Michigan State got another huge win and is now one of the
First Four out. Belmont took the one
loss they could not take and probably need the auto bid now.
With Ohio State losing to Michigan State I am moving
Illinois to the top line. I might be the
only person who thinks this but I like the Illini better.
The game of the night on the bubble is St. Louis vs Richmond. Neither team is in but a loss may drop them
out of consideration.
Bracket coming later today
Conference Tournaments start tonight with the Horizon league kicking us off. Cleveland State is the 1 seed but I will be taking Wright State for the mild upset. We are looking at 14 seed or so if Wright St wins. Everybody else and it's 15/16.
North Carolina was the big loser last night. Took a chance on a home game versus Marquette and came up short. I still have them as my last team in but that’s by a thread. Who are they playing in First Four according to my bracket? Fellow Blue Blood Indiana, who also lost last night. Quite the battle brewing for those last couple spots with Duke and Michigan State right there.
Tonight's big game is Iowa vs Michigan but we have some bubble action too. Western Kentucky has a gift game against Houston. They are in my Next Four out but a win here is probably enough to leap several teams. Boise State plays San Diego State and while both teams are in they don’t have a lot of room for error. I currently have 3 Mountain West teams in and Utah State as my first team out. I feel like they end up with 3 in March but best to keep winning. Speaking of Michigan State, they get another shot at a huge win with Ohio State tonight. They are coming on strong and no matter what the committee says, a big win at the end of the season just does mean more.
Also in action tonight is Minnesota who is falling like a
lead balloon and needs to string some wins together to get back on track. Lastly is Mid-Major Belmont, who is currently
24-1 and leading the Ohio Valley. Their
resume is a bit bare but it’s a unique year.
If they go undefeated in conference until their tournament and lose will
it be enough?
Last Night Michigan State and Connecticut got big wins to
stay in contention for an at-large bid.
On the flip side St. John’s and St. Louis took steps backwards. St. John’s wasn’t in before the night but St.
Louis was. I think they are now out but
I won’t reformulate the bracket until after tonight’s games.
As for tonight we have a few games to keep an eye on.St.
Boanventure plays Davidson and the Bonnies’ are one of my last 4 in. Marquette takes on North Carolina and boy
would I love to see the Tar Heels drop one here. They are secure even with a loss but they don’t
have ton of room for error. I give
credit to Roy Williams for finding these games to help bolster their resume. It can work in their favor but if they lose…
The last game worth mentioning is Rutgers vs Indiana. These teams are in the 9-11 range and I don’t
think the loser drops out but I think one of these 2 teams is left our come
March. This game could be the sticking
point to some people on the committee.
|
1
seed vs 16 seed |
|
Gonzaga
(WCC) vs Texas St(Sbelt)/ PVA&M (SWAC) |
|
Baylor
(B12) vs NC A&T(MEAC)/S.Dakota(Smmt) |
|
Michigan
(B1G) vs James Madison (Col) |
|
Alabama
(SEC) vs Bryant (NEC) |
|
2
seed vs 15 seed |
|
Ohio
State vs Grand Canyon (WAC) |
|
Illinois
vs Siena (MAAC) |
|
Villanova
(Beast) vs Vermont(Aeast) |
|
Iowa
vs E.Washington (Bsky) |
|
3
seed vs 14 seed |
|
Oklahoma
vs UNC-Greensboro (SoCon) |
|
West
Virginia vs Liberty (Asun) |
|
Houston
vs North Texas (Cusa) |
|
Florida
St (ACC) vs Abilene Christian (Sland) |
|
4
seed vs 13 seed |
|
Virginia
vs Wright St (Hor) |
|
Texas
vs Colgate (Pat) |
|
Texas
Tech vs UCSB (Bwest) |
|
Kansas
vs Winthrop (Bsouth) |
|
5
seed vs 12 seed |
|
USC
(P12) vs Toledo (MAC) |
|
Virginia
Tech vs Belmont (OVC) |
|
Tennessee
vs St. Bonaventure/Connecticut |
|
Missouri
vs Drake/Colorado St |
|
6
seed vs 11 seed |
|
Purdue
vs Maryland |
|
Wisconsin
vs Wichita St (AAC) |
|
Creighton
vs Indiana |
|
Oklahoma
St vs VCU (A10) |
|
7
seed vs 10 seed |
|
Florida
vs North Carolina |
|
Clemson
vs Oregon |
|
UCLA
vs Saint Louis |
|
Arkansas
vs Boise St (Mwest) |
|
8
seed vs 9 seed |
|
Colorado
vs Loyola (Mvalley) |
|
San
Diego St vs Rutgers |
|
LSU
vs Louisville |
|
BYU
vs Xavier |
|
First
Four Out |
|
Utah State |
|
Seton Hall |
|
Minnesota |
|
Stanford |
|
Next
Four Out |
|
Syracuse |
|
Duke |
|
SMU |
|
W.
