Rumors began circulating late last week that UConn would be returning to the Big East. Rumors like these had been floating on the inter webs for as long as the new Big East began play in 2014. While sensible from a basketball standpoint, it never seemed possible given the Huskies commitment to football.
UConn’s basketball fortunes had slid precipitously since winning the 2014 men’s title. Truth is, that title was as fluky as any we’ve seen. The Kevin Ollie era was a train wreck and Danny Hurley took over a program, that despite 4 titles in 15 years, needed a reboot.
As football drove them to the AAC, it never was a good fit for basketball. The AAC has schools with strong hoops pedigrees but none of them were ever as good as UConn nor were any a natural rival. Couple that with a terrible bottom of the league, apathy set in for the men’s program and while the women’s team was still as strong as ever, Gene Auriemma was pining for a return to the Big East. It remains to be seen if UConn can be an elite program like they were under Jim Calhoun, but a move to the Big East makes it more likely.
Money-wise, UConn takes a step back but exposure will be greater for them. The fan base, the basketball portion of it, are pumped. An arena that saw attendance slump is far likelier to be filled as classic rivals return. Selling kids on playing local opponents versus East Carolina helps as well. For hoops, there is no downside. As for football, well, they’ve been the worst program in the nation the last two years. Would staying in the American correct that at some point? I’m not sure the ceiling for UConn football and things get harder moving forward.
The concern amongst some fans of Big East schools is, UConn would bolt as soon as a Big XII or ACC came calling. I don’t disagree with that. I don’t think that should be a concern. Truth is, every league member would bolt if they get that offer. The ACC isn’t adding UConn in the near future. I believe the Big XII will expand sooner than later but it’s not going to be UConn. I think this argument is a non-starter.
Ultimately, this is good for UConn Olympic sports and the Big East. While UConn has scuffled the last half decade, they’re still a national brand. Basketball put them on the map. Basketball put the Big East on the map. It makes too much sense. The league keeps its round-robin schedule as it expands to 20 games. The 20 game conference schedule matches what other leagues are doing. The fit is natural and one league expansion that makes sense.
Monday, June 24, 2019
Monday, April 1, 2019
Sunday, March 31, 2019
Why This Virginia Team Broke Through
At the beginning of January, I said this wasn’t a typical Virginia team. They not only played slow, but they scored as well. To me, they looked like the two Badger Final 4 teams. They have a couple of NBA players and others than can score. Fast forward to last night and after the game, local media went after Pat Forde who wrote a scathing article about “Bennett Ball” after they got smoked by UMBC in the most embarrassing lost in tournament history. “Bennett Ball” can win in March and by proxy, Wisconsin had made the Final 4. But, the truth lies somewhere else. System and coach or players? Let’s dive in.
I put together some basic numbers here, comparing the tournament teams under Bennett at UVA (it also includes the ‘13 NIT season). What does it show?
2019: 71.3 ppg (192nd); 123.0 AdjustedO (2)
2018: 67.1 ppg (298th); 115.2 AdjustedO (30)
2017: 66.1 ppg (307th); 112.2 AdjustedO (50)
*2016: 71 ppg (209th); 120.6 AdjustedO (8)
2015: 65.4 ppg (211th); 115.6 AdjustedO (21)
2014: 66.4 ppg (274th); 114.8 AdjustedO (27)
2013: 64.2 ppg (242nd); 107.5 AdjustedO (83) NIT
2012: 62.5 ppg (274th); 105.2 AdjustedO (133)
*- Introduction of the :30 shot clock
The two best teams in March happen to be the two best offensive teams under Bennett, the ‘16 and ‘19 team. The ‘16 team were defeated in a shocker by Syracuse in the Elite 8 when they lost 68-62. Both squads were quite efficient on offense, top 10 and scored 70 points per game. PPG are a terrible way to judge an offense in most cases but I think this reinforces what we see on the court. They’re slow and methodical but can score. It also helps to have NBA players.
