Virginia but Fun

Would you look at that? After Tony Bennett tried picking his successor and him failing miserably, Virginia went out and hired someone who likes basketball in Ryan Odom. The Cavs are 16-2, 14th in KenPom with a top 20 offense and defense. They project as a Final 4 team in Odom’s first year.

While not as slow as Bennett’s teams, Odom’s team is still 287th in tempo. But it isn’t a methodical offense. The offense is 142nd in possession length. The defense just makes you work on your possessions. They have the 3rd best effective fg% defensively. They have 2 7-footers who are amongst the best shot blockers in the nation. Frosh Johann Grunloh and Senior Ugonna Onyenso, late of K-State and Kentucky.

Offensively, they’re 35th in effective fg% and 3rd in offensive rebounding %. That helps explain the longer offensive possessions. Only being a bad FT shooting team hampers this offense.

The non-con schedule was pretty bad. The best win is at Texas and they have a neutral court loss to Butler. However, they have won at Louisville, NC State and SMU, all top-35 KenPom wins. KenPom projects them to go 15-3 in league and 26-5 overall. They get UNC at home this Saturday and only play Duke once, later in the year in Durham. Yeah, they can win the league.

This is a balanced roster and solid club. I doubt it’s a Final 4 team, despite the current numbers but a Sweet 16 run in Odom’s first season won’t be a surprise. 

Tonight's Games of Note

 Indiana at Michigan — Indiana looks to move onto the right side of the bubble after uneven recent results, while Michigan, coming off a strong stretch of wins, aims to solidify its hold on a No. 1 seed.

Seton Hall at St. John’s — Seton Hall looks to strengthen its at-large position as St. John’s, heating up lately, tries to turn momentum into a move up the seed line.

UCF at Iowa State — UCF tries to climb off the 8/9 line while Iowa State looks to stop a two-game skid and protect its spot on the top-two seed line.

Texas Tech at Baylor — Texas Tech looks to solidify a protected seed, while Baylor, desperate for a résumé boost after uneven results, fights to re-enter the at-large picture.

Vanderbilt at Arkansas — Vanderbilt aims to halt a two-game slide and stay in the 4–5 range as Arkansas looks to steady its footing in the middle of the bracket.

Tuesday Bracketology

1. Arizona  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/Maryland Eastern Shore
1. Michigan  vs  16. Vermont/Queens
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Saint Peter's
1. Duke  vs  16. Colgate
2. Purdue  vs  15. LIU
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Nebraska  vs  15. North Dakota St.
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Portland St.
3. Houston  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Illinois  vs  14. Wright St.
3. BYU  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hawaii
4. Florida  vs  13. Liberty
4. BYU  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. BYU  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. Florida Atlantic
5. Virginia  vs  12. High Point
5. Alabama  vs  12. Yale
5. St. John's  vs  12. Murray St.
6. Arkansas  vs  11. George Mason
6. North Carolina  vs  11. New Mexico/Texas
6. Louisville  vs  11. Ohio St./San Diego St.
6. Saint Louis  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. SMU  vs  10. Auburn
7. Kentucky  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Iowa  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Wisconsin  vs  10. Georgia
8. Tennessee  vs  9. Seton Hall
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. USC
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. Villanova
8. Utah St.  vs  9. UCF

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - Baylor

First Four Out - LSU

First Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - Santa Clara

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - UCLA

Also Considered - Missouri

Also Considered - Butler

January Contenders

I’ll cheat and copy Brian’s tiers.

Tier 1 - Definitely Can Win It All

Arizona - Yes. Wildly good. 4th best offense, 6th best defense. Will get tested weekly in the Big XIIIIII. Would be my pick today.

Iowa State - I was wrong about the offense. 4th best 3-point shooting team in the nation lead by Milan Momcilovic. 71.6 effective fg%, 54% from 3. Bad FT shooting team but the rest of the offense is best it’s been in TJO era. Not good today, though.  Sloppy game at Cincinnati.

Michigan - Defense has come back to earth last two weeks. UW-Madison dragged the bigs out and outshot them. We’ll see how they adjust as I’m sure others will copy that game plan. Not sure this is the best team in the Big 18. Still very good.

Houston - Don’t trust the offense. Mediocre shooting team. Final 4 good, don’t believe they can win it all.

UConn - Offense isn’t good enough and the league won’t test them enough.

Tier 2 - Need to see more, flawed

Duke - Final 4 good. Probably doesn’t shoot the 3 well enough.

Gonzaga - Solid in all phases except FT shooting. Will go through the motions until the tourney. I know FT shooting in the advanced stat era is a shoulder shrug of concerns but they’ll play in a lot of blowouts until the tourney. That FT concern will be an issue in a close tourney game.

Tier 3 - Underrated?  Maybe?

Purdue - Absolutely good enough offensively, defense is good but not great. Can Daniel Jacobsen stay on the court and be a menace inside? Still developing. If he takes a step, could help make defense better.

Illinois - See Purdue. Great offense. Good but not great defense. Game at Purdue next week should be fun.

Vanderbilt - Top 15 efficient offense and defense. 15th and 21st entering at effective fg% on offense and defense. Is it sustainable? Texas beat them 80-64 and Florida has 86 through 35 minutes. Whatever the case, Mark Byington is establishing himself as hot commodity.

