January Contenders

 

With about 2 months left before Selection Sunday now is a good time to Tier out the top 16 teams in my bracket and put them in buckets.  In my estimation this is the strongest top 10-15 teams we’ve seen in awhile and I can’t argue with prognosticators who think there are at least 10 teams that can win it all.  I don’t believe the group is that large but I’m going to see where I end up as I type this out.
 
Tier 1 – Definitely can win it all this year
Arizona – still undefeated
Iowa State – loss to Kansas last night changes nothing
Michigan – losing to Wisconsin might give them motivation
Houston – I might have them as my favorite right now
Connecticut – I debated putting them in Tier 2 but now that they are at full strength they look dominant
 
Tier 2 – Need to see more; they have a flaw
Duke – contender but they need a consistent third scorer and to stop digging an early hole
Gonzaga – can probably never be a Tier 1 team until they actually win it all
 
Tier 3 – I *think* they are underrated; I need to dig deeper
Purdue – have the talent and guard play.  Only loss is to Iowa State
Illinois – I said they were overrated early in the season.  All losses are to top 20 teams
Vanderbilt – Look solid but they are Vanderbilt
 
Tier 4 – I’m confused; are these teams really contenders?
Nebraska – undefeated and the best story in college but they are Nebraska
BYU – great metrics but only played 1 team in the top 25…and lost
Florida – Jekyll and Hyde all year.  On the upswing but can you trust the guards?
Texas Tech – I want them to be in a higher Tier but outside of Toppin and Anderson…
 
Tier 5 – Frauds
Michigan State – Every year I hear how great they are, but they have 1 Final Four in the last 10 years
North Carolina – I can’t believe I’m typing this, but they are going to really miss Elliot Cadeau.
 
Kurly – What do you got for contenders?

Tuesday Bracketology

1. Arizona  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/North Carolina Central
1. Iowa St.  vs  16. Vermont/Dartmouth
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Michigan  vs  16. Navy
2. Duke  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Quinnipiac
2. Purdue  vs  15. Austin Peay
2. Vanderbilt  vs  15. Wright St.
3. BYU  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Nebraska  vs  14. St. Thomas
3. Texas Tech  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
4. Illinois  vs  13. Hawaii
4. Louisville  vs  13. Liberty
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hofstra
5. North Carolina  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Alabama  vs  12. High Point
5. Virginia  vs  12. Tulsa
5. Kansas  vs  12. Murray St.
6. Utah St.  vs  11. New Mexico
6. Arkansas  vs  11. UCLA/LSU
6. Clemson  vs  11. Texas A&M/Miami OH
6. SMU  vs  11. Ohio St.
7. St. John's  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Tennessee  vs  10. Indiana
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. Kentucky
7. USC  vs  10. Georgia
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Wisconsin
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. Seton Hall
8. Iowa  vs  9. UCF
8. Auburn  vs  9. Villanova

First Four Out - Texas

First Four Out - Baylor

First Four Out - George Mason

First Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Butler

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - San Diego St.

Also Considered - Oklahoma

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Creighton

Nebraska?

Fred Hoiberg is coaching his 7th season at Nebraska. That’s 2 more seasons than he was at Iowa State. Doesn’t seem possible. Neither does an undefeated Nebraska who is 15-0 and 4-0 in the Big 18. Counting the CBC title of a year ago, Nebraska is on a 19-game winning streak. This isn’t just a woman’s volleyball school anymore.

Nebraska has never made the 2nd weekend in the tournament. Never. Before we get too excited, they are 19th in KenPom which is quite good but doesn’t translate to a 2nd weekend team but that feels irrelevant. What might be relevant is, they’re 27th in KenPom luck metric which means this probably isn’t sustainable.

The good news is, they’ve built some equity and even if they finished 8-8 in their last 16, they’re in the dance. They’re projected to finish 14-6 in the league and that’s a mortal lock.

They have some warts on offense. They fire a ton of 3’s and are average at making them. They’re better at 2’s, 60%, 20th in the nation. When they lose in March, it’ll be a cold shooting night. Since they do not rebound their misses, 2nd chances will be limited. 

What they do at an elite level is, not turn it over, 13th in Turnover %. 47th in AdjO isn’t good enough to be threat to win it all and I have my doubts they get much better offensively but it’s good enough to make that 1st 2nd weekend.

Defensively, they’re quite good. 28th best effective defensive fg% and they do not foul. While they don’t crash the offensive glass, they’re 27th in defensive rebounding %. Basically, this is a team that does not beat itself.

I think it’s likely they tail off and are a bit of an afterthought when we get to March but it’s been impressive what they’ve done so far. The majority of the minutes are upperclassmen, so it’s a veteran squad, even if they haven’t all played together their entire college career. Fun season in Lincoln and after the football team sucked again and the lady volleyballers choked like dogs, a welcome respite.

First Bracketology of 2026

 1. Michigan  vs  16. Grambling St./North Carolina Central
1. Arizona  vs  16. Merrimack/Lindenwood
1. Iowa St.  vs  16. Vermont
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Utah Tech
2. Duke  vs  15. Colgate
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. LIU
2. Purdue  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Vanderbilt  vs  15. Lipscomb
3. BYU  vs  14. UC Irvine
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Alabama  vs  14. St. Thomas
3. Kansas  vs  14. Oakland
4. Nebraska  vs  13. East Tennessee St.
4. Louisville  vs  13. Liberty
4. Kansas  vs  13. High Point
4. Kansas  vs  13. William & Mary
5. Illinois  vs  12. Stephen F. Austin
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Memphis
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Murray St.
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. Yale
6. Georgia  vs  11. Saint Louis
6. Virginia  vs  11. Ohio St./Oklahoma
6. Florida  vs  11. Virginia Tech/Miami OH
6. Iowa  vs  11. N.C. State
7. Utah St.  vs  10. Baylor
7. Tennessee  vs  10. Indiana
7. SMU  vs  10. UCLA
7. Auburn  vs  10. Miami Fl
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. LSU
8. USC  vs  9. Seton Hall
8. Clemson  vs  9. UCF
8. Kentucky  vs  9. St. John's

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - Butler

First Four Out - Boise St.

First Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Tulsa

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - Texas

Also Considered - George Mason

Also Considered - Colorado

Also Considered - Creighton

Michigan

Welcome to 2026. As we enter the new year, we have a monster atop the college basketball world, the Michigan Wolverines. They sit atop KenPom with a NetRtg of 39.17, with Arizona second at 34.34. That is a big gap between 1 and 2, even for January 3rd.

It’s largely built on a defense that is 1st in the nation, with a DRtg of 86.7. Again, Arizona is 2nd at 90.5. That is a big gap, too. The offense isn’t too shabby, either, sitting 5th. They’re a very good team.

The results back the numbers. After early season struggles against Wake Forest and TCU, middling teams, let’s take a look at the results.

- 40 point win over SDSU

- 30 point win over Auburn

- 25 point win over Villanova

- 41 point win over McNeese State (I include this because McNeese is 67th in KenPom and will be 12-5 nightmare in March)

- 30 point win over USC

They’re not just winning, they’re eviscerating the competition. Great teams blowout the competition.

Now, there is a lot of basketball left and since Covid, teams have become much more efficient than ever. Duke was actually better at the end of 2025 by a few decimal points and lost in the national semis. Gonzaga and Baylor were at this level in ‘21 at about the same time. Zags maintained but would lose to Baylor in the title game after Baylor saw their numbers dip as they went through the Big XII meat grinder. I think keeping the Baylor comp in mind will be important as Big 18 play ramps up.

UConn of ‘24 is another comp and they largely breezed through the season, with one hiccup in league play. Michigan will find the road much more difficult than the Huskies did, so it is likely they don’t maintain this pace.

Being where they’re at on January 3rd doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme but as of today, Michigan has been the best team in the nation and it isn’t close. How they handle adversity and a grind of a league schedule will determine where they finish but through 2 months, what they’ve done has been quite impressive.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Southern/Norfolk St.
1. Iowa St.  vs  16. Vermont/LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Siena
1. Michigan  vs  16. Oakland
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Colgate
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Purdue  vs  15. St. Thomas
2. BYU  vs  15. South Alabama
3. Alabama  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
3. North Carolina  vs  14. Lipscomb
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Northern Colorado
3. Kansas  vs  14. William & Mary
4. Louisville  vs  13. Sam Houston St.
4. Houston  vs  13. Akron
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Kansas  vs  13. High Point
5. St. John's  vs  12. Belmont
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. UC San Diego
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Yale
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Tulsa
6. Nebraska  vs  11. Saint Louis
6. Indiana  vs  11. McNeese St./Seton Hall
6. USC  vs  11. Wisconsin/Villanova
6. Florida  vs  11. Ohio St.
7. Auburn  vs  10. Baylor
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCF
7. Iowa St.  vs  10. Miami Fl
7. SMU  vs  10. N.C. State
8. UCLA  vs  9. LSU
8. Virginia  vs  9. Oklahoma St.
8. Georgia  vs  9. Kentucky
8. Utah St.  vs  9. Clemson

First Four Out         Baylor

First Four Out     Oklahoma

First Four Out         Colorado

First Four Out         Wake Forest

Next Four Out     Butler

Next Four Out         George Washington

Next Four Out     TCU

Next Four Out     Missouri

Also Considered Colorado St.

Also Considered California

Also Considered Boise St.

Also Considered Santa Clara

December 2 Bracketology

1. Arizona  vs  16. Southern/Norfolk St.
1. Purdue  vs  16. UMBC/LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Siena
1. Michigan  vs  16. Northern Kentucky
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Colgate
2. Louisville  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. St. Thomas
2. BYU  vs  15. South Alabama
3. Alabama  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
3. North Carolina  vs  14. Austin Peay
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Northern Colorado
3. Kansas  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Gonzaga  vs  13. New Mexico St.
4. Houston  vs  13. Buffalo
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Kansas  vs  13. High Point
5. St. John's  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Kentucky  vs  12. Belmont
5. Tennessee  vs  12. UC San Diego
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Yale
6. Nebraska  vs  11. George Mason
6. Iowa  vs  11. Tulsa/Seton Hall
6. Vanderbilt  vs  11. Texas/Baylor
6. Indiana  vs  11. Ohio St.
7. USC  vs  10. Wake Forest
7. Missouri  vs  10. TCU
7. Auburn  vs  10. SMU
7. NC State  vs  10. Saint Mary's
8. Butler  vs  9. Georgia
8. Florida  vs  9. Oklahoma St.
8. LSU  vs  9. Virginia
8. Utah St.  vs  9. Clemson
 
First Four Out Dayton
First Four Out Wisconsin
First Four Out Washington
First Four Out Villanova
Next Four Out Boise St.
Next Four Out Texas A&M
Next Four Out Saint Louis
Next Four Out VCU
Also Considered          Colorado St.
Also Considered          UCLA
Also Considered          Colorado St.
Also Considered          Mississippi