubble is St. Louis vs Richmond. Neither team is in but a loss may drop them
out of consideration.
Bracket coming later today
Conference Tournaments start tonight with the Horizon league kicking us off. Cleveland State is the 1 seed but I will be taking Wright State for the mild upset. We are looking at 14 seed or so if Wright St wins. Everybody else and it's 15/16.
North Carolina was the big loser last night. Took a chance on a home game versus Marquette and came up short. I still have them as my last team in but that’s by a thread. Who are they playing in First Four according to my bracket? Fellow Blue Blood Indiana, who also lost last night. Quite the battle brewing for those last couple spots with Duke and Michigan State right there.
Tonight's big game is Iowa vs Michigan but we have some bubble action too. Western Kentucky has a gift game against Houston. They are in my Next Four out but a win here is probably enough to leap several teams. Boise State plays San Diego State and while both teams are in they don’t have a lot of room for error. I currently have 3 Mountain West teams in and Utah State as my first team out. I feel like they end up with 3 in March but best to keep winning. Speaking of Michigan State, they get another shot at a huge win with Ohio State tonight. They are coming on strong and no matter what the committee says, a big win at the end of the season just does mean more.
Also in action tonight is Minnesota who is falling like a
lead balloon and needs to string some wins together to get back on track. Lastly is Mid-Major Belmont, who is currently
24-1 and leading the Ohio Valley. Their
resume is a bit bare but it’s a unique year.
If they go undefeated in conference until their tournament and lose will
it be enough?
Last Night Michigan State and Connecticut got big wins to
stay in contention for an at-large bid.
On the flip side St. John’s and St. Louis took steps backwards. St. John’s wasn’t in before the night but St.
Louis was. I think they are now out but
I won’t reformulate the bracket until after tonight’s games.
As for tonight we have a few games to keep an eye on.St.
Boanventure plays Davidson and the Bonnies’ are one of my last 4 in. Marquette takes on North Carolina and boy
would I love to see the Tar Heels drop one here. They are secure even with a loss but they don’t
have ton of room for error. I give
credit to Roy Williams for finding these games to help bolster their resume. It can work in their favor but if they lose…
The last game worth mentioning is Rutgers vs Indiana. These teams are in the 9-11 range and I don’t
think the loser drops out but I think one of these 2 teams is left our come
March. This game could be the sticking
point to some people on the committee.
|
1
seed vs 16 seed |
|
Gonzaga
(WCC) vs Texas St(Sbelt)/ PVA&M (SWAC) |
|
Baylor
(B12) vs NC A&T(MEAC)/S.Dakota(Smmt) |
|
Michigan
(B1G) vs James Madison (Col) |
|
Alabama
(SEC) vs Bryant (NEC) |
|
2
seed vs 15 seed |
|
Ohio
State vs Grand Canyon (WAC) |
|
Illinois
vs Siena (MAAC) |
|
Villanova
(Beast) vs Vermont(Aeast) |
|
Iowa
vs E.Washington (Bsky) |
|
3
seed vs 14 seed |
|
Oklahoma
vs UNC-Greensboro (SoCon) |
|
West
Virginia vs Liberty (Asun) |
|
Houston
vs North Texas (Cusa) |
|
Florida
St (ACC) vs Abilene Christian (Sland) |
|
4
seed vs 13 seed |
|
Virginia
vs Wright St (Hor) |
|
Texas
vs Colgate (Pat) |
|
Texas
Tech vs UCSB (Bwest) |
|
Kansas
vs Winthrop (Bsouth) |
|
5
seed vs 12 seed |
|
USC
(P12) vs Toledo (MAC) |
|
Virginia
Tech vs Belmont (OVC) |
|
Tennessee
vs St. Bonaventure/Connecticut |
|
Missouri
vs Drake/Colorado St |
|
6
seed vs 11 seed |
|
Purdue
vs Maryland |
|
Wisconsin
vs Wichita St (AAC) |
|
Creighton
vs Indiana |
|
Oklahoma
St vs VCU (A10) |
|
7
seed vs 10 seed |
|
Florida
vs North Carolina |
|
Clemson
vs Oregon |
|
UCLA
vs Saint Louis |
|
Arkansas
vs Boise St (Mwest) |
|
8
seed vs 9 seed |
|
Colorado
vs Loyola (Mvalley) |
|
San
Diego St vs Rutgers |
|
LSU
vs Louisville |
|
BYU
vs Xavier |
|
First
Four Out |
|
Utah State |
|
Seton Hall |
|
Minnesota |
|
Stanford |
|
Next
Four Out |
|
Syracuse |
|
Duke |
|
SMU |
|
W.
