Monday Bracketology

 1. Duke  vs  16. Howard/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Tennessee St.
1. Arizona  vs  16. Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
2. Purdue  vs  15. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Houston  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Florida  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Hawaii
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Kansas  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Alabama  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. St. John's  vs  12. High Point
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Belmont
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. Yale
5. Arkansas  vs  12. South Florida
6. Louisville  vs  11. California
6. BYU  vs  11. UCLA/New Mexico
6. North Carolina  vs  11. Santa Clara/TCU
6. N.C. State  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. Wisconsin  vs  10. Texas
7. Villanova  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Auburn
7. Utah St.  vs  10. Indiana
8. Clemson  vs  9. Georgia
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. Iowa
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. Miami Fl
8. SMU  vs  9. UCF

First Four Out - TCU

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - USC

Next Four Out - Ohio St.

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Nevada

Also Considered - West Virginia

Top 16 Vibes

Let’s look at Brian’s Top-16 based on seeding and check their vibes heading towards March. A contender or pretender edition.

Arizona - Vibes are better after a win at Houston. Still a contender.

Duke - Sky high vibes. The loss to UNC sucked but didn’t really derail the goal of a regular season title and 1-seed. They have the best player in the nation, a player good enough to carry a team to a title. 

Michigan - Vibes are still high. Losing by 5 to Duke in the middle of the Big 18 season is a disappointment but winning in Mackey big earlier this week keeps them atop the league and keeping a 1-seed.

Houston - Lukewarm vibes. Back-to-back losses to Iowa State and Arizona aren’t bad losses but losing streaks aren’t good for the vibes.

UConn - Better after beating Nova but losing to a mediocre Creighton team at home? Bad vibes, man.

Iowa State - Wins at home over Kansas and Houston followed by a loss at BYU. Vibes are fine.

Illinois - Vibes are sinking. 3 overtime losses in the last 5. Big 18 titles just about snuffed out. Defensive concerns real.

Florida - Sky high vibes. Offense is performing better, shooting has improved but 3PT % still woof. On the way to an SEC title.

Kansas - Vibes crashing. Home loss to Cincinnati. Best player unreliable. Upset fodder opening weekend.

Nebraska - Vibes flattening. 3-4 in their last 7, west coast trip awaits them after a home tilt against Maryland. Offense not good enough.

Gonzaga - Vibes are on cruise control until the tournament. Playing fine. Not sure what they are.

Purdue - Vibes are mostly good. Non-competitive home loss to Michigan exposes their ceiling but blew out their rival Friday night in a nice bounce back win.

Michigan State - Izzo is March vibes are just about here.

Virginia - Vibes are comebacks. Another double-digit comeback win yesterday, 3rd of the year. Year of Living Dangerously. Usually, the final vibe is bad.

Alabama - Won 6 in a row after being blown out by Florida, so vibing in the right direction. Terrible defense will crush the vibe but enjoying the ride at the moment.

Vandy - Teetering after back-to-back losses. 8-6 after the calendar turned. Vibes feel like doom.

What is Syracuse?

Syracuse is currently on the way to another loss to a Tobacco Road team. A loss today would drop Syracuse to 15-13 overall and 6-9 in the ACC. With no avenue to the NCAA Tournament without an unlikely ACC Tourney win, it begs the question, what is Syracuse?

This is Adrian Autry’s third and likely last season as the head coach of Syracuse. Replacing a legend is never easy but the decline of Syracuse began before Autry got the job.

Since joining the ACC in the 2013-14 season, Syracuse will have missed the tournament more than they have made it. In fact, in the decade Jim Boeheim coached in the ACC, the Orange missed the tournament as much as they made it. In their last 5 seasons in the Big East, the Orange made 4 Sweet 16’s and a Final 4.

There are a lot of poster child’s for the negative consequences of chasing football dollars. The Orange have Pitt joining them in the ACC as schools miscast in a league. Is that the reason? It’s easy to say it is but given UConn’s ascension back to the top of the college basketball world after returning to the Big East, it is worth asking.

Autry is almost certainly going to be fired. It’s not a lack of talent acquisition. HS recruiting and transfer portal recruiting hasn’t been elite but it’s been good enough they should be much better than they have been. Gerry McNamara will be a popular name. Longtime assistant and playing legend, he is the head coach at Siena and they’ve been very improved over his first season. The question that will be asked, do you want to go to that same well as you did with Autry.

