Tuesday Bracketology

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Purdue (B1G) vs NC-Central(MEAC)/FDU(NEC)
Kansas(Big12) vs NicollsSt(Sland)/EWU(Bsky)
Houston(AAC) vs Southern(SWAC)
Alabama vs Samford(SoCon)
2 seed vs 15 seed
UCLA(Pac12) vs Stetson(Asun)
Tennessee(SEC) vs Milwaukee (Hor)
Arizona vs SIUE (OVC)
Gonzaga vs Colgate(Pat)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Xavier vs Longwood(Bsouth)
Connecticut vs Siena(MAAC)
Virginia vs IndSt(Mvalley)
Texas vs Princeton(Ivy)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Kansas St vs Umass-Lowell(Aeast)
Providence (Beast) vs Oral Roberts(Summit)
Duke vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
Iowa State vs Utah Valley(WAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Miami vs Charleston(Col)
Baylor vs FAU(Cusa)
Arkansas vs SoMiss(Sbelt)
Marquette vs Dayton (A10)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Wisconsin vs Clemson (ACC)
N.Carolina vs Kent St(MAC)
TCU vs Nevada (Mwest)
St. Mary's(WCC) vs Utah/Rutgers
7 seed vs 10 seed
Indiana vs NC St/Arizona St
Ohio State vs Mississippi State
New Mexico vs VaTech
Mizzouri vs West Virginia
8 seed vs 9 seed
San Diego St vs Maryland
Creighton vs Illinois
Memphis vs Kentucky
Michigan State vs Auburn
First Four Out
Oklahoma
Northwestern
Penn St
Utah State
Next Four Out
Boise St
Santa Clara
Pittsburgh
UNLV
Also Considered
Cincinnati
Colorado
LSU
VCU
UAB
Fordham
North Texas
UCF
Iowa
Michigan
Oklahoma St
Texas Tech

The Authoritative Top 10 is Back

10. Xavier - Winners of 9 straight, their 3 losses are by a total of 13 points. UConn is the favorite in the Big East but X isn’t far behind. They need to tighten up the defense but the offense is second weekend good.

9. Virginia - This UVA team isn’t going to win a national championship but it’s setup to bore us into the second weekend. They don’t do anything great but in 2023, that’s ok.

8. Purdue - The best of the Big Ten started hot but has a home loss to a very good Rutgers team and a squeaker win at Ohio State. Elite offense, pretty good defense. Another team that screams losing to a 7 or 8 seed in March.

7. Texas - Have overcome the coaching shock and outside a blitzing at Kansas State, look like the team we all expected.

6. Tennessee - Not sold on the offensive side of the ball. Elite defenders, I mean clear cut best defensive team in the nation, but my Rick Barnes bias leaves me leery.

5. Alabama - Any big time program that makes a coaching change should target Nate Oats.  Plays a fun style of basketball and wildly efficient. Final Four squad.

4. UCLA - If a tree falls in the forest and all that jazz, there best win is over a weird Kentucky squad. They check all the boxes. Clearly the best team in their league, feels like cruise control until March.

3. Kansas - Unlike UCLA, the Jayhawks will be tested in nearly every game on the schedule. The Big XII is an absolute joy to watch and a meat grinder for all the teams. Every team is in the KenPom top-40.

2. UConn - Two double digit losses are a concern but double digit wins over Alabama and Iowa State on a neutral Court are as impressive as any this year. The coach needs a longer fuse, though.

1. Houston - Good backcourt and an elite defense. Another team on cruise control until March. We may look back and say, yeah, we should have seen they’d win it all. I’m less certain at the moment, however.