Kentucky |
|
Also
Considered |
|
St.
John's |
|
Memphis |
|
Dayton |
|
Providence |
|
Michigan
State |
|
Louisiana
Tech |
|
UAB |
|
Richmond |
This will be a deep and long dive into the hiring of mid-major coaches. This is the most common path taken. Let’s jump in.
I’m not including Brad Underwood’s year at Oklahoma State which was a success but he only spent a year in Stillwater.
Not Enough Data Yet
The following coaches were hired recently and I don’t think we have enough data yet to form an opinion.
- Steve Forbes at Wake Forest
- Kevin Keatts at NC State, leaning bust
- Kyle Smith at Washington State
- Eric Musselman at Arkansas
- Joe Dooley at ECU
- Ron Hunter at Tulane
- Kermit Davis at Ole Miss
- John Brannen, Cincinnati
- LaVall Jordan, Butler, like Keatts maybe leaning bust but 2 bids (likely in 2020) in 4 years
Successful Hires
- Mike Young has maintained what Buzz Williams started at Virginia Tech. He had a bare cupboard when coming on but has the Hokies in 3rd place this year.
- Jim Larranaga at Miami, his seat is probably getting warm and he is getting older but he’s done very good work.
- Steve Pikiell at Rutgers, sigh, he has pounded nails indeed.
- Chris Bears at Texas Tech fits in this category because he came from UALR but he also spent a lot of time in Lubbock as an assistant. Perfect coach for a tough place to win. Red Raiders fans should thank their lucky stars.
- Andy Enfield at USC could go the other way if the NCAA nails him but after two rebuilding years, He made back-to-back tournaments and were a bubble team year 5. They missed the tourney in year 6 but would have been back last year and are clearly in this year. Has been a very good recruiter
- Will Wade at LSU, see above.
- Cuonzo Martin at Tennessee took over a program in NCAA trouble and was in a Sweet 16 his 3rd year before being run out of Knoxville
- Nate Oats has been a revelation for Bama fans and just got a fat contract extension. Marquette fans drea of a guy who ain’t coming.
- Danny Hurley at UConn is a success just for helping convince the administration they needed to be in the Big East.
Busts
- Steve Donahue and Jim Christian at BC
- Brian Gregory at Georgia Tech
- Archie Miller at Indiana
- Richard Pitino at Minnesota, I’m not sure how good this job is but he’s only had 1 winning record in league in 8 years. That’s not good enough
- John Groce at Illinois
- Pat Chambers at Pebble State
- Mike Rice at Rutgers
- Tim Miles at Nebraska
- Steve Prohm at Iowa State
- Shaka Smart at Texas, 3 tourney bids in 6 years and if holds, 2 winning records in league play isn’t good enough at Texas. Brian argues it’s the school and he could be right.
- Wayne Tinkle at Oregon State, it’s hard to believe he’s been there 7 years. In those 7 years, they’ve had 1 winning record in league play and no tourney bids. It’s a hard job but this isn’t good enough.
- Bobby Hurley at Arizona State, he’s made 3 tourneys (likely 2020 bid) in 6 years and had 2 winning league records. Has a burger boy this year and doing nothing with him.
- Jerod Haase at Stanford, no bids his first 4 years and on the bubble this year. This may be harsh. Could revisit this down the road.
- Billy Kennedy at Texas A&M, made 2 Sweet 16’s and battled health issue, so this could be harsh but he only had 2 winning records in league play.
- Johnny Jones at LSU
- Donnie Tyndall at Tennessee
- Bryce Drew at Vandy
I’m genuinely curious to get the reaction to the Brad Brownell tenure at Clemson. He’s been there 11 years and has only 2 bids but was on the bubble a lot. If the record holds this year, he’ll have finished at .500 or better in league play 7 times. At a place where basketball is an afterthought, I have no idea how to classify him.
