Wednesday, February 5, 2014
Bubble: A-10 and More Edition
Today’s Bubble Snapshot figures heavily on the Atlantic 10. Our current bracket has the A-10 receiving 4 bids while 4 others fall in our First Four Out, Next Four Out, or Also Considered. Tonight’s action will go a long way to sorting the A-10 out. Richmond, Dayton, LaSalle, and St. Joseph’s are all on the wrong side of the bubble and all play winnable games. They need to win these games so when they play each other it means more. When all is said and done I think they end up with 5 bids.
In other bubble news Tennessee travels to Vanderbilt where it’s in their best interest to grab a road win. A loss might knock them out of the bracket. In the B1G, the Gophers go to Purdue to try and feast on the Big 10 bottom half. Time for Minnesota to show who they really are.
Out west we have Stanford at California which will be a good win for one of the teams. Both are on the bubble and knocking each other off can be helpful come March. Boise State hosts San Diego State and they need a win bad. They have no top 50 wins and this would be huge. I think they get it done at home and jump up to one of the First Four Out.
In the game of the night Wichita State travels to Indiana State. This would be the Sycamore’s last chance to get a signature win. If they lose its auto-bid or bust for them. No prediction; just sit back and enjoy.
Tuesday, February 4, 2014
Bubble Quick Hitters
Teams in that have a little room for a loss
Providence hosting St.John’s
North Carolina hosting Maryland
Ohio State at Iowa
Teams in that will fall out with a loss
Missouri at Florida
Teams out that could leap in with a win:
Baylor hosting Kansas
Teams out that need to win to stay relevant
Mississippi at Kentucky
Maryland at North Carolina
Clemson hosting Georgia Tech
Monday, February 3, 2014
Villanova
It's been an interesting year in the new Big East. One team that has thrived is the Villanova Wildcats. They're currently 19-2 and 7-1 in conference, tied for 1st. Villanova's two losses were a loss at Syracuse who lead the majority of the game and ran away and hid at the end and a game where Creighton simply couldn't miss. Villanova announced itself to the nation by winning the Battle for Atlantis where it pocketed wins over Kansas and Iowa.
Villanova is 9th overall in KenPom. They're slightly better offensively than defensively as they rate 8th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted d. Villanova lacks overall depth in size but does a lot of things well to negate this problem.
On offense, they're 24th in the nation in effective fg%. They're above average in protecting the ball. The WIldcats turnover % is 17.2%, 92nd. For a team that is supposed to have issues with size, they do a good job getting to their misses. Their offensive rebounding % is a healthy 34.4%. The national rate is 31.6%. Also, despite being perimeter oriented, they get to the line. The Wildcats FTA/FGA is 48%, 43rd best in the land. In the paint, they shoot 55%, 8th best overall. They share the ball. Their A/FGM is 61.4%, 17th best. There's a lot to like to their efficient offense. As for tempo, they average about 1 more possession per game than the national clip.
Teams have an effective fg% of 46.2% against Villanova. They force some turnovers. Opponents turnover % is 20.3%. They also do an adequate to above-average job on the defensive glass holding opponents to an offensive rebounding % of 29.7%. That's 93rd best. Again, considering concerns about their lack of height, that's good. Teams only shoot 42.8% in the paint against Villanova. That ranks 20th.
The main cog in the Villanoa attack is senior guard, James Bell.Bell averages 15.3ppg while shooting 38% from 3. Bell is a good rebounder, too, getting nearly 6 a game. 6'7" junior F, JayVaughn Pinkston also gives the Wildcats 15 and 6, shooting 54% from 2. Junior G Darrun Hilliard adds 13.5 while shooting 38.5% from deep. Freshman Josh Hart has an effective fg 5 of 64.4%. He's 38-54 from 2 and 21-54 from deep. Surprisingly, he only shoots 64% at the line. The Wildcats big man is sophomore Daniel Ochefu. Ochefu isn't a huge offensive presence, scoring 6ppg but adds rebounding on both sides of the ball and is a threat to swat some shots. His offensive rebounding % is 12.5% and defensively, it's 19.5%. He should only get better.