What happened in ‘18 was a shocker but they were certainly a 1-seed capable of putting up a stinker. I’d also argue 2018 didn’t have a lot of great teams, so they were over seeded compared to other seasons. Also, scoring was going to bite them at some point and it just happened in the opener.
The 2017 team lost in the Round of 32 to Florida, 65-39. In 2015, it was 61-54 to Michigan State. In 2014, it was 61-59 in the Sweet 16 to Michigan State again. Going back to their first tournament appearance under Bennett in 2012, Florida routed them 71-45. Truth is, “Bennett Ball” has had more flameouts than glory in March.
This reads as a criticism of “Bennett Ball” and in some ways, it is. But, it is a system that gets Virginia into the tournament and high seeds on a regular basis. Ultimately, though, you need the players to get you over the hump. Systems are nice, players are better. Pat Forde was too thick in his critiquing Virginia after UMBC but had valid points just like this run says it “works”. The system has been successful in positioning Virginia on a regular basis. Ultimately, the playmakers mean greater success. The coaches will get the ink this week but it takes the players to win more.
I put together some basic numbers here, comparing the tournament teams under Bennett at UVA (it also includes the ‘13 NIT season). What does it show?
2019: 71.3 ppg (192nd); 123.0 AdjustedO (2)
2018: 67.1 ppg (298th); 115.2 AdjustedO (30)
2017: 66.1 ppg (307th); 112.2 AdjustedO (50)
*2016: 71 ppg (209th); 120.6 AdjustedO (8)
2015: 65.4 ppg (211th); 115.6 AdjustedO (21)
2014: 66.4 ppg (274th); 114.8 AdjustedO (27)
2013: 64.2 ppg (242nd); 107.5 AdjustedO (83) NIT
2012: 62.5 ppg (274th); 105.2 AdjustedO (133)
*- Introduction of the :30 shot clock
The two best teams in March happen to be the two best offensive teams under Bennett, the ‘16 and ‘19 team. The ‘16 team were defeated in a shocker by Syracuse in the Elite 8 when they lost 68-62. Both squads were quite efficient on offense, top 10 and scored 70 points per game. PPG are a terrible way to judge an offense in most cases but I think this reinforces what we see on the court. They’re slow and methodical but can score. It also helps to have NBA players.
What happened in ‘18 was a shocker but they were certainly a 1-seed capable of putting up a stinker. I’d also argue 2018 didn’t have a lot of great teams, so they were over seeded compared to other seasons. Also, scoring was going to bite them at some point and it just happened in the opener.
The 2017 team lost in the Round of 32 to Florida, 65-39. In 2015, it was 61-54 to Michigan State. In 2014, it was 61-59 in the Sweet 16 to Michigan State again. Going back to their first tournament appearance under Bennett in 2012, Florida routed them 71-45. Truth is, “Bennett Ball” has had more flameouts than glory in March.
This reads as a criticism of “Bennett Ball” and in some ways, it is. But, it is a system that gets Virginia into the tournament and high seeds on a regular basis. Ultimately, though, you need the players to get you over the hump. Systems are nice, players are better. Pat Forde was too thick in his critiquing Virginia after UMBC but had valid points just like this run says it “works”. The system has been successful in positioning Virginia on a regular basis. Ultimately, the playmakers mean greater success. The coaches will get the ink this week but it takes the players to win more.
Saturday, March 30, 2019
Sunday Picks
Auburn vs. Kentucky
Auburn has looked impressive in routing Kansas and North Carolina. Kentucky has grinded to wins over Wofford and Houston, impressive in their own right.
During the regular season, Kentucky swept Auburn. Kentucky won by 2 at Auburn and blew them out at Rupp. I’m not sure that means much at this point. If Auburn turns Kentucky over and shoots like they have been, they can certainly win this game. I think Kentucky is a more disciplined defensive team than Auburn has seen so far and that’s the difference.
The Pick: Kentucky 68 Auburn 65
Duke vs. Michigan State
There’s some question whether Nick Ward plays. If he doesn’t, that’s going to be hard to overcome. Tre Jones won’t shoot as well in this game and Cassius Winston will be a problem for him but if he protects the ball and facilitates, that will be enough.
