Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Day 1 Overreactions
Monday, November 8, 2021
Tomorrow The Season Begins!
The blog has been pretty quiet leading up to the season and that’s due to me spending more time coaching football than preparing for College Basketball. I do plan on getting things going later in the year and Bracketology will start in 2022.
At this point I’d be guessing at who my preseason Final Four will be but I don’t think you can go wrong with Michigan, UCLA, and Gonzaga being 3 of the 4. I assume the last team will be a wildcard but Duke would be a great story!
Sunday, November 7, 2021
Fearless and Bold 2021-22 Predictions Sure to be Wrong
The season starts this week. Probably time for some bold and fearless projections.
The Final Four
Michigan
Gonzaga
Duke
Kansas
National Title Game
Michigan over Gonzaga
3 Teams That Might Be Overrated
Baylor
Illinois
Kentucky
3 Teams That Might Be Underrated
North Carolina
Indiana
Oregon
National Player of the Year
Hunter Dickinson, Michigan
Monday, October 18, 2021
2021-22 Early KenPom Analysis
KenPom updated yesterday and that means college basketball is right around the corner. What can we learn? Well, not much other than what leagues look potentially good, mediocre or bad. Let’s start with the teams.
The Top 10 looks familiar. Gonzaga, Michigan, Kansas, Baylor and Illinois are your top 5. Illinois surprises me but Cockburn, Curbelo and Frazier are a good 3 to start with. The top 10 is rounded out by Purdue, UCLA, Ohio State, Villanova and Duke. The rest of the top 20 has the usual suspects. Texas Tech at 12 with a new coach will be interesting and Memphis at 16 will be as well. Put up or shut up time for Penny. Maryland is 18 and Mark Turgeon needs some March success. At least in October, it looks like this team has a chance.
An astute reader would not the proliferation of Big 14 teams. There are 7 of them in the top 30 and Indiana is knocking at the door at 31. The league is going to be a bloodbath. I believe Michigan will be the team to cut down the nets next April to end the embarrassing stretch of no national champs at 21 years.
The ACC appears in for another down season. Duke checks in at 10 but you have to go to 24 for the next team in FSU and Notre Dame is the only other top 30 team at 27. Even KenPom darling Virginia is 45.
Something else that caught my attention was the WCC coming in at 7 in conference rankings. The 6th rated league as of pre-season is the Big East which is actually closer to then number 1 Big 14 than the 7 WCC but the league might be worth some late nights this winter. Sadly, it also shows how much of an uphill fight mid-majors have today. Still, it’s ahead of the American.
A deeper dive into the WCC shows the Zags at 1, no surprise but you also have San Fran at 34, BYU at 38 and St. Mary’s at 42. LMU is 69, so 4 Top-100 teams. What it should provide at the very least is some tougher games for Gonzaga to prep them for March in conference. I don’t suspect they’ll make it through the league unscathed this year.
The season inches closer and it should be a fascinating year with all the changes and a sense of normalcy.
Thursday, July 22, 2021
It’s Back! Conference Shuffle 2021
After nearly a decade of relative conference stability, a bombshell dropped yesterday when the Houston Chronicle reported Texas and Oklahoma had contacted the SEC about possible membership. A few things off the top:
1. Texas and OU always had an uneasy truce with the rest of the Big XII which is a shame because it’s a super fun football and basketball league! It doesn’t have the stuffiness of the Big 14 or the ego of the SEC.
2. It’s hilarious it could be the SEC instead of the PAC-12 or Big 14. When conference shuffling happened circa 2010, it was rumored the Pac-12 would take Texas and OU along with Ok State and another Texas school. It was also the wet dream of Jim Delany to add Texas, OU less so.
The early scuttlebutt is Texas A&M isn’t thrilled about this possibility and there are political concerns in Oklahoma but that seems overblown. My hunch is this leaked yesterday from A&M but it won’t matter if Texas and OU want in. The SEC will have some internal strife over it but the additions would be too good to pass up.
