Friday, March 10, 2017

Friday Quick Thoughts and Why Vanderbilt > Syracuse

Lots of action yesterday and I'm still going over the numbers.  Illinois and Iowa are out for good while Marquette and Illinois State appear to be the biggest questions now that they have no more games to play.  Kansas State and California continue to knock on the door and Rhode Island begins their A-10 action today.
One thing of note as I was going through things this morning.  Syracuse, who I had in, and Vanderbilt, who was my 3rd out had very similar resumes.  Syracuse was 6-8 against the top 50, which is Lunardi (ESPN's?) rational for letting them in.  Well, Vanderbilt is 5-8.  What does 1 more win mean you ask?  Not much....until you look at the other numbers:

Wins vs 51-100: Syracuse 2-1, Vandy 5-5
Non-Conf SOS: Syracuse #198, Vandy #1
RPI: Syracuse 86, Vandy 43
KenPom: Syracuse 48, Vandy 36

In fact, the only number that Syracuse is better at than Vanderbilt is the ESPN invented BPI which is Syracuse 31 to Vanderbilt's 44.

I guess they both could make it at this point but I don't see how Syracuse could be ahead of Vanderbilt in anybody's bracket.

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Late Afternoon Notes

Kansas lost which doesn't mean much.  They are still a #1 seed.

Louisville looked good until Duke went to a zone defense.  Duke rarely plays zone and doesn't play it well but it was enough to turn the game around and give Duke a win.  Louisville will fall from the 2 line.  Who steps up to get it?

Marquette lost a must win and may fall out of the bracket.  They were on shaky ground to begin with.

Michigan State locks a bid.

Georgia stays in the conversation.

Early Afternoon Thursday

North Carolina and Villanova not only looked like #1 seeds, they looked like the favorites to repeat and meet in the championship again this year.

Illinois lost and is done at this point.  Geez, even Syracuse's profile looks better.

Georgia is hanging onto a small lead against Tennessee.  They need a win here and tomorrow, and possibly Saturday.  Got to start somewhere though.


                                                       Sweet Repeat?

Thursday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Kansas (B12) vs Mt.St.Mary(NEC)/N.Orleams(Sland)
Villanova (Beast) vs NCCU(MEAC)/N.Dakota (Bsky)
Gonzaga (WCC) vs S.Dakota St(Summit)
North Carolina (ACC) vs Jacksonville St (OVC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Oregon (P12) vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
UCLA vs N.Kentucky (Horizon)
Kentucky (SEC) vs Texas Southern (SWAC)
Louisville vs Cal-Bakersfield (WAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Baylor vs Iona (MAAC)
Arizona vs Florida Gulf Coast (Asun)
Butler vs Winthrop(Bsouth)
West Virginia vs Bucknell (Pat)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Florida State vs ETSU (SoCon)
Duke vs Akron (MAC)
Florida vs Princeton (Ivy)
CincinnatI vs Vermont (Aeast)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Virgina vs Nevada (Mwest)
Purdue (B14) vs UT-Arlington (Sbelt)
Notre Dame vs UNC-Wilmington (Col)
SMU (AAC) vs Illinois St/Syracuse
6 seed vs 11 seed
St. Mary's vs Rhode Island/Marquette
Wisconsin vs Wake Forest
Minnesota vs Providence
Iowa State vs Xavier
7 seed vs 10 seed
Maryland vs USC
Creighton vs Seton Hall
Oklahoma State vs Wichita State (Mvalley)
Dayton (A10) vs Middle Tenn St (C-USA)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Miami vs Arkansas
South Carolina vs Michigan State
Virginia Tech vs Northwestern
Michigan vs VCU
First Four Out
California
Kansas State
Vanderbilt
Illinois
Next Four Out
Iowa
Indiana
Houston
TCU
Also Considered
Georgia
Utah
Mississippi

Thursday Morning Notes

Bucknell grabs the Auto-Bid from Patriot league last night and that's the last auto-if until Saturday night.

The big losers yesterday were Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Syracuse.  Georgia Tech is no longer in consideration while Wake remains in the bracket as one of my last 4 in.  Syracuse is a different question.  On one hand they have a lot of good wins, on the other hand because of their scheduling and lack of road wins their RPI is in the mid-80's.  I currently have them as my last team in but I don't hold a lot of confidence in that.

Today is a huge day as almost all teams are in action.  Lots of movement up and down as the wins and loses come in.

Watch for updates.

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Wednesday Morning Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Kansas (B12) vs Mt.St.Mary(NEC)/N.Orleams(Sland)
Villanova (Beast) vs NCCU(MEAC)/N.Dakota (Bsky)
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Jacksonville St (OVC)
North Carolina (ACC) vs N.Kentucky (Horizon)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Oregon (P12) vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
UCLA vs Texas Southern (SWAC)
Kentucky (SEC) vs S.Dakota St(Summit)
Louisville vs Cal-Bakersfield (WAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Baylor vs Iona (MAAC)
Arizona vs Florida Gulf Coast (Asun)
Butler vs Winthrop(Bsouth)
West Virginia vs Bucknell (Pat)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Florida State vs ETSU (SoCon)
Duke vs Akron (MAC)
Florida vs Princeton (Ivy)
CincinnatI vs Vermont (Aeast)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Virgina vs Nevada (Mwest)
Purdue (B14) vs UT-Arlington (Sbelt)
Notre Dame vs UNC-Wilmington (Col)
SMU (AAC) vs Illinois St/Syracuse
6 seed vs 11 seed
St. Mary's vs Rhode Island/Wake Forest
Wisconsin vs Marquette
Minnesota vs Providence
Iowa State vs Xavier
7 seed vs 10 seed
Maryland vs Seton Hall
Creighton vs Wichita State (Mvalley)
Oklahoma State vs Arkansas
Dayton (A10) vs Middle Tenn St (C-USA)
8 seed vs 9 seed
South Carolina vs USC
Virginia Tech vs Michigan State
Miami vs Northwestern
Michigan vs VCU
First Four Out
Kansas State
California
Vanderbilt
Illinois
Next Four Out
Iowa
Clemson
Indiana
Houston
Also Considered
Georgia
TCU
Utah
Mississippi

WAC

Tomorrow night from Paradise, Nevada, the WAC begins its conference tournament.

The WAC will probably come down to 1-seed Cal-State Bakersfield or 2-seed, New Mexico State. NMSU is 97th in KenPom and Bakersfield is 110. They split their regular season matchups. NMSU has lost 3 of its last 6 as it enters the tournament. 

New Mexico State does have wins over New Mexico and Arizona State on its ledger. They're a dangerous team if they figure out why they've scuffled the last few weeks. Bakersfield lost to SMU, 49-43. That's gross.

The Pick: New Mexico State