Let’s take a look at how the conferences are shaping up as we head into the new year.
ACC: The non-con wasn’t particularly kind to the ACC. It’s basically Duke and everyone else. Did you know, Duke has the nation’s number one KenPom defense? They’re the lone national title contender in the league. As of now, no other team projects as a second weekend team. Pitt is the 2nd best team by KenPom. UNC, Clemson and SMU are your only other top-40 KenPom teams. UNC needs to be very good in conference to get a bid. The win over UCLA helps but a mediocre ACC record won’t be enough. League is mediocre at best.
Big East: Speaking of mediocre, the Big East waves hello. They have 3 top-15 KenPom teams and then there is Creighton at 51. Right now, this a 3-bid league. The good news? Marquette is a legit title contender (top-20 offenses and defenses). St. John’s is a legit final 4 contender. UConn got embarrassed in Hawaii but has bounced back. Can they fix their leaky defense? Still a very good offense, if they can figure that side of the ball out, they can still be dangerous in March. As for the rest of the league, a lot of programs are going to have to ask themselves what they want to be at the end of the season.
Big Ten: The Terrapins are 11 in KenPom with UCLA 17 and Michigan State 16. Oregon is 14. 9 more schools are in the top-50. There doesn’t appear to be a national title contender in the group but Michigan State, Oregon and Maryland can all be claimed as legit Final 4 teams. I have serious doubts about UCLA’s offense. The league title winner could be anyone. The schedule is a mess because there are 18 teams. Will the best team win it? I have my doubts. Can they get 12 bids? Possibly.
Big XII: In a bid to chase football dollars, the league may have turned over its yearly claim as best league but it’s still pretty damn good. Houston and Iowa State have top-20 offenses and defenses. Kansas has a top-20 offense and are 26th in defense. Texas Tech is 14 overall in KenPom and Baylor 18. The top-5 are really good and Cincinnati entered league play 10-1. 8-9 teams will make the tournament. Unlike the Big Ten, I don’t think the winner of this league will possibly be a meh team. Arizona will need to play well in the league portion of their schedule. One of college basketball’s biggest disappointments this year.
SEC: The best league in the nation this year and it ain’t close. They have a prohibitive national title favorite in Auburn. Duke is second in KenPom and closer to number 6 Gonzaga than Auburn. Tennessee and Florida are top-20 offenses and defenses. Alabama, Mississippi State and Texas A&M are top-20 overall KenPom teams. The bottom team is South Carolina at 64. If Auburn comes out of this league with only 1-2 losses, I have a hard time believing they don’t cut the nets down in April.
The Rest: Gonzaga continues to pace “the rest”. They’re a legit Final 4 contender once again. Memphis and Dayton have the best wins outside Gonzaga and should win their leagues but I’m not sure those teams are second weekend teams. Others to watch are St. Mary’s, VCU, Utah St., Nevada, Boise State and maybe Liberty.
Adjusted Final 4 are Auburn, Duke, Houston and Gonzaga