The other name will be Josh Schertz, a Brooklyn native. If he wants to leave St. Louis, he’ll have his pick of jobs. Given the jobs to likely to be open, this might be the best depending on the dominoes. The coaching chops are there but he hasn’t been somewhere that requires high level recruiting. Of course, he can alleviate that with top assistants but it will be a legit concern.

A lot of things have lead Syracuse to this point. A legend head coach who lost his fastball at the end of his tenure. Misfire on the replacement. Chasing football dollars lost their basketball identity. The days of relevancy over. They’ll need to hit on this hire or they’ll be Nebraska football. Wandering aimlessly trying to recapture long lost glory.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Howard/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Southeast Missouri
1. Duke  vs  16. Merrimack
1. Houston  vs  16. LIU
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Florida  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Michigan St.  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Virginia  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Alabama  vs  13. Liberty
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. St. John's  vs  12. High Point
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. Belmont
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Yale
5. BYU  vs  12. South Florida
6. Louisville  vs  11. TCU
6. Arkansas  vs  11. UCLA/New Mexico
6. North Carolina  vs  11. Santa Clara/Missouri
6. N.C. State  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. Villanova  vs  10. Georgia
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Wisconsin  vs  10. Auburn
7. Utah St.  vs  10. UCF
8. Clemson  vs  9. SMU
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. Saint Mary's
8. Iowa  vs  9. Miami Fl
8. Indiana  vs  9. Texas

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - USC

First Four Out - Ohio St.

Next Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Syracuse

Also Considered - West Virginia

Contenders and Pretenders Part 4

 Well, I spent about 30 minutes this morning typing out today's article and when I came back to my computer it was gone.  It today's computer environment I can't believe it didn't auto-save or auto-recover but here we are.  I'm not retyping the whole thing so here's a summary:

Duke - Contender but I have guard concerns.  Saturday vs Michigan will be a great look to see if they are Final Four ceiling or title ceiling

Illinois - Defense isn't good enough to win a title but a win at USC with Wagler struggling says they can get to the Final Four.

Florida - the Florida hype train is in full effect.  Can't just ignore the first 10 games because they look unstoppable now.  I'm still concerned about the guards but they can contend.

Tuesday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Morgan St./Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. NJIT/Merrimack
1. Duke  vs  16. LIU
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Houston  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Florida  vs  14. South Alabama
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Michigan St.  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hawaii
4. St. John's  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. BYU  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. South Florida
6. Arkansas  vs  11. TCU
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Santa Clara/Georgia
6. Alabama  vs  11. USC/San Diego St.
6. Saint Louis  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. Villanova  vs  10. UCLA
7. Wisconsin  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Clemson  vs  10. UCF
7. N.C. State  vs  10. SMU
8. Utah St.  vs  9. Saint Mary's
8. Kentucky  vs  9. Miami Fl
8. Iowa  vs  9. Texas
8. Auburn  vs  9. Indiana

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - New Mexico

First Four Out - Missouri

First Four Out - Ohio St.

Next Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Syracuse

Also Considered - West Virginia

Villanova

The Big East isn’t very good this year. UConn and St. John’s sit atop the league. UConn is Final 4 good, St. John’s is rolling but has warts too ugly to overlook. Third in the league is a familiar face that has bounced back from the Kyle Neptune experience. The Villanova Wildcats and Kevin Willard are looking to get back to the tournament and are in good shape to do so.

The Wildcats are currently 26th in KenPom. 31st in offense and 32nd in defense, this team screams being somewhere in the 7-10 area of seeding. Their best win is a “neutral court” win in Milwaukee over UW-Madison. After that, sweeping the season series against Seton Hall are their next two best wins. A home date this weekend with UConn awaits and a trip to MSG against the Johnnies next weekend gives them two more chances at good wins.

The roster is a nice blend of transfers and freshmen. Redshirt frosh Matthew Hodge and silky smooth PG frosh Acaden Lewis look like classic Nova players. Big man Duke Brennan from Grand Canyon provides the muscle and Devin Askew from Long Beach State has added a threat from 3.

In the Four Factors, Nova doesn’t do anything exceptionally. They’re a weak defensive rebounding team and do not get to the foul line. This isn’t a sleeper to make a deep run. What it is, is a building block. Assuming they keep Lewis and Hodge along with junior guard, Tyler Perkins, they’ll have pieces to build around.

I wouldn’t expect them to make the second weekend. I do expect them to be much better in 2027 and a threat in the league. Whether Willard has Jay Wright’s ceiling as a coach, I doubt, but he is at a place that can and wants to compete for national titles. He no longer has any excuses. It will be fascinating to watch play out.

