1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Texas St(Sbelt)/ PVA&M (SWAC)
Baylor (B12) vs NC A&T(MEAC)/S.Dakota(Smmt)
Michigan (B1G) vs James Madison (Col)
Ohio State vs Bryant (NEC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Alabama (SEC) vs Grand Canyon (WAC)
Illinois vs Siena (MAAC)
Villanova (Beast) vs Vermont(Aeast)
Iowa vs E.Washington (Bsky)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Virginia (ACC) vs UNC-Greensboro (SoCon)
Oklahoma vs Liberty (Asun)
Texas vs North Texas (Cusa)
West Virginia vs Abilene Christian (Sland)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Texas Tech vs Belmont (OVC)
Houston vs Colgate (Pat)
Florida St vs UCSB (Bwest)
Tennessee vs Wright State
5 seed vs 12 seed
USC (P12) vs Toledo (MAC)
Virginia Tech vs Winthrop (Bsouth)
Kansas vs Stanford/Seton Hall
Missouri vs Drake/Colorado St
6 seed vs 11 seed
Purdue vs Minnesota
Wisconsin vs Wichita St (AAC)
Creighton vs Indiana
Oklahoma St vs Connecticut
7 seed vs 10 seed
Florida vs VCU (A10)
Clemson vs Oregon
UCLA vs Saint Louis
Arkansas vs Boise St (Mwest)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Colorado vs Loyola (Mvalley)
Rutgers vs San Diego St
Louisville vs LSU
BYU vs Xavier

First Four Out

St. John's

North Carolina

St. Bonaventure

Utah State

Next Four Out

Syracuse

Maryland

SMU

W. Kentucky

Also Considered

Pittsburgh

Memphis

Dayton

Providence

Michigan State

Louisiana Tech

Duke

UAB

Richmond

Bubble Games Tonight

  

Houston vs Wichita State (First Four out)

BYU (9 seed) vs Pacific

St. Mary’s (Also Considered) vs Gonzaga

Rutgers (7 seed) vs Michigan 

Colorado (8 seed) vs Oregon (10 seed)

Hiring the Right Coach: Part 4-The Assistant

Since the end of the 2010 season, 16 job openings have been filled by assistant coaches. We can break these down into two types, the promotion from within and the hire off another staff.

Promoted From Within

Ten coaches have been promoted from within, either replacing fired coaches or coaches that left or retired.

Of the 10, we can eliminate Brandon Miller of Butler who left after 1 season. An argument can be made he was a success since he brought Chris Holtmann aboard from a head spot at Gardner-Webb but his one season can’t be quantified.

The failure include James Johnson who replaced Seth Greenberg at Virginia Tech, Wyking Jones who replaced Cuonzo Martin at Cal and Kevin Ollie at UConn. Ollie won a national title with largely Jim Calhoun players and didn’t do anything afterwards and would eventually be fired with cause and be given a show-cause. UConn has not been the same program it was when he took over, national title and all.

I’m not sure where Mike Boynton of Oklahoma State and Tim Jankovich of SMU fall at the moment. Both programs are having decent seasons. Jankovich had a great team in 2016-17 but regressed mightily prior to this season

We can classify Greg Gard as a success along with Chris Holtmann at Butler. I believe we have to wait and see with regards to Aaron McKie at Temple and Travis Steele at Xavier.

Hired From Outside

Of these 6, 2 were abject failures. Ricky Ray hired from Clemson to take over Mississippi State did not work out for either party. Orlando Antigua was a train wreck at South Florida coming over from Kentucky.

3 of the hires were long-term assistants for coaching legends. Chris Collins and Steve Wojociehowski left Duke for Northwestern and Marquette. Mike Hopkins left Syracuse for Washington. None of them would be considered the heir apparents anymore from where they left. Each has had some middling success but all 3 sit on the hot seat.