Their best player is arguably, sophomore guard Ryan Arcidianco. He runs the point and gets 10 points per game but is capable of carrying a larger load on the offensive end. He'll be a thorn in the side of Big East opponents this and the next two years.
Villanova was pegged as a tournament team prior to the season and have probably exceeded expectations. They've answered concerns about their size and it would be interesting to see how much better their defensive numbers would be if you took the Creighton game out (That game was truly remarkable and a n outlier). No reason they can't be a Sweet 16 team and maybe better. They lose Bell next season but should still be better next year. Things are looking bright in Philly for Jay Wright and the Wildcats.
Villanova is 9th overall in KenPom. They're slightly better offensively than defensively as they rate 8th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted d. Villanova lacks overall depth in size but does a lot of things well to negate this problem.
On offense, they're 24th in the nation in effective fg%. They're above average in protecting the ball. The WIldcats turnover % is 17.2%, 92nd. For a team that is supposed to have issues with size, they do a good job getting to their misses. Their offensive rebounding % is a healthy 34.4%. The national rate is 31.6%. Also, despite being perimeter oriented, they get to the line. The Wildcats FTA/FGA is 48%, 43rd best in the land. In the paint, they shoot 55%, 8th best overall. They share the ball. Their A/FGM is 61.4%, 17th best. There's a lot to like to their efficient offense. As for tempo, they average about 1 more possession per game than the national clip.
Teams have an effective fg% of 46.2% against Villanova. They force some turnovers. Opponents turnover % is 20.3%. They also do an adequate to above-average job on the defensive glass holding opponents to an offensive rebounding % of 29.7%. That's 93rd best. Again, considering concerns about their lack of height, that's good. Teams only shoot 42.8% in the paint against Villanova. That ranks 20th.
The main cog in the Villanoa attack is senior guard, James Bell.Bell averages 15.3ppg while shooting 38% from 3. Bell is a good rebounder, too, getting nearly 6 a game. 6'7" junior F, JayVaughn Pinkston also gives the Wildcats 15 and 6, shooting 54% from 2. Junior G Darrun Hilliard adds 13.5 while shooting 38.5% from deep. Freshman Josh Hart has an effective fg 5 of 64.4%. He's 38-54 from 2 and 21-54 from deep. Surprisingly, he only shoots 64% at the line. The Wildcats big man is sophomore Daniel Ochefu. Ochefu isn't a huge offensive presence, scoring 6ppg but adds rebounding on both sides of the ball and is a threat to swat some shots. His offensive rebounding % is 12.5% and defensively, it's 19.5%. He should only get better.
Their best player is arguably, sophomore guard Ryan Arcidianco. He runs the point and gets 10 points per game but is capable of carrying a larger load on the offensive end. He'll be a thorn in the side of Big East opponents this and the next two years.
Villanova was pegged as a tournament team prior to the season and have probably exceeded expectations. They've answered concerns about their size and it would be interesting to see how much better their defensive numbers would be if you took the Creighton game out (That game was truly remarkable and a n outlier). No reason they can't be a Sweet 16 team and maybe better. They lose Bell next season but should still be better next year. Things are looking bright in Philly for Jay Wright and the Wildcats.
Tonight's Games
There’s not a lot of games for Bubble teams but Iowa State vs Oklahoma State should be worth watching. Xavier travels to Villanova and may need to win to stay out of the 11-12 seed level. If the Musketeers can pull off a road upset they could see their computer numbers sky rocket. Currently they are a 10 seed but have the mobility to move 2 seeds with a signature win. The other game of note is Georgetown at DePaul. The Hoyas are currently one of my Next Four Out and a win won’t move them up but a loss will be crippling. Georgetown got a big win over Michigan State this weekend and need to avoid a hangover tonight.
