Tuesday Bracketology

1. Arizona  vs  16. Maryland Eastern Shore/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. Vermont/Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Tennessee Martin
2. Nebraska  vs  15. Navy
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Lipscomb
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. UT Arlington
3. Houston  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Troy
4. BYU  vs  13. Hawaii
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. Liberty
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Arkansas  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. St. John's  vs  12. Tulsa
5. Louisville  vs  12. Yale
6. Virginia  vs  11. San Diego St.
6. Clemson  vs  11. Seton Hall/New Mexico
6. Alabama  vs  11. Virginia Tech/Ohio St.
6. Kentucky  vs  11. UCLA
7. SMU  vs  10. Miami Fl
7. Tennessee  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. USC
7. Villanova  vs  10. Wisconsin
8. UCF  vs  9. N.C. State
8. Iowa  vs  9. Georgia
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Auburn  vs  9. Utah St.

First Four Out - Texas

First Four Out - Indiana

First Four Out - Santa Clara

First Four Out - Creighton

Next Four Out - TCU

Next Four Out - Missouri

Next Four Out - George Mason

Next Four Out - California

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - Baylor

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Butler

Sunday Morning Winners and Losers

Winners:

TCU over Baylor — In a true bubble clash, TCU grabbed a crucial résumé win that nudges the Horned Frogs toward the right side of the cut line while Baylor slips further into “must-win” territory.

Auburn over Florida — Auburn’s win adds another quality result that steadies its tournament position, while Florida takes a hit that tightens its margin for staying in the protected-seed range.

North Carolina over Virginia — North Carolina’s comeback strengthens its seed-line case and keeps upward pressure on the top half of the bracket, as Virginia absorbs a damaging loss in the crowded middle of the field.

Losers:

George Mason at Rhode Island — As the last team in the field, George Mason’s road loss is a résumé killer that likely drops the Patriots out of the bracket and onto the wrong side of the bubble.

Virginia Tech vs Louisville — Virginia Tech’s loss further thins an already-fragile résumé, cementing the Hokies’ position in the First Four Out range with dwindling chances to recover.

Georgia at Texas — With a non-conference strength of schedule north of 250, Georgia couldn’t afford this loss, which sharply damages its at-large profile and pushes the Bulldogs toward the edge of the bubble.

Billikens

Brian’s latest mock has the 19-1 St. Louis Billikens as a 7-seed. The presumptive A-10 champ has a 13-game winning streak and look to end a tourney drought that dates back to 2019. Legit mid-major monster or a likely opening weekend loser?

The Billikens have the nations best effective fg% on both defense and offense. That’s remarkable. They’re 4th in 2-point shooting and 6th in 3-point shooting on offense and 3rd in both on the defensive side. Overall, they’re 39th and 25th in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency because that’s all they do well in the four factors except defensive rebounding.

What does it mean? If you’re going to lead in something in the Four Factors, it’s the two they lead in. It’s easily the most important but it does mean there are concerns. They don’t turn teams over and they foul a lot. They’re a bit loose with the ball and don’t get to the line. However, given what they do well, as a potential 7-seed, I wouldn’t want to see them on opening weekend.

The schedule hasn’t been very tough. Their best non-con wins are Santa Clara and Grand Canyon. The lone loss was to Stanford. They won’t get a marquee matchup in the league as VCU is the only top-50 KenPom team in the A-10 (they did win at VCU). Hard to see them earning anything higher than a 5-seed or so.

Robbie Avila followed Josh Schertz to St. Louis and continues to be a productive player. Trey Green is shooting 48% from 3. They have a lot of good college basketball players that each do something well. Love the mix on this team.

Hard to gauge just how good they are but are certainly capable of a Sweet 16. Josh Schertz will be a popular name in the next coaching carousel. 

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/Maryland Eastern Shore

1. Michigan  vs  16. Vermont/Saint Peter's

1. Connecticut  vs  16. Queens

1. Duke  vs  16. Navy

2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Tennessee Martin

2. Nebraska  vs  15. LIU

2. Iowa St.  vs  15. North Dakota St.

2. Houston  vs  15. Portland St.

3. Purdue  vs  14. East Tennessee St.

3. Michigan St.  vs  14. UNC Wilmington

3. Illinois  vs  14. Hawaii

3. BYU  vs  14. Wright St.

4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Troy

4. Florida  vs  13. Liberty

4. BYU  vs  13. Utah Valley

4. BYU  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin

5. Virginia  vs  12. Florida Atlantic

5. Alabama  vs  12. High Point

5. St. John's  vs  12. Yale

5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. Murray St.

