Elite 8 Sunday

Midwest Region: 1. Purdue vs. 2. Tennessee

Brian and I were exchanging texts on Friday night where I said I think we’re simply steamrolling to a Purdue-UConn final. Tennessee’s 18-0 run against Creighton gave me pause and then they almost blew it.

The Pick: Purdue 74 Tennessee 69

South Region: 4. Duke vs. 11. NC State

We’ve now arrived at the stage where NC State is no longer cute but annoying. I get it, the world hates Duke, but do we want Purdue-NC State? I think not.

The Pick: Duke 78 NC State 73

Elite 8 Saturday

East: 1. UConn vs. 3. Illinois

UConn played their C game for a half against SDSU and then won by 30. Illinois jumped Iowa State and held on, but never really felt threatened, answering each Iowa State bucket that made it a one possession game. Impressive stuff in its own right.

Ultimately, I simply think UConn is better. Illinois can certainly shoot themselves to an upset but I have my doubts they get enough stops to fend off UConn like they did the Clones.

The Pick: UConn 82 Illinois 77

West: 4. Alabama vs. 6. Clemson

Of all the permeations you could get from the top-8 teams of this region, this one somehow feels the least likely. Neither marched in triumphantly to March.

Both got some help in the Sweet 16. UNC went ice cold in the second half from deep and they had looks. Arizona had plenty of good looks, too. Clemson didn’t do anything special to them. If I’m a UNC or Arizona fan today, I’m still confused how we lost.

Between the 2, Clemson’s win felt flukier. Banked 3’s, bail out hook shots and other makes at the shot clock. They also gave up a lot of early offensive rebounds against Zona. Zona missed a lot of second and third chances. Not sure Clemson can do that against Bama who also cleans the offensive glass. Also, I’m still bitter about the Tigers not beating the Gooophers in ‘97.

The Pick: Alabama 91 Clemson 78

Sweet 16 Midwest Preview

1. Purdue vs. 5. Gonzaga 

Another Sweet 16 for the Zags. Say what you will about them, but that is impressive in this day and age to continually be in the Sweet 16. Great teams get upset on opening weekend all the time. Great programs have down years all the time. Should probably appreciate the Zags.

As for the game, I want to find a reason to pick the Zags. Purdue can be dicey with the ball but Gonzaga typically doesn’t turn opponents over. The Zags don’t put teams on the line but Purdue is a different creature from anything any team has seen in that regard.

To win this game, the Zags need to be bucket getters. I’d also let Edey get his and pressure the Purdue guards. You’re probably not stopping Edey but if you can make the guys around him minuses, you have a chance. I don’t think the Zags are that team.

The Pick: Purdue 81 Gonzaga 79

2. Tennessee vs. 3. Creighton

The BlueJays return to the Sweet 16 and bring with them another top-25 defense predicated on not fouling and forcing bad shots. Worst team when it comes to forcing turnovers in the nation. Why do I think this matters? Tennessee’s offense is good, but not great, capable of clunkers.

Tennessee’s defense is 3rd in KenPom based largely on the nations 3rd best defensive effective fg%. They will foul a bit and good, not great at the other 2 4 Factors. Creighton rarely gets to the line, though, and is a weak offensive rebounding team, so that’s a wash.

Creighton’s offense is 11th in KenPom with the 3rd best offensive effective fg%. Another clash in numbers in the night games. This could be a classic.

The Pick: Creighton 66 Tennessee 65

Sweet 16 South Preview

2. Marquette vs. 11. NC State

Supposedly, they played for a title in 1974. Al McGuire got ejected before half. Imagine that today. 

NC State rides a 7-game winning streak into this matchup and are an interesting team. Not great in anything other than not turning it over and not bad in anything. They’re an average team who has gotten hot or lucky, depending on how you look at it, at the right time.

Marquette is a poor rebounding team but NC State is average on the glass. Marquette thrives on turnovers but NC State doesn’t turn it over. Can Marquette increase NC State turnovers? 

The difference for me is Marquette’s 55.5% effective offensive FG%. That’s an elite number and even if not turning NC State over, the offense should generate plenty of good looks. Plus, they’ll have the best player on the floor.

The Pick: Marquette 75 NC State 69

1. Houston vs. 4. Duke

Easily the best matchup of the 8 games, we have the KenPom number 2, Houston, against the KenPom number 6, Duke.

Houston likes to grind you down and play slow, but Duke isn’t exactly the showtime Lakers. They’re 245th in pace. Houston is an elite offensive rebounding team. Duke is a solid defensive rebounding team. If they can limit Houston’s second chance opportunities, that’ll be a great sign for Duke.

