We need to start in the Missouri Valley where the top 3 seeds all lost leaving 8 seeded Drake, 4 Bradely, 7 Valpo, and 6 Missouri State left. One of these teams is getting a bid tomorrow while Northern Iowa is left hoping for an at large. Right now I have them in as my last 4 but I can see them falling out by next Sunday.
Our first auto-bids go out today as both the Mountain West and Ohio Valley have their championships.
In the OVC it's Belmont vs Murray State, where the winner gets a 13/14 seed. The should give a 4 seed a run but neither team is as good as they used to be.
In the mountain west Utah State gets one last chance at San Diego State. I think Utah St can survive a close loss but a blow out makes them a strange case for an at-large. Best to just win, get the auto-bid and avoid the play in games.
For the rest of the teams its the end of the regular season; one more chance to get a road win, um looking at you Rutgers!, or improve their resume one way or another.
Oh, and Duke plays UNC. I hear that's a big game or something.
Saturday, March 7, 2020
Friday, March 6, 2020
Today
I forgot to mention Tulsa moves into the field with the AAC’s
auto bid since Houston lost. They will be taking the place of Wichita St
for now. Tulsa looks to be a 13 seed; NCSOS is north of 300!
As for tonight the biggest game on tap is Wake Forest vs
North Carolina State. NC State is out as of this writing but I will be
doing a comparison of them and Stanford after the game tonight. A win
probably gets them in, perhaps ahead of more than Stanford.
Utah State plays Wyoming and that would be a bad loss.
I think they are a lock with a win as long as they don’t get blown out against
San Diego St.
The last bubble game is Richmond at Duquesne. Win and
stay in the conversation is the path for the Spiders.
Last but not least we have a bunch of conference tournaments
going on. No 1 seed has been upset yet but Northern Iowa is currently
losing to Drake.
Last Night
My last two teams in, Wichita State and Stanford both lost
last night. Wichita State is definitely out
at this point. I’m going to look at
Stanford closer and see what to do with them.
Their NCSOS is over 200 and that is usually a red flag.
Arizona State also lost and their computer numbers aren’t
great. They remain in but fall a seed.
Utah State survived a scare and remain in. I think they need today’s game over Wyoming
only as it would be a bad loss for them.
The SoCon kicks off their conference tournament today and
the A-Sun is down to 1.Liberty vs 3. Lipscomb.
Bid come out starting tomorrow.
Thursday, March 5, 2020
Sun Belt and Summit
Sun Belt
The Sun Belt begins its conference tournament this Saturday. They play the first three rounds at campus sites on alternate nights and then play in New Orleans next weekend to decide the champion.
Little Rock won the league title, finishing 15-5 and 21-10 overall. Texas State and South Alabama finished in a tie for second. Texas State is 96th in KenPom while Little Rock is 129th and South Alabama is 160th. To make things more confusing, Georgia State is 111th in KenPom and finished in a tie for 4th with Georgia Southern. UT-Arlington finished 14-17 (10-10) and is 123rd in KenPom.
The Pick: Texas State
Summit
The Summit League begins conference tournament this Saturday as well. All of the games will be in gorgeous Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
South Dakota State and North Dakota State tied for the regular season title. They split their regular season matchups, with NDSU winning at home on Saturday in overtime. SDSU is 112 in KenPom and NDSU is 121st.
South Dakota finished third and is 171st in KenPom. Oral Roberts finished in a tie for 4th and is 136th in KenPom. No other team is in the top 200 of KenPom.
The Pick: South Dakota State is the best team but we’ve seen some weirdness in this tournament through the last few years. I’ll stick with South Dakota State
The Sun Belt begins its conference tournament this Saturday. They play the first three rounds at campus sites on alternate nights and then play in New Orleans next weekend to decide the champion.
Little Rock won the league title, finishing 15-5 and 21-10 overall. Texas State and South Alabama finished in a tie for second. Texas State is 96th in KenPom while Little Rock is 129th and South Alabama is 160th. To make things more confusing, Georgia State is 111th in KenPom and finished in a tie for 4th with Georgia Southern. UT-Arlington finished 14-17 (10-10) and is 123rd in KenPom.
The Pick: Texas State
Summit
The Summit League begins conference tournament this Saturday as well. All of the games will be in gorgeous Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
South Dakota State and North Dakota State tied for the regular season title. They split their regular season matchups, with NDSU winning at home on Saturday in overtime. SDSU is 112 in KenPom and NDSU is 121st.
South Dakota finished third and is 171st in KenPom. Oral Roberts finished in a tie for 4th and is 136th in KenPom. No other team is in the top 200 of KenPom.
The Pick: South Dakota State is the best team but we’ve seen some weirdness in this tournament through the last few years. I’ll stick with South Dakota State
Tonight's Games
Games have already started today as the Big South’s 2 seed,
Winthrop wins early. Later today the
West Coast and the Missouri alley kick off their tournaments as well as a
handful of 2nd round games in other tournaments.
The bubble is pretty quiet today with the exception of a
game in the AAC and out west.
Wichita State at Memphis – Memphis is barely holding on and
a win keeps them in the conversation.
Wichita is currently our 2 last team in so a loss here probably drops
them out of the bracket
New Mexico at Utah State – Utah State is the fifth in at this
point, just out of the play in games.
This would be a bad loss and potentially could drop the all the way out
of the bracket.
Washington at Arizona State – I have the Sun Devils as a 9
seed which seems safe but their computer numbers are average at this point
(NET-49, KenPom – 58). A loss drops
those number 3-4 spots and I’m not comfortable with a 60+ KP number.