Finally, Danny Manning was hired at Tulsa off the Kansas bench. He would make one tournament and bolt for Wake Forest where he would be unceremoniously fired.

Of all the names mentioned, Kevin Ollie is the only one with a Final 4 and his tenure ended with a show cause and probation. The best of the lot is Greg Gard, a coach who was doing a lot of heavy lifting well before he got promoted. Interestingly enough, there was enough scuttlebutt to suggest King Barry didn’t want to hire him.

Butler and Xavier followed a model that has worked for decades. The problem is, they haven’t found their Mark Few to stay in place. Breeding great coaches is awesome. Losing them every few years isn’t.

I think an argument can be made, if it’s not from within, hiring an assistant without any head coaching expereince is a risky proposition.

Hiring the Right Coach: Part 3: The Lateral Move

In this next category, we’ll explore guys leaving jobs while under contract for another job for one of the football 5 jobs or a job in the Big East or AAC. While we can debate the merits of one job versus another, that’s a debate for another time. Chris Holtmann was never going to get paid at Butler like he does at Ohio State but there isn’t much of a reason Brad Underwood couldn’t get paid and be successful at Oklahoma State versus Illinois.

There have been 16 moves I consider lateral since the end of the 2010 season. Two of them include Mick Cronin from Cincinnati to UCLA and Buzz Williams from Virginia Tech to Texas A&M prior to the 2019 season. It’s too early to judge either of those tenures and given the pandemic, we’reprobably at least two more years from having a real good idea.

A third is Cuonzo Martin (He’ll be mentioned again later). He’s had a good year at Missouri this year after leaving Cal 4 years ago. His previous 3 seasons at Missouri have been good his 1st season and bad the last 2. That said, at the moment, I’d think Tigers fans are happy with him.

Speaking of Buzz, he is one of the 4 lateral hires I’d rate a success of the 14 remaining. His move from Marquette to Virginia Tech was a rousing success. In fact, it continues to be as Mike Young has built positively on the foundation laid by Buzz. I also categorize the aforementioned hires of Holtmann and Underwood as successes, too.

I wrestled with Frank Martin’s tenure at South Carolina. He’s only made one tournament but he took the Gamecocks to a Final 4 and they were a bubble team last year. This is his 9th year at USC East and this year has been bad and the seat is warm but in a place where football still rules, that one Final 4 makes him a success.

I’d categorize the rest as failures or disappointments at best. This includes Jeff Bzdelik at Wake Forest from Colorado, Trent Johnson from LSU to TCU, Mike Anderson from Mizzou to Arkansas, Cuonzo Martin from Tennessee to Cal, Josh Pastner from Memphis to Georgia Tech, Kevin Stallings from Vandy to Pitt, Frank Haith from Mizzou to Tulsa, Tubby Smith from Texas Tech to Memphis and Jamie Dixon from Pitt to TCU.

A few of those coaches got out before getting fired. Trent Johnson was on the hot seat at LSU as was Pastner at Memphis and Stallings at Vandy. Cuonzo left Tennessee feeling disrespected after replacing Bruce Pearl and while making the tourney at Cal, he wasn’t a long-term answer and was looking for anything, including Marquette at the time. Given Cal’s struggles since he left, he didn’t leave it better than he found it.

Mike Anderson was an assistant under Nolan Richardson and was seen as a natural fit at Arkansas but he only made the tournament 3 out of 8 years and never made the 2nd weekend. Tubby was a disaster at Memphis.

Jamie Dixon’s first two seasons at TCU were quite good but even then, his best Big XII record is .500. They’ve progressively gotten worse the last 3 seasons and are a sub-100 KenPom team at the moment. Couple that with his flirtations elsewhere while at TCU and we can see where this is heading.

What does this mean? Well, I think a lateral hire has shown that it’s a risky proposition. Underwood and Holtmann are almost unicorns. If Oklahoma State acts like a school committed to winning, Underwood doesn’t leave. He didn’t have any Big Ten ties and was a Frank Martin disciple. Holtmann may have left Butler at some point but is probably still there if Thad Matta doesn’t have to retire. Butler has been snake bitten by late cycle hires.

