Power 6 Preview Part 5 - Big-10

Big 10

Projected Champion:  Michigan State

Possible Contenders:  Purdue

At-Large Bids: Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Maryland, Indiana

As is the theme this year with the Power conference there is a clear cut favorite to win the conference.  In the Big 10 it’s Michigan State.  There is no doubt this is top 5 team and outside of a certain team in the ACC they may be the second favorite to cut down the nets in March, actually April.  Purdue seems to be on everybody’s radar as the number two team but after that its going to be like throwing darts at a wall.  Northwestern should be good but I was so sick of hearing about them last year I’m almost cheering against them.  Wisconsin should be good, but not Final Four good.  Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa all seem to be in the same 7-10 range.  I guess one team could get hot and make a run but it seems like a stretch at this point.  I’m predicting Maryland to bounce back and get a low seed and as a surprise Archie Miller puts Indiana on the map sooner rather than later.

Power 6 Preview Part 4 - Big-12

Big 12

Projected Champion:  Kansas

Possible Contenders:  None

At-Large Bids: WVU, Baylor, TCU, Texas, Oklahoma

There’s rumblings every year  that this may be the year that Kansas finally loses their stranglehold on the Big 12.  Once again, I don’t see it.  Kansas is still really really good.  Final Four good.  Are any of these other team even in that conversation?  West Virginia will always be solid with Huggy Bear leading the squad but they aren’t a top 10 team.  Baylor is good but they lost a lot and will fall off a bit.  TCU is on the rise but they just don’t have the players to go far.  A bid is a giant step for them.  Texas is still 2 years away in my opinion but when 2020 comes around I expect Shaka Smart to have this team pushing Kansas.  Until then, pencil Kansas in as the Big 12 champion and either an Elite Eight run or a loss in the first round to Bucknell

Power 6 Preview Part 3 - Pac-12

Pac-12

Projected Champion:  Arizona

Possible Contenders:  USC

At-Large Bids: UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona State

Arizona is a big favorite here and is a real threat to win the National Championship.   Unfortantely for them they have two things working against them.  First is Sean Miller who, maybe unfairly, has been labeled as a coach who can’t get over the hump and get this team to a Final Four.  Second, the big recruiting scandal has hit the Wildcats.  Nothing big has come down yet but that’s a cloud you don’t want around all season.  Without that this is a Final Four team.  Going back to the scandal, USC is affected as well.  Maybe a contender for the Pac-12 title they will be held down as well.  Depth is solid and there is a lot of talent.  Andy Enfield is a great coach and he should be able to get the most out of this group.  As for the at-large group I don’t think we a have much above a 7 seed.  Oregon will be good but not great after losing a ton.  Stanford will be solid and Arizona State is on the rise with Bobby Hurley.  Watch for ASU to take over this conference in 2-3 years

More Big East

As we begin the season., the Big East is second in KenPom conference “power rankings”. Brian is right about Villanova being the favorite and the only legit national title contender in this league. Being 2nd in pre-season speaks more to the depth of this ten-team league.

Providence, Xavier and Seton Hall check in at 25, 26 and 28 respectively. Basically, that’s some 5-6 seed teams. My hunch is, two of these teams are higher than that come selection Sunday. Providence is riddled with injuries to start the season. Emmitt Holt has an abdominal injury that sounds serious. Jalen Lindsay and Drew Edwards are also dealing with injuries. Don’t be surprised if Providence struggles out of the gate.

I like Xavier and Seton Hall a lot. Both have potential All-American players in Trevon Bluiett and Angel Delgado. Both are potential Sweet 16 teams.

Butler, Creighton and Marquette are 42, 45 and 49 respectively. I think St. John’s is amongst this group as well battling for 5th place. Two of the four will dance. Pretty likely one will be in a play-in game. I’ll delve into Marquette next week but if they defense can be Top 80, they play in the tournament. I’m more bullish on St. John’s than a lot of people. Justin Simon and Marvin Clark can be impact newcomers in the league.

