National Champ: Gonzaga over Duke
Final Four Others: Texas Tech, Arizona
3 Who Will Overachieve: Providence, Louisville & Notre Dame
3 Who Will Underachieve: Kansas, Texas A&M & Alabama
POY: Cooper Flagg, Duke
COY: Grant McCasland, Texas Tech
All-Americans (Position-less):
Cooper Flagg, Duke
Kam Jones, Marquette
Ryan Nembhard, Gonzaga
Alex Karaban, UConn
RJ Davis, UNC
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1. Alabama |
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2. Houston |
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3. Connecticut |
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4. Duke |
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5. Kansas |
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6. Gonzaga |
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7. Iowa State |
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8. Tennessee |
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9. Auburn |
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10. Arkansas |
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11. North Carolina |
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12. Baylor |
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13. Texas A&M |
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14. Creighton |
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15. Arizona |
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16. BYU |
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17. Marquette |
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18. Purdue |
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19. Rutgers |
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20. Florida |
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21. Texas Tech |
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22. Texas |
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23. Xavier |
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24. Boise State |
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25. Cincinnati |
Midwest Region: 1. Purdue vs. 2. Tennessee
Brian and I were exchanging texts on Friday night where I said I think we’re simply steamrolling to a Purdue-UConn final. Tennessee’s 18-0 run against Creighton gave me pause and then they almost blew it.
The Pick: Purdue 74 Tennessee 69
South Region: 4. Duke vs. 11. NC State
We’ve now arrived at the stage where NC State is no longer cute but annoying. I get it, the world hates Duke, but do we want Purdue-NC State? I think not.
The Pick: Duke 78 NC State 73
East: 1. UConn vs. 3. Illinois
UConn played their C game for a half against SDSU and then won by 30. Illinois jumped Iowa State and held on, but never really felt threatened, answering each Iowa State bucket that made it a one possession game. Impressive stuff in its own right.
Ultimately, I simply think UConn is better. Illinois can certainly shoot themselves to an upset but I have my doubts they get enough stops to fend off UConn like they did the Clones.
The Pick: UConn 82 Illinois 77
West: 4. Alabama vs. 6. Clemson
Of all the permeations you could get from the top-8 teams of this region, this one somehow feels the least likely. Neither marched in triumphantly to March.
Both got some help in the Sweet 16. UNC went ice cold in the second half from deep and they had looks. Arizona had plenty of good looks, too. Clemson didn’t do anything special to them. If I’m a UNC or Arizona fan today, I’m still confused how we lost.
Between the 2, Clemson’s win felt flukier. Banked 3’s, bail out hook shots and other makes at the shot clock. They also gave up a lot of early offensive rebounds against Zona. Zona missed a lot of second and third chances. Not sure Clemson can do that against Bama who also cleans the offensive glass. Also, I’m still bitter about the Tigers not beating the Gooophers in ‘97.
The Pick: Alabama 91 Clemson 78
1. Purdue vs. 5. Gonzaga
Another Sweet 16 for the Zags. Say what you will about them, but that is impressive in this day and age to continually be in the Sweet 16. Great teams get upset on opening weekend all the time. Great programs have down years all the time. Should probably appreciate the Zags.
As for the game, I want to find a reason to pick the Zags. Purdue can be dicey with the ball but Gonzaga typically doesn’t turn opponents over. The Zags don’t put teams on the line but Purdue is a different creature from anything any team has seen in that regard.
To win this game, the Zags need to be bucket getters. I’d also let Edey get his and pressure the Purdue guards. You’re probably not stopping Edey but if you can make the guys around him minuses, you have a chance. I don’t think the Zags are that team.
The Pick: Purdue 81 Gonzaga 79
2. Tennessee vs. 3. Creighton
The BlueJays return to the Sweet 16 and bring with them another top-25 defense predicated on not fouling and forcing bad shots. Worst team when it comes to forcing turnovers in the nation. Why do I think this matters? Tennessee’s offense is good, but not great, capable of clunkers.
Tennessee’s defense is 3rd in KenPom based largely on the nations 3rd best defensive effective fg%. They will foul a bit and good, not great at the other 2 4 Factors. Creighton rarely gets to the line, though, and is a weak offensive rebounding team, so that’s a wash.
Creighton’s offense is 11th in KenPom with the 3rd best offensive effective fg%. Another clash in numbers in the night games. This could be a classic.
The Pick: Creighton 66 Tennessee 65
2. Marquette vs. 11. NC State
Supposedly, they played for a title in 1974. Al McGuire got ejected before half. Imagine that today.
NC State rides a 7-game winning streak into this matchup and are an interesting team. Not great in anything other than not turning it over and not bad in anything. They’re an average team who has gotten hot or lucky, depending on how you look at it, at the right time.
Marquette is a poor rebounding team but NC State is average on the glass. Marquette thrives on turnovers but NC State doesn’t turn it over. Can Marquette increase NC State turnovers?
The difference for me is Marquette’s 55.5% effective offensive FG%. That’s an elite number and even if not turning NC State over, the offense should generate plenty of good looks. Plus, they’ll have the best player on the floor.
The Pick: Marquette 75 NC State 69
1. Houston vs. 4. Duke
Easily the best matchup of the 8 games, we have the KenPom number 2, Houston, against the KenPom number 6, Duke.
Houston likes to grind you down and play slow, but Duke isn’t exactly the showtime Lakers. They’re 245th in pace. Houston is an elite offensive rebounding team. Duke is a solid defensive rebounding team. If they can limit Houston’s second chance opportunities, that’ll be a great sign for Duke.
Duke shoots 38% from 3, 13th best in the nation. Opponents shoot 30% from 3 against Houston, 10th best in the nation. Duke has the 18th best effective offensive fg%, Houston is 2nd on the defensive side. Duke is 23rd in offensive turnover %, Houston is 3rd in defensive turnover %.
The game will come down to whether Duke is making shots and/or limiting second chance opportunities for Houston. If they turn it over and lose on the glass, winning will be hard. Tough game to predict.
The Pick: Duke 60 Houston 59