Michigan State’s physicality will be an issue for Duke, though it won’t intimidate them. Duke just can’t afford foul trouble. Izzo belongs in jail.
The Pick: Duke 71 Michigan State 66
Auburn has looked impressive in routing Kansas and North Carolina. Kentucky has grinded to wins over Wofford and Houston, impressive in their own right.
During the regular season, Kentucky swept Auburn. Kentucky won by 2 at Auburn and blew them out at Rupp. I’m not sure that means much at this point. If Auburn turns Kentucky over and shoots like they have been, they can certainly win this game. I think Kentucky is a more disciplined defensive team than Auburn has seen so far and that’s the difference.
The Pick: Kentucky 68 Auburn 65
Duke vs. Michigan State
There’s some question whether Nick Ward plays. If he doesn’t, that’s going to be hard to overcome. Tre Jones won’t shoot as well in this game and Cassius Winston will be a problem for him but if he protects the ball and facilitates, that will be enough.
Michigan State’s physicality will be an issue for Duke, though it won’t intimidate them. Duke just can’t afford foul trouble. Izzo belongs in jail.
The Pick: Duke 71 Michigan State 66
Friday, March 29, 2019
Saturday Picks
West Region: Gonzaga vs. Texas Tech
KenPom’s top offense takes on KenPom’s top defense. Gonzaga is the offense, Texas Tech is the defense. Did we learn anything last night? I think enough where we can make an educated pick.
The Zags took on a Seminoles team that came in with swag and confidence. They eviscerated them. FSU got close at a point in the second half and the Zags never looked close to breaking. And they did it on both sides of the ball.
Texas Tech and Michigan took turns in the first half disgracing the sport before Texas Tech found a few buckets. They rolled in the second half overwhelming Michigan on both sides of the ball. Unlike Michigan, I can’t see the Zags turning it over as much and missing that many baskets. Truth is, Gonzaga is light years better than Michigan. That’s not a slam at Texas Tech, that’s praise for Gonzaga,
The Pick: Gonzaga 70 Texas Tech 59
South Region: Virginia vs. Purdue
I really thought Virginia would glide to this game at least. I didn’t think Purdue would make it out of the first weekend. I thought Virginia’s offense had moved past their occasional stinkers. I thought Purdue’s offesne would have a game by now where it cost them. What can I say.
Virginia was clearly the better team last night. They won by 4. Purdue was coasting and then the offesne has its stretch of stink coupled with free throw shooting that was beyond bad. What does it all mean? Beats me. I think Virginia is better and they are favored by 4 in KenPom.
The Pick: Virginia 64 Purdue 60
KenPom’s top offense takes on KenPom’s top defense. Gonzaga is the offense, Texas Tech is the defense. Did we learn anything last night? I think enough where we can make an educated pick.
The Zags took on a Seminoles team that came in with swag and confidence. They eviscerated them. FSU got close at a point in the second half and the Zags never looked close to breaking. And they did it on both sides of the ball.
Texas Tech and Michigan took turns in the first half disgracing the sport before Texas Tech found a few buckets. They rolled in the second half overwhelming Michigan on both sides of the ball. Unlike Michigan, I can’t see the Zags turning it over as much and missing that many baskets. Truth is, Gonzaga is light years better than Michigan. That’s not a slam at Texas Tech, that’s praise for Gonzaga,
The Pick: Gonzaga 70 Texas Tech 59
South Region: Virginia vs. Purdue
I really thought Virginia would glide to this game at least. I didn’t think Purdue would make it out of the first weekend. I thought Virginia’s offense had moved past their occasional stinkers. I thought Purdue’s offesne would have a game by now where it cost them. What can I say.
Virginia was clearly the better team last night. They won by 4. Purdue was coasting and then the offesne has its stretch of stink coupled with free throw shooting that was beyond bad. What does it all mean? Beats me. I think Virginia is better and they are favored by 4 in KenPom.
