UCF

Earlier today, UCF hosted and beat Texas Tech, 88-82 to move to 17-4 overall, and 6-3 in the Big XIIIIII. Let’s learn about Johnny Dawkins hoopers.

Only 45 in KenPom, UCF is probably not a threat to make much noise in March but given Dawkins was on the hot seat entering the year, a tourney bid would be a great result. They’re 31st in AdjustedO but 79th in AdjustedD. The D is 228th in effective fg%. Woof. Other than defensive rebounding, this is a mediocre defense.

Offensively, they’re 20th in the nation shooting from 3 and a very good offensive rebounding team. Jordan Burks shoots 39% from 3 and Riley Kugel shoots 40% from 3. Carmelo Pachero is a low usage player who shoots 40% from 3. Winning more will revolve around them making 3’s. Bad shooting nights will doom them but they haven’t had many yet.

The schedule is manageable the remainder of the year. Trips to Houston and BYU remain. A win in one of these would go a long way to shoring up a bid. They do have games across the board against some bubbly teams, so a bid isn’t locked in.

Looking at their wins out of league, a win over Texas A&M is their best win. The schedule wasn’t daunting but the wins they have were against better than average mid-majors. Only 2-wins out of league were against sub-200 KenPom teams. It shouldn’t wow you but these were games you might have seen UCF lose in other seasons.

Brian has them as a 7-seed and that’s about right. They can get into that 4-6 range with a strong finish but feels more likely they stay in the 7-10 range.  I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if they end up on the bubble either but that doesn’t feel likely as the moment.  They’d prefer a 7 or 10 and I could see them shooting a 2-seed out of the gym in an upset. That’s the best case scenario but a scenario they’d have taken as the season begun.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Maryland Eastern Shore/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. Vermont/Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Tennessee Martin
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Austin Peay
2. Illinois  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Houston  vs  14. UT Arlington
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. BYU  vs  13. Troy
4. Purdue  vs  13. Liberty
4. Purdue  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Arkansas  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. St. John's  vs  12. Tulsa
5. Louisville  vs  12. Yale
6. Virginia  vs  11. San Diego St.
6. Clemson  vs  11. Seton Hall/New Mexico
6. Alabama  vs  11. Virginia Tech/Ohio St.
6. Tennessee  vs  11. UCLA
7. SMU  vs  10. Georgia
7. Villanova  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. USC
7. UCF  vs  10. Miami Fl
8. Kentucky  vs  9. Wisconsin
8. Iowa  vs  9. N.C. State
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Auburn  vs  9. Utah St.

First Four Out - Indiana

First Four Out - Santa Clara

First Four Out - Texas

First Four Out - Creighton

Next Four Out - TCU

Next Four Out - Missouri

Next Four Out - George Mason

Next Four Out - California

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Butler

Bubble Out = Continue to be Bubble Out

 

It wasn’t the best week for bubble teams outside the bracket.  In fact, I didn’t move one team in that was out from Tuesday’s bracket due to the carnage.  Let’s take a look at the 12 teams that are out and being tracked:

First Four Out:

Texas – lost

Indiana – Big win vs Purdue; the only team with a resume building win out here

Santa Clara – Won

TCU – loss

Creighton – destroyed at Marquette

Next Four Out

Missouri – Bad loss

George Mason – won, but they really aren’t close to getting in

California – loss

Also Considered

LSU – loss

Baylor – loss and replaced by VCU

Stanford – loss

Butler – loss

In summary, that’s 3-9 with only 1 good win across the past 3 days.  New Bracket will be out soon

Miami, NTM

Did you know Miami (not that Miami) is 24 in the AP. Wild. The undefeated RedHawks are off to the best start in school history and MAC history. How good are they?

Well, probably not that good. They’re 90th in KenPom which isn’t the best in their league. That belongs to Akron who is 53. But Miami owns a win over them, the RedHawks only win over a top-100 KenPom team. While think Akron is better, Miami is still a fun story.

They’re 63rd in adjustedO and 169th in adjustedD. What they excel at is shooting. They just passed St. Louis to take the top spot in real shooting. They’re 18th in 3-point shooting % and 4th in 2-point shooting %. They’re also 23rd in FT shooting and 64th in FTA/FGA.  They’ll go as far as their shooting takes them.

