Monday, January 30, 2017

Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Mt.St.Mary(NEC)/Weber St (Bsky)
Villanova (Beast) vs NCCU(MEAC)/UC-Davis(Bwest)
Baylor (B12) vs Sam Houston (Sland)
Kansas vs Texas Southern (SWAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Arizona (Pac14) vs GaSouthern (Sbelt)
Louisville vs Princeton (Ivy)
Kentucky (SEC) vs ETSU (SoCon)
North Carolina (ACC) vs ND State (Summit)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Cincinnati (AAC) vs Belmont (OVC)
Wisconsin vs Bucknell (Pat)
West Virginia vs Winthrop(Bsouth)
UCLA vs Florida Gulf Coast (Asun)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Virgina vs Vermont (Aeast)
Oregon vs Monmouth(MAAC)
Butler vs Valparasio (Hor)
Florida State vs New Mexico State (WAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Duke vs Akron (MAC)
Maryland (B14) vs Wichita State
Florida vs Kansas State/Georgia Tech
St. Mary's vs VCU/Miami
6 seed vs 11 seed
Purdue vs TCU
Notre Dame vs Texas Tech
Creighton vs Nevada (Mwest)
SMU vs California
7 seed vs 10 seed
Northwestern vs Seton Hall
Xavier vs Arkansas
South Carolina vs Middle Tenn St (C-USA)
Dayton (A10) vs UNC-Wilmington (Col)
8 seed vs 9 seed
USC vs Iowa State
Virginia Tech vs Indiana
Michigan State vs Marquette
Minnesota vs Illinois State (Mvalley)


First Four Out
Illinois
Clemson
NC State
Michigan
Next Four Out
Rhode Islandd
Utah
Georgia
Wake Forest
Also Considered
Ohio State
UT-Arlington
Houston
Mississippi
Memphis
Boise State
Penn State
LaSalle
Stanford
Alabama
Pittsburgh
Oklahoma State

Ranking the Modern Final Fours: 10-6

10. 1992 (Minneapolis): Arguably, the greatest game in college basketball history was played the weekend before the Final Four, the Duke-Kentucky regional final in Philadelphia. Still, this Final 4 was memorable. Duke was looking to repeat. Indiana and Bobby Knight (This would be his last Final 4) stood in his way along with Cincinnati and The Fab 5.

Duke knocked off Indiana in one national semi-final as Coach K defeated his mentor, Bobby Knight. Many people don't remember this game because of the Duke-KY game but this was a real good game. IU jumped out early to a 12-point lead but Duke went on a 31-6 run that spanned the end of the 1st half to the beginning of the 2nd half to take a 13-point lead. To their credit, Indiana cut it to 3 late behind 3 3-pointers in a :27 span by Todd Leary. A turnover by Bobby Hurley gave IU a chance to tie but they'd miss a 3. Duke made 2 free throws to take a 5-point lead. IU hit another 3 with :06 left but couldn't get all the way back as Cherokee Parks hit a FT with a tenth of a second left to guarantee a Duke win.

In the other semifinal, Michigan and their Fab 5 freshmen outlasted Nick Van Exel and Cincinnati. Michigan would take the first all-frosh starting lineup to the national title game.

The Fab Five would get their own 30 for 30 as would Christian Laettner, that's how important this title game was. Few recall, Duke blew the Fab 5 off the court in the second half, winning by 20 after being close at half. Duke became the first team since John Wooden's UCLA teams to repeat.

9. 2013 (Atlanta): Louisville was a popular pre-season pick to win their first national title since 1986 and when they reached Atlanta, two 4-seeds and a 9-seed Valley team stood in their way. What seemed like a foregone conclusion was instead a weekend of great games.

In the first semifinal, Louisville beat a game Wichita State team. The Shockers were not intimidated by the big stage. They lead going into half but the Cardinals would pull away late and win by 4 despite being down 12 with 13
Minutes left.

Michigan downed Syracuse in the second semi. The Wolverines enjoyed an 11-point halftime lead but the Orange whittled it down to 2 with :20 left. The Orange had a chance to tie but Howard Triche was called for a charge. Michigan only made one FT but Syracuse Trevor Cooney had his layup attempt block leading to a dunk on the other end, sealing a Michigan win.

Louisville would win the national title in a great game. Michigan lead at half behind 4 3-pointers from Spike Albrecht. Michigan was up 35-23 but Luke Hancock matched Albrecht with 4 3-pointers of his own. Louisville would build a 10-point lead with 3:20 left but Michigan managed to cut it to 4. Louisville would ultimately hang on and Rick Pitino had his 2nd title.

8. 1985 (Lexington): The year of the Big East culminated in Kentucky, where Georgetown, St. John's and Villanova all made the Final 4. Joining them would be Memphis State. What many thought would be a coronation of Georgetown instead provided us with one of the greatest upsets in tourney history.