What can we learn from this? It’s my opinion, but nothing. Hiring coaches is a crapshoot. Many hires look good on paper and then fail spectacularly. Nate Oats seemed a good coach but Alabama isn’t a place you’d expect great success and here we are. Patience is key as well except when it isn’t. A bad year or two at the beginning shouldn’t cause panic but as in the case of a place like Minnesota, that’s your highest expectation?
If Marquette makes a coaching change, ignore the cliches. You and I have no idea who will be successful in Milwaukee. All you can do is hope as a fan or alum. Good luck with that.
Houston vs Wichita State (First Four out)
BYU (9 seed) vs Pacific
St. Mary’s (Also Considered) vs Gonzaga
Since the end of the 2010 season, 16 job openings have been filled by assistant coaches. We can break these down into two types, the promotion from within and the hire off another staff.
Promoted From Within
Ten coaches have been promoted from within, either replacing fired coaches or coaches that left or retired.
Of the 10, we can eliminate Brandon Miller of Butler who left after 1 season. An argument can be made he was a success since he brought Chris Holtmann aboard from a head spot at Gardner-Webb but his one season can’t be quantified.
The failure include James Johnson who replaced Seth Greenberg at Virginia Tech, Wyking Jones who replaced Cuonzo Martin at Cal and Kevin Ollie at UConn. Ollie won a national title with largely Jim Calhoun players and didn’t do anything afterwards and would eventually be fired with cause and be given a show-cause. UConn has not been the same program it was when he took over, national title and all.
I’m not sure where Mike Boynton of Oklahoma State and Tim Jankovich of SMU fall at the moment. Both programs are having decent seasons. Jankovich had a great team in 2016-17 but regressed mightily prior to this season
We can classify Greg Gard as a success along with Chris Holtmann at Butler. I believe we have to wait and see with regards to Aaron McKie at Temple and Travis Steele at Xavier.
Hired From Outside
Of these 6, 2 were abject failures. Ricky Ray hired from Clemson to take over Mississippi State did not work out for either party. Orlando Antigua was a train wreck at South Florida coming over from Kentucky.
3 of the hires were long-term assistants for coaching legends. Chris Collins and Steve Wojociehowski left Duke for Northwestern and Marquette. Mike Hopkins left Syracuse for Washington. None of them would be considered the heir apparents anymore from where they left. Each has had some middling success but all 3 sit on the hot seat.
Finally, Danny Manning was hired at Tulsa off the Kansas bench. He would make one tournament and bolt for Wake Forest where he would be unceremoniously fired.
Of all the names mentioned, Kevin Ollie is the only one with a Final 4 and his tenure ended with a show cause and probation. The best of the lot is Greg Gard, a coach who was doing a lot of heavy lifting well before he got promoted. Interestingly enough, there was enough scuttlebutt to suggest King Barry didn’t want to hire him.
Butler and Xavier followed a model that has worked for decades. The problem is, they haven’t found their Mark Few to stay in place. Breeding great coaches is awesome. Losing them every few years isn’t.
I think an argument can be made, if it’s not from within, hiring an assistant without any head coaching expereince is a risky proposition.
In this next category, we’ll explore guys leaving jobs while under contract for another job for one of the football 5 jobs or a job in the Big East or AAC. While we can debate the merits of one job versus another, that’s a debate for another time. Chris Holtmann was never going to get paid at Butler like he does at Ohio State but there isn’t much of a reason Brad Underwood couldn’t get paid and be successful at Oklahoma State versus Illinois.
There have been 16 moves I consider lateral since the end of the 2010 season. Two of them include Mick Cronin from Cincinnati to UCLA and Buzz Williams from Virginia Tech to Texas A&M prior to the 2019 season. It’s too early to judge either of those tenures and given the pandemic, we’reprobably at least two more years from having a real good idea.
A third is Cuonzo Martin (He’ll be mentioned again later). He’s had a good year at Missouri this year after leaving Cal 4 years ago. His previous 3 seasons at Missouri have been good his 1st season and bad the last 2. That said, at the moment, I’d think Tigers fans are happy with him.