Kentucky |
|
Also
Considered |
|
St.
John's |
|
Memphis |
|
Dayton |
|
Providence |
|
Michigan
State |
|
Louisiana
Tech |
|
UAB |
|
Richmond |
This will be a deep and long dive into the hiring of mid-major coaches. This is the most common path taken. Let’s jump in.
I’m not including Brad Underwood’s year at Oklahoma State which was a success but he only spent a year in Stillwater.
Not Enough Data Yet
The following coaches were hired recently and I don’t think we have enough data yet to form an opinion.
- Steve Forbes at Wake Forest
- Kevin Keatts at NC State, leaning bust
- Kyle Smith at Washington State
- Eric Musselman at Arkansas
- Joe Dooley at ECU
- Ron Hunter at Tulane
- Kermit Davis at Ole Miss
- John Brannen, Cincinnati
- LaVall Jordan, Butler, like Keatts maybe leaning bust but 2 bids (likely in 2020) in 4 years
Successful Hires
- Mike Young has maintained what Buzz Williams started at Virginia Tech. He had a bare cupboard when coming on but has the Hokies in 3rd place this year.
- Jim Larranaga at Miami, his seat is probably getting warm and he is getting older but he’s done very good work.
- Steve Pikiell at Rutgers, sigh, he has pounded nails indeed.
- Chris Bears at Texas Tech fits in this category because he came from UALR but he also spent a lot of time in Lubbock as an assistant. Perfect coach for a tough place to win. Red Raiders fans should thank their lucky stars.
- Andy Enfield at USC could go the other way if the NCAA nails him but after two rebuilding years, He made back-to-back tournaments and were a bubble team year 5. They missed the tourney in year 6 but would have been back last year and are clearly in this year. Has been a very good recruiter
- Will Wade at LSU, see above.
- Cuonzo Martin at Tennessee took over a program in NCAA trouble and was in a Sweet 16 his 3rd year before being run out of Knoxville
- Nate Oats has been a revelation for Bama fans and just got a fat contract extension. Marquette fans drea of a guy who ain’t coming.
- Danny Hurley at UConn is a success just for helping convince the administration they needed to be in the Big East.
Busts
- Steve Donahue and Jim Christian at BC
- Brian Gregory at Georgia Tech
- Archie Miller at Indiana
- Richard Pitino at Minnesota, I’m not sure how good this job is but he’s only had 1 winning record in league in 8 years. That’s not good enough
- John Groce at Illinois
- Pat Chambers at Pebble State
- Mike Rice at Rutgers
- Tim Miles at Nebraska
- Steve Prohm at Iowa State
- Shaka Smart at Texas, 3 tourney bids in 6 years and if holds, 2 winning records in league play isn’t good enough at Texas. Brian argues it’s the school and he could be right.
- Wayne Tinkle at Oregon State, it’s hard to believe he’s been there 7 years. In those 7 years, they’ve had 1 winning record in league play and no tourney bids. It’s a hard job but this isn’t good enough.
- Bobby Hurley at Arizona State, he’s made 3 tourneys (likely 2020 bid) in 6 years and had 2 winning league records. Has a burger boy this year and doing nothing with him.
- Jerod Haase at Stanford, no bids his first 4 years and on the bubble this year. This may be harsh. Could revisit this down the road.
- Billy Kennedy at Texas A&M, made 2 Sweet 16’s and battled health issue, so this could be harsh but he only had 2 winning records in league play.
- Johnny Jones at LSU
- Donnie Tyndall at Tennessee
- Bryce Drew at Vandy
I’m genuinely curious to get the reaction to the Brad Brownell tenure at Clemson. He’s been there 11 years and has only 2 bids but was on the bubble a lot. If the record holds this year, he’ll have finished at .500 or better in league play 7 times. At a place where basketball is an afterthought, I have no idea how to classify him.
What can we learn from this? It’s my opinion, but nothing. Hiring coaches is a crapshoot. Many hires look good on paper and then fail spectacularly. Nate Oats seemed a good coach but Alabama isn’t a place you’d expect great success and here we are. Patience is key as well except when it isn’t. A bad year or two at the beginning shouldn’t cause panic but as in the case of a place like Minnesota, that’s your highest expectation?
If Marquette makes a coaching change, ignore the cliches. You and I have no idea who will be successful in Milwaukee. All you can do is hope as a fan or alum. Good luck with that.