One Month to Go!

 We are one month to Selection Sunday so now is a good time to predict the Final Four again.  Going back my preseason Final Four were Michigan, Houston, Duke, and Texas Tech.  That’s not bad and I would have stuck with the first three for sure but after Texas Tech knocked off Arizona last night it might make sense to keep them in as well.  However, I’m not going to let one game sway me back to my original Four yet. 

Thinking through the season so far, I think there is a large range of teams that can make the Final Four and after last season, where all #1’s made it, I think there will be a surprise or two.  As I mentioned I have Duke, Michigan, and Houston as 3 of my 4 and those are 2 1seeds and 1 2 seed.  I currently have Texas Tech as a 4 seed, but I can see them replacing Michigan State at the 3 line in the next bracket.  That would be a minor upset as a 3 seed but, I’m not going there now.  St. John’s has been hot lately and Florida is everybody’s darling at the moment.  I can make a case for the Gators but once again that’s an easy way out.  Instead, I’m going to go out on a limb and lean on my ACC bias and select Virginia as my 4^th Final Four team.  I like what I see out of them and it’s great to see actual basketball being played at Virigina instead of the garbage that the previous coach tried to shove down our throats.  This might be a reach, but I don’t want to be like everybody else and take the same 4 out of 5 teams as my prediction (most people sprinkle in Florida or Connecticut.

Final Four 1 Month Out:

Duke
Michigan
Houston
Virginia

Sparty

Izzo is March is one of our favorite phrases, isn’t it? Brian pointed out Matt Norlander called Michigan State the 2nd most likely team to win a national title out of the Big 18. They proceeded to blown off the court by UW-Madison. Are they the 2nd most likely team to win a national title do the Big 18? No, no they’re not.

They’ve now lost 3 of 4, which includes a double digit loss at home to Michigan and a loss at Minnesota to go with the blowout loss in Madison. Izzo better be March because he isn’t February at the moment.

They got as high as number 4 in KenPom following a blowout win over a terrible Maryland team on January 24th. They also briefly had the best defense in the land. Since then, they’ve given up 79 to Rutgers in a 73-possession game, 76 to the Gophers in 53-possession game, 83 to Michigan in a 73-possession game, 82 to Illinois in a 71 possession game and them 92 in a 68 possession game. The defense has flatlined since that blowout win over Maryland.

The offense has never been good enough to win a title, hovering in the 40’s most of Big 18 play. The offense isn’t terrible other than turning it over way too much. A great rebounding team, the offense thrives off 2nd chance possessions.

Jeremy Fears is this year’s dirtbag Big 18 player. Fears is a good PG, they type of a player the media likes because of gaudy assist stats. A terrible shooter who hunts fouls which works for him because he 90% from the line but only 25% from 3. Expect to hear a lot of announcers to push the redemption narrative like Jason Benetti did last Saturday night.

The schedule includes road trips to Indiana, Michigan and Purdue. A 3-3 finish is possible which would mean a 4-6 finish in regular season play. Don’t know that’ll happen but this isn’t a team that is the second most likely to end the Big 18 title drought.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Morgan St./Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Merrimack
1. Duke  vs  16. LIU
1. Houston  vs  16. Navy
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Kansas  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Nebraska  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Florida  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Purdue  vs  13. Hawaii
4. St. John's  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. BYU  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. South Florida
6. Arkansas  vs  11. Missouri
6. Tennessee  vs  11. San Diego St./Saint Mary's
6. Alabama  vs  11. USC/Miami Fl
6. Saint Louis  vs  11. Santa Clara
7. Villanova  vs  10. Texas
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Clemson  vs  10. Georgia
7. N.C. State  vs  10. Texas A&M
8. Utah St.  vs  9. UCLA
8. Iowa  vs  9. UCF
8. Wisconsin  vs  9. SMU
8. Auburn  vs  9. Indiana

First Four Out - Ohio St.

First Four Out - New Mexico

First Four Out - TCU

First Four Out - California

Next Four Out - Boise St.

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Nevada

Also Considered - Tulsa

Utah State

It’s Aggie time. Utah State currently has a 1/2 game lead in the last year of the Mountain West as we know it. They’re up to 25th in KenPom, 27th on offense and 39th on defense. Jerrod Calhoun is the coach and given his background, a guy who Cincinnati and Ohio State might give a looksy should they make a move this off-season.