Speaking of Buzz, he is one of the 4 lateral hires I’d rate a success of the 14 remaining. His move from Marquette to Virginia Tech was a rousing success. In fact, it continues to be as Mike Young has built positively on the foundation laid by Buzz. I also categorize the aforementioned hires of Holtmann and Underwood as successes, too.
I wrestled with Frank Martin’s tenure at South Carolina. He’s only made one tournament but he took the Gamecocks to a Final 4 and they were a bubble team last year. This is his 9th year at USC East and this year has been bad and the seat is warm but in a place where football still rules, that one Final 4 makes him a success.
I’d categorize the rest as failures or disappointments at best. This includes Jeff Bzdelik at Wake Forest from Colorado, Trent Johnson from LSU to TCU, Mike Anderson from Mizzou to Arkansas, Cuonzo Martin from Tennessee to Cal, Josh Pastner from Memphis to Georgia Tech, Kevin Stallings from Vandy to Pitt, Frank Haith from Mizzou to Tulsa, Tubby Smith from Texas Tech to Memphis and Jamie Dixon from Pitt to TCU.
A few of those coaches got out before getting fired. Trent Johnson was on the hot seat at LSU as was Pastner at Memphis and Stallings at Vandy. Cuonzo left Tennessee feeling disrespected after replacing Bruce Pearl and while making the tourney at Cal, he wasn’t a long-term answer and was looking for anything, including Marquette at the time. Given Cal’s struggles since he left, he didn’t leave it better than he found it.
Mike Anderson was an assistant under Nolan Richardson and was seen as a natural fit at Arkansas but he only made the tournament 3 out of 8 years and never made the 2nd weekend. Tubby was a disaster at Memphis.
Jamie Dixon’s first two seasons at TCU were quite good but even then, his best Big XII record is .500. They’ve progressively gotten worse the last 3 seasons and are a sub-100 KenPom team at the moment. Couple that with his flirtations elsewhere while at TCU and we can see where this is heading.
What does this mean? Well, I think a lateral hire has shown that it’s a risky proposition. Underwood and Holtmann are almost unicorns. If Oklahoma State acts like a school committed to winning, Underwood doesn’t leave. He didn’t have any Big Ten ties and was a Frank Martin disciple. Holtmann may have left Butler at some point but is probably still there if Thad Matta doesn’t have to retire. Butler has been snake bitten by late cycle hires.
A lot of times, you’re bringing in a coach looking for a place to fall or a coaching vagabond such as Buzz Williams and you get lucky. Some of the coaches mentioned here are on the hot seat now or getting there.
|
1
seed vs 16 seed |
|
Gonzaga
(WCC) vs Texas St(Sbelt)/ PVA&M (SWAC) |
|
Baylor
(B12) vs NC A&T(MEAC)/CleveSt(Hor) |
|
Michigan
(B1G) vs James Madison (Col) |
|
Ohio
State vs Bryant (NEC) |
|
2
seed vs 15 seed |
|
Alabama
(SEC) vs Grand Canyon (WAC) |
|
Illinois
vs Siena (MAAC) |
|
Villanova
(Beast) vs S. Dakota St (Summit) |
|
Houston
(AAC) vs E.Washington (Bsky) |
|
3
seed vs 14 seed |
|
Virginia
(ACC) vs UNC-Greensboro (SoCon) |
|
Texas
Tech vs Liberty (Asun) |
|
Iowa
vs Vermont(Aeast) |
|
Texas
vs Abilene Christian (Sland) |
|
4
seed vs 13 seed |
|
Oklahoma
vs Belmont (OVC) |
|
West
Virginia vs Colgate (Pat) |
|
Missouri
vs UCSB (Bwest) |
|
Tennessee
vs North Texas (Cusa) |
|
5
seed vs 12 seed |
|
Florida
St vs Toledo (MAC) |
|
Florida
vs Winthrop (Bsouth) |
|
USC
(P12) vs Stanford/Seton Hall |
|
Virginia
Tech vs Drake/Colorado St |
|
6
seed vs 11 seed |
|
Wisconsin
vs St. Bonaventure |
|
Kansas
vs Indiana |
|
Creighton
vs Connecticut |
|
Purdue
vs Utah State (Mwest) |
|
7
seed vs 10 seed |
|
Oklahoma
St vs VCU (A10) |
|
Clemson
vs Oregon |
|
Rutgers
vs Saint Louis |
|
Arkansas
vs LSU |
|
8
seed vs 9 seed |
|
Colorado
vs Loyola (Mvalley) |
|
Minnesota
vs San Diego St |
|
Louisville
vs BYU |
|
UCLA
vs Xavier |
|
First
Four Out |
|
Boise
St |
|
Wichita
St |
|
St.