2023 Bracketology

 
1 seed vs 16 seed
Purdue vs NC-Central(MEAC)/FDU(NEC)
Kansas(Big12) vs NicollsSt(Sland)/NKY(Hor)
Arizona vs GaSouthern (Sbelt)
Alabama vs Southern(SWAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Houston(AAC) vs SIUE (OVC)
Tennessee(SEC) vs Longwood(Bsouth)
UCLA(Pac12) vs Colgate(Pat)
Gonzaga vs E.Washington(Bsky)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Xavier vs UNCG(SoCon)
Connecticut vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
Virginia vs IndSt(Mvalley)
Texas vs Cornell (Ivy)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Baylor vs Umass-Lowell(Aeast)
Arkansas vs Oral Roberts(Summit)
Duke vs Liberty(Asun)
Iowa State vs Utah Valley(WAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wisconsin(B1G) vs Charleston(Col)
Miami vs FAU(Cusa)
Kansas St vs Iona(MAAC)
Providence (Beast) vs Dayton (A10)
6 seed vs 11 seed
TCU vs Pittsburgh (ACC)
Indiana vs Kent St(MAC)
Ohio State vs Nevada (Mwest)
Marquette vs Utah State/Illinois
7 seed vs 10 seed
Kentucky vs Miss St/Penn St
N.Carolina vs Maryland
New Mexico vs Rutgers
West Virginia vs Utah
8 seed vs 9 seed
St. Mary's(WCC) vs Auburn
Creighton vs VaTech
Mizzouri vs Memphis
San Diego St vs Michigan State

First Four Out

NC State

Oklahoma St

Texas Tech

Arizona St

Next Four Out

Oklahoma

Northwestern

Clemson

Michigan

Ranking The National Champs of the KenPom Era

I’ve had this idea for awhile and that was to rank the national champs of the KenPom era. I didn’t include 2020 because of covid. The criteria was this. I ranked national champs based on best Adjusted Efficiency Margin and then added each teams final spot in Adjusted Offense and Defense. I used that total to rank overall and have the difference from where they were in the initial Adjusted Efficiency Margin. Let’s dive in working from worst to best.

20. 2014 UConn - The ‘14 Huskies had a final AdjEM of 22.13 and finished KenPom 15th overall. They were 39th and 10th in AdjustedO and AdjustedD. They were the worst in this group and it’s not really close.

19. 2011 UConn - They finished 10th in KenPom overall and survived the grueling Big East tournament. Prior to March, though, this wasn’t the team anyone expected to win another title for the Big East.

18. 2003 Syracuse - This one surprised me a bit but if we remember, that Orange team was a 3-seed. They actually had the 2nd worse overall AdjEM of all the teams here. They didn’t have a top 10 offense or defense but did have Carmelo Anthony.

17. 2021 Baylor - This one is another surprise. If we remember correctly, Baylor had one of the best overall AdjustedEM of the KenPom era, 3rd best of all national champs but a 22nd overall defense is the worst defense of any of the campions listed.

16. 2022 Kansas - 17th best AdjEM and an offensive final at 6th and 17th on defense. Not close to one of Bull Self’s best teams but the one that got him a second title.

15. 2017 North Carolina - Do you remember much about this UNC team? They were 16 in AdjEM.

14. 2009 North Carolina - I admit, based on the eye test, I’d have this team higher. Based strictly on AdjEM, they’d still only be 11th. Best offensive team in the country but 18th on defense in 2009.

13. 2004 UConn - Not much to say here. They finished 2nd in KenPom in 2004 with top 10’s on offense and defense. Duke was one in KenPom this season but UConn knocked them out in the semi-finals.

T-11. 2015 Duke & 2007 Florida - Neither team finished the season 1st in KenPom but got what mattered, national championships. Kentucky and UNC were KenPom number 1’s that year. 

10. 2018 Villanova - The Wildcats second title team actually had a better AdjEM than the ‘16 team based largely on one of the best offenses of the KenPom era.

9. 2002 Maryland The Terps were 3rd in KenPom this season, Duke was the best. The Terps did have the 4th best offense and defense.

8. 2006 Florida- This Gators team was 15th best overall in AdjustedEM but had top 10 offenses and defenses. ‘07 team had a better overall AdjustedEM but the defense was just outside the top-10

7. 2012 Kentucky - Speaking out eye test, I’d have a hard time finding a better team than this Kentucky team. They actually would be 8th if just based on AdjustedEM. Top-10 on offense and defense, this remains Cal’s best team.