With 57.8% real shooting, 13th in the nation, the offense is quite good. They’re 8th in 2-pt shooting % and 80th in 3-pt shooting. The highest volume 3-point shooters are all 37% or better, so while 80th overall isn’t great, the core shooters are good. You’d like to see better turnover numbers but they do assist on 59% of makes. Their big folly on offense is weak FT shooting. They get to the line at an ok number but they’re 239th in FT % shooting.

Defensively, they’re 18th in turnover % and 59th in real shooting % defense. That mix is pretty good. Their weakness is they foul too much. They’re 269th in FTA/FGA. They’re also mediocre on the glass. Would be nice to see those 2 areas cleaned up.

MJ Collins paces them with 18ppg. Mason Falslev averages 16ppg and 5.7 boards per game while shooting 39.5% from 3 and getting 2.2 steals per game. Drake Allen and Elijah Perryman run the point and are quite adept at it. Allen averages 5 assists per game along with 2 steals per game. If you like guard play, this team has it.

The non-con wasn’t great with their best win over VCU and a loss to USF. It’s not a bad non-con schedule, they’re just not going to get anyone from the Big 5 to play them, so they scheduled a good amount of solid mid-majors. They play Memphis this Saturday. That’s a good scheduled game you’d think but the Tigers aren’t holding up their end of the donkey.

Brian has them on the 8-9 line and it doesn’t seem likely they get much higher without running the table. There’s enough parity in the league that’s unlikely but they’re worth monitoring should they get up to the 6 or 7 line.

Final Four Contender OR Pretender Part 3

 

Connecticut – Uconn just took a loss to St. John’s last Friday night so now seems like a good time to talk about them.  Their offense efficiency according to KenPom is below what you would like from a title contender, sitting at 27 but overall they are 8^th.  Torvik and the NET also have them slotted at 8 and both losses are against Quad 1 opponents.  The early season loss to Arizona was without 2 starters and again, it was against Arizona.  I’m still high on the Huskies even in a barren Big East.

Verdict: Contender...for now

Kansas – How can you actually make a prediction about Kansas with Darryn Peterson in and out of the lineup?  Hard to make a guess when you don’t know who is going to be on the court and who’s not.  What I do know is Peterson, while the best player in college, is 100% managing his playing time in an effort to get to the NBA healthy and get that rookie contract.  Do you know what players who do that in college do when they get a rookie contract?  They manage their playing time until they get an extension.  And when they get an extension it’s the same behavior until they get a max-contract.  And by then they have a label of a player not interested in winning.  I also question whether he loves the game.  Super talent and the NBA will love him but he will frustrate every franchise he plays for.

Verdict: They should allow players to go directly to the NBA.  And Kansas is a pretender but I’m impressed with how they’ve played with this circus.

Michigan State – Tom Izzo this, Tom Izzo that.  I keep hearing the podcasts talk about how he does so much with less talent than every other team year in and year out.  If he’s so good how come he constantly has “less talent” than other blue bloods?  He’s got 1 Final Four in 10 years and Jeremy Fears is AS dirty as Grayson Allen

Verdict:  Pretender and not making the 2^nd weekend

Tuesday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Morgan St./Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Merrimack
1. Duke  vs  16. LIU
1. Houston  vs  16. Navy
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
3. Florida  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hawaii
4. Purdue  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. North Carolina  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. High Point
5. St. John's  vs  12. Belmont
5. BYU  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. Tulsa
6. Arkansas  vs  11. Missouri
6. Tennessee  vs  11. California/Saint Mary's
6. Alabama  vs  11. USC/Miami Fl
6. Clemson  vs  11. Santa Clara
7. Villanova  vs  10. Texas
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Wisconsin
7. Iowa  vs  10. Indiana
8. N.C. State  vs  9. UCLA
8. Utah St.  vs  9. Georgia
8. Texas A&M  vs  9. UCF
8. SMU  vs  9. Auburn

First Four Out - Ohio St.

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Oklahoma St.

First Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Boise St.

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Nevada

Also Considered - George Mason

The Contenders

Asked last night who my Final 4 was and I was slow to respond. Probably because I always want to think of some unlikely Final 4 team. Yes, that could happen but let’s take a look at the real title contenders. One of these teams is likely to win it all. All are Top-20 offense and defenses.

Arizona - At a loss of superlatives at the moment. Largely steamrolling opponents. Just don’t do anything poorly. Barring injury, anything short of a regional final will be a massive disappointment.