John's |
|
North
Carolina |
|
Next
Four Out |
|
Syracuse |
|
Richmond |
|
SMU |
|
W.
Kentucky |
|
Also
Considered |
|
Penn
State |
|
Pittsburgh |
|
St.
Mary's |
|
Memphis |
|
Dayton |
|
Providence |
|
Michigan
State |
|
Louisiana
Tech |
|
Davidson |
|
Duke |
|
Maryland |
|
UAB |
In this section, we’ll breakdown guys hired out of the NBA and guys hired after being fired elsewhere.
NBA Guys:
Since 2010, 8 guys have been hired from the NBA. This doesn’t include Fred Hoiberg who Nebraska hired last year. Hoiberg’s trip to the NBA and back to college wasn’t unexpected. Secondly, he hasn’t had an opportunity to put his stamp on the Nebraska program.
Of the 8 hires, it’s been a mixed bag. Mike Dunleavy to Tulane in 2017 was bizarre at the time and the results weren’t good. Eddie Jordan took the Rutgers job following the Mike Rice disaster and failed to record a winning season. Chris Mullin came from the NBA with no coaching pedigree and while managing a tournament bid, his tenure at St. John’s wasn’t very good. Avery Johnson was a bust at Alabama and his successor has been wildly successful.
There are 3 guys still coaching who came from the NBA. Two are school alum, Patrick Ewing at Georgetown and Juwan Howard at Michigan. Ewing has spun his wheels while Howard has Michigan inline for a 1-seed in his 2nd season, something even his predecessor didn’t accomplish. Both coaches arrived with solid pedigrees within the coaching world unlike Chris Mullin.
Jerry Stackhouse is at Vandy and while his team was bad last year and better this year, he’s staring 2 consecutive sub-100 KenPom seasons in the face.
Larry Brown was brought into SMU to rejuvenate the program and did just that.
It’s a small sample size but dipping your toes into the NBA for your coach hasn’t been a recipe for success.
Fired and Rehired:
There have been 16 of these type of hires since 2010. I’ve classified 5 of these as failures and 6 as good hires. There are 5 still I’d classify as works in progress.
Some of these coaches come with baggage. They include Bruce Pearl, Mark Gottfried, Billy Gillespie and Kelvin Sampson. Some had worn out there welcome elsewhere. Those include Tubby Smith, Rick Barnes, Johnny Dawkins, Bruce Weber and Mike Anderson.
I classify Mark Gottfried as a failure at NC State because of his NCAA run-ins. Billy Gillespie was eventually fired at TCU. Ernie Kent was fired at Washington State while Dave Leitao and Brian Gregory are currently floundering at DePaul and South Florida respectively.
Tubby Smith was a success at Texas Tech, taking them to the tournament before bolting for Memphis. It set a foundation that Chris Beard has built upon. Bruce Pearl has taken Auburn to a Final 4 (this could go the other way with the NCAA investigating and all), Rick Barnes has been fantastic at Tennessee and Johnny Dawkins took UCF to a tournament and before this season hadn’t had a losing record there. Kelvin Sampson has done wonders at Houston.
I placed Bruce Weber as a success as he did help Kansas State to a share of a Big XII title and given the challenges of coaching there with Kansas looming large, I think he’s done a respectable job. That said, a fresh start might be needed there.