The best thing about the Big East is the round robin format and depth of the league. Even DePaul should be a lot better. They start the season 119th, which is higher than they’ve been in some time. They’ll win a few games that’ll make some fanbases ornery. Remember the name Max Strus. 

The Big East is going to be buckets of fun again this year. 

Power 6 Preview Part 2 - Big East

Big East

Projected Champion:  Villanova

Possible Contenders:  Xavier

At-Large Bids: Seton Hall, Providence, Creighton

Villanova again looks like the favorite in the Big East this year.  Jalen Brunson should be the player of the year in this conference and Villanova is a legit Final Four contender.  Coming up behind them are going to be a group of teams that need to figure out a way to separate themselves from each other.  I don’t think there’s a clear cut #2 team here but based on history I’d lean with Xavier.  Providence  and Seton Hall have been slowly building over the past couple years and although I do expect them to take another step forward I don’t think they have enough to contend for the conference title.  Creighton seems to be a step below these teams and I can see them sneaking in and being one of the First Four.

SEC: Eric vs. Brian

I disagree with Brian slightly about what lies ahead for the SEC. Largely, I believe Florida and Texas A&M are better than what Brian thinks they are.

KenPom has Kentucky 2 and Florida 8 at the beginning of the season. If you asked me which team matches those expectations, I’ll take Florida.

The Gators lose Kasey Hill and Devin Robinson and don’t have John Egbunu until January. It’s likely the defense is worse this year but I love the backcourt. Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen are rock solid players. Kevarrius Hayes has a chance to take a big step for this club in the frontcourt. Also, they added Egor Koulechov as a graduate transfer from Rice. While not a big guy, he is a very good rebounder. The competition is tougher but don’t be surprised if he’s a major contributor.

Texas A&M begins the season 15th. Robert Williams, a potential lottery pick is the sexy name in College Station but this is a deep squad. Tyler Davis and DJ Hogg, both juniors are double-digit scorers. PG was a concern last year but redshirt freshman JJ Caldwell is a former 4* capable of running the offense. They also added Marquette graduate transfer Duane Wilson who will see time at the point. This is a Sweet 16 team.

Alabama is 23rd in KenPom and should dance for the first time since 2006. The league should be deeper and more competitive than in recent memory. The uncertainty at Auburn probably weakens the league but this is likely a 7-bid league. Keep an eye on Vandy. They open 38th in KenPom and Bryce Drew is involved with some top flight recruits. Good things are happening in Nashville.

Oh, yeah. Almost forgot about Kentucky. I was a little surprised they were 2nd in KenPom. I have little doubt they’re as talented as any team in the nation. I have no idea what to expect. Is this 2012? Or is this 2013? My gut tells me it’s closer to 2012. I’m not sleeping on Hamidou Diallo’s early enrollment last January. Those practice experiences matter. Wenyen Gabriel and Sacha Killeya-Jones are talented enough to take significant leaps. I’d guess Gabriel is more likely to do that between the two. He was productive at times last year.

I do believe Kentucky will likely win the SEC but my guess is, the record is less impressive than last year even if they’re a better squad. The competition should be better and deeper. Kentucky is probably the only national title contender but 3 teams into the second weekend isn’t a reach. 

Power 6 Preview Part 1 - SEC

SEC

Projected Champion:  Kentucky

Possible Contenders:  None

At-Large Bids: Florida, Texas A&M, Missouri, Alabama

I’ve read a lot about an SEC resurgence but I just don’t see it.  They may get a couple more bids this year than in years past but outside of Kentucky these are all 7-11 seed teams.  Speaking of Kentucky, they aren’t what they used to be either.  Sure, they will win the SEC but I’m finding it hard to believe they are actual National Title contenders.  Great, but not championship great.  Texas A&M seems like the next in line with Robert Williams coming back but again, this is not a 1-4 seed team.  Florida lost a lot but will be good enough to get a mid-range bid.  Alabama will be solid but not spectacular although they do have a nice group of Freshman coming in.  Speaking of freshman, Missouri should be able to do what LSU with Ben Simmons and Washington with Markelle Fultz couldn’t do…get a bid with the 1.1 Michael Porter.