Sunday, March 20, 2016

In Defense of the Pac-12

One of the overwhelming narratives coming this week will be the disappointing showing by the Pac-12 this week. Yes, it wasn't good but it shouldn't have been unexpected. I sounded the alarm after the selection show and throughout the week. The committee grossly over seeded the teams and in one case, picked a team who was arguably the worst 7-seed in history.

Oregon - As of this, still alive and should handle St. Joe's. Entered as 9th overall in KenPom, probably not a 1-seed in expected results. Favorable potential matchup against Duke should get them to a regional final. A Final 4 berth would change the narrative for the league a tad.

Utah- Seeded 3rd in the Midwest, they entered the tournament 29th in KenPom and drew the 27th team in Gonzaga. The 'Zags were an 11-seed. Utah was over seeded and drew an incredibly tough 11-seed. They also would have been underdogs against Seton Hall. No shame losing as they were projected as a 1-win team but they way they lost adds fuel to the fire the Pac-12 was overrated.

California- Cal entered the tournament a trendy pick to make a deep run. Some had them beating Kansas in the Sweet 16. That was ridiculous before the issues with their assistant coach Yann Hufnagel resigning and losing Ty Wallace to injury. They were 21 in KenPom before the dance and would have had a pick 'me game against Maryland. Losing to Hawaii is arguably the worst loss for the league.

Arizona- By the numbers, they were the conference's 2nd best team entering the tournament 16th in KenPom. For whatever reason, they never seemed to put it all together and then had a terrible draw in Wichita State who was one of the best 11-seeds in history. At worst, this was a second round game. Like Utah though, getting blown out was unexpected and doesn't help the league image.

Oregon State- They were a 7-seed. Someone between them, USC and Colorado had to be, I suppose but they were 60th in KenPom. In their region, they should have been an 11 seed by the numbers. Any win would have been gravy.

USC- The Trojans were 49th in KenPom. They also had to travel to Raleigh to play Providence. The Friars were 46th in KenPom, so it was basically a coin flip game. That's how it played out. 

Colorado- Colorado was 55th in KenPom entering the tournament and UConn was 28th. UConn was the clear favorite.

In conclusion, the league was the underdog in 4 of their opening round games using KenPom. Couple that with Cal's issues and you have the recipe for 5 quick losses. 

The league also had bad luck in opponents. As I stated, two teams ran into 2 of the best 11 seeds in recent memory. Matchups and luck definitely played a part in the Pac-12's dismal showing.

Ultimately, perception becomes reality and the league will be mocked for their showing in 2016. Oregon can ease that with a Final Four run and they have a path.  It wasn't a great week for the league but it was still a good, competitive league in 2015-16. March isn't always fair.

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