6. North Carolina  vs  11. George Mason

6. Louisville  vs  11. New Mexico/Virginia Tech

6. Clemson  vs  11. Ohio St./San Diego St.

6. Villanova  vs  11. Seton Hall

7. SMU  vs  10. Auburn

7. Kentucky  vs  10. Miami Fl

7. Saint Louis  vs  10. Miami OH

7. Wisconsin  vs  10. N.C. State

8. Tennessee  vs  9. Texas A&M

8. Iowa  vs  9. USC

8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. UCF

8. Georgia  vs  9. Utah St.

First Four Out - UCLA

First Four Out - Baylor

First Four Out - LSU

First Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Tulsa

Next Four Out - Santa Clara

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - Creighton

Also Considered - Texas

Also Considered - Missouri

Also Considered - Butler

Virginia but Fun

Would you look at that? After Tony Bennett tried picking his successor and him failing miserably, Virginia went out and hired someone who likes basketball in Ryan Odom. The Cavs are 16-2, 14th in KenPom with a top 20 offense and defense. They project as a Final 4 team in Odom’s first year.

While not as slow as Bennett’s teams, Odom’s team is still 287th in tempo. But it isn’t a methodical offense. The offense is 142nd in possession length. The defense just makes you work on your possessions. They have the 3rd best effective fg% defensively. They have 2 7-footers who are amongst the best shot blockers in the nation. Frosh Johann Grunloh and Senior Ugonna Onyenso, late of K-State and Kentucky.

Offensively, they’re 35th in effective fg% and 3rd in offensive rebounding %. That helps explain the longer offensive possessions. Only being a bad FT shooting team hampers this offense.

The non-con schedule was pretty bad. The best win is at Texas and they have a neutral court loss to Butler. However, they have won at Louisville, NC State and SMU, all top-35 KenPom wins. KenPom projects them to go 15-3 in league and 26-5 overall. They get UNC at home this Saturday and only play Duke once, later in the year in Durham. Yeah, they can win the league.

This is a balanced roster and solid club. I doubt it’s a Final 4 team, despite the current numbers but a Sweet 16 run in Odom’s first season won’t be a surprise. 

Tonight's Games of Note

 Indiana at Michigan — Indiana looks to move onto the right side of the bubble after uneven recent results, while Michigan, coming off a strong stretch of wins, aims to solidify its hold on a No. 1 seed.

Seton Hall at St. John’s — Seton Hall looks to strengthen its at-large position as St. John’s, heating up lately, tries to turn momentum into a move up the seed line.

UCF at Iowa State — UCF tries to climb off the 8/9 line while Iowa State looks to stop a two-game skid and protect its spot on the top-two seed line.

Texas Tech at Baylor — Texas Tech looks to solidify a protected seed, while Baylor, desperate for a résumé boost after uneven results, fights to re-enter the at-large picture.

Vanderbilt at Arkansas — Vanderbilt aims to halt a two-game slide and stay in the 4–5 range as Arkansas looks to steady its footing in the middle of the bracket.

Tuesday Bracketology

1. Arizona  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/Maryland Eastern Shore
1. Michigan  vs  16. Vermont/Queens
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Saint Peter's
1. Duke  vs  16. Colgate
2. Purdue  vs  15. LIU
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Nebraska  vs  15. North Dakota St.
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Portland St.
3. Houston  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Illinois  vs  14. Wright St.
3. BYU  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hawaii
4. Florida  vs  13. Liberty
4. BYU  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. BYU  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. Florida Atlantic
5. Virginia  vs  12. High Point
5. Alabama  vs  12. Yale
5. St. John's  vs  12. Murray St.
6. Arkansas  vs  11. George Mason
6. North Carolina  vs  11. New Mexico/Texas
6. Louisville  vs  11. Ohio St./San Diego St.
6. Saint Louis  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. SMU  vs  10. Auburn
7. Kentucky  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Iowa  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Wisconsin  vs  10. Georgia
8. Tennessee  vs  9. Seton Hall
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. USC
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. Villanova
8. Utah St.  vs  9. UCF

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - Baylor

First Four Out - LSU

First Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - Santa Clara

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - UCLA

Also Considered - Missouri

Also Considered - Butler

January Contenders

I’ll cheat and copy Brian’s tiers.