A lot of times, you’re bringing in a coach looking for a place to fall or a coaching vagabond such as Buzz Williams and you get lucky. Some of the coaches mentioned here are on the hot seat now or getting there. 

Monday Bracketology

 

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Texas St(Sbelt)/ PVA&M (SWAC)

Baylor (B12) vs NC A&T(MEAC)/CleveSt(Hor)

Michigan (B1G) vs James Madison (Col)

Ohio State vs Bryant (NEC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Alabama (SEC) vs Grand Canyon (WAC)

Illinois vs Siena (MAAC)

Villanova (Beast) vs S. Dakota St (Summit)

Houston (AAC) vs E.Washington (Bsky)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Virginia (ACC) vs UNC-Greensboro (SoCon)

Texas Tech vs Liberty (Asun)

Iowa vs Vermont(Aeast)

Texas vs Abilene Christian (Sland)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Oklahoma vs Belmont (OVC)

West Virginia vs Colgate (Pat)

Missouri vs UCSB (Bwest)

Tennessee vs North Texas (Cusa)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Florida St vs Toledo (MAC)

Florida vs Winthrop (Bsouth)

USC (P12) vs Stanford/Seton Hall

Virginia Tech vs Drake/Colorado St

6 seed vs 11 seed

Wisconsin vs St. Bonaventure

Kansas vs Indiana

Creighton vs Connecticut

Purdue vs Utah State (Mwest)

7 seed vs 10 seed

Oklahoma St vs VCU (A10)

Clemson vs Oregon

Rutgers vs Saint Louis

Arkansas vs LSU

8 seed vs 9 seed

Colorado vs Loyola (Mvalley)

Minnesota vs San Diego St

Louisville vs BYU

UCLA vs Xavier

 

First Four Out

Boise St

Wichita St

St. John's

North Carolina

Next Four Out

Syracuse

Richmond

SMU

W. Kentucky

Also Considered

Penn State

Pittsburgh

St. Mary's

Memphis

Dayton

Providence

Michigan State

Louisiana Tech

Davidson

Duke

Maryland

UAB

Hiring The Right Coach: Part 2 - Retreads and NBA Guys

In this section, we’ll breakdown guys hired out of the NBA and guys hired after being fired elsewhere.

NBA Guys:

Since 2010, 8 guys have been hired from the NBA. This doesn’t include Fred Hoiberg who Nebraska hired last year. Hoiberg’s trip to the NBA and back to college wasn’t unexpected. Secondly, he hasn’t had an opportunity to put his stamp on the Nebraska program.

Of the 8 hires, it’s been a mixed bag. Mike Dunleavy to Tulane in 2017 was bizarre at the time and the results weren’t good. Eddie Jordan took the Rutgers job following the Mike Rice disaster and failed to record a winning season. Chris Mullin came from the NBA with no coaching pedigree and while managing a tournament  bid, his tenure at St. John’s wasn’t very good. Avery Johnson was a bust at Alabama and his successor has been wildly successful.

There are 3 guys still coaching who came from the NBA. Two are school alum, Patrick Ewing at Georgetown and Juwan Howard at Michigan. Ewing has spun his wheels while Howard has Michigan inline for a 1-seed in his 2nd season, something even his predecessor didn’t accomplish. Both coaches arrived with solid pedigrees within the coaching world unlike Chris Mullin.

Jerry Stackhouse is at Vandy and while his team was bad last year and better this year, he’s staring 2 consecutive sub-100 KenPom seasons in the face.

Larry Brown was brought into SMU to rejuvenate the program and did just that. 

It’s a small sample size but dipping your toes into the NBA for your coach hasn’t been a recipe for success.

