TWO-WEEK OVERREACTION TIME

1. The Big XII is going to be a bloodbath.  7 teams in the top 20 of KenPom currently.  The league will get weighed down by the bottom third as the season continues, but the top third is going to be capable of making a Final 4.

2. However, Arizona has a Caleb Love problem.  Trendy pick for All-American, he’ll get his shots and I think that’ll be a problem for them.  Big test for Tommy Lloyd to figure it out.

3. Kentucky will be less sexy without Cal but probably a better at playing basketball team. Will be curious to watch them at Clemson next month and against Gonzaga. Sweet 16 seems like a ceiling but I think I’m buying Mark Pope stock?

4. Matt Norlander had the best reaction to Arizona-UW-Madison game. He doesn’t know what to take from it. Arizona dominated the boards but didn’t make 3’s. Wisconsin did. Ref show of epic proportion. Might be a game we look back at and ask how’d that happen?

5. Take a look at the daily schedule. Too many garbage games on the schedule. It’ll only get worse as power conferences continue to move away from NCAA governance. Not sure what the answer is, but way too many D-III teams getting games.

Kurly’s Incredible and Bold ‘24-‘25 Predictions

National Champ:  Gonzaga over Duke 

Final Four Others:  Texas Tech, Arizona

3 Who Will Overachieve:  Providence, Louisville & Notre Dame 

3 Who Will Underachieve:  Kansas, Texas A&M & Alabama

POY: Cooper Flagg, Duke

COY: Grant McCasland, Texas Tech

All-Americans (Position-less):

Cooper Flagg, Duke

Kam Jones, Marquette

Ryan Nembhard, Gonzaga 

Alex Karaban, UConn

RJ Davis, UNC

Preseason Top 25

 

1. Alabama

2. Houston

3. Connecticut

4. Duke

5. Kansas

6. Gonzaga

7. Iowa State

8. Tennessee

9. Auburn

10. Arkansas

11. North Carolina

12. Baylor

13. Texas A&M

14. Creighton

15. Arizona

16. BYU

17. Marquette

18. Purdue

19. Rutgers

20. Florida

21. Texas Tech

22. Texas

23. Xavier

24. Boise State

25. Cincinnati

2024-2025 Season

We are less than a week away from College Basketball.  Mini Preview coming.... 

Elite 8 Sunday

Midwest Region: 1. Purdue vs. 2. Tennessee

Brian and I were exchanging texts on Friday night where I said I think we’re simply steamrolling to a Purdue-UConn final. Tennessee’s 18-0 run against Creighton gave me pause and then they almost blew it.

The Pick: Purdue 74 Tennessee 69

South Region: 4. Duke vs. 11. NC State

We’ve now arrived at the stage where NC State is no longer cute but annoying. I get it, the world hates Duke, but do we want Purdue-NC State? I think not.

The Pick: Duke 78 NC State 73

Elite 8 Saturday

East: 1. UConn vs. 3. Illinois

UConn played their C game for a half against SDSU and then won by 30. Illinois jumped Iowa State and held on, but never really felt threatened, answering each Iowa State bucket that made it a one possession game. Impressive stuff in its own right.

Ultimately, I simply think UConn is better. Illinois can certainly shoot themselves to an upset but I have my doubts they get enough stops to fend off UConn like they did the Clones.

The Pick: UConn 82 Illinois 77

West: 4. Alabama vs. 6. Clemson

Of all the permeations you could get from the top-8 teams of this region, this one somehow feels the least likely. Neither marched in triumphantly to March.

Both got some help in the Sweet 16. UNC went ice cold in the second half from deep and they had looks. Arizona had plenty of good looks, too. Clemson didn’t do anything special to them. If I’m a UNC or Arizona fan today, I’m still confused how we lost.

Between the 2, Clemson’s win felt flukier. Banked 3’s, bail out hook shots and other makes at the shot clock. They also gave up a lot of early offensive rebounds against Zona. Zona missed a lot of second and third chances. Not sure Clemson can do that against Bama who also cleans the offensive glass. Also, I’m still bitter about the Tigers not beating the Gooophers in ‘97.

The Pick: Alabama 91 Clemson 78

Sweet 16 Midwest Preview

1. Purdue vs. 5. Gonzaga 

Another Sweet 16 for the Zags. Say what you will about them, but that is impressive in this day and age to continually be in the Sweet 16. Great teams get upset on opening weekend all the time. Great programs have down years all the time. Should probably appreciate the Zags.

As for the game, I want to find a reason to pick the Zags. Purdue can be dicey with the ball but Gonzaga typically doesn’t turn opponents over. The Zags don’t put teams on the line but Purdue is a different creature from anything any team has seen in that regard.

To win this game, the Zags need to be bucket getters. I’d also let Edey get his and pressure the Purdue guards. You’re probably not stopping Edey but if you can make the guys around him minuses, you have a chance. I don’t think the Zags are that team.

The Pick: Purdue 81 Gonzaga 79

2. Tennessee vs. 3. Creighton

The BlueJays return to the Sweet 16 and bring with them another top-25 defense predicated on not fouling and forcing bad shots. Worst team when it comes to forcing turnovers in the nation. Why do I think this matters? Tennessee’s offense is good, but not great, capable of clunkers.

Tennessee’s defense is 3rd in KenPom based largely on the nations 3rd best defensive effective fg%. They will foul a bit and good, not great at the other 2 4 Factors. Creighton rarely gets to the line, though, and is a weak offensive rebounding team, so that’s a wash.

Creighton’s offense is 11th in KenPom with the 3rd best offensive effective fg%. Another clash in numbers in the night games. This could be a classic.

The Pick: Creighton 66 Tennessee 65