Tier 1 - Definitely Can Win It All

Arizona - Yes. Wildly good. 4th best offense, 6th best defense. Will get tested weekly in the Big XIIIIII. Would be my pick today.

Iowa State - I was wrong about the offense. 4th best 3-point shooting team in the nation lead by Milan Momcilovic. 71.6 effective fg%, 54% from 3. Bad FT shooting team but the rest of the offense is best it’s been in TJO era. Not good today, though.  Sloppy game at Cincinnati.

Michigan - Defense has come back to earth last two weeks. UW-Madison dragged the bigs out and outshot them. We’ll see how they adjust as I’m sure others will copy that game plan. Not sure this is the best team in the Big 18. Still very good.

Houston - Don’t trust the offense. Mediocre shooting team. Final 4 good, don’t believe they can win it all.

UConn - Offense isn’t good enough and the league won’t test them enough.

Tier 2 - Need to see more, flawed

Duke - Final 4 good. Probably doesn’t shoot the 3 well enough.

Gonzaga - Solid in all phases except FT shooting. Will go through the motions until the tourney. I know FT shooting in the advanced stat era is a shoulder shrug of concerns but they’ll play in a lot of blowouts until the tourney. That FT concern will be an issue in a close tourney game.

Tier 3 - Underrated?  Maybe?

Purdue - Absolutely good enough offensively, defense is good but not great. Can Daniel Jacobsen stay on the court and be a menace inside? Still developing. If he takes a step, could help make defense better.

Illinois - See Purdue. Great offense. Good but not great defense. Game at Purdue next week should be fun.

Vanderbilt - Top 15 efficient offense and defense. 15th and 21st entering at effective fg% on offense and defense. Is it sustainable? Texas beat them 80-64 and Florida has 86 through 35 minutes. Whatever the case, Mark Byington is establishing himself as hot commodity.

Tier 4 - Confused

Nebraska - 15th in KenPom and undefeated on 1-17 from a major conference should confuse you. 3 one possession wins in league play. Some luck. League schedule is pretty manageable.

BYU - Final 4 good, not good enough as of today to win it all.

Florida - Look good at Vandy. Not good enough shooting team. 152nd offensive effective fg%, 353rd in 3-point shooting. 37.5% from 3 today is 10% higher than year average.

Texas Tech - Not good enough defensively. 

Tier 5 - Frauds

Michigan State - 58th offensively in KenPom. Not good enough at all. Best rebounding team in America, though. 

North Carolina - Projected to go 10-8 in league play. Not a chance they’re a contender for anything other than a bid.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/North Carolina Central

1. Iowa St.  vs  16. Vermont/Dartmouth

1. Connecticut  vs  16. Saint Peter's

1. Michigan  vs  16. Colgate

2. Duke  vs  15. LIU

2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Tennessee Martin

2. Purdue  vs  15. Austin Peay

2. Nebraska  vs  15. Wright St.

3. BYU  vs  14. Portland St.

3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy

3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. St. Thomas

3. Florida  vs  14. East Tennessee St.

4. Illinois  vs  13. Hawaii

4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Liberty

4. Florida  vs  13. Utah Valley

4. Florida  vs  13. UNC Wilmington

5. Kansas  vs  12. McNeese St.

5. Virginia  vs  12. High Point

5. Arkansas  vs  12. Tulsa

5. North Carolina  vs  12. Murray St.

6. Utah St.  vs  11. Texas

6. Louisville  vs  11. Texas A&M/Indiana

6. Clemson  vs  11. Auburn/Ohio St.

6. SMU  vs  11. Miami OH

7. St. John's  vs  10. Georgia

7. Tennessee  vs  10. N.C. State

7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCLA

7. USC  vs  10. New Mexico

8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Kentucky

8. Saint Louis  vs  9. Seton Hall

8. Iowa  vs  9. Wisconsin

8. UCF  vs  9. Villanova

First Four Out - George Mason

First Four Out - Baylor

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - LSU

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Missouri

Also Considered - Dayton

Also Considered - Creighton

January Contenders

 