Fired and Rehired:

There have been 16 of these type of hires since 2010. I’ve classified 5 of these as failures and 6 as good hires. There are 5 still I’d classify as works in progress.

Some of these coaches come with baggage. They include Bruce Pearl, Mark Gottfried, Billy Gillespie and Kelvin Sampson. Some had worn out there welcome elsewhere. Those include Tubby Smith, Rick Barnes, Johnny Dawkins, Bruce Weber and Mike Anderson.

I classify Mark Gottfried as a failure at NC State because of his NCAA run-ins. Billy Gillespie was eventually fired at TCU. Ernie Kent was fired at Washington State while Dave Leitao and Brian Gregory are currently floundering at DePaul and South Florida respectively.

Tubby Smith was a success at Texas Tech, taking them to the tournament before bolting for Memphis. It set a foundation that Chris Beard has built upon. Bruce Pearl has taken Auburn to a Final 4 (this could go the other way with the NCAA investigating and all), Rick Barnes has been fantastic at Tennessee and Johnny Dawkins took UCF to a tournament and before this season hadn’t had a losing record there. Kelvin Sampson has done wonders at Houston.

I placed Bruce Weber as a success as he did help Kansas State to a share of a Big XII title and given the challenges of coaching there with Kansas looming large, I think he’s done a respectable job. That said, a fresh start might be needed there.

The jury is out on Tom Crean at Georgia, Jeff Capel at Pitt, Mike Anderson at St. John’s, Mark Fox at Cal and Ben Howland at Mississippi State. Howland is now in his 6th year in Starkville and was probably a tourney team last year. They won’t be this year but I don’t know the realistic expectations at Mississippi State. Of the bunch, Jeff Capel seems to have the most momentum forward.

As we can see, it’s a mixed bag hiring fired coaches. Pearl and Sampson have been wildly successful but at least in Pearl’s case, the law is closing in. As is sometimes the case, a change of scenery can do wonders like it did for Rick Barnes.

Is it the way to go? Of the guys listed, only Bruce Pearl managed to get his program to a Final 4 and as often as there’s been success, there has been failure.

Hiring the Right Coach: Part 1

With the mess at Marquette, I decided to do some research and see how a program should go about hiring a coach. Is there a right way? What works best or seems to work best. I’ve compiled the coaching changes of the last decade for this study. I think this is a good baseline for where the sport is today and I believe it’s in a much different spot than 20 years ago.

I’ve broken it down into 4 categories. The first is what I categorized as retreads/NBA hires. This category will include hires from the NBA or fired coaches. I put them together instead of separating them. These hires sometimes tend to be desperate, risky or a call back to another time.

The second is lateral hires, coaches moving from one of the Power 5 leagues or Big East and American to a job in one of these leagues. For the sake of this look, I’m including Archie Miller moving from Dayton to Indiana as Miller had established Dayton as something more than a mid-major. Some jobs are better and clear step-ups but I think they fit here. 

The third category will include assistants being promoted from within or pulled from another staff. This is a pretty simple category.

The final category is the largest and has some mini categories within worth exploring. This category will be the move from a mid-major to high major (Power 5, Big East and American).

I did not include any mid-major hires. Many mid-majors are stronger programs than many majors but for the sake of this look, I limited it to the leagues outlined. This means I excluded the Mountain West and A-10 amongst others. 

In this introduction, we should note the programs who have not made any changes this last decade. You’ll notice a theme and a few surprises. Four of the programs are Utah, Providence, Maryland and Oklahoma who hired their current coaches prior to the 2011 season.

The other schools in this category include Colorado, Arizona, Oregon, Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Virginia, Florida State, Clemson, Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Michigan State, Purdue, Iowa, Kentucky, Creighton, Villanova and Seton Hall.

Of the past 9 years (2020 cancelled), 6 national champions are on the list above and half the Final Four participants of the last 9 tournaments are listed above. Make of that what you will.

Part 2 will be posted in the next day or two.