Should that happen, what about the rest of the Big XII? That’s a great question. It sounds like OU is no longer joined at the hip with OK State. The Cowboys and Texas Tech and Baylor would be the big losers. Kansas will always be a valuable property because of hoops. Kansas State and Iowa State have always been vulnerable because they’re simply not great properties. The Big 14 isn’t taking any of the schools except Kansas.
As for the ACC and Pac-12, they can choose to add more properties but I’m not sure outside Kansas and Notre Dame any of the leftovers of the Big XII are that interesting. West Virginia is a bit of wild card as they’ve shown a commitment to being competive in football and basketball through the years. I’m just not sure the ACC would see them as a necessary addition.
The league most vulnerable outside the Big XII would likely be the AAC. Should the Big XII try and stick together, it isn’t wild speculation to assume Houston and Cincinnati would be natural targets, along with Memphis who is itching to move up in the world. It’s possible BYU might be inclined to join a league as well in football.
The times are-a-changing. Again.
Wednesday, June 2, 2021
Coach K Thoughts
I’m sort of surprised by the news. I guess I imagined him coaching until he was prodded out the door like Bobby Bowden or worse case scenario, Joe Paterno. Good for him. At age 75, enjoy the last years of your life.
I’ve seen some speculation he’s doing this because of the new frontier coming in college athletics, the combination of more liberal transfer rules and NIL. I don’t buy that. He transformed his roster building through the years, going from not having early entry candidates as late as 1999, to accepting that and to one-and-dones more recently. Given Duke and his stature, neither of those things would remotely hurt Duke. Is it possible he doesn’t want to deal with another change as drastic as what is coming? Sure, but he’s 75. Sometimes, it’s just time.
Here’s how I see his career in my mind. I split it into 4-sections.
1- Building the Program (1980-1994): We all know the story by now. Struggled early but gets the Dawkins class and begins a stretch of making every Final 4 between 1986 and 1994 except in ‘87 and ‘93. That’s still wild in my mind and so underapprecited. Sustained, stacked success like that was the closest thing the sport had outside UCLA under John Wooden and this was in the modern era of the sport (64+ tournament).
This was also the era where Duke went from being just another program to joining the likes of the New York Yankees as a truly hated entity. This wasn’t and isn’t a bad thing. You don’t become truly hated in sports unless you win a lot or cheat a lot, often they go hand-in-hand as we know.
I’ve thought about this through the years as to why they became so hated. They were truly an underdog against UNLV in 1991. They may not have been Buster Douglas but they were also still viewed as a team that was pretty good but never good enough, sort of like Dean Smith and UNC before 1982. The UNC comparisons for K at Duke are quite large. I think we loved UNLV because they were anti-establishment and that Duke team represented the establishment which wasn’t fair because quite frankly, they had some basketball dirtbags on that team. Coach K’s connection to Bobby Knight didn’t help either.
The same dynamic would repeat itself against the Fab Five in ‘92. The end of this era was the title game in ‘94 against Arkansas. The last vestiges of the ‘92 title game would be gone and the sport was transitioning to a different type of student athlete. The sport had also established itself into the sports hierarchy with the explosion of available games on TV due to ESPN. I’d bet at this time, this was the closest K ever came to making a jump to the NBA.
2- The Reboot (1995-2004): As we know, the ‘95 Duke team would miss the NCAA Tournament and Coach K sat out the year with a back. It wasn’t a good look. Weak team and a coach “quitting” when the going got tough. Lest we forget, Duke failed to make it out of the first weekend in ‘96 and ‘97. The ‘96 team was pretty average, finishing 8-8 in the ACC. They were 4-7 heading into February that year.
‘98 looked promising but they lost a heartbreaker in the Elite 8 to the eventual champ, Kentucky Wildcats in one of the best tournament games ever. I can make an argument his ‘99 team was his best ever and only a loss in another Classic, this time the title game against UConn sullied that remarkable season.