Thursday Bracketology
|
1
seed vs 16 seed
|
|
Kansas
(B12) vs R.Morris(NEC)/Siena(MAAC)
|
|
Gonzaga
(WCC) vs NCCU(MEAC)/PV A&M(SWAC)
|
|
Baylor
vs Winthrop (Bsouth)
|
|
SanDiegoSt
(Mwest) vs Montana (Bsky)
|
|
2
seed vs 15 seed
|
|
Dayton
(A10) vs N.Dakota St(Summt)
|
|
Florida
St (ACC) vs Colgate (Patriot)
|
|
Villanova
vs UALR (Sbelt)
|
|
Seton
Hall (Beast) vs Wright St (Horizon)
|
|
3
seed vs 14 seed
|
|
Kentucky
(SEC) vs Belmont (OVC)
|
|
Maryland
(B1G) vs Hofsta (Col)
|
|
Duke
vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
|
|
Louisville
vs New Mexico St (WAC)
|
|
4
seed vs 13 seed
|
|
Michigan
St vs North Texas (Cusa)
|
|
Creighton
vs Vermont (Aeast)
|
|
Oregon
vs SFA (Sland)
|
|
Ohio
State vs Akron (MAC)
|
|
5
seed vs 12 seed
|
|
BYU
vs Liberty (Asun)
|
|
Michigan
vs Yale (Ivy)
|
|
Penn
St vs UCLA (P12)
|
|
Auburn
vs Stanford/Wichita St
|
|
6
seed vs 11 seed
|
|
Butler
vs N. Iowa (Mvalley)
|
|
Iowa
vs ETSU (SoCon)
|
|
Colorado
vs Xavier/Oklahoma
|
|
Wisconsin
vs Utah State
|
|
7
seed vs 10 seed
|
|
Arizona
vs Indiana
|
|
West
Virginia vs USC
|
|
Houston
(AAC) vs Texas Tech
|
|
Providence
vs Cincinnati
|
|
8
seed vs 9 seed
|
|
St.Mary's
vs Florida
|
|
Marquette
vs Rutgers
|
|
Illinois
vs Virginia
|
|
LSU
vs Arizona State
|
|
First
Four Out
|
|
NC
State
|
|
Richmond
|
|
Purdue
|
|
Texas
|
|
Next
Four Out
|
|
Arkansas
|
|
South
Carolina
|
|
Rhode
Island
|
|
Memphis
|
|
Also
Considered
|
|
Mississippi
State
|
|
Alabama
|
|
Clemson
|
|
Notre
Dame
|
|
Syracuse
|
American East and CAA
American East
All games will be played on campuses of the higher seeds. Vermont is the prohibitive favorite having gone 14-2 in the league and winning it by 4 games. They finished the year 24-7 and have a win over St. John’s on their resume. Their only 2 losses in Conference this year were at home to UMBC and Stony Brook. Vermont is 66th in KenPom and will be a trendy pick as a bracket buster.
The aforementioned Stony Brook is the only other team in the league in the top 200 of KenPom at 183. The tournament begins Saturday and stretches over the next week with the title game on Saturday.
The Pick: Vermont
CAA
The CAA begins tournament play on Saturday from Washington D.C. and concludes Tuesday night. Hofstra won the regular season title by a game over William & Mary. Hofstra is 119th in KenPom which is by and far the best of the league. They have a win at UCLA before UCLA righted the ship and have won 9 of 10.
William & Mary finishes 2nd based on a end of season 5-game winning streak. They’re 192nd in KenPom. They split the regular season matchups with Hofstra. Both teams won those respective games on the road. As you probably know, the Tribe have never made the NCAA Tournament.
The rest of the contenders are Towson, 149th in KenPom and 3rd place finishers in the league, Charleston and Delaware who tied for 4th and 161st and 182nd in KenPom and Northeastern who went 9-9 in league but is 143rd in KenPom.
This tournament could yield some chaos as the middle is pretty tightly grouped. The bottom half is wretched but the semi-finals should be competitive.
The Pick: Hofstra
All games will be played on campuses of the higher seeds. Vermont is the prohibitive favorite having gone 14-2 in the league and winning it by 4 games. They finished the year 24-7 and have a win over St. John’s on their resume. Their only 2 losses in Conference this year were at home to UMBC and Stony Brook. Vermont is 66th in KenPom and will be a trendy pick as a bracket buster.
The aforementioned Stony Brook is the only other team in the league in the top 200 of KenPom at 183. The tournament begins Saturday and stretches over the next week with the title game on Saturday.
The Pick: Vermont
CAA
The CAA begins tournament play on Saturday from Washington D.C. and concludes Tuesday night. Hofstra won the regular season title by a game over William & Mary. Hofstra is 119th in KenPom which is by and far the best of the league. They have a win at UCLA before UCLA righted the ship and have won 9 of 10.
William & Mary finishes 2nd based on a end of season 5-game winning streak. They’re 192nd in KenPom. They split the regular season matchups with Hofstra. Both teams won those respective games on the road. As you probably know, the Tribe have never made the NCAA Tournament.
The rest of the contenders are Towson, 149th in KenPom and 3rd place finishers in the league, Charleston and Delaware who tied for 4th and 161st and 182nd in KenPom and Northeastern who went 9-9 in league but is 143rd in KenPom.
This tournament could yield some chaos as the middle is pretty tightly grouped. The bottom half is wretched but the semi-finals should be competitive.
The Pick: Hofstra
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