Michigan - Currently up double-digits with 7 minutes left in Columbus. Well-balanced team that has responded to its hiccups after the calendar turned to 2026. Will be battle tested.

Duke - Heartbreaker last night. Lack of another offensive option was exposed last night late. Bit discouraging to see that UNC defense do that to them. Final 4 good but don’t see a title.

Houston - Offense, shooting in particular worries me but it has been gradually improving through Big XIIIII play. Still plays good defense. If the shooting continues to improve, they’ll be a legit title threat. If it stalls or regresses, that’ll be their doom.

Iowa State - Great response after some rough play. They can win it all. FT shooting is bad. Don’t get to the line and when they do, they’re not good but with the 7th best real shooting %, will it matter?

Florida - Don’t look now, but the defending champs are squarely in the mix. Can’t shoot the 3, though. Probably limits them from defending. Let’s see how that looks as we get into March.

Vandy - Fading? The defense is up and down. Not a threat but like I said a few weeks back, they’re building something in Nashville.

Iowa - Huh. Top 20 d and o. The defense is built upon turning teams over. 116th real shooting % defense isn’t good enough. It’s built upon teams missing 3’s, so not probably even that good. Still, seeing them here is something. Sweet 16 feels like the ceiling but given the Fran years, what an accomplishment that would be.

Others: 

Illinois - Last night’s loss exposed the question about them, the defense. It’s 22nd in KenPom, so that’s good but given up 85 points, even in overtime, to Michigan State isn’t a good look. A Final 4 run won’t surprise me but someone will out score them.

UConn - 306th in tempo, 27th in offense. Great defense can carry them. Problem on offense is free throw numbers across the board. Bit sloppy with the ball, too. Fascinating team to watch in March. Could do just about anything. Get upset early, make a run to the Final 4.

Purdue - Elite offense, good defense. Not a title contender but a Final 4 is doable. Head to Nebraska and Iowa and host Michigan in the next 3 games. Let’s see how the defense performs in those games

St. John’s - On a 9-game winning streak. Hovering around the top-20 in both offense and defense. So-so shooting team. Get a lot of second chance opportunities and to the line. Bullies on the offensive glass, terrible on the defensive glass. Sweet 16 ceiling, imo.

Virginia - Probably not. Sweet 16 is the ceiling. Again, that would be a great season given expectations.

Monitoring: Kentucky and UNC

College Basketball Rivalries

Thinking about the Carolina-Duke game today, it dawned on me, the college basketball rivalries feel dead to me outside this game. Am I right? I’m not sure but I’ll write my way through my thinking.

I think Duke and UNC are the starting point. For 30+ years, this has been the ultimate rivalry. Great teams, big games, true hate. Duke and UNC also engendered in ACC opponents a sense of rivalry, even if it was one-sided in nature. As the goliaths of the ACC, beating either was a big deal. Maryland games against these teams was must-see-TV. 

Mentioning Maryland brings me to what has probably caused the biggest decline in the rivalry games, conference realignment. Maryland’s hatred of Tobacco Road can’t be recaptured in the Big 18. Think UCLA-Arizona. Maybe not the most notorious rivalry, those were still big games out west.

The Big East has this problem as well. The entirety of the league had a common enemy in Syracuse. As the league broke up, one common theme emerged, everyone was sad to see the Orange leave because the members all liked beating them. Georgetown’s trip to the abyss hasn’t helped but a decade into the new league, it lacks the juice of the Orange.

That’s the ACC’s issue, too. As a smaller league, Tobacco Road was the enemy. Now? It’s a mishmash of schools dotted across the landscape. Beating Duke and UNC still means something but what about the other dozen + teams extending from the Bay Area to Dallas to Miami to Upper NY? 

The Big XIIIII still has Kansas. Beating the Jayhawks is still a badge of honor in the league but they don’t have a Missouri to get their blood boiling. Maybe Arizona-Kansas can become a thing but I doubt it. 

I thing the Big 18 might still have some bad blood rivalries. Michigan-Michigan State hate each other. Indiana-Purdue-Illinois show signs of redeveloping a true hatred of each other. Unfortunately, the league is so bloated, there is way too many “shoulder shrug” matchups. 