The semifinals includes a blowout and slugfest. In one game, Georgetown smoked the Johnnies 77-59 blowing open a game the Hoyas lead by 4 at half. 8-seed Villanova beat 2-seed Memphis State 52-45 in the other game. 

In the title game, Villanova shocked Georgetown playing a near perfect game. The Hoyas were heavy favorites to repeat but Nova shot 78% from the field to become the unlikely champ. Villanova is the lowest seeded champ of all time. Georgetown has only appeared in one other Final 4 since then after making 3 in 4 years.

7. 1993 (New Orleans): Michigan was back in the Final 4 as they took their place in infamy, losing a second straight title game to Dean Smith and North Carolina.

North Carolina defeated Kansas in the first national semifinal, gaining a bit of revenge from 1991 when the Jayhawks and Roy Williams defeated his mentor in a national semifinal. Michigan won in overtime in the other game against Kentucky, 81-78. Kentucky lead 78-85 with 1:12 left but the Wolverines scored the final 6. 

The national title game is forever remembered for the timeout Chris Webber called that Michigan didn't have. The game itself saw Carolina lead for a majority of the game but Michigan was never out of it. With a chance late, Webber would get away with a travel that wasn't called but got caught in a double team and tried calling a timeout he didn't have. The rest is history and Dean Smith had title two.

6. 1999 (St. Petersburg): The 1999 Final 4 had a lot happening. 

Michigan State made its first Final 4 under Tom Izzo and was a program on the rise.

Duke was returning to the Final 4 for the first time since 1994 and a favorite to get Coach K his 3rd title.

UConn was in its first Final 4 under Jom Calhoun after a decade of knocking on the door.

Duke beat the Spartans in one semifinal. Up 12 at half, the Spartans wouldn't go away before Duke held on to win 68-62. The other Final 4 participant was Ohio State who lost to UConn in another 6-point game.

The final was one of the best finals in tournament history. Duke was a 9 1/2 point favorite, making this a bigger upset than Nova-GU but the truth was UConn was much better than that Nova team, entering the game 33-2 and 14-2 in league play. They were ranked number one more than Duke during the regular season.

The game was a sea-saw battle. UConn lead by 4 late when Trajan Langdon hit a 3 to cut the lead to 73-72. Khalid El-Amin hit a floater to put UConn up 3. William Avery hit two FTs to make it a 1-point game again. After El-Amin missed a shot, Langdon would get called for traveling with 5.4 seconds left and El-Amin would hit 2 more FTs for the final score. Duke had a chance but Langdon would lose the ball on the way up the court and UConn had its first title.

Next Week: The Final 5

Bracket Coming....

Just a quick note on the weekend's games.  It was pretty much a blood bath.  Of the top 38 teams in my bracket 15 lost while teams that won, such as Duke, barely got by.  It was close to about 50% of the teams in the bracket losing this weekend.  Being as such it's going to take awhile to sort this mess out today.  An updated bracket will be coming but probably not until this evening.

As a side note this year is going to have a nasty bubble of mid level Power 6 conferences that nobody outside of that school is going to want to see advance.  Who's going to get behind "underdog" 12 seeded Illinois, Miami, or Michigan State?

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Top 10 Shrugs Its Shoulders

10. Purdue- They may not win the Big 14 but they're the best team in the league. I'd hang a banner.

9. Arizona- They get the Washington teams this weekend, so barring something silly this afternoon, they'll maintain the Pac-12 lead. 

8. Virginia- Averaging 60 possessions a game! As local basketball scribe Jeff Potrykus tweeted yesterday, basketball isn't only about offense and scoring. Not sure how important scoring is but it seems somewhat important.

7. Louisville- Scored 106 against Pitt. At Pitt. Yes, I'm still stunned.

6. Baylor- Keep waiting for a tumble, just isn't happening yet. Big game at Kansas on Wednesday.

5. Kentucky- Losing at Tennessee and at home to Kansas but still a top 5 team? Yeah, it's that kind of year. Malik Monk is the go-to-guy but was a non-factor in the second half yesterday. A lot of good parts but are they lacking a true alpha dog? Monk and Bam Adebayo can be those guys, I think. Still a work in progress.

4. West Virginia- I've seen them more than any other team this year. All over the place during games. Brilliant, sloppy...can make the Final 4 or get dumped by a 15-seed.

3. Kansas- Huge win at Rupp yesterday. Bill Self might be doing his best coaching job. They could have been run off the court in the first half. Landen Lucas was in foul trouble. They didn't make a first half 3. Instead, they took apart Kentucky and won the game. Great split this week after losing at West Virginia.

2. Villanova- Played uncharacteristically sloppy down the stretch at Marquette. I've mentioned they look disinterested at times. Can't just turn focus on. Worth monitoring.