The results are padded by a bit of luck. They have 3 overtime wins and 4 single possession game wins. Still, Travis Steele’s team shouldn’t apologize for winning. They’ve been building to this since he got to Oxford at the start of the ‘23 season. With 4 players shooting 40% from 3, if they do make the dance, they can outshoot someone(s) and get their first tourney win since Wally Szczerbiak took them to the Sweet 16 in 1999.

Wednesday Thoughts on our Top Seed Lines

 

1 Seeds

Arizona – took care of business against BYU, top 4 in both Offense and Defense efficiency

Michigan – Also top ten in both Offense and Defense efficiency.  Only blemish is a loss to Wisconsin who shot the light out.  Teamed up with 3 referees to beat Nebraska last night in a game where they committed 8 fouls in the first 39 minutes and shot 20 more free throws.

Connecticut – Offense isn’t as good as other top tier teams but they played a third of the season below full strength

Duke – continues to cruise with top 5 numbers.  Scheyer is mixing and matching each game differently to win. Is that sustainable?

2 Seeds

Nebraska – Without two of their top four players they out played Michigan, causing 19 turnovers to 11 but somehow shot 20 less free throws and committed more than twice as many fouls as the Wolverines.

Gonzaga – Same story every year; how battle tested are they?  Playing without 2 starters at the moment

Iowa State – The two losses are a nothing burger, Efficiency is top 20 in both which is a requirement for title contenders

Illinois – beat Purdue behind 46 from Keaton Wagler.  He won’t replicate that and the Defense might not be good enough for March.

3 Seeds

Purdue – Three losses in a row including at UCLA and Indiana doesn’t look great in the resume.

Michigan State – Barely in the top 50 in offensive efficiency, however they are #1 since January 1 at BartTorvik.com.  Looked terrible at Rutgers last night and needed overtime to get the W.

Houston – No shame in losing at Texas Tech.  Losses are both Quad 1.  Great resume as a 3 seed

Kansas – better than last year’s version of Kansas but not a Final Four team; even with Peterson.

Bonus Team Number 10

Vanderbilt – hanging in there in both Torvik and KenPom.  After a 3 game losing streak they’ve now won 2 in a row including a drubbing of Kentucky last night.

Tuesday Bracketology

1. Arizona  vs  16. Maryland Eastern Shore/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. Vermont/Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Tennessee Martin
2. Nebraska  vs  15. Navy
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Lipscomb
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. UT Arlington
3. Houston  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Troy
4. BYU  vs  13. Hawaii
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. Liberty
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Arkansas  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. St. John's  vs  12. Tulsa
5. Louisville  vs  12. Yale
6. Virginia  vs  11. San Diego St.
6. Clemson  vs  11. Seton Hall/New Mexico
6. Alabama  vs  11. Virginia Tech/Ohio St.
6. Kentucky  vs  11. UCLA
7. SMU  vs  10. Miami Fl
7. Tennessee  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. USC
7. Villanova  vs  10. Wisconsin
8. UCF  vs  9. N.C. State
8. Iowa  vs  9. Georgia
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Auburn  vs  9. Utah St.

First Four Out - Texas

First Four Out - Indiana

First Four Out - Santa Clara

First Four Out - Creighton

Next Four Out - TCU

Next Four Out - Missouri

Next Four Out - George Mason

Next Four Out - California

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - Baylor

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Butler

Sunday Morning Winners and Losers

Winners:

TCU over Baylor — In a true bubble clash, TCU grabbed a crucial résumé win that nudges the Horned Frogs toward the right side of the cut line while Baylor slips further into “must-win” territory.

Auburn over Florida — Auburn’s win adds another quality result that steadies its tournament position, while Florida takes a hit that tightens its margin for staying in the protected-seed range.

North Carolina over Virginia — North Carolina’s comeback strengthens its seed-line case and keeps upward pressure on the top half of the bracket, as Virginia absorbs a damaging loss in the crowded middle of the field.

Losers:

George Mason at Rhode Island — As the last team in the field, George Mason’s road loss is a résumé killer that likely drops the Patriots out of the bracket and onto the wrong side of the bubble.

Virginia Tech vs Louisville — Virginia Tech’s loss further thins an already-fragile résumé, cementing the Hokies’ position in the First Four Out range with dwindling chances to recover.

Georgia at Texas — With a non-conference strength of schedule north of 250, Georgia couldn’t afford this loss, which sharply damages its at-large profile and pushes the Bulldogs toward the edge of the bubble.