Bid Stealers Still Alive

Mountain West:

San Diego State over Utah State

The Aggies are solidly in as an 8/9 right now.  San Diego State would steal a bid with a win

MAC

Bowling Green over Buffalo

Buffalo is currently a 6 seed.  They are 7-2 in Q1/Q2 games and project as a top 25 team in all the computer numbers

Mountain West:

Oregon over Washington

I’m actually now tracking Oregon off on the side but I think they need the auto-bid.  Some experts don’t have Washington in for sure but 10-6 against Q1/Q2, even if most of that is Q2 is enough for me.

American

Memphis over Houston or Wichita State over Cincinnati

There could be a bid stealer today or tomorrow depending on if there is one or two upsets.  Memphis was the hot upset pick but Wichita has been riding hot for the past 6 weeks

Bubble Team Who Aren’t Safe.  In Order of most likely to drop out

Belmont – pro: solid NCSOS, 4-3 against Q1/Q2. Con: Small schools always get screwed

TCU – pro: 22 games against Q1/Q2. Con: only won 9 of them

St. John’s – pro: 10-10 against Q1/Q2.; started hot  Con: Ended poorly and got crushed by Marquette.  NCSOS of 216

Ohio State – pro: Like TCU, 22 games against Q1/Q2. Con: Like TCU, only won 9 of them

Arizona State – pro: 11-6 against Q1/Q2; NCSOS of 46 Con: 6-2 against Q4

Mid-Saturday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Virgina vs F.Dickenson(NEC)/NCCU(MEAC)

Gonzaga (WCC) vs N.Dakota St (Summit)/Iona(MAAC)

Duke (ACC) vs Prairie View (SWAC)

Kentucky (SEC) vs Gardner Webb(Bsouth)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Michigan St(B1G) vs A.Christian (Sland)

Tennessee vs Bradley (Mvalley)

North Carolina vs N.Kentucky (Hor)

Michigan vs Colgate (Patriot)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Houston (AAC) vs Harvard (Ivy)

Florida St. vs Georgia St (Sbelt)

Kansas(B12) vs Montana (Bsky)

Purdue vs Old Dominion (Cusa)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Texas Tech vs Northeastern (CAA)

Wisconsin vs Vermont (Aeast)

LSU vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)

Kansas St vs Liberty (Asun)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Virgina Tech vs Davidson (A10)

Auburn vs N.Mexico St (WAC)

Villanova (Beast) vs Murray State (OVC)

Marquette vs Belmont/TCU

6 seed vs 11 seed

Buffalo (MAC) vs St. Mary's (WCC)

Maryland vs Ohio St/St. John's

Iowa St. vs Arizona State

Mississippi St. vs Florida

7 seed vs 10 seed

Nevada vs Temple

Wofford(SoCon) vs UCF

Cincinnati vs Oklahoma

Louisville vs Iowa

8 seed vs 9 seed

Baylor vs Syracuse

Washington (P12) vs Mississippi

Seton Hall vs VCU

Minnesota vs Utah State (Mwest)

First Four Out

North Carolina State

UNG-Greensboro

Alabama

Furman

Next Four Out

Texas

Lipscomb

Clemson

Indiana

Also Considered

Creighton

Early Friday Update

Florida locks in a bid with an upset over LSU.  When I look at LSU I  now see Arizona last year.  Too much turmoil to advance in the NCAA Tournament.  They will be a ripe 3/4 seed

The bubble loses one spot as VCU lost in the A-10 Quarter Finals.  They have a good enough resume for an at-large and suddenly the A-10 is a two bid league.  I've been tracking Dayton and Davidson in the Also Considered category.  I picked Davidson to win the auto-bid in the Send It In Jerome pool so I'll add them in as a 12/13 in tomorrow's bracket.

Friday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Virginia (ACC) vs S.Houston(Sland)/NorfolkSt(MEAC)

Gonzaga vs F.Dickenson(NEC)/Iona(MAAC)

North Carolina vs N.Dakota St (Summit)

Kentucky vs Prairie View (SWAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Duke vs Gardner Webb(Bsouth)

Michigan St(B1G) vs Bradley (Mvalley)

Tennessee vs N.Kentucky (Hor)

Michigan vs Colgate (Patriot)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Houston (AAC) vs Harvard (Ivy)

LSU (SEC) vs Georgia St (Sbelt)

Purdue vs Montana (Bsky)

Florida St. vs Old Dominion (Cusa)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Texas Tech vs Northeastern (CAA)

Kansas vs Vermont (Aeast)

Wisconsin vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)

Kansas St(B12) vs Liberty (Asun)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Nevada (Mwest) vs N.Mexico St (WAC)

Virgina Tech vs Murray State (OVC)

Marquette vs Alabama/Belmont

Mississippi St. vs Florida/TCU

6 seed vs 11 seed

Buffalo (MAC) vs Ohio St.