The jury is out on Tom Crean at Georgia, Jeff Capel at Pitt, Mike Anderson at St. John’s, Mark Fox at Cal and Ben Howland at Mississippi State. Howland is now in his 6th year in Starkville and was probably a tourney team last year. They won’t be this year but I don’t know the realistic expectations at Mississippi State. Of the bunch, Jeff Capel seems to have the most momentum forward.
As we can see, it’s a mixed bag hiring fired coaches. Pearl and Sampson have been wildly successful but at least in Pearl’s case, the law is closing in. As is sometimes the case, a change of scenery can do wonders like it did for Rick Barnes.
Is it the way to go? Of the guys listed, only Bruce Pearl managed to get his program to a Final 4 and as often as there’s been success, there has been failure.
With the mess at Marquette, I decided to do some research and see how a program should go about hiring a coach. Is there a right way? What works best or seems to work best. I’ve compiled the coaching changes of the last decade for this study. I think this is a good baseline for where the sport is today and I believe it’s in a much different spot than 20 years ago.
I’ve broken it down into 4 categories. The first is what I categorized as retreads/NBA hires. This category will include hires from the NBA or fired coaches. I put them together instead of separating them. These hires sometimes tend to be desperate, risky or a call back to another time.
The second is lateral hires, coaches moving from one of the Power 5 leagues or Big East and American to a job in one of these leagues. For the sake of this look, I’m including Archie Miller moving from Dayton to Indiana as Miller had established Dayton as something more than a mid-major. Some jobs are better and clear step-ups but I think they fit here.
The third category will include assistants being promoted from within or pulled from another staff. This is a pretty simple category.
The final category is the largest and has some mini categories within worth exploring. This category will be the move from a mid-major to high major (Power 5, Big East and American).
I did not include any mid-major hires. Many mid-majors are stronger programs than many majors but for the sake of this look, I limited it to the leagues outlined. This means I excluded the Mountain West and A-10 amongst others.
In this introduction, we should note the programs who have not made any changes this last decade. You’ll notice a theme and a few surprises. Four of the programs are Utah, Providence, Maryland and Oklahoma who hired their current coaches prior to the 2011 season.
The other schools in this category include Colorado, Arizona, Oregon, Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Virginia, Florida State, Clemson, Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Michigan State, Purdue, Iowa, Kentucky, Creighton, Villanova and Seton Hall.
Of the past 9 years (2020 cancelled), 6 national champions are on the list above and half the Final Four participants of the last 9 tournaments are listed above. Make of that what you will.
Part 2 will be posted in the next day or two.
Hi. I had this long piece about the Wojo era written out but realized how depressing it was, I deleted it. Instead, some observations:
1. Too many transfers have haunted this program. Yes, transfers happen everywhere but the transfers at Marquette have hurt the on the court performance because the replacements have either been worse or younger. The program refuses to get old together. In the era of one-and-done, quick fixes don’t always hold up. Very few programs can endure large scale roster turnover of top talent.
The argument that outside the Hausers, most of the Marquette transfers didn’t do much elsewhere doesn’t hold water with me. That means the staff mis-evaluated those kids.
The kids added have been a mixed bag. Matt Carlino was fine on a bad team. Katin Reinhardt was a solid piece on a tournament team. Ed Morrow never fit. Harry Froling never played. Koby McEwen has been a disappointment.
The Hauser transfer will be a thing of legend in a humorous and sad way. Stories of why have been floated since it happened, most preposterous. The fact remains, though, the transfer of Sam and Joey marked the end of the Wojo era. Whatever the reason, a potential Final 4 team and two potential all-timers took their ball and left. The coach is the CEO and right or wrong, that’s on him.
2. Defense in the Wojo era has been abysmal. Remarkably, this years team isn’t the worst but it could be trending that way. The best defensive team was the 18-19 team and they still got blown off the court by a more athletic team.
Unbelievably, his best team at turning the ball over was in 2015. Since then, no Marquette team has turned over its opponent at the national average other than 2016 and this years team is 331st after finishing 345th the year before!
What’s maddening about those numbers is, they’ve improved at holding teams shooting percentage downs but they can’t create offense through defense. Why is that a problem, you ask?
