Blue Bloods

What’s a blue blood in college basketball? You can debate that however you like, but since Duke won its first title in 1991, we’ve had 32 tournaments. Here’s who has won the most in that stretch:

T1: Duke 5 (91, 92, 01, 10, 15); UConn 5 (99, 04, 11, 14, 23)

3. UNC 4 (93, 05, 09, 17)

4. Kentucky 3 (96, 98, 12)

Over half the tournaments have been won by these 3 schools. Blue bloods with a special shout-out to Kansas who hs titles in 08 & 22, runner-ups in 91, 03 & 12 and 8 Final Four appearances in that stretch. 

Those are your modern day blue bloods. 

Elite Eight Sunday

After a solid 2-6 Sweet 16, to hell with KenPom:

South: 5. San Diego State vs 6. Creighton 

All year, Creighton hovered in the magic KenPom zone as a profile of a national champ. Well, to hell with KenPom

San Diego State 66 Creighton 65

Midwest: 2. Texas vs. 5. Miami 

As I was fake golfing last night, I overheard badger fans in the bay next to me talking about how they could have won it all. Idiots.

Texas 78 Miami 72

Elite Eight: Saturday

East: 3. Kansas State vs. 8. Florida Atlantic

When I was younger, I had this formula where I’d pick Final 4 participants based on history of what seed historically came out of regions. The East used to produce the most 1-seeds. Well, suck on that stupid, young Eric.

Kansas State had 5 turnovers against Michigan State. They’re 263rd in the nation in offensive turnover %. For all the talk of Izzo is March, I’d have figured out a way to force a team that turns it over a lot, to you know, turn it over.

Florida Atlantic took advantage of a Rick Barnes team. Whatever the reason is, Barnes coached teams loose in March because the offense breaks bad. I’ll say this, though, FAU is top-30 KenPom defense and offense. I think the committee owes it to teams like FAU more respect. I don’t care what team you are. 28-3 regular season record in a top-10 league deserves way more respect.

Amazing this is the regional final at MSG. Tickets are probably pretty easy to get.  If I was there, I’d buy them because this could be a great game. KenPom likes FAU by 1. Guess it’s FAU 69 Kansas State 68

West: 3. Gonzaga vs. 4. UConn

UConn has come out of the West 3 of the 4 times they’ve won national championships. In 1999, they shattered Cinderella’s shoe. What does that mean? Nothing.

UConn’s demolition of Arkansas was as impressive as anything we’ve seen this tournament. They looked a lot like the Huskies of early season. It’s also a reminder to probably not overreact to a bad stretch of a season. If a team has a great, sustained stretch, barring injury, that’s what that team is capable of.

As for the Zags, I’d rather focus on Mick Cronin. At one point in the first half last night, Dan Bonner noticed Cronin telling his team to slow down as they were running all over the hapless Zag defense. That was the point I knew Gonzaga could win should they keep UCLA within distance in the first half. UCLA needed to bury Gonzaga like UConn buried Arkansas. Instead, Cronin was so concerned with playing within his system, he almost certainly lost the opportunity. His near future at UCLA with the guys he’s losing becomes interesting.

The Zags defense last night gets buried by UConn. Saturday is a new day, however. They also dropped 33 in the first half against a good UCLA defense which would be pretty damn good had they not given up 46. The 46 they scored in the 2nd half is even more impressive. The nation’s number 1 offense needs to do that again. It should be a thriller. I like UConn 80 Gonzaga 78

Sweet 16: The Midwest

Thank you, Midwest region.

1. Houston vs. 5. Miami

Kelvin Sampson has done impressive work at Houston. Same with Jim Larranaga at Miami. Houston is a heavy 8-point Ken Pom favorite. Having the 8th best offense and 4th best defense will do that. Doesn’t hurt that Miami’s 108th ranked defense is a problem for the Hurricanes.

Miami’s offense on the other hand, is the 11th best KenPom offense. They’re not a fast-paced team, so Houston’s methodical style won’t bother them greatly. Miami has the nation’s 23rd best effective fg%. They shoot the ball well from 2 and 3, 35th and 39th respectively in the nation. However, Houston has the nation’s 2nd best defensive effective fg%.