The 2000 team really represented how hard the tournament is and how random it can be. It also represents the remarkable run from ‘86-‘94. That 2000 team was good enough to beat Michigan State. Florida made 7 of 15 from 3 while Duke went 3 of 19. Ballgame. Of course, they’d win it all a year later.
Unlike the original run, this one only produced one title. An unlikely loss to Indiana in 2002 and a loss to eventual champ UConn again in the ‘04 Final 4 closed the door. This era was also marked by the first early entries under Coach K. It was big news when a chunk of that ‘99 team turned pro. Nonetheless, he figured out a way to win.
3- The Transition (2005-2010): Duke once again had the most hated player in the nation in this era in JJ Redick and a lot less March success until the unlikely title in 2010. This time also marked the change of the NBA draft rule that ushered in the one-and-dones. It also coincided with Roy Williams establishing himself at UNC as a worthy heir to Dean Smith.
Duke had a number of foils before this in the ACC. The aforementioned Dean Smith, Jim Valvano and NC State to a certain extent and some very good Wake Forest and Maryland teams. None of them matched the winning and success of Roy Williams. In a lot of ways, Williams run at UNC was similar to Coach K’s early run at Duke, just without the stumbles early.
While Duke didn’t fall off the map, they certainly were second fiddle to UNC until 2010. Carolina fell off a cliff after their 2009 title and Duke retook the league. Despite this, Duke would never once be number 1 in the nation until after the tournament. This was a year where Kansas and Kentucky were heavy favorites heading into the tournament. Duke’s best win that year prior to the tournament? It’s pretty bleak. I think when we look back at all his titles and championships, this may have been the favorite of them all for me besides 2015.
Part 4- Embrace Change (2011-present): Beginning with Kyrie Irving in 2011, Coach K radically changed his roster building and fully embraced the one-and-done model, for better or worse. While it produced a title in 2015 (This is another one I don’t think we fully appreciate), it was also a pretty fallow when it came to accomplishments.
Duke hasn’t won an ACC regular season title since 2010. Maybe this says more about conference regular season titles (It does for a variety of reasons for another day). They’ve only made one Final 4 but do have 4 Elite 8 trips. Coach K was also heavily involved with Team USA, helping right that ship.
In the end, it’s a remarkable career that has spanned a sport that as he has shown, is ever evolving. Evolving with it isn’t easy.
Many will cheer his departure without appreciating the successes and will mock many things about him. That’s a shame but winners have that burden. Did I find some of his late career complaints cringeworthy? Absolutely, but a person at his level for that long will put themselves in those positions.
Those arguing he’s running from something should probably look back like I did. Like Roy Williams earlier this year, it’s ok to walk away after decades of success whatever the reason. Chances are, they’ve already proven themselves more than capable of success regardless the parameters of the sport. The hate is just that, hate. It’s the winners burden.
Sunday, April 4, 2021
The Final
Gonzaga versus Baylor was the ultimate destination this season was on. Rarely do we get 1 versus 2 in this sport at the end of the season. While Baylor went through the motions post-Covid break, they’ve locked back in and thoroughly humiliated a very good Houston team. They’d still be a statistical outlier should they win Monday night but wouldn’t be a surprise to win.
We should stop and appreciate what a brilliant game we saw last night between Gonzaga and UCLA. UCLA came out and kept throwing uppercuts at Gonzaga who took blow after blow and found a way to win. We’ll know after Monday’s game if it’s an all-time classic (They have to win the whole thing for it to match the pantheon of Duke-UK). That’s a game that deserved a full arena.
As for the game, KenPom has Gonzaga by 4, with a 65% win probability. I think it’s closer than that just because Baylor won’t flinch and are every bit as good as UCLA. The one thing I’ll come back to is, even as well as Baylor has played in this tournament, there have been moments where they get disinterested. It’s not sloppy, it’s a stretch where the defense is exposed. If they have that 10 minute stretch against Gonzaga, they’ll be hard pressed to pull the upset.
The Pick: Gonzaga 84 Baylor 79