Auburn vs St. John's

Maryland vs St. Mary's (WCC)

Villanova (Beast) vs Arizona State

7 seed vs 10 seed

Iowa St. vs Temple

Wofford (SoCon) vs Minnesota

Cincinnati vs Oklahoma

Louisville vs Seton Hall

8 seed vs 9 seed

VCU (A10) vs Baylor

Utah State vs Syracuse

Iowa vs Mississippi

UCF vs Washington (P12)

First Four Out

North Carolina State

UNG-Greensboro

Furman

Texas

Next Four Out

Lipscomb

Clemson

Xavier

Indiana

Also Considered

Creighton

Davidson

Dayton

Wednesday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Virginia (ACC) vs S.Houston(Sland)/NorfolkSt(MEAC)

Gonzaga vs F.Dickenson(NEC)/Iona(MAAC)

North Carolina vs N.Dakota St (Summit)

Kentucky vs Prairie View (SWAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Duke vs Gardner Webb(Bsouth)

Michigan St(B1G) vs Bradley (Mvalley)

Tennessee vs N.Kentucky (Hor)

Michigan vs Colgate (Patriot)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Texas Tech(B12) vs Harvard (Ivy)

Houston (AAC) vs Georgia St (Sbelt)

LSU (SEC) vs Montana (Bsky)

Purdue vs Old Dominion (Cusa)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Florida St. vs Northeastern (CAA)

Kansas vs Vermont (Aeast)

Wisconsin vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)

Kansas State vs Liberty (Asun)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Nevada (Mwest) vs N.Mexico St (WAC)

Virgina Tech vs Murray State (OVC)

Maryland vs Clemson/Belmont

Mississippi St. vs Florida/Texas

6 seed vs 11 seed

Buffalo (MAC) vs Ohio St.

Auburn vs Minnesota

Marquette vs St. Mary's (WCC)

Villanova (Beast) vs Arizona State

7 seed vs 10 seed

Iowa St. vs Temple

Wofford (SoCon) vs St. John's

Cincinnati vs Seton Hall

Louisville vs Oklahoma

8 seed vs 9 seed

VCU (A10) vs Baylor

Utah State vs Syracuse

Washington (P12) vs UCF

Mississippi vs Iowa

First Four Out

Alabama

Creighton

North Carolina State

Indiana

Next Four Out

TCU

Furman

Lipscomb

UNG-Greensboro

Also Considered

Georgetown

Davidson

Xavier

Dayton

The AAC

The AAC has a tournament, too. It begins Thursday in Memphis. Great barbecue and music.  Have fun, UConn fans.

The 1-seed is Houston, who went 16-2 in league and 29-2 overall. They’re 13th in KenPom. They’re Final 4 good and borderline good enough to cut down the nets. Kelvin Sampson can win ball games. The 2-seed is craptacular Cincinnati and their leprechaun coach, Mick Cronin. If you like rock fights, they’re your team.

UCF and Temple finished 13-5 and should be comfortably in. It’s Fran Dunphy’s last year at Temple. That sort of seems impossible since I feel like John Chaney just retired. Memphis and Wichita State finishes over .500 in conference but aren’t bubble teams. They will be potential bid thieves.

South Florida has it rolling for awhile but lost 4 of their last 5 to kill any chance they may have had.

The Pick: Houston - By the numbers, they’re way ahead of the next two teams in the league who are well ahead of the next two teams behind them. Houston is a Final 4 contender and the road starts in Memphis

Bracket Thoughts

I began to pour over the numbers last night and three things came clear to me. 

1.      Furman probably doesn’t have a chance at an at-large.  Their main computer numbers (NET, KenPom, and BPI) are mid 40’s to 50’s and their Quad 1 and 2 records are 1-5 and 3-1.  Now, these are good enough for a Power 5 to get a 9 seed but this is a mid major we are talking about. 

2.      The Power 5 bubble teams all look the same and it’s not good.  I know records aren’t supposed to matter that much but look at what’s “in” right now…18-13, 17-14, 16-15, 19-12, 19-12.  That’s flat out gross.  I hope every single one of those teams lose their first round conference tournament games.  They are all below .500 in conference (also not “considered”) and the best record against Quad 1 and 2 is 9-14 (Texas).  Let me remind you again, these are bubble teams IN!  Out, which for me are NC State, Alabama, Creighton, and Indiana are actually worse!  Well, NC State is 8-8 against Q1 and Q2 but their Non-Conference Strength of Schedule is +350.  Hello Syracuse and St. Mary’s of years past.

3.      Belmont, who I am probably putting in over Furman today, has a profile that not only should get them in, but *should* slot them around a 10 seed if only they had a different name, like “Clemson” or “Florida”.  The Bruins sport computer numbers in the mid 40’s, a 5-3 record against Q1 and Q2, and a NCSOS of 76.  That shows me they pushed themselves and still won the hard games.  You can’t tell me if Belmont played 10 more Q1 and Q2 games they would have went 0-10.  2-8 in those games gives them a better Q1/Q2 record than Ohio St, Florida, Texas, Clemson, TCU, and Indiana.

As a side note, Arizona State is a very curious case for the committee this year.  They are 11-5 vs Q1/Q2 but 6-2 vs Q4.  Is that better than Clemson at 8-12 vs Q1/Q2 but 6-0 against Q4?