T-5. 2013 Louisville & 2016 Villanova - Two of the more fun teams of the KenPom era. Louisville had one of the best defenses of the KenPom era and a top-10 offense. Nova was top-5 on both sides of the court.

T-3. 2005 North Carolina & 2019 Virginia - Remarkably, both had the 2nd best offenses and 5th best defenses each year. UVA’s 2019 team also had the 2nd best AdjEM overall of all national champs in this era.

2. 2010 Duke - I’ll admit, I wouldn’t have thought this. Duke finished the year atop KenPom with the best offense  and 6th best defense. They had the 5th best overall AdjEM of this era but this was K’s 2nd best team of this era. His 2002 team was actually better.

1. 2008 Kansas - The 2008 season was probably one of the best of the century for high quality college basketball and the champs earned this. They the 2nd best offense and best overall defense. Their AdjustedEM of +35.21 was better than 2019 Virginia who finished at +34.22. They’re the best and it’s not remotely close 

The 1st Bracketology is Here

 
1 seed vs 16 seed
Purdue(B1G) vs NC-Central(MEAC)/Wagner(NEC)
Virginia(ACC) vs NW St(Sland)/SIUE(OVC)
Connecticut vs High Point(Bsouth)
Alabama vs Grambling(SWAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Houston(AAC) vs FGCU(Asun)
Tennessee(SEC) vs American(Pat)
Kansas(Big12) vs Montana St(Bsky)
Duke vs Chattanooga(SoCon)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Arizona St vs Milwaukee(Hor)
Texas vs Umass-Lowell(Aeast)
UCLA(Pac12) vs Oral Roberts(Summit)
Gonzaga vs MiddTenn St(CUSA)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Miss St vs Fordham(A10)
Maryland vs Charleston(Col)
Indiana vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
Kentucky vs Bradley(Mvalley)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Baylor vs St. John's(Beast)
Arkansas vs So Miss(Sbelt)
Illinois vs Yale(Ivy)
West Virginia vs UNLV/Oklahoma
6 seed vs 11 seed
VaTech vs New Mexico/Kansas St
Ohio State vs Sam Houston(WAC)
Memphis vs Kent St(MAC)
Utah St(Mwest) vs Iona(MAAC)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Iowa vs Creighton
Arizona St vs Michigan State
Marquette vs Fla Atlantic
Iowa State vs Boise St
8 seed vs 9 seed
St. Mary's(WCC) vs Auburn
N.Carolina vs Xavier
San Diego St vs Wisconsin
Utah vs Miami
First Four Out
NC State
Rutgers
Penn State
Mississppi
Next Four Out
Texas Tech
TCU
Nevada
Michigan
Also Considered
Marshall
Colorado
LSU
Butler
James Madison
Oklahoma st
UAB
Oregon
North Texas
Mizzouri
Northwestern
Charolotte
UCF
Indiana State
Drake

One Month In

 Just over a month into the season and nothing looks like it did in early December.  Multiple teams have been #1 and expect that to continue.

Gonzaga, North Carolina, UCLA, and Indiana haven't been as good as advertised while the Virginia teams are a combined 18-1.  Uconn is still undefeated and Alabama just beat the last #1 seed, Houston.

In addition we have the Chris Beard situation that just happened.  What will be the fallout on that one.

As for a bracket, I am hopeful to get my first one out this week.  I like to let things settle a little bit before starting my spreadsheet otherwise the swings are too big from week to week.  Hopefully later this week I can find some time to pound one out.

On the naughty list.

ACC Wins the Big Ten Challenge....

 Well, the last ACC-Big Ten Challenge comes to an end with the ACC winning 8-6.  Kind of shocking if you ask me as the ACC has looked lost to start the season.

Louisville is still looking for their first win and my 0-30 prediction may be spot on.  Florida State's only win is against Mercer and North Carolina has lost 3 in a row.  The ACC is down with only 2 teams in the top 20 of the KenPom Rankings.

In other news Texas looks great as does Houston, UConn, and Arizona.  I refuse to acknowledge Virginia even if they are averaging about 75 points a game this year.

Lastly I will leave you with this note.  The Big Ten played two games last week that ended 43-42.  Gross.