1. Gonzaga- Only team in the KenPom top 10 on both sides of the ball. Doesn't matter they're not getting tested. Those numbers can get killed when playing bad teams and having off nights. Deal with it, America.

Friday, January 27, 2017

Friday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Mt.St.Mary(NEC)/Weber St (Bsky)
Villanova (Beast) vs NCCU(MEAC)/UCIrvine (Bwest)
Baylor (B12) vs New Orleans (Sland)
Kansas vs Texas Southern (SWAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Virgina vs GaSouthern (Sbelt)
Kentucky (SEC) vs Princeton (Ivy)
North Carolina (ACC) vs Bucknell (Pat)
Arizona (Pac14) vs ND State (Summit)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Oregon vs Belmont (OVC)
Butler vs Winthrop(Bsouth)
Florida State vs Florida Gulf Coast (Asun)
Louisville vs ETSU (SoCon)
4 seed vs 13 seed
UCLA vs Vermont (Aeast)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs Monmouth(MAAC)
Wisconsin vs Valparasio (Hor)
West Virginia vs New Mexico State (WAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Purdue vs Akron (MAC)
UCLA vs VCU/Wichita State
Duke vs Texas Tech/Michigan
Maryland (B14) vs TCU
6 seed vs 11 seed
Florida vs California
St. Mary's vs Nevada (Mwest)
Creighton vs Seton Hall
SMU vs Middle Tenn St (C-USA)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Dayton (A10) vs Kansas State
Northwestern vs Michigan State
Xavier vs NC State
South Carolina vs UNC-Wilmington (Col)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Indiana vs Indiana
USC vs Illinois State (Mvalley)
Minnesota vs Arkansas
Marquette vs Iowa State


First Four Out
Illinois
Miami
Wake Forest
Clemson
Next Four Out
Utah
Georgia
Rhode Island
Pittsburgh
Also Considered
Ohio State
UT-Arlington
Houston
Mississippi
Memphis
Georgia Tech
Boise State
Penn State
LaSalle
Stanford
Alabama

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Wednesday Morning Musings Is Upset

Got an email from Brian with the message reading, "Wow" at about 11 last night. Wow, indeed. Upsets galore, sort of in the top 5. Let's dive in.

Closest to home, Marquette completed a 3-game gauntlet most fans saw as an 0-3 outcome. At Butler & Creighton, home to Villanova. Instead, they come out of it 2-1 and are now projected to finish the Big East with a 14-4 record. That's a dicey proposition at best with a lot of tossups but I'm guessing the fans will be giddy just seeing the possibility. In reality, they should be 7-1 in league play, having blown winnable games at Butler & Seton Hall.

They have the 8th best offense in the nation. They have 4 players with real shooting percentages over 64% and 3 in the top 100 of offensive rating. The defense isn't very good and will let them down but you're looking at a tournament team as of now.

Number 2 Kansas went to Morgantown and lost, giving up 85 points. In analytics world and Vegas, it simply wasn't an upset. However, it did highlight serious defensive issues for the Jayhawks. They're 41st in efficiency now and while that doesn't sound bad, that's not a legit championship contending defense. 

Kentucky's loss to Tennessee is baffling. The Vols are 42 in KenPom, so it's not shocking in the analytic sense Tennessee won at home but it still seems shocking. Maybe we look back at this one at the end of the season and say Tennessee was one of the most improved teams over the course of the year.

There were three other games that were important as well. Virginia got a nice win at Notre Dame, winning easily by 17. Louisville beat Pitt by 55 at Pitt! They scored 106 points which if you've followed them is mind boggling. Purdue got a good win at Michigan State. The Spartans are now 12-9 and 4-4 in league play. They're firmly on the bubble.

Great night. Great answer to the national press who love the committee February dog and pony show. The game doesn't need "eyeballs" when we have nights like that.

Monday, January 23, 2017

Ranking the Modern Final Fours: 15-11

15. 2008 (San Antonio): Did I rank this too low? Maybe. It was four 1-seeds that included blue bloods Kansas, UNC & UCLA. It also included an uber-talented Memphis team coached by John Calipari.

I probably ranked this here because the semi-finals were duds. We remember Billy Packer famously saying this one was over very early as Kansas boat raced UNC early. Carolina managed to cut it to 4 after falling behind by 28 to start the game. Kansas responded with a 20-7 run to put away Carolina. Memphis handled UCLA easily in the other.

The title game is forever remembered for Memphis failure at the free throw line, a bugaboo that has haunted them all year. They missed 4 of their last 5 free throws and Mario Chalmers hit a game-tying 3 with 2.1 seconds left. Memphis had decided not to foul to eliminate any chance at a tying 3. Kansas jumped Memphis in overtime and Bill Self did what Roy Williams never could at KU, bring a title back to Lawrence.