Houston’s offense is efficient, but hardly dynamic. 71st I’m effective fg% is fine, 165th in 3pt% is ok. What sets them apart is their offensive rebounding % which is 4th best on the nation at 37%. They extend possessions to make up for what they may lack in explosiveness. While Miami is also a good offensive rebounding team, they’re just average on the defensive glass. 

Miami has good guards and that’ll help neutralize Houston to an extent but the difference is Jarace Walker for the Cougars. Houston 63 Miami 58

2. Texas vs 3. Xavier 

Xavier is back in the Sweet 16, as is Sean Miller. Rodney Terry has done a great job getting Texas here as well despite a turbulent December. This could be one of the better games of the Sweet 16.

Texas still profiles as a national title contender. They’re 15th and 10th in KenPom offense and defense respectively. They’re 5th overall. X is 15th overall but a 64th rated defense is the red flag in this game.

Xavier has two defensive deficiencies. They don’t force turnovers and teams shoot the 3 ball well against them. Texas isn’t a great 3-point shooting team, however, and they don’t turn it over much. 

On the defensive side of things, Texas force a lot of turnovers and has the nation’s 57th best defensive effective fg%. They do not rebound well, 219th on defensive boards and they put teams on the line. They’re 240th in FTA/FGA. X doesn’t necessarily do those things great on offense but they do them well enough. They’re also the 3rd best 3-point shooting team in the nation.

I had Texas in the Final 4 but I sort of like X here. Xavier 81 Texas 78

Sweet 16: The South

Good job, Arizona, Virginia, Missouri & Baylor.

1. Alabama vs. 5. San Diego State

Good to see SDSU make a Sweet 16. We forget how good they were in 2020. They’re also real good this year. While Alabama is 2 in KenPom, SDSU is 14. They’re a legit Sweet 16 team. Can they win?

There’s a path to victory. They have the 4th best 3-point defense in the nation. Teams only shoot 28.7% from deep. Bama loves shooting the 3. They’re 8th in attempts in 3PA/FGA. While they shoot a lot, they’re middle of the road in overall 3-point shooting %. It’ll be imperative the Aztecs keep the Tide off the offensive glass. SDSU is 54th in defensive rebounding %. That’s strong.

The concern for the Aztecs is the offense is prone to rock fighting. 70th in KenPom, they’re taking on the nation’s 3rd best defense. Teams don’t shoot well typically against Alabama as evidenced by the fact they’re 3rd in 3pt fg% and 1st in 2pt fg% defense. Yeah, that’s a red flag for me for San Diego State.

San Diego State will need to muck it up but I think Alabama is too powerful for them and the offensive droughts SDSU have has me at Alabama 71 San Diego State 58

6. Creighton vs. 15. Princeton 

So, Princeton was certainly underseeded by the committee. The Ivy is 12th in KenPom conference rankings with a positive Adjusted EM, granted, small at +1.00. Losses to Delaware and Dartmouth crushed their net numbers. Still, let this be a lesson. An Ivy as a 15 should send off alarm bells in the future.

As for the game itself, Creighton is a heavy metrics favorite. Despite a wonky Big East season, they’re 12th in KenPom with the 23rd best offense and 13th best defense. Those are borderline national championship numbers and certainly Final Four good.

I’m trying to find something for Princeton that says they can win this game and all I got is, they just beat Arizona and Missouri, throw the numbers out. That said, I think Creighton is better than those two teams. One thing to keep in the back of your mind is, rumors are heavily circulating Gregg McDermott could be the next guy at Notre Dame. The team and him will have to answer those questions. Still, I’ll take Creighton 75 Princeton 60

Sweet 16: The West

The main event Thursday is out west. Even with the 1-seed at home, Arkansas has multiple NBA players. Whoever wins this region will have earned it.

4. UConn vs. 8. Arkansas

Arkansas is 19th in KenPom at the moment and a 6-point KenPom dog. UConn has all the earmarks of a national title contender despite a 4th place Big East finish.