Duke shoots 38% from 3, 13th best in the nation. Opponents shoot 30% from 3 against Houston, 10th best in the nation. Duke has the 18th best effective offensive fg%, Houston is 2nd on the defensive side. Duke is 23rd in offensive turnover %, Houston is 3rd in defensive turnover %. 

The game will come down to whether Duke is making shots and/or limiting second chance opportunities for Houston. If they turn it over and lose on the glass, winning will be hard. Tough game to predict.

The Pick: Duke 60 Houston 59

Sweet 16 East Preview

1. UConn vs. 5. San Diego State

UConn has won 8 straight tournament games by double digits. San Diego State doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to beat them. UConn’s spurtability will let them pull away and win comfortably.

The Pick: UConn 70 San Diego State 60

2. Iowa State vs. 3. Illinois

Contrasting teams meetup in this fascinating game. Iowa State is 49th and 1st in effective offensive and defensive efficiency. The Illini are 1st and 92nd in those categories.

Looking at the 4 Factors, Illinois is actually solid across the board defensively except turning teams over. They’re 360th of 362 teams in turning the opponent over (Interestingly, Creighton is the worst). Iowa State typically doesn’t turn it over. There isn’t anything they do bad on offense, they’re just not excellent in any category. I think these two seemingly weaknesses of both teams might not matter.

The Pick: Illinois 71 Iowa State 69

Sweet 16 West Preview

2. Arizona vs. 6. Clemson:

In what is a bit of a surprise matchup, Clemson meets Arizona in the early tip Thursday. The Wildcats like to play fast, Clemson likes to slow it down. A matchup of clashing styles.

If we look at Arizona’s 4 Factors, we don’t find anything they do bad. Clemson on the other hand is a bad offensive rebounding team and one of the worst at turning teams over. Zona is 7th in the nation in defensive rebounding %.

I’d like to find a reason to pick Clemson in an upset but I think this is a game Zona handles with relative ease.

The Pick: Arizona 82 Clemson 69

4. Alabama vs. 1. UNC

This being a Sweet 16 game at the start of the year wouldn’t have been a huge surprise. What the teams play like might be.

As we know, Bama is a bad defensive team. They are the best offense in the nation, however. That is mitigated by the Heels 6th rated defense. The one thing that Carolina doesn’t do is, turn teams over and that’s a minor blemish on Bama’s offensive scorecard. 

Bama is 26th in offensive rebounding %. Carolina is 6th in defensive rebounding %. The chaos of Bama’s offense can be negated a bit by good defensive rebounding by the Heels.

Pace will electric in this game. Carolina won’t be fazed by Bama’s up-and-down style. If it’s a game that becomes a matchup of making shots, Bama is 10th in offensive effective fg% and UNC is 119th. They counter with the nation’s 15th best effective defenisve fg%. As they say, something has to give. 

The Pick: UNC 101 Alabama 96

Sweet 16 Breakdown

Let’s rank out the Sweet 16 by KenPom. It’s a remarkably chalky Sweet 16. In theory, we should get better games, but we shall see.

1. UConn, 1st KP (1-seed East)

2. Houston, 2nd KP (1-seed South)

3. Purdue, 3rd KP (1-seed MW)

4. Arizona, 5th KP (2-seed West)

5. Duke, 6th KP (4-seed South)

6. Iowa State, 7th KP (2-seed East)

7. Tennessee, 8th KP (2-seed MW)

8. UNC, 9th KP (1-seed West)

9. Illinois, 10th KP (3-seed East)

10. Creighton, 11th KP (3-seed MW)

11. Gonzaga, 12th KP (5-seed MW)

12. Marquette, 13th KP (2-seed South)

13. Alabama, 14th KP (4-seed West)

14. San Diego State, 17th KP (5-seed East)

15. Clemson, 23rd KP (6-seed West)

16. NC State, 53rd KP (11-seed South)

Notes:

East is the best region in the bracket. 3 top-10 and SDSU is 17. SDSU is the “underdog” in this group and is 17 in KenPom. Legit Sweet 16 team. Though it is the best region, I have a hard time envisioning any of these teams beating UConn.

Midwest is the next toughest bracket left.  3-top 10 and the Zags at 12 in KenPom. Purdue coasted in rounds 1 and 2. In this regional, they will earn a bid should they make it through. Bet all these games are close.

West and South are weaker with it being a coin flip which is weakest but I’ll say NC State makes the South the weakest. In the west, your top 2-seeds should be solid favorites. Seems like a showdown is brewing between UNC and Zona.

The South pits its 2-best remaining teams against one another in Duke and Houston. Duke rolled to the Sweet 16, Houston survived. Heckuva matchup on Friday. Other than  history long, long ago, NC State and Marquette is the weakest matchup. NC State has won 7 straight and have a history of doing stuff that surprises everyone. Either would be an underdog on Sunday.