I have a lot of old man complaints about college sports and understand the leagues do not care about the fans. This is the one that bugs me the most. Maybe after decades of matchups, things can develop but I doubt the radical reconstruction of college sports allow it to naturally happen. That’s too bad. Good sports hate make it better for the fans, respectfully, of course. While alive in football, it feels much different in college hoops.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. North Carolina Central/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Illinois  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Houston  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Kansas  vs  14. Austin Peay
3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Florida  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Purdue  vs  13. Liberty
4. Purdue  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Virginia  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. St. John's  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. Tulsa
6. Arkansas  vs  11. Santa Clara
6. Clemson  vs  11. New Mexico/Miami Fl
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Indiana/Ohio St.
6. Alabama  vs  11. Saint Mary's
7. Villanova  vs  10. Texas
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Kentucky  vs  10. USC
7. N.C. State  vs  10. UCLA
8. UCF  vs  9. Georgia
8. Iowa  vs  9. Wisconsin
8. Texas A&M  vs  9. Utah St.
8. SMU  vs  9. Auburn

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - Oklahoma St.

First Four Out - Missouri

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - California

Next Four Out - TCU

Next Four Out - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Baylor

Also Considered - Akron

Also Considered - George Mason

Final Four Contender OR Pretender Part 2

 

Iowa State – Outside of a two-game slide where the Cyclones lost at Kansas and at Cincinnati Iowa State has been riding high.  Major metrics say this team is a threat to win the title and I agree.  Top 5 in the NET, Torvik, and KenPom say all that needs to be said from the computers.  As for the eye test; they pass that too.

Verdict: Contender

Houston – Year after year Houston remains in the title contender conversation.  Last year they made it to the championship game, perhaps this year is the year they win it all.  The Cougars only have 2 loses, at Texas Tech and on a neutral court versus Tennessee.  They are top 10 in all performance metrics although KenPom has them predicted to take 4 more losses this season.  I don’t see that happening and with their schedule, going 2-2 in that time frame is a win.  Kingston Fleming is the real deal.

Verdict:  Contender

BYU – BYU has lost 3 of their last 4 but still remain 15^th at KenPom and the NET.  Torvik has them at 27 and I have to lean with Torvik on this one.  Their defense doesn’t seem to track high enough to make a Final Four run and I actually don’t see them making the second weekend.  AJ Dybansta is going to be a stud in the NBA but a good 13 seed or 5 seed in the second round is going to drive them into fast stupid shots and the upset will hit.

Verdict:  Pretender

Tuesday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Maryland Eastern Shore/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. Vermont/Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Navy
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Austin Peay
2. Illinois  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Houston  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Kansas  vs  14. Troy
3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Florida  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Purdue  vs  13. Liberty
4. Purdue  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. BYU  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. St. John's  vs  12. Tulsa
5. Louisville  vs  12. Yale
6. Arkansas  vs  11. San Diego St.
6. Clemson  vs  11. Seton Hall/UCLA
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Indiana/Texas
6. Alabama  vs  11. Miami Fl
7. SMU  vs  10. Georgia
7. Villanova  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. USC
7. UCF  vs  10. New Mexico
8. Kentucky  vs  9. Wisconsin
8. Iowa  vs  9. Saint Mary's
8. Texas A&M  vs  9. Utah St.
8. N.C. State  vs  9. Auburn

First Four Out - Santa Clara

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - Ohio St.

First Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - Missouri

Next Four Out - George Mason

Next Four Out - California

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Butler

Final Four Contender or Pretender Part 1

 

Arizona – Being the number one seed without question at this point in the season is dead give away that Arizona is going to be a Contender but let’s look at the numbers and be quick about this team.  Number 2 at KenPom with top 5 offense and defense is a great start.  Bart Torvik has them 2 as well.  They are undefeated with a NCAA leading 9 Quad 1 wins.

Verdict: Contender

Michigan – Two easy ones to start.  Arizona sits #2 at KenPom and Torvik while Michigan sits at #1.  They do have a loss to Wisconsin which counts as a Quad 2 at the moment but that’s the only blemish.  And, let’s be honest here, Wisconsin shot the lights out and probably Michigan probably wins that game 9 out of 10 times.  I still don’t trust Elliot Cadeau but that could be my Carolina bias shining through.  I had them in the Final with my pre-season picks and I see no reason to change that.

Verdict: Contender

Nebraska – Two losses in a row never looks good but they did play 2 top 10 teams in Michigan and Illinois.  The metrics for the Cornhuskers are solid with most numbers falling in the top 20.  The lone exception is KP Offense which ranks 26^th.  On top of that they don’t get to the free throw line very often, which was evident in the last two losses where they shot a total of 9 free throws.  This is a good story for the mayor but a Final Four run may be asking a bit too much.

Verdict: Pretender