Monday Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Syracuse (ACC) vs Southern(SWAC)/Weber St(Bsky)
Arizona (P12) vs Chattanoga(SoCon)/CoastCar(Bsouth)
Wichita State (MVC) vs Robert Morris (NEC)
Florida (SEC) vs Utah Valley (WAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
San Diego St (MWC) vs Murray State (OVC)
Kansas (B12) vs Stony Brook (Aest)
Villanova vs NC-Central (MEAC)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs IPFW (Summit)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Michigan (B1G) vs American (Pat)
Michigan State vs UCSB (Bwest)
Iowa State vs Canisius (MAAC)
Creighton (Beast) vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Kentucky vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
Iowa vs Delaware (Colonial)
Duke vs Mercer(Asun)
Oklahoma vs Toledo (MAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wisconsin vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
Virginia vs BYU/LSU
St. Louis (A10) vs SMU/Tennessee
Texas vs Arizona State
6 seed vs 11 seed
Louisville vs Missouri
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Florida State
Oklahoma State vs Minnesota
Connecticut vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Memphis vs Stanford
Massachusettes vs California
UCLA vs Xavier
Pittsburgh vs Southern Miss (Cusa)
8 seed vs 9 seed
New Mexico vs Providence
Ohio State vs Colorado
North Carolina vs Kansas State
VCU vs George Washington
First Four Out
Oregon
Baylor
Maryland
Clemson
Next Four Out
Indiana
Georgetown
Wyoming
Dayton
Also Considered
Boise State
Wake Forest
LaSalle
North Carolina St
UTEP
Mississippi
St. Mary's
UNLV
Indiana State
Richmond
Arkansas
Louisiana Tech
Ohio
Sunday, February 2, 2014
Quick Sunday Musings
- Duke lost at Syracuse but showed quite a bit. They lost Jefferson and Parker for a good chunk of the 2nd half and all of overtime and still had a chance to win. Jefferson is becoming a force on the offensive glass. Marshall Plumlee is basically a zero on offense so Jefferson needs to stay out of foul trouble. Duke is up to 3rd in KenPom, right behind Syracuse.
- The B1G is overrated. Don't believe the hype
- Arizona lost late on the Pac-12 network but remains #1 in KenPom. More importantly, they might have lost Brandon Ashley for the season. They've been playing with fire lately so a loss at Cal isn't a huge surprise.
- Kudos to Texas for their 4th straight win over a ranked opponent.
- With a decisive win over Memphis, SMU is making a strong case to dance. Can the American get 5 teams? They might
- UMass lost at St. Joe's and now have 3 losses in the A-10. They have a RPI of 8 so they should be safe but they haven't played well in conference
Saturday, February 1, 2014
The Tough Guys of the American, Cincinnati
The cliche speak from coaches about and announcers about "toughness" grates at me. What exactly defines toughness? Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin told ESPN's Jeff Goodman following Thursday's win at Louisville, he had the 3 "toughest seniors" in college basketball in Titus Rubles, Sean Kilpatrick and Justin Jackson. After watching them jump on Lousiville, withstand the Louisville rush and ultimately put them away on defense, I think Coach Cronin isn't full of hyperbole when describing his seniors.
Cincinnati is currently 20-2 and undefeated in conference play (The horribly named The American Athletic Conference). Cincinnati's two losses this year came at New Mexico who was handling nearly everyone in December and a "neutral" court loss to in-city rival Xavier. The Bearcats have won at Louisville and at Memphis in conference and have a win at MSG over Pitt. You may recall that 48 posssession masterrpiece from Cincinnati. They won 44-43 in a game only Dick Bennett could love.