With about 2 months left before Selection Sunday now is a good time to Tier out the top 16 teams in my bracket and put them in buckets.  In my estimation this is the strongest top 10-15 teams we’ve seen in awhile and I can’t argue with prognosticators who think there are at least 10 teams that can win it all.  I don’t believe the group is that large but I’m going to see where I end up as I type this out.
 
Tier 1 – Definitely can win it all this year
Arizona – still undefeated
Iowa State – loss to Kansas last night changes nothing
Michigan – losing to Wisconsin might give them motivation
Houston – I might have them as my favorite right now
Connecticut – I debated putting them in Tier 2 but now that they are at full strength they look dominant
 
Tier 2 – Need to see more; they have a flaw
Duke – contender but they need a consistent third scorer and to stop digging an early hole
Gonzaga – can probably never be a Tier 1 team until they actually win it all
 
Tier 3 – I *think* they are underrated; I need to dig deeper
Purdue – have the talent and guard play.  Only loss is to Iowa State
Illinois – I said they were overrated early in the season.  All losses are to top 20 teams
Vanderbilt – Look solid but they are Vanderbilt
 
Tier 4 – I’m confused; are these teams really contenders?
Nebraska – undefeated and the best story in college but they are Nebraska
BYU – great metrics but only played 1 team in the top 25…and lost
Florida – Jekyll and Hyde all year.  On the upswing but can you trust the guards?
Texas Tech – I want them to be in a higher Tier but outside of Toppin and Anderson…
 
Tier 5 – Frauds
Michigan State – Every year I hear how great they are, but they have 1 Final Four in the last 10 years
North Carolina – I can’t believe I’m typing this, but they are going to really miss Elliot Cadeau.
 
Kurly – What do you got for contenders?

Tuesday Bracketology

1. Arizona  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/North Carolina Central
1. Iowa St.  vs  16. Vermont/Dartmouth
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Michigan  vs  16. Navy
2. Duke  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Quinnipiac
2. Purdue  vs  15. Austin Peay
2. Vanderbilt  vs  15. Wright St.
3. BYU  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Nebraska  vs  14. St. Thomas
3. Texas Tech  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
4. Illinois  vs  13. Hawaii
4. Louisville  vs  13. Liberty
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hofstra
5. North Carolina  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Alabama  vs  12. High Point
5. Virginia  vs  12. Tulsa
5. Kansas  vs  12. Murray St.
6. Utah St.  vs  11. New Mexico
6. Arkansas  vs  11. UCLA/LSU
6. Clemson  vs  11. Texas A&M/Miami OH
6. SMU  vs  11. Ohio St.
7. St. John's  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Tennessee  vs  10. Indiana
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. Kentucky
7. USC  vs  10. Georgia
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Wisconsin
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. Seton Hall
8. Iowa  vs  9. UCF
8. Auburn  vs  9. Villanova

First Four Out - Texas

First Four Out - Baylor

First Four Out - George Mason

First Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Butler

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - San Diego St.

Also Considered - Oklahoma

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Creighton

Nebraska?

Fred Hoiberg is coaching his 7th season at Nebraska. That’s 2 more seasons than he was at Iowa State. Doesn’t seem possible. Neither does an undefeated Nebraska who is 15-0 and 4-0 in the Big 18. Counting the CBC title of a year ago, Nebraska is on a 19-game winning streak. This isn’t just a woman’s volleyball school anymore.

Nebraska has never made the 2nd weekend in the tournament. Never. Before we get too excited, they are 19th in KenPom which is quite good but doesn’t translate to a 2nd weekend team but that feels irrelevant. What might be relevant is, they’re 27th in KenPom luck metric which means this probably isn’t sustainable.

The good news is, they’ve built some equity and even if they finished 8-8 in their last 16, they’re in the dance. They’re projected to finish 14-6 in the league and that’s a mortal lock.