14. 2012 (New Orleans): The 2012 Final Four was one with fantastic programs and storylines. Kentucky was the clear favorite as a 1-loss squad. Standing in their way was former coach Rick Pitino and in-state rival Louisville. Kentucky withstood a Louisville team who would win the title a year later.

The other semi-final saw Ohio State and Kansas clash. Both were 2-seeds in their regions. Ohio State lead 34-25 at halftime and Kansas looked lost. The Jayhawks would respond in the 2nd half, outscoring the Buckeyes 39-28. OSU lead the majority of the 2nd half but Kansas closed on a 13-7 run to win a taut game.

The title game saw Kentucky win and show a team could win a title with one-and-done approach. The game wasn't a classic but the result helped change the approach by some coaches, including Coach K who would use the same approach only two years later.

13. 1986 (Dallas): This Final Four marked the first time Coach K would take Duke to the Final Four, making it to the title game before Denny Crum would win his second title with Louisville.

Duke was a one-seed who met fellow one-seed Kansas in one semi-final. It matched Coach K against Larry Brown. Duke advanced with a 4-point win after Kansas missed a tying jumper with a few seconds left. Tommy Amaker would get fouled with :01 left and calmly make both free throws to win the game.

The other semi saw Louisville handle 11-seed LSU.

In the final, Louisville freshman Pervis Ellison would help guide the Cardinals past Duke, 72-69. The game was back and forth with Duke taking its final lead at 65-64 before an Ellison put back and two late free throws iced the game.

12. 1994 (Charlotte): The '94 Final 4 included Duke and Arizona as 2-seeds, a 3-seed in Florida and tournament favorite and 1-seed Arkansas.

The semi-finals saw Duke overcome a 13 point second half deficit to defeat surprise Final 4 participant Florida. Arkansas downed Arizona, 81-72 in the other semi-final. Arizona lead by 6 with 8 minutes left before the Hogs famed "40 Minutes of Hell" wore down the Wildcats. 

We remember Scotty Thurman hitting a back-breaking late rainbow 3 to win the game, but the game itself was a true classic. It was a game of runs. Duke had a 13-point run to take a 10-point lead. Arkansas put the clamps down holding Duke to 9 points over an 11 minute stretch. The game was tied at 70 when Thurman hit his bomb and Arkansas was a national champion.

11. 2004 (San Antonio): In a rarity, this Final 4 was a Saturday delight with two fantastic games.

In one semi-final, 1-seed Duke took on 2-seed UConn. Duke blew an 8-point lead with 3 minutes left, not making a bucket from the field until a buzzer beating 3 by Chris Duhon that made the final, a 1-point game. 

In the other semi-final, Georgia Tech defeated Oklahoma State on a buzzer-beating layup by Will Bynum. The Cowboys had tied it on a John Lucas III 3 with :27 left. 

The final was a fairly easy UConn win over Georgia Tech. While the final was seemingly a formality, that Saturday was one of the best in recent memory.

Next Week: 10-6

Monday Morning Bracketology

Only 1 NFL game left to get in the way of the college basketball season.

1 seed vs 16 seed
Villanova (Beast) vs Mt.St.Mary(NEC)/Weber St (Bsky)
Kentucky (SEC) vs MorganSt(MEAC)/UCIrvine (Bwest)
Kansas (Big12) vs New Orleans (Sland)
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Texas Southern (SWAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Virgina vs GaSouthern (Sbelt)
Baylor  vs Princeton (Ivy)
North Carolina vs Bucknell (Pat)
Florida State (ACC) vs ND State (Summit)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Arizona (Pac14) vs Belmont (OVC)
Oregon vs Winthrop(Bsouth)
Butler vs Florida Gulf Coast (Asun)
UCLA vs Vermont (Aeast)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Louisville vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
Notre Dame vs Monmouth(MAAC)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs Valparasio (Hor)
Duke vs New Mexico State (WAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Purdue vs Akron (MAC)
Wisconsin vs Rhode Island/Wake Forest
West Virginia vs Michigan/California
Creighton vs Nevada (Mwest)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Maryland (B14) vs VCU
Florida vs Illinois State (Mvalley)
Xavier vs Middle Tenn St (C-USA)
St. Mary's vs Texas Tech
7 seed vs 10 seed
Indiana vs Kansas State
Minnesota vs Michigan State
SMU vs Pittsburgh
Dayton (A10) vs UNC-Wilmington (Col)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Northwestern vs Seton Hall
Virginia Tech vs Arkansas
South Carolina vs TCU
USC vs Iowa State
First Four Out
Marquette
Wichita State
NC State
Clemson
Next Four Out
Illinois
Georgia
Miami
Utah
Also Considered
Ohio State
UT-Arlington
Houston
Mississippi
Memphis
Georgia Tech
Boise State
Penn State
LaSalle
Stanford
Alabama