As you might imagine, the Bearcats are one of the nations best defensive teams. Teams effective fg% against is 43.9%, 17th best in the land, built partly on teams shooting only 41% in the paints, 4th best in the nation. They also force turnovers. Bearcats defensive turnover % is 23.9%, 7th best in the land. They also have a block % of 17.2% and a steal % of 12.9%, 6th and 8th best. Cincinnati is going to make you work on offense. They have one issue. They're 241st in defensive rebounding % so teams can get longer possessions against them if they're strong on the offensive glass. They are 5th overall in KenPom adjusted d rankings.
Offensively, they're not as dynamic. They're 92nd in adjusted offense and would rather play in the low 60s. They average 54 possessions per game, 302nd. They're a poor shooting team. They're 215th in effective offensive fg%. They protect the ball okay, just above average in turnover %. WEhile they're soft on the defensive glass, the Bearcats are 7th best at getting 2nd chance points. They have an offensive rebounding % of 40.3%.
I mentioned the 3 seniors earlier and they truly are the heart and soul of this ball club. Sean Kilpatrick is the go-to-guy. He scores 19.5ppg. He's joined by two forwards, Justin Jackson and Titus Rubles. Jackson is a monster in the paint. He "only" gets 11.1 and 7 boards per game but has a block % of 13.7%, 7th best and a steal % of 4.1%, 38th best. His effective fg% is 55.1% and has an offensive rebounding % of 14.3%, 38th best. If you're so inclined, watch him play without the ball on offense and defense. The guy knows the game. He is awful at the foul line, shooting 49% and that'll be a cause for concern. Rubles adds 7 and 6.
If you're looking for a Final Four sleeper in March, the Bearcats might be your team. I have questions about their offense but there isn't any questioning the defense. If you believe in toughness and senior leadership, this is your team.
Cincinnati is currently 20-2 and undefeated in conference play (The horribly named The American Athletic Conference). Cincinnati's two losses this year came at New Mexico who was handling nearly everyone in December and a "neutral" court loss to in-city rival Xavier. The Bearcats have won at Louisville and at Memphis in conference and have a win at MSG over Pitt. You may recall that 48 posssession masterrpiece from Cincinnati. They won 44-43 in a game only Dick Bennett could love.
As you might imagine, the Bearcats are one of the nations best defensive teams. Teams effective fg% against is 43.9%, 17th best in the land, built partly on teams shooting only 41% in the paints, 4th best in the nation. They also force turnovers. Bearcats defensive turnover % is 23.9%, 7th best in the land. They also have a block % of 17.2% and a steal % of 12.9%, 6th and 8th best. Cincinnati is going to make you work on offense. They have one issue. They're 241st in defensive rebounding % so teams can get longer possessions against them if they're strong on the offensive glass. They are 5th overall in KenPom adjusted d rankings.
Offensively, they're not as dynamic. They're 92nd in adjusted offense and would rather play in the low 60s. They average 54 possessions per game, 302nd. They're a poor shooting team. They're 215th in effective offensive fg%. They protect the ball okay, just above average in turnover %. WEhile they're soft on the defensive glass, the Bearcats are 7th best at getting 2nd chance points. They have an offensive rebounding % of 40.3%.
I mentioned the 3 seniors earlier and they truly are the heart and soul of this ball club. Sean Kilpatrick is the go-to-guy. He scores 19.5ppg. He's joined by two forwards, Justin Jackson and Titus Rubles. Jackson is a monster in the paint. He "only" gets 11.1 and 7 boards per game but has a block % of 13.7%, 7th best and a steal % of 4.1%, 38th best. His effective fg% is 55.1% and has an offensive rebounding % of 14.3%, 38th best. If you're so inclined, watch him play without the ball on offense and defense. The guy knows the game. He is awful at the foul line, shooting 49% and that'll be a cause for concern. Rubles adds 7 and 6.
If you're looking for a Final Four sleeper in March, the Bearcats might be your team. I have questions about their offense but there isn't any questioning the defense. If you believe in toughness and senior leadership, this is your team.
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