Arkansas has a bad offense. They don’t shoot the 3 well at all and are 131st in effective fg%. They’re 23rd in getting to the line but 268th in FT%, so it’s a wash. UConn’s effective defensive fg% is 11th in the nation but they foul a it. They’re 319th in defensive FTA/FGA. The Hogs are going to get those FTs. If they shoot above average, there’s a chance to make hay.

On the offensive end for UConn, they’re 3rd in KenPom with the 53rd best effective FG% and 2nd in offensive rebounding %. Arkansas is slightly above average defensive rebounding team but not great. UConn should get extra possessions. 

Before the tourney, UConn had won 8 of 10 in the regular season and their loss in the BE Tournament was a tossup against Marquette. The Hogs lost 5 of 7, split in Nashville and beat Kansas without Bill Self. Give me UConn 70 Arkansas 64

2. UCLA vs. 3. Gonzaga

UCLA has the numbers of a possible champ but injury issues are mounting. Mick won’t let them run and the offense which I think could be more dynamic has enough stretches that even a weak defensive team like Gonzaga can do enough to win.

UCLA is 21st in KenPom offense. They limit turnovers and get to the glass but are 144th in effective FG%. The Zags don’t force a lot of turns but clean the defensive glass. The concern is their defensive effective fg% which is 245th in the nation. That’s hard to look past.

It’s hard to look past until you get to the offense which is the best in America because they don’t turn it over, 12th in turnover % and have the nation’s best offensive effective fg% at 58.3. To top it off, they’re above average in offensive rebounding and getting to the line. Just to add to the pile, they’re 2nd in 2pt fg% and 10th in 3pt fg%.

Of course, UCLA is 2nd in defensive effective fg%. UCLA does everything well on defense except maybe rebound and even that shouldn’t be a concern. What gives in the rubber match between these West Coast powers? I can’t get past the Zags defensive deficiency and think UCLA has enough in the tank to get this one but if they see guys fall out due to injury during the game, all bets are off but as is? Give me UCLA 72 Gonzaga 71 in another classic

Sweet 16: The East

Back in the real world this week after an opening weekend that began with so much promise and then crashed in spectacular fashion. Let’s make some picks.

7. Michigan State vs. 3. Kansas State

Let’s get the disclaimer out of the way, Michigan State is gross. Tom Izzo is gross. The deification of college coaches is gross. This game is gross.

KenPom calls this a tossup and it is. Neither is separated by much according to fancy stats but this should send alarm bells off. KState is 285th in offensive turnover % and 241st in defensive rebounding %. Sparty isn’t great at forcing turnovers or offensive rebounding but if you have to pick which team wins this battle, it’s usually Michigan State.

Michigan State has been prone to real dumb basketball at times this year and Izzo’s stubbornness almost cost him yesterday when he auto benched Hoggard for the final 8 minutes of the first half. Also, despite the Izzo is March stuff, his team also lost to a bad Ohio State team in the Big Ten quarters. 

If K-State controls turnovers, they can win.  If they turn it over a lot like they have throughout the course of the season, they lose. Markquis Nowell does have the look of a guy trying to become a legend. Well, this is your chance against one of the last big name teams left. It’s a tossup but those turnover numbers sway me to Michigan State 62 Kansas State 58

4. Tennessee vs. 9. Florida Atlantic

I have some thoughts on Tennessee’s approach this past Saturday. It was obvious they were going to play bully ball against Duke and it worked. I’m not sure it can work against a team playing with house money, however.

There is no questioning the Vols defense. It’s the best in the land. The offense, though, has dropped to 60 in KenPom. That’s not a legit title contender. Zak Zeigler’s injury seemed like a death blow but maybe a few games without him have forced them to embrace the defensive side and damn the torpedoes. It also helps having Santiago Vescovi play like an All-American, too.

FAU is solid and shoots the 3-well. Tennessee has the nation’s best 3-point defense. I think FAU has to be hot early and force Tennessee to make buckets. If the Vols defense is suffocating the Owls, they win pretty easily, albeit maybe not as aesthetically pretty. If FAU comes out blazing, things get interesting. My guess is, they don’t and that sways me to Tennessee 61 FAU 53