They have some warts on offense. They fire a ton of 3’s and are average at making them. They’re better at 2’s, 60%, 20th in the nation. When they lose in March, it’ll be a cold shooting night. Since they do not rebound their misses, 2nd chances will be limited. 

What they do at an elite level is, not turn it over, 13th in Turnover %. 47th in AdjO isn’t good enough to be threat to win it all and I have my doubts they get much better offensively but it’s good enough to make that 1st 2nd weekend.

Defensively, they’re quite good. 28th best effective defensive fg% and they do not foul. While they don’t crash the offensive glass, they’re 27th in defensive rebounding %. Basically, this is a team that does not beat itself.

I think it’s likely they tail off and are a bit of an afterthought when we get to March but it’s been impressive what they’ve done so far. The majority of the minutes are upperclassmen, so it’s a veteran squad, even if they haven’t all played together their entire college career. Fun season in Lincoln and after the football team sucked again and the lady volleyballers choked like dogs, a welcome respite.

First Bracketology of 2026

 1. Michigan  vs  16. Grambling St./North Carolina Central
1. Arizona  vs  16. Merrimack/Lindenwood
1. Iowa St.  vs  16. Vermont
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Utah Tech
2. Duke  vs  15. Colgate
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. LIU
2. Purdue  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Vanderbilt  vs  15. Lipscomb
3. BYU  vs  14. UC Irvine
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Alabama  vs  14. St. Thomas
3. Kansas  vs  14. Oakland
4. Nebraska  vs  13. East Tennessee St.
4. Louisville  vs  13. Liberty
4. Kansas  vs  13. High Point
4. Kansas  vs  13. William & Mary
5. Illinois  vs  12. Stephen F. Austin
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Memphis
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Murray St.
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. Yale
6. Georgia  vs  11. Saint Louis
6. Virginia  vs  11. Ohio St./Oklahoma
6. Florida  vs  11. Virginia Tech/Miami OH
6. Iowa  vs  11. N.C. State
7. Utah St.  vs  10. Baylor
7. Tennessee  vs  10. Indiana
7. SMU  vs  10. UCLA
7. Auburn  vs  10. Miami Fl
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. LSU
8. USC  vs  9. Seton Hall
8. Clemson  vs  9. UCF
8. Kentucky  vs  9. St. John's

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - Butler

First Four Out - Boise St.

First Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Tulsa

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - Texas

Also Considered - George Mason

Also Considered - Colorado

Also Considered - Creighton

Michigan

Welcome to 2026. As we enter the new year, we have a monster atop the college basketball world, the Michigan Wolverines. They sit atop KenPom with a NetRtg of 39.17, with Arizona second at 34.34. That is a big gap between 1 and 2, even for January 3rd.

It’s largely built on a defense that is 1st in the nation, with a DRtg of 86.7. Again, Arizona is 2nd at 90.5. That is a big gap, too. The offense isn’t too shabby, either, sitting 5th. They’re a very good team.

The results back the numbers. After early season struggles against Wake Forest and TCU, middling teams, let’s take a look at the results.

- 40 point win over SDSU

- 30 point win over Auburn

- 25 point win over Villanova

- 41 point win over McNeese State (I include this because McNeese is 67th in KenPom and will be 12-5 nightmare in March)

- 30 point win over USC

They’re not just winning, they’re eviscerating the competition. Great teams blowout the competition.

Now, there is a lot of basketball left and since Covid, teams have become much more efficient than ever. Duke was actually better at the end of 2025 by a few decimal points and lost in the national semis. Gonzaga and Baylor were at this level in ‘21 at about the same time. Zags maintained but would lose to Baylor in the title game after Baylor saw their numbers dip as they went through the Big XII meat grinder. I think keeping the Baylor comp in mind will be important as Big 18 play ramps up.

UConn of ‘24 is another comp and they largely breezed through the season, with one hiccup in league play. Michigan will find the road much more difficult than the Huskies did, so it is likely they don’t maintain this pace.

Being where they’re at on January 3rd doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme but as of today, Michigan has been the best team in the nation and it isn’t close. How they handle adversity and a grind of a league schedule will determine where they finish but through 2 months, what they’ve done has been quite impressive.