The Pick: Virginia 64 Purdue 60
Thursday, March 28, 2019
Midwest Region: Sweet 16
North Carolina vs. Auburn-
UNC comes in having rolled Washington while Auburn comes in having rolled Kansas. The Tigers look to continue their assault on blue bloods. Carolina possesses the 8th most efficient offense and 11th most efficient defense. Auburn is 6th and 45th. Can Auburn get enough stops?
Auburn is 225th in effective fg% defense. That’s bad. They force a lot of turnovers but UNC is pretty good at not turning it over. Auburn is going to need to turn it over on defense. If they don’t, UNC will feast on offense. Auburn is a bad defensive rebounding team. In fact, they’re amongst the worst in the nation. They foul a ton, too. Given UNC’s offensive rebounding prowess, Auburn is a great matchup for them.
On the other side of the ball, UNC’s defense doesn’t do anything spectacular save rebounding. That said, they are solid across the board without any weakness except fouling. Auburn doesn’t typically get to the foul line, though. One thing they do well and what gives them a chance is shoot 3’s and they shoot and make a lot. Carolina gives up a lot, so it’s possible.
If Auburn is making 3’s, they can win. If they’re not falling, it’ll be a rout.
The Pick: North Carolina 81 Auburn 74
Kentucky vs. Houston-
This has a chance to be another great Sweet 16 game. Kentucky is 7th in KenPom with the 11th best offesne and 8th best defense. Houston checks in at 20 and 12, respectively. Both teams play at about the same tempo. Giddy up.
Houston has the best effective fg% defense. They have the best 3-pt defense and 5th best 2-pt defense. They do foul quite a bit. Kentucky is 72nd in effective fg% offense. They’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams but PJ Washington was a big reason for that. Does he play and is he effective. Kentucky is aggressive on offense and collects a lot of fouls on their opponents. I think Houston’s defense is a huge advantage in this matchup but Kentucky can alleviate that by getting to the line.
Kentucky’s defense is quite good, too. The only thing they don’t do well is turn opponents over. Houston is solid on offense. They don’t do anything great except rebounding. Kentucky matches them with their defensive rebounding. But, part of that includes PJ Washington. If he gives them even 20 good minutes, it’ll be big. If he’s ineffective, I think Houston wins.
The Pick: Houston 66 Kentucky 65
UNC comes in having rolled Washington while Auburn comes in having rolled Kansas. The Tigers look to continue their assault on blue bloods. Carolina possesses the 8th most efficient offense and 11th most efficient defense. Auburn is 6th and 45th. Can Auburn get enough stops?
Auburn is 225th in effective fg% defense. That’s bad. They force a lot of turnovers but UNC is pretty good at not turning it over. Auburn is going to need to turn it over on defense. If they don’t, UNC will feast on offense. Auburn is a bad defensive rebounding team. In fact, they’re amongst the worst in the nation. They foul a ton, too. Given UNC’s offensive rebounding prowess, Auburn is a great matchup for them.
On the other side of the ball, UNC’s defense doesn’t do anything spectacular save rebounding. That said, they are solid across the board without any weakness except fouling. Auburn doesn’t typically get to the foul line, though. One thing they do well and what gives them a chance is shoot 3’s and they shoot and make a lot. Carolina gives up a lot, so it’s possible.
If Auburn is making 3’s, they can win. If they’re not falling, it’ll be a rout.
The Pick: North Carolina 81 Auburn 74
Kentucky vs. Houston-
This has a chance to be another great Sweet 16 game. Kentucky is 7th in KenPom with the 11th best offesne and 8th best defense. Houston checks in at 20 and 12, respectively. Both teams play at about the same tempo. Giddy up.
Houston has the best effective fg% defense. They have the best 3-pt defense and 5th best 2-pt defense. They do foul quite a bit. Kentucky is 72nd in effective fg% offense. They’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams but PJ Washington was a big reason for that. Does he play and is he effective. Kentucky is aggressive on offense and collects a lot of fouls on their opponents. I think Houston’s defense is a huge advantage in this matchup but Kentucky can alleviate that by getting to the line.