3. Speaking of offense, they’re 263rd in offensive turnover % after being 176th last year. Blame whoever you want, but this is a team with a lot of veteran ball handlers on it. That points to coaching. By the way, they were 239th in 2019. Find a ball handler. That’s 3 years running turnovers have killed them on both sides of the ball. Good coaches fix that because quite frankly, if those numbers were even average, we may not be having this conversation.
4. This years freshman class is promising. The current crop of seniors have had nice careers but were not a very productive class. That’s the harsh truth. The jury is out on Dexter Akanno and Symir Torrence but the early returns aren’t promising. They don’t have a junior class because Joey Hauser transfered. Next years class has a rising senior in Jonas Aidoo, a big man and top-100 kid and a solid 3-star but like any freshman, expectations will be tempered. DJ Carton is clearly the most talented kid on the roster but I’ll be surprised if he’s back next year which means they’ll be active in the transfer market. They need to get old together.
5. Worst of all for the program is, there is a crashing apathy setting in. Covid is covering a lot of problems off the court. The boos would be loud and attendance worse had their been fans this year. Marquette can’t afford apathy. The school is laying off people because of Covid and can’t really afford to fire Wojo. An apathetic fan base in 2021-22 will make the place a hard sell to recruits and potential coaches. The program has entered the wilderness, a place it hasn’t been since before Kevin O’Neill. The talent isn’t that bad and a quick fix is possible but seems unlikely given the real life concerns at the school. The quick decision to fire Mike Deane after one bad season was the best decision in the post-Al years. Year 8 of the Wojo era could be the worst but it might be the only choice they have. It’s bleak at Marquette and I don’t see how it gets better anytime soon
|
1
seed vs 16 seed |
|
Gonzaga
(WCC) vs Texas St(Sbelt)/ PVA&M (SWAC) |
|
Baylor
(B12) vs NC A&T(MEAC)/CleveSt(Hor) |
|
Michigan
(B1G) vs Northeastern (CAA) |
|
Villanova
(Beast) vs Bryant (NEC) |
|
2
seed vs 15 seed |
|
Ohio
State vs Grand Canyon (WAC) |
|
Alabama
(SEC) vs Siena (MAAC) |
|
Illinois
vs S. Dakota St (Summit) |
|
Missouri
vs Weber St (Bsky) |
|
3
seed vs 14 seed |
|
Houston
(AAC) vs UNC-Greensboro (SoCon) |
|
Virginia
(ACC) vs UCSB (Bwest) |
|
Texas
Tech vs Vermont(Aeast) |
|
West
Virginia vs Abilene Christian (Sland) |
|
4
seed vs 13 seed |
|
Tennessee
vs Belmont (OVC) |
|
Iowa
vs Colgate (Pat) |
|
Wisconsin
vs Liberty (Asun) |
|
Texas
vs UAB (Cusa) |
|
5
seed vs 12 seed |
|
Oklahoma
vs St. Bonaventure (A10) |
|
Florida
St vs Toledo (MAC) |
|
Florida
vs Winthrop (Bsouth) |
|
Virginia
Tech vs Stanford/North Carolina |
|
6
seed vs 11 seed |
|
USC
(P12) vs Drake/Colorado St |
|
Kansas
vs VCU |
|
Creighton
vs Oregon |
|
Purdue
vs Utah State (Mwest) |
|
7
seed vs 10 seed |
|
UCLA
vs LSU |
|
Xavier
vs Loyola (Mvalley) |
|
Colorado
vs Minnesota |
|
Clemson
vs Indiana |
|
8
seed vs 9 seed |
|
Rutgers
vs Arkansas |
|
Oklahoma
St vs San Diego St |
|
Louisville
vs BYU |
|
Connecticut
vs Saint Louis |
|
First
Four Out |
|
Boise
St |
|
Wichita
St |
|
St.
John's |
|
Michigan
State |
|
Next
Four Out |
|
Dayton |
|
Richmond |
|
SMU |
|
Maryland |
|
Also
Considered |
|
Penn
State |
|
Pittsburgh |
|
St.
Mary's |
|
Memphis |
|
Duke |
|
W.
Kentucky |
|
Seton Hall |
|
Louisiana
Tech |
|
Syracuse |
|
Providence |
|
Davidson |