Tier 4 - Confused

Nebraska - 15th in KenPom and undefeated on 1-17 from a major conference should confuse you. 3 one possession wins in league play. Some luck. League schedule is pretty manageable.

BYU - Final 4 good, not good enough as of today to win it all.

Florida - Look good at Vandy. Not good enough shooting team. 152nd offensive effective fg%, 353rd in 3-point shooting. 37.5% from 3 today is 10% higher than year average.

Texas Tech - Not good enough defensively. 

Tier 5 - Frauds

Michigan State - 58th offensively in KenPom. Not good enough at all. Best rebounding team in America, though. 

North Carolina - Projected to go 10-8 in league play. Not a chance they’re a contender for anything other than a bid.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/North Carolina Central

1. Iowa St.  vs  16. Vermont/Dartmouth

1. Connecticut  vs  16. Saint Peter's

1. Michigan  vs  16. Colgate

2. Duke  vs  15. LIU

2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Tennessee Martin

2. Purdue  vs  15. Austin Peay

2. Nebraska  vs  15. Wright St.

3. BYU  vs  14. Portland St.

3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy

3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. St. Thomas

3. Florida  vs  14. East Tennessee St.

4. Illinois  vs  13. Hawaii

4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Liberty

4. Florida  vs  13. Utah Valley

4. Florida  vs  13. UNC Wilmington

5. Kansas  vs  12. McNeese St.

5. Virginia  vs  12. High Point

5. Arkansas  vs  12. Tulsa

5. North Carolina  vs  12. Murray St.

6. Utah St.  vs  11. Texas

6. Louisville  vs  11. Texas A&M/Indiana

6. Clemson  vs  11. Auburn/Ohio St.

6. SMU  vs  11. Miami OH

7. St. John's  vs  10. Georgia

7. Tennessee  vs  10. N.C. State

7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCLA

7. USC  vs  10. New Mexico

8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Kentucky

8. Saint Louis  vs  9. Seton Hall

8. Iowa  vs  9. Wisconsin

8. UCF  vs  9. Villanova

First Four Out - George Mason

First Four Out - Baylor

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - LSU

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Missouri

Also Considered - Dayton

Also Considered - Creighton

January Contenders

 

With about 2 months left before Selection Sunday now is a good time to Tier out the top 16 teams in my bracket and put them in buckets.  In my estimation this is the strongest top 10-15 teams we’ve seen in awhile and I can’t argue with prognosticators who think there are at least 10 teams that can win it all.  I don’t believe the group is that large but I’m going to see where I end up as I type this out.
 
Tier 1 – Definitely can win it all this year
Arizona – still undefeated
Iowa State – loss to Kansas last night changes nothing
Michigan – losing to Wisconsin might give them motivation
Houston – I might have them as my favorite right now
Connecticut – I debated putting them in Tier 2 but now that they are at full strength they look dominant
 
Tier 2 – Need to see more; they have a flaw
Duke – contender but they need a consistent third scorer and to stop digging an early hole
Gonzaga – can probably never be a Tier 1 team until they actually win it all
 
Tier 3 – I *think* they are underrated; I need to dig deeper
Purdue – have the talent and guard play.  Only loss is to Iowa State
Illinois – I said they were overrated early in the season.  All losses are to top 20 teams
Vanderbilt – Look solid but they are Vanderbilt
 
Tier 4 – I’m confused; are these teams really contenders?
Nebraska – undefeated and the best story in college but they are Nebraska
BYU – great metrics but only played 1 team in the top 25…and lost
Florida – Jekyll and Hyde all year.  On the upswing but can you trust the guards?
Texas Tech – I want them to be in a higher Tier but outside of Toppin and Anderson…
 
Tier 5 – Frauds
Michigan State – Every year I hear how great they are, but they have 1 Final Four in the last 10 years
North Carolina – I can’t believe I’m typing this, but they are going to really miss Elliot Cadeau.
 
Kurly – What do you got for contenders?

Tuesday Bracketology

1. Arizona  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/North Carolina Central
1. Iowa St.  vs  16. Vermont/Dartmouth
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Michigan  vs  16. Navy
2. Duke  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Quinnipiac
2. Purdue  vs  15. Austin Peay
2. Vanderbilt  vs  15. Wright St.
3. BYU  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Nebraska  vs  14. St. Thomas
3. Texas Tech  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
4. Illinois  vs  13. Hawaii
4. Louisville  vs  13. Liberty
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hofstra
5. North Carolina  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Alabama  vs  12. High Point
5. Virginia  vs  12. Tulsa
5. Kansas  vs  12. Murray St.
6. Utah St.  vs  11. New Mexico
6. Arkansas  vs  11. UCLA/LSU
6. Clemson  vs  11. Texas A&M/Miami OH
6. SMU  vs  11. Ohio St.
7. St. John's  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Tennessee  vs  10. Indiana
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. Kentucky
7. USC  vs  10. Georgia
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Wisconsin
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. Seton Hall
8. Iowa  vs  9. UCF
8. Auburn  vs  9. Villanova

First Four Out - Texas

First Four Out - Baylor

First Four Out - George Mason

First Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Butler

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - San Diego St.

Also Considered - Oklahoma

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Creighton