Kentucky’s defense is quite good, too. The only thing they don’t do well is turn opponents over. Houston is solid on offense. They don’t do anything great except rebounding. Kentucky matches them with their defensive rebounding. But, part of that includes PJ Washington. If he gives them even 20 good minutes, it’ll be big. If he’s ineffective, I think Houston wins.
The Pick: Houston 66 Kentucky 65
East Region: Sweet 16
LSU vs. Michigan State-
What a great game for all those people that love old school toughness against those cheating bastards from the bayou. East Lansing and MSU might be a cesspool but they sure are OLD SKOOL TOUGH. Does LSU have a chance? In a nutshell, I don’t see it.
I dove into the numbers looking for a way LSU can win and nothing is there. Everything LSU does well, Sparty does as well or better. It would take an uncharacteristic performance from Sparty. If LSU has one thing going for them is, they do turn teams over and Michigan State is turnover prone. I just can’t see Cassius Winston letting that happen. There’s a lot of Matean Cleaves in him (Hopefully just the basketball part).
The Pick: Michigan State 68 LSU 60
Duke vs. Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech won earlier in the season at home. Duke was without Zion Williamson but the Hokies were without Justin Robinson. Duke is a decent favorite but not overwhelming. The Hokies are 11th in KenPom and top 20 on both sides of the ball. Duke is top 10 on both sides.
Virginia Tech is 13th in real shooting, but Duke is 9th defensively. Duke is also 13th in 3-pt % defense. They’re 3rd in block % and 4th in steal %. They also don’t foul. This isn’t a good Duke defense, this is a great Duke defense. They’re weakness is rebounding. Tech is 9th in 3-pt shooting. Something has to give.
Tech is 19th in defensive efficiency and don’t foul as well. They force a lot of turnovers. Duke is slightly above average at protecting the ball and elite at offensive rebounding. Tech is slightly above average at defensive rebounding. Duke has a slight advantage here and with Zion, I think that outweighs VPI adding Robinson on this side of the ball.
The Hokies are slow. 332nd in tempo while Duke is one of the quickest teams in the nation. Can one of them dictate pace? Duke didn’t blink against Virginia and only lost by 5 in Blacksburg. Buzz Williams more than anything wants to beat great coaches. Does it mean anything?
The Pick: Duke 77 VPI 72
What a great game for all those people that love old school toughness against those cheating bastards from the bayou. East Lansing and MSU might be a cesspool but they sure are OLD SKOOL TOUGH. Does LSU have a chance? In a nutshell, I don’t see it.
I dove into the numbers looking for a way LSU can win and nothing is there. Everything LSU does well, Sparty does as well or better. It would take an uncharacteristic performance from Sparty. If LSU has one thing going for them is, they do turn teams over and Michigan State is turnover prone. I just can’t see Cassius Winston letting that happen. There’s a lot of Matean Cleaves in him (Hopefully just the basketball part).
The Pick: Michigan State 68 LSU 60
Duke vs. Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech won earlier in the season at home. Duke was without Zion Williamson but the Hokies were without Justin Robinson. Duke is a decent favorite but not overwhelming. The Hokies are 11th in KenPom and top 20 on both sides of the ball. Duke is top 10 on both sides.
Virginia Tech is 13th in real shooting, but Duke is 9th defensively. Duke is also 13th in 3-pt % defense. They’re 3rd in block % and 4th in steal %. They also don’t foul. This isn’t a good Duke defense, this is a great Duke defense. They’re weakness is rebounding. Tech is 9th in 3-pt shooting. Something has to give.
Tech is 19th in defensive efficiency and don’t foul as well. They force a lot of turnovers. Duke is slightly above average at protecting the ball and elite at offensive rebounding. Tech is slightly above average at defensive rebounding. Duke has a slight advantage here and with Zion, I think that outweighs VPI adding Robinson on this side of the ball.
The Hokies are slow. 332nd in tempo while Duke is one of the quickest teams in the nation. Can one of them dictate pace? Duke didn’t blink against Virginia and only lost by 5 in Blacksburg. Buzz Williams more than anything wants to beat great coaches. Does it mean anything?
The Pick